accutance and roccodean
you BOTH brought up some FANTASTIC information.....
roccodean: i REALLY like your point about 65% of the lines hit large in part, because there is so much action on them that it INFLATES the Line, thus making it harder to cover... GREAT POINT !!!
accutance: I've never read the book "the Wisdom of Crowds" ... but at the end of the day, I do agree with the old adage that Vegas sets the line trying to get 50-50 Action and Cleans up / Makes their Money on the VIG. Not all NFL Lines are set because the Vegas Linesmakers truly believe that "Team A" is 7 Points Better than "Team B". BUT Vegas Linesmakers DO BELIEVE that "Team A" will draw A LOT of Action as a favorite of a TD (7pt) or More, as Opposed to if they were a, saaayyy.... 4 ---> 6pt Favorite.
Lets Keep the GREAT Information Coming Ladies n Gents!!! Lotsa GREAT Stuff Here....
accutance and roccodean
you BOTH brought up some FANTASTIC information.....
roccodean: i REALLY like your point about 65% of the lines hit large in part, because there is so much action on them that it INFLATES the Line, thus making it harder to cover... GREAT POINT !!!
accutance: I've never read the book "the Wisdom of Crowds" ... but at the end of the day, I do agree with the old adage that Vegas sets the line trying to get 50-50 Action and Cleans up / Makes their Money on the VIG. Not all NFL Lines are set because the Vegas Linesmakers truly believe that "Team A" is 7 Points Better than "Team B". BUT Vegas Linesmakers DO BELIEVE that "Team A" will draw A LOT of Action as a favorite of a TD (7pt) or More, as Opposed to if they were a, saaayyy.... 4 ---> 6pt Favorite.
Lets Keep the GREAT Information Coming Ladies n Gents!!! Lotsa GREAT Stuff Here....
I've been tracking this All Season long and after 7 Weeks, I might as well document it Publicly:
Below is the Top 3 NFL Consensus Picks, according to Covers.com "Contests" Percentages. Now let me be clear, I DO NOT track MNF Games percentages, so this is only the Top 3 Sunday Public Percentages:
Wk 1:
L: Atl 71%
L: Clev 71%
L: Az 71%
Wk 2:
L: GB 74%
L: Balt 84%
P: Dallas 81%
Wk 3:
W: Balt 83%
L: Pitt 78%
L: SD 73%
Wk 4:
W: NO 83%
L: ATL 78%
L: Buff 76%
Wk 5:
W: SD 72%
L: Indy 71%
L: NYG 69%
Wk 6:
W: Oak 73%
L: NO 72%
W: GB 70% / L: NE 70%
Wk 7:
L: GB 80%
L: Oak 74%
W: Pitt 74%
***Every Week had 3 Picks, except Wk6 which saw GB and NE tie at 70%***
Its Overall Record is 15-6-1 YTD
****Interpret this information however you want, but it must mean "something" that about 75% of the Top 3 Covers Contest Consensus Picks are Losers
Not that it Matters AT ALL, but I almost ALWAYS begin Tracking these Percentages on Tuesday and then I Re-Visit them again on Saturday Night / Sunday Morning....
I'm BORED so I decided to Post these Week 8 Consensus Picks. I haven't Narrowed it down to the Top 3 YET, but as of Tuesday evening....Here's the Top 5 :
Covers.com Consensus Picks (%):
New Orleans @ 82%
Buffalo @ 77%
New York Giants @ 73%
New England @ 72%
Detroit @ 70%
******I will Narrow this down to the Top 3 Teams by the end of the Week... Let it be known that I DO NOT "always" play these teams, I merely track them for statistical clarification. I was going to wait until after Wk8 and then begin actually Betting on these, but the statistics were even MORE overwhelming than I thought, so I began to Bet on these a few weeks ago.
I've been tracking this All Season long and after 7 Weeks, I might as well document it Publicly:
Below is the Top 3 NFL Consensus Picks, according to Covers.com "Contests" Percentages. Now let me be clear, I DO NOT track MNF Games percentages, so this is only the Top 3 Sunday Public Percentages:
Wk 1:
L: Atl 71%
L: Clev 71%
L: Az 71%
Wk 2:
L: GB 74%
L: Balt 84%
P: Dallas 81%
Wk 3:
W: Balt 83%
L: Pitt 78%
L: SD 73%
Wk 4:
W: NO 83%
L: ATL 78%
L: Buff 76%
Wk 5:
W: SD 72%
L: Indy 71%
L: NYG 69%
Wk 6:
W: Oak 73%
L: NO 72%
W: GB 70% / L: NE 70%
Wk 7:
L: GB 80%
L: Oak 74%
W: Pitt 74%
***Every Week had 3 Picks, except Wk6 which saw GB and NE tie at 70%***
Its Overall Record is 15-6-1 YTD
****Interpret this information however you want, but it must mean "something" that about 75% of the Top 3 Covers Contest Consensus Picks are Losers
Not that it Matters AT ALL, but I almost ALWAYS begin Tracking these Percentages on Tuesday and then I Re-Visit them again on Saturday Night / Sunday Morning....
I'm BORED so I decided to Post these Week 8 Consensus Picks. I haven't Narrowed it down to the Top 3 YET, but as of Tuesday evening....Here's the Top 5 :
Covers.com Consensus Picks (%):
New Orleans @ 82%
Buffalo @ 77%
New York Giants @ 73%
New England @ 72%
Detroit @ 70%
******I will Narrow this down to the Top 3 Teams by the end of the Week... Let it be known that I DO NOT "always" play these teams, I merely track them for statistical clarification. I was going to wait until after Wk8 and then begin actually Betting on these, but the statistics were even MORE overwhelming than I thought, so I began to Bet on these a few weeks ago.
Those consensus picks are for the contests, meaning 99% of them have no money on those picks, they have public favorite mentality and the picks lose majority of the time. They do it for fun. Probably best to fade them.
Like when the college bowls start in december. ESPN scrolls the america's vote on the bottom of screen for each bowl. If the pick is 70% OR HIGHER FOR THE FAVORITE, I would suggest betting the dog most everytime. I watched it the last 2 years and you woulda cleaned up! Don't have records on it, but it's worth watching.
I did side with oklahoma over Uconn thou! Good bet!
Those consensus picks are for the contests, meaning 99% of them have no money on those picks, they have public favorite mentality and the picks lose majority of the time. They do it for fun. Probably best to fade them.
Like when the college bowls start in december. ESPN scrolls the america's vote on the bottom of screen for each bowl. If the pick is 70% OR HIGHER FOR THE FAVORITE, I would suggest betting the dog most everytime. I watched it the last 2 years and you woulda cleaned up! Don't have records on it, but it's worth watching.
I did side with oklahoma over Uconn thou! Good bet!
This has been a great discussion. IMO, there's definitely a concept of "sharp" v "square" play.
I'd draw an analogy to hold 'em poker. Let's say you're holding A,A and your opponent holds 7,2. You have an overwhelming statistical advantage. So, you bet big. Your opponent calls.
But it's not a 100% advantage. The flop may be 7, 2, 9 and your opponent has suddenly has 2 pairs. If the next 2 cards don't help you, you'll lose.
But your bet was still a "sharp" bet. And your opponent's was a "square" bet. But you still lost.
Similarly, I think there's a concept of that with sports betting. They'll always be random events that influences an event. Take the recent ND / USC game as an example. ND fumbles in the USC red zone that a USC defender picks up and runs for a USC TD. ND might've recovered the fumble or not ruled a lateral. USC might not have run it for a TD, etc., etc.
But eventually the odds catch up to you. Keep playing 72 offsuit against AA and you'll hemorrage $$. But, unlike poker, there's no neat statistical chart for sports betting that shows you whether you made a sharp or square pick.
This has been a great discussion. IMO, there's definitely a concept of "sharp" v "square" play.
I'd draw an analogy to hold 'em poker. Let's say you're holding A,A and your opponent holds 7,2. You have an overwhelming statistical advantage. So, you bet big. Your opponent calls.
But it's not a 100% advantage. The flop may be 7, 2, 9 and your opponent has suddenly has 2 pairs. If the next 2 cards don't help you, you'll lose.
But your bet was still a "sharp" bet. And your opponent's was a "square" bet. But you still lost.
Similarly, I think there's a concept of that with sports betting. They'll always be random events that influences an event. Take the recent ND / USC game as an example. ND fumbles in the USC red zone that a USC defender picks up and runs for a USC TD. ND might've recovered the fumble or not ruled a lateral. USC might not have run it for a TD, etc., etc.
But eventually the odds catch up to you. Keep playing 72 offsuit against AA and you'll hemorrage $$. But, unlike poker, there's no neat statistical chart for sports betting that shows you whether you made a sharp or square pick.
so you believe its possible to be "sharp", yet still LOSE your wager??? ....im not arguing, im just discussing
I absolutely think that's the case. When I hear the word "sharp" I really don't picture someone who is a good handicapper... that is someone who is good at picking sides. I think of someone who is good at betting lines. It is possible to be a very good handicapper but not be "sharp" because you consistently get bad lines.
Everybody loses games. A sharp bettor is one who wins those games here and there by a point or a hook where others who have the same side lose. They guy who pushes when everyone else loses. The guy who gives himself an edge. Over a lifetime of betting this makes all the difference.
Obviously you need to be a good handicapper and usually be on the right team in order to make money. But line shopping, finding low-vig bets, and knowing when to pull the trigger is what makes you sharp.
so you believe its possible to be "sharp", yet still LOSE your wager??? ....im not arguing, im just discussing
I absolutely think that's the case. When I hear the word "sharp" I really don't picture someone who is a good handicapper... that is someone who is good at picking sides. I think of someone who is good at betting lines. It is possible to be a very good handicapper but not be "sharp" because you consistently get bad lines.
Everybody loses games. A sharp bettor is one who wins those games here and there by a point or a hook where others who have the same side lose. They guy who pushes when everyone else loses. The guy who gives himself an edge. Over a lifetime of betting this makes all the difference.
Obviously you need to be a good handicapper and usually be on the right team in order to make money. But line shopping, finding low-vig bets, and knowing when to pull the trigger is what makes you sharp.
accutance: ... but at the end of the day, I do agree with the old adage that Vegas sets the line trying to get 50-50 Action and Cleans up / Makes their Money on the VIG.
accutance: ... but at the end of the day, I do agree with the old adage that Vegas sets the line trying to get 50-50 Action and Cleans up / Makes their Money on the VIG.
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