Olympic Curling 2010

Men's

Canada to win Gold -130. 13 units to win 10.

Opening Men's Draw

China (-114) 2.28 units to win 2 vs France.

 

Women's

USA to win Gold  1 unit to win 25 units

Japan to win Gold 2.5 units to win 125 units (not a typo)

Will add one more European team to the mix.

Opening Draw

 

Japan (+190) 2 units to win 3.80 vs U.S.

Germany (-120) 3 units to win 2.4 vs Russia

Great Britian (+239) 1 unit to win 2.39 units vs China

 

Write ups to follow. I have to tell you though Japan lost in an extra end two years ago, in the World Championships semi-finals to Jennifer Jones, the best curling team in the world. They played with them the whole game and also lost to them in an extra end during the round robin. They were a win away from qualifying for the 2009 women's world curling championships. At 55-1, it is crazy not to throw something on them to win it. If they play like they did in 2008, this is an incredible opporutnity. So much so, I think I am going to go back and toss a couple of more units on it. Further discussion to follow

 

 

I'm all over China on the women's side. I just think that they are far and away the best team there. I hit them for 4 units at +176 and then another 4 units at +215.

Angelus, good to have some banter here.

I do think Murdoch is a great price, and will probably play a couple of units on him to offset my Canadian bet in case they don't win it all. Martin is 6-4 all time against Murdoch, but our Scottish boy has won the last three. To this day, I still don't understand  Martin's thinking in the worlds last year tossing the rock into the boards and then watching as David made his shot to be Champs. I was quite grateful, as I had a nice bet at some great odds on Murdoch.

I think Martin has been focusing on this Olympics ever since his rock went a little too far against Trulson and lost his gold medal opportunity. I think he will go through this possibly undefeated. You watch the Brier last year or the Trials this year and once he gets up two points it is lights out. Don't get me wrong I think David could win, but after thinking long and hard on it, I can get the best curling team in the world, at just over even money and will play it.

As for the ladies, I agree with you China should win, but I have a hard time playing the favourite in Women's curling. I find them not as predictable or probably a better word would be not as consistent as the men. I look at the teams and I think you could see Cdn, Usa, Swe, Swiss, Den, China, or person winning this event.

I think Sweden has a ton of experience and knows this is their last kick at the cat. McCormick used to have some great success, but has struggled a little in the last while, but again could be a dark horse.

For my opening round selections, I am on Germany as they have a very good track record against Russia head to head in the ladies. Great Britian has Muirhead a young upstart with great potential, so I think the price is worth a gamble vs China. Also Japan is 2-2 versus McCormick, so at +190 how do you pass that up?

 

Back again soon.

Totals are now out. I will be back shorlty with a more in depth look at these, but for now must hammer my two top under teams Swiss and France.

 

China/France under 12.5 -117. 3.5 units to win 3.

Swiss/Denmark under 12.5 -108 2 units to win 1.8

Okay let's wrap up our Future plays and opening day selections.

First, I am quite excited to see some totals being offered. As a general rule of thumb,  I lean to the overs on Women's games and Unders on Men's games. I find my most successful results come from the following situations.

1) Betting unders on the Early morning draw. I said this last year during the Brier, that teams always appear to be a little more cautious in their playcalling in the early morning games. Almost like you don't want to gamble too much until you are fully awake. I made a killing at the Brier last year, betting morning unders, until they adjusted their lines during the week.

2) Good team vs Bad team theory. Again, love to bet unders. If you can find quite a differential in the talent theory, chances are the better team lays a beat down on the other, causing the losing team to pack it in early and sneak in an under.

3) Women's teams of even Caliber bet the over.

Future Play's Men's

Canada to win Gold 13 to win 10 units.                              Sweden to win Gold 2 units to win 12 units.

 

Future Play's Women's

Japan 5.7 units to win 325 units                                           Sweden 2 units to win 18 units                                                    USA  1 units to win 25 units

Opening Day Selections Men's Draw 1

GB/Swe 1.62 to win 1.5 units under 12.5

Swiss/Den 1.95 to win 1.8 units under 12.5

USA/Ger 2.2 to win 2 units under 12.5

Norway/Cdn 2.5 units to win 2 under 12.5

Men's Draw 2 thus far

China vs France 2.3 to win 2  also -1.5 have 1 unit to win 1.5.

China/France under 3.5 units to win 3

Women's Draw 1

Japan vs USA 2 units to win 3.8

Ger vs Russia 3 units to win 2.5 units. Also -1.5,  1.5 units to win 2.1.

Ger/Russ ov 12.5. 2.1 units to win 1.8.

Den/Swe ov 12.5 2.2 units to win 2

Canada/Swiss un 12.5  2 units to win 1.6 units

 

And that's a wrap.

 

Holy crap. That's a tonne of games for opening draws...I usually like to start out slow and see how it progresses from there. Don't bet many totals...usually ice conditions tell the story there.

Like both those plays Angelus. I have had some real success in this sport, so as such I don't mind playing a lot of games early until the lines get tighter. Good luck and look forward to chatting with you over the next couple of weeks.

beamjim, my book has japan women at +6700, why did they go up so much?

Erv Not sure mine is still holding at +5000. Its a long shot, but worth the gamble in my opinion.

Draw 1 Men's Results.

3-1 +2.8 units.

Added for the Women's Draw 1.

Swiss 1 unit to win 1.6 and also 1.08 units to win 1 at +1.5

Draw 2, thanks to Japan rallying and Germany continuing their dominance over Russia, we went 6-2 +9.6 units, bringing our total to 9-3 +12.4 units.

I see Pinny has no totals listed for the morning games which concerns me. I have action on the China/France game tonight as noted above and have already played some games for the Am draw of the ladies.

U.S. 2.1 units to win 2 vs Germany.

Sweden 3.42 units to win 3 vs Swiss. Norberg of Sweden is 10-2  all time vs Ott and you get just over a pick em?. Wow!

Japan 1.5 units to win 5.3 vs Canada. Way too good off odds to pass up.

So close to a huge day as China almost came back for the win against France. The under still cashed, so we lost -.25 unit, bringing the opening day to a 10-5 record and +9.35 units.

For this mornings draw, we are already on the three games mentioned last night and earlier in this thread we grabbed Great Britain vs China for a unit at +239.

Added a couple of more plays this morning.

Japan +2.5 vs Canada even. 2 units to win 2 units'

person/Cdn under 12 1.92 units to win 1.6

Swiss/Swe under 12.5 2.1 units to win 1.8

China/GB under 12.5 2.4 units to win 2.

USA/Germ over 12.5 1.5 units to win 1.4

Sticking with the morning unders, with the exception of the Germany/U.S. Game.

 

4-5 for a whopping .27 unit to the good side. I threw in the under on the Swiss game and the Canada game because of the morning draw bias I like and lost both. Little too greedy on my part, should have left them off.

Olympic total 14-10 +9.62 units

 

Men's  Draw

China over 12.5 2 units to win 2.22

China over Den 1.56 units to win 1.5

Sweden over Ger 2.92 to win 2 .

Swiss over USA 2.64 to win 2.

Great Brit -1.5 vs France 3 units to win 2.

Finally, it appears France's string of unders, have finally caught up to them as there is a total of 12 hung at -178 on the under. I'll bite and hope that Murdoch is up about 7-3 with the hammer and get's one big end to close him out. I will take 1.1 units on the over to win 1.66.

 

I don't need to wait unitl later for the Ladies games. After just talking about not being greedy, I do see some big potential tonight so I am going big on the overs. Three games that have the potential to be very evenly matched and with two totals at 12.... I will bite.

Locked in on all three dogs and the overs.

Swiss vs China 2 units to win 2.7

Over 12 6.6 units to win 5.

G.Britain vs Sweden 1.5 units to win 2.

Over 12 5.7 units to win 5.

Russia vs Den 1.5 to win 2.3

Over 12.5 5 units to win 5.15

 

Man getting back to earlier if Japan's skip had played over 54% we could have been in for a nice payday. Hope she picks up her socks soon for my future bet.

Wow, that steal by Norway, was really a steal. Hard to believe after the first few ends, that game was even going to go the distance, then all of a sudden the States came to life and were in great shape. Feel fortunate to pull that one out.

Updated record 19-11 16.78 units to the good. Lots of action already tonight, have gone out on a limb on the overs. Be back tomorrow.

good stuff! too bad my book doesn't have overs/

Will update record later, but the day was about break even. Real good afternoon draw, but my "step out" totals last night went 1-2. Boy that Great Britain skip is good and on a sidenote has incredible eyes.

Morning action

Germ/Nor under 12.5 2.7 to win 2.5 units

Can/Swe under 12.5  2.9 units to win 2

G.B/Swiss under 12.5 2.9 units to win 2.

Swiss +1.5 vs GB 1.2 units to win 1.

Den vs USA 1 unit to win 2. The States will probably win this, but this line is way too high.

very nice

cashed with denmark. good call. usa is cursed. neither team looks good at all.

Thanks Angelus.

For this afternoon.

 

China/Japan over 12.5 love this one. 3 units to win 3.12 units

Japan +1.5 vs Chna. 1.5 units to win 1.76

Den/USA over 12.5  2.5 units to win 2.5

Germany vs Canada 1.5 units to win 3.75 (value play)

Russia vs Great Brit 1.5 units to win 2.25.

 

Den -1.5 vs Usa 1 unit to win 1.42.

gl and thanks for the picks

Hey Beam,

 Who do you have in the late draw?

FC, hope to look at it in about an hour, once the little ones go to bed.

The only play I like is GB -1.5.

3.5 rocks is a lot to play Canada.

In the 2008 World's, Martin beat France by 6. In 2009, Martin beat France by 5.

I say 3.5 is a good bet.