Dees +43.5 - Somebody Stop Me Please!

OK guys, seriously, the Sunday arvo match between the Lions and the Dees is a money-winner.  We just have to find the right key and we are home free.

Going into this match, it looks like all Brisbane, however, I am not so sure.  Brisbane's effort so far this season has been pretty average.  Of course, we all know about the splendid Dees.

While I assume everyone believes Brisbane will come out of this one with a win, it is by how much which is troubling.  The line is 43.5, and while the Lions are more than capable of lighting Melbourne up, the question is, will they?

We all know the Lions are a better team, but you had better take a seat here, because what I will be writing next may shock you.

When we look at the stats, we surprisingly see a Dees side that stacks up rather competitively to their afternoon opponent.  Let's go through the numbers:

Stats FOR:

Disposals - Bris - 16th, Melb - 9th
Kicks - Bris - 16th, Melb -15th
Long Kicks - Bris -6th, Melb - 15th
Marks - Bris -16th, Melb - 11th
Clearances - Bris - 10th, Melb - 14th
Inside 50 - Bris -13th, Melb - 16th
Contested Possessions - Bris - 4th, Melb - 11th
Accuracy - Bris - 56.6%, Melb - 51.6%

Stats AGAINST:

Disposals - Bris - 13th, Melb - 15th
Kicks - Bris - 7th, Melb - 16th
Long Kicks - Bris 12th, Melb - 7th
Marks - Bris - 3rd, Melb - 16th
Clearances - Bris - 16th, Melb - 9th
Inside 50 - Bris - 13th, Melb - 15th
Contested Possessions - Bris - 10th, Melb - 13th

**BOLD indicates substantial difference.

So, it looks like the Lions hold the wood over the Demons in the long kicking and contesting possessions.  However, the Dees are in the top half of the League in defending long kicks.

The Demons are horrible at defending their opponent's kicks, but the Lions are dead last in kicking, so will they be able to take advantage of this lack of talent?  The same goes for marking.  The Dees are dead-last in stopping their opponent from marking, but the Lions are also dead-last in creating marks themselves.

The Lions, however, are in the League of Hawthorn and Sydney when it comes to stopping their opponent from marking.  Seeing that the Dees are only 11th in creating marks, one would expect the Dees not to get a lot of these this afternoon.

OK, let's look at recent results:

Round Three:

Sydney13.10 (88) def. Brisbane 10.11 (71)

Geelong16.16 (112) def. Melbourne 12.10 (82)

Round Four:

Brisbane18.16 (124) def. Port Adelaide 16.8 (104)

North Melbourne18.19 (127) def. Melbourne 11.13 (79)


Round Five:

Hawthorn19.16 (130) def. Brisbane 17.16 (118)

Carlton15.11 (101) def. Melbourne 9.14 (68)


I think it is also important to note that Brisbane have not beaten anyone this year by 44 or more points.  Of course, they haven't played the Dees yet, but they haven't blown anyone out either.

So, guys, where in the world do you see a 44+ point victory for the Lions this arvo?  Just saying that the Lions have talent mis-matches all over the pitch won't cut it.  It may be true, but will that be enough to translate into a 44+ point win?  Does the venue have anything to do with it?  Does the Gabba favor the Lions form of play?  Anyone know how the venue's aspects will translate onto the run-of-play?

OK, so, convince NOT to put my money on the Dees tonight and sweat my ass off scared as %$#@ hoping they stay competitive.

Thanks in advance.

But Matthews revealed today that only one (debutante) - if any - would play, with this afternoon's training session to determine final team selection.

Matthews indicated that midfielder Scott Harding and tall defender Lachlan Henderson would be named in the final 22.
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Old news, but the word given before selection is interesting.  Matthews had decided before selection that he wasn't going to use this match as a chance for run-outs.

Looks like Lethal is not taking the Dees lightly.  Does this selection mean pedal to the metal for four quarters?

Haven't read any of the above comments HOHas I have to look after my boy now,,,but simply don't do it! 

Simply don't do it?

I need some reasoning! 

tozer, thank you for your thoughts.  Are you a Lions' supporter?

Please keep me (us) updated on the weather.  I would like to follow what you do on this match because I can just sniff out a winner here.  Don't want to miss the train like I did with the Bulldogs last night.

Have you taken a look at the stats above, though?  Melbourne match up well, at least on paper.  Can a team with such low rankings, as the Lions, possibly put up 44+ on the Dees?

https://www.weather.com.au/qld/brisbane/detailed

No on Minnesota if this game is a play.  As I said, I smell a winner here.  I just need a go-sign from you and I'm hittin' it.  Make it a solid one though.

So what is your play binomial?  Just stay off?

Oh, and isn't Matthews the type to have his team go strong for 4 quarters without stepping off the pedal, ala Port and Geelong?  Brisbane should get up over 44, but will they stay up and over?

Good thoughts binomial,
I think Carroll has been one of their very few shining lights this year. Well played on fevola last week, even though he had 7 goals kicked on him (he only let his player get 7 possesions). An almost impossible job for a fullback on a team clearly the worst in the comp. With Whelan out it just makes the Dees backs job that much harder.

Because I think the lions midfield should get a bit of extra time and space, the delivery into the forwards will almost be impossible to stop no matter what defenders/forwards are in there, let alone somebody in form like Bradshaw and a talent like Brown.

What do you guys rate the Brisbane defensive line?  If Brisbane doesn't score as much as we'd like, the defense will have to step up.  Thoughts on the defensive line?

The thought that Melbourne has played some good competition is also looming on my mind.

There is a winner here though!  Let's get it done!

Brisbane has been missing (and will miss this game) their best running defender (Drummond), they are a much better defence with him in. I think they are ok but I don't think Melbourne's has a forward structure that can trouble the lions one bit. Their only multile goal kicker is Robertson, was held to no goals by Patfull last time, he'll get the job again.

If the lions get the score on the board there's no chance the Dees can come back... IMO

tozer, I agree that if the Lions go up by 44+, then Melbourne will not be able to fight back............................if the Lions don't let them and keep the pressure, and goals, on.

That is why I was asking about the tendency of Lethal.  I am under the impression that he will stomp you dirty if he is able to.  Am I correct on that?  You could clearly see Carlton let off at the end of last round's match, and if Brisbane do that here, the spread winner could be in doubt.

I'm with ya HoH

Rod, which side do you mean?  Are you favoring taking or giving the points.  What's your take?

Great point binomial.  I need someone to clear up what Matthews tends to do in these situations.  He only said that can will be playing one newbie, and that's it, no more.  Sounds like going in for the killshot?

Sorry HOH...I'm back, boy is asleep...time to give you me thoughts.

I have made a few comments through the 'weekly' thread.  When I cap games I look at stats, but my main focus is on attitude and motivation, and mainly the direction of each footy club at the time of each game for that particular week.

Good weather in Bris today see's the Lions having a field day with the Dee's terrible backline. They have way too many quality midfielders to take care of a Melb side which know's they can't make the finals and thus will be uncompetitive...just like the Eagles last night.  Again like mentioned in 'my' thread regarding the bad travelling sides like the Eagles, Melb would have to be considered in this situation.  However as I didn't put this game in my thread, the main reason was the high 43 point line.

The motivation for Bris is very much a factor in that 'if' they win they need to win 'well' to gain greater percentage, and with Geel only winning by 1 point on Friday (the Lion's oppoent next week), the senior players know that todays game is that much more important, as they know how fired up Geel will be after a lack luster performance a couple of nights ago.

Overall IMO Bris will score 20+ goals, thus it's just working out how many Melb could possibly score...maybe 8-10. Both sides don't really know to play alot of defence (unlike Syd & Adel), thus it is just working out how many goals each side can score, just like what I did in the Bulldogs Vs Eagles game.

All I can say is good luck    

P.S. I would take the points...

Thanks Miracle.  Those are good thoughts.  Things is, your write-up screams to take Brisbane, but your postscript switches gears.

Hahahaha...

I should just stay off this game, but I know there is a winner in here! 

OK, I do not see the Dees getting to 100 points this match.  Which means, if the Lions can score 143, they should cover for sure.

I see the Dees at around 85.  That would put Brisbane at 129 to cover.

18.13 (121) to 10.13 (73) looks about right.