so you believe its possible to be "sharp", yet still LOSE your wager??? ....im not arguing, im just discussing
Absolutely possible. Sounds like you don't understand the concept of variance?
so you believe its possible to be "sharp", yet still LOSE your wager??? ....im not arguing, im just discussing
so you believe its possible to be "sharp", yet still LOSE your wager??? ....im not arguing, im just discussing
.... I think we would all be HELPING one another if we could share our sources. Where do you get your "PUBLIC Percentages" from????
^^^This. We're all in this together.
.... I think we would all be HELPING one another if we could share our sources. Where do you get your "PUBLIC Percentages" from????
^^^This. We're all in this together.
As i blatantly stated.... "im NOT arguing, im just discussing" in other words, Im NOT disagreeing with him, I was simply asking that question to further the conversation and create a discussion (hence me saying "im just discussing")..... So in other words, I agree with the original poster, I just asked that question to try and get an indepth explanation out of him..... I have been on the "Sharp" Side (correct side) and Lost MANY MANY different times!!!
..... But I'd really like you to explain your definition of the Term "VARIANCE", im not exactly sure what context youre using it in... Care to elaborate???
FYI.... Most of, if not ALL of the Questions I've asked in this Thread were not due to my "Ignorance" of the topic, these Questions are being asked from the Point of View of the Completely Un-Educated Bettor. By asking these questions that a lot of the Newbies (or Veterans for that matter!) feel "dumb" asking, it'll help us establish an educated discussion and create a VERY informative Thread!!! Lets keep it going.....
As i blatantly stated.... "im NOT arguing, im just discussing" in other words, Im NOT disagreeing with him, I was simply asking that question to further the conversation and create a discussion (hence me saying "im just discussing")..... So in other words, I agree with the original poster, I just asked that question to try and get an indepth explanation out of him..... I have been on the "Sharp" Side (correct side) and Lost MANY MANY different times!!!
..... But I'd really like you to explain your definition of the Term "VARIANCE", im not exactly sure what context youre using it in... Care to elaborate???
FYI.... Most of, if not ALL of the Questions I've asked in this Thread were not due to my "Ignorance" of the topic, these Questions are being asked from the Point of View of the Completely Un-Educated Bettor. By asking these questions that a lot of the Newbies (or Veterans for that matter!) feel "dumb" asking, it'll help us establish an educated discussion and create a VERY informative Thread!!! Lets keep it going.....
i have a lot of respect for your opinion kaponofor3, could you please elaborate as to WHY you should never rely on "Public percentages"???
i have a lot of respect for your opinion kaponofor3, could you please elaborate as to WHY you should never rely on "Public percentages"???
Unfortunately fcphilli, there is NO exact science to identify the "GIFT Lines" from the "TRAP Lines".... They Look IDENTICAL and both 'appear' to be EASY Bets!
Read through this Thread as Best you can and TAKE NOTES. Apply these Notes the next time youre handicapping a Game.
Contrary to what A LOT of people are suggesting, the direction that the betting "Public" is going, can often make it 'Easier' (NOT EASY.... just easiER) to identify a "TRAP Game". If 75% or More of the "Public" is on ONE SIDE, chances are, you need to re-evaluate this Play and try to create an argument for the "other side". Lines are NOT put out to Lose Money... But contrary to Conspiracy Theorists, Vegas Does NOT control games and they Do NOT decide the outcome of games, THEREFORE, Games are decided on Sundays (when Teams Play!), NOT Mondays (when Lines Come Out!).
As a Rule of Thumb... if a Line seems "Too Good to be True" - it usually is!!!
Unfortunately fcphilli, there is NO exact science to identify the "GIFT Lines" from the "TRAP Lines".... They Look IDENTICAL and both 'appear' to be EASY Bets!
Read through this Thread as Best you can and TAKE NOTES. Apply these Notes the next time youre handicapping a Game.
Contrary to what A LOT of people are suggesting, the direction that the betting "Public" is going, can often make it 'Easier' (NOT EASY.... just easiER) to identify a "TRAP Game". If 75% or More of the "Public" is on ONE SIDE, chances are, you need to re-evaluate this Play and try to create an argument for the "other side". Lines are NOT put out to Lose Money... But contrary to Conspiracy Theorists, Vegas Does NOT control games and they Do NOT decide the outcome of games, THEREFORE, Games are decided on Sundays (when Teams Play!), NOT Mondays (when Lines Come Out!).
As a Rule of Thumb... if a Line seems "Too Good to be True" - it usually is!!!
I was on the Cardinals BIG myself actually!!
Pitt had played VERY POORLY on the Road so far this season, going 1-2 SU and their lone WiN was a squeaked-out WiN vs a Kerry Collins-led Colts team
I really thought Arizona had a chance to WiN this game outright but they just SUCKED and laid a complete EGG!!! Luckily I Teased them up to +14.5, which ALMOST didnt Cover, bc towards the end, Pitt ALMOST got a chance to lay-up a FG but just put some Knees on it.... Thank God!
I think we were trying to be "Sharp" on Arizona.... but it didnt work! lol
I was on the Cardinals BIG myself actually!!
Pitt had played VERY POORLY on the Road so far this season, going 1-2 SU and their lone WiN was a squeaked-out WiN vs a Kerry Collins-led Colts team
I really thought Arizona had a chance to WiN this game outright but they just SUCKED and laid a complete EGG!!! Luckily I Teased them up to +14.5, which ALMOST didnt Cover, bc towards the end, Pitt ALMOST got a chance to lay-up a FG but just put some Knees on it.... Thank God!
I think we were trying to be "Sharp" on Arizona.... but it didnt work! lol
FYI.... Most of, if not ALL of the Questions I've asked in this Thread were not due to my "Ignorance" of the topic, these Questions are being asked from the Point of View of the Completely Un-Educated Bettor. By asking these questions that a lot of the Newbies (or Veterans for that matter!) feel "dumb" asking, it'll help us establish an educated discussion and create a VERY informative Thread!!! Lets keep it going.....
FYI.... Most of, if not ALL of the Questions I've asked in this Thread were not due to my "Ignorance" of the topic, these Questions are being asked from the Point of View of the Completely Un-Educated Bettor. By asking these questions that a lot of the Newbies (or Veterans for that matter!) feel "dumb" asking, it'll help us establish an educated discussion and create a VERY informative Thread!!! Lets keep it going.....
Unfortunately fcphilli, there is NO exact science to identify the "GIFT Lines" from the "TRAP Lines".... They Look IDENTICAL and both 'appear' to be EASY Bets!
Read through this Thread as Best you can and TAKE NOTES. Apply these Notes the next time youre handicapping a Game.
Contrary to what A LOT of people are suggesting, the direction that the betting "Public" is going, can often make it 'Easier' (NOT EASY.... just easiER) to identify a "TRAP Game". If 75% or More of the "Public" is on ONE SIDE, chances are, you need to re-evaluate this Play and try to create an argument for the "other side". Lines are NOT put out to Lose Money... But contrary to Conspiracy Theorists, Vegas Does NOT control games and they Do NOT decide the outcome of games, THEREFORE, Games are decided on Sundays (when Teams Play!), NOT Mondays (when Lines Come Out!).
As a Rule of Thumb... if a Line seems "Too Good to be True" - it usually is!!!
Unfortunately fcphilli, there is NO exact science to identify the "GIFT Lines" from the "TRAP Lines".... They Look IDENTICAL and both 'appear' to be EASY Bets!
Read through this Thread as Best you can and TAKE NOTES. Apply these Notes the next time youre handicapping a Game.
Contrary to what A LOT of people are suggesting, the direction that the betting "Public" is going, can often make it 'Easier' (NOT EASY.... just easiER) to identify a "TRAP Game". If 75% or More of the "Public" is on ONE SIDE, chances are, you need to re-evaluate this Play and try to create an argument for the "other side". Lines are NOT put out to Lose Money... But contrary to Conspiracy Theorists, Vegas Does NOT control games and they Do NOT decide the outcome of games, THEREFORE, Games are decided on Sundays (when Teams Play!), NOT Mondays (when Lines Come Out!).
As a Rule of Thumb... if a Line seems "Too Good to be True" - it usually is!!!
AWESOME Info Biscuit!!!
Thanks for Validating my Methods with an indepth explanation!
AWESOME Info Biscuit!!!
Thanks for Validating my Methods with an indepth explanation!
You can use your methods and ill use mine.... At the end of the day, this thread has stimulated some critical thinking and i believe its helped the readers, myself included..... Plus, I'm not criticizing you so id appreciate it if you didnt criticize me
You can use your methods and ill use mine.... At the end of the day, this thread has stimulated some critical thinking and i believe its helped the readers, myself included..... Plus, I'm not criticizing you so id appreciate it if you didnt criticize me
The most compelling argument for Jacksonville that I read lastnight was people pointing out the fact that MOST Teasers had their Final Leg as B'more -4 or PK, and that anywhere from 75-80% of the public was on Baltimore lastnight. You had the Leagues WORST Offense Going up against the Leagues BEST Defense. Baltimore was Averaging Almost 30 Pts per Game... What exactly "pointed to" Jacksonville as the Best Play??? I know this brings you to your 2nd Point of "Dont Bet Against Home Dogs", and i Strongly agree with this, but even in this Spot, Jacksonville did NOT look like a LIVE Homedog lastnight... Until Kickoff !!
I avoided Hammering Baltimore in Wk2 when they visited Tennessee for the EXACT Reasoning that I stated above; EVERY Teaser would have Tennessee at PK and as a result, Baltimore would not only NOT Cover the Spread, theyd Lose Outright... and they did Lose SU. I failed to identify this as the EXACT SAME spot, in fact I heard an interview from Ray Rice where he said the Ravens "learned from that game" (Wk2 @ Titans) and how he claimed that the Ravens wouldnt have another Let-Down like that... Well he was DEAD WRONG and so was I !!!
Im not saying that I "Disagree" with you, I'm just saying that the most compelling argument for Jacksonville lastnight was the Publics Money Riding on Baltimore at an 80% Clip, with a SHITLOAD of Teasers Relying on a Ravens SU Win..... But I failed to identify this crucial information until it was too late
The most compelling argument for Jacksonville that I read lastnight was people pointing out the fact that MOST Teasers had their Final Leg as B'more -4 or PK, and that anywhere from 75-80% of the public was on Baltimore lastnight. You had the Leagues WORST Offense Going up against the Leagues BEST Defense. Baltimore was Averaging Almost 30 Pts per Game... What exactly "pointed to" Jacksonville as the Best Play??? I know this brings you to your 2nd Point of "Dont Bet Against Home Dogs", and i Strongly agree with this, but even in this Spot, Jacksonville did NOT look like a LIVE Homedog lastnight... Until Kickoff !!
I avoided Hammering Baltimore in Wk2 when they visited Tennessee for the EXACT Reasoning that I stated above; EVERY Teaser would have Tennessee at PK and as a result, Baltimore would not only NOT Cover the Spread, theyd Lose Outright... and they did Lose SU. I failed to identify this as the EXACT SAME spot, in fact I heard an interview from Ray Rice where he said the Ravens "learned from that game" (Wk2 @ Titans) and how he claimed that the Ravens wouldnt have another Let-Down like that... Well he was DEAD WRONG and so was I !!!
Im not saying that I "Disagree" with you, I'm just saying that the most compelling argument for Jacksonville lastnight was the Publics Money Riding on Baltimore at an 80% Clip, with a SHITLOAD of Teasers Relying on a Ravens SU Win..... But I failed to identify this crucial information until it was too late
I've been tracking this All Season long and after 7 Weeks, I might as well document it Publicly:
Below is the Top 3 NFL Consensus Picks, according to Covers.com "Contests" Percentages. Now let me be clear, I DO NOT track MNF Games percentages, so this is only the Top 3 Sunday Public Percentages:
Wk 1:
L: Atl 71%
L: Clev 71%
L: Az 71%
Wk 2:
L: GB 74%
L: Balt 84%
P: Dallas 81%
Wk 3:
W: Balt 83%
L: Pitt 78%
L: SD 73%
Wk 4:
W: NO 83%
L: ATL 78%
L: Buff 76%
Wk 5:
W: SD 72%
L: Indy 71%
L: NYG 69%
Wk 6:
W: Oak 73%
L: NO 72%
W: GB 70% / L: NE 70%
Wk 7:
L: GB 80%
L: Oak 74%
W: Pitt 74%
***Every Week had 3 Picks, except Wk6 which saw GB and NE tie at 70%***
Its Overall Record is 15-6-1 YTD
****Interpret this information however you want, but it must mean "something" that about 75% of the Top 3 Covers Contest Consensus Picks are Losers
I've been tracking this All Season long and after 7 Weeks, I might as well document it Publicly:
Below is the Top 3 NFL Consensus Picks, according to Covers.com "Contests" Percentages. Now let me be clear, I DO NOT track MNF Games percentages, so this is only the Top 3 Sunday Public Percentages:
Wk 1:
L: Atl 71%
L: Clev 71%
L: Az 71%
Wk 2:
L: GB 74%
L: Balt 84%
P: Dallas 81%
Wk 3:
W: Balt 83%
L: Pitt 78%
L: SD 73%
Wk 4:
W: NO 83%
L: ATL 78%
L: Buff 76%
Wk 5:
W: SD 72%
L: Indy 71%
L: NYG 69%
Wk 6:
W: Oak 73%
L: NO 72%
W: GB 70% / L: NE 70%
Wk 7:
L: GB 80%
L: Oak 74%
W: Pitt 74%
***Every Week had 3 Picks, except Wk6 which saw GB and NE tie at 70%***
Its Overall Record is 15-6-1 YTD
****Interpret this information however you want, but it must mean "something" that about 75% of the Top 3 Covers Contest Consensus Picks are Losers
You can use your methods and ill use mine.... At the end of the day, this thread has stimulated some critical thinking and i believe its helped the readers, myself included..... Plus, I'm not criticizing you so id appreciate it if you didnt criticize me
I was'nt being critical of you man I was just saying sometimes we can be our own worst enemies when we're on losing streaks...psyching ourselves out rather than focusing on WHY we lay the bets. Sorry you took it the wrong way..good luck the rest of the season...
You can use your methods and ill use mine.... At the end of the day, this thread has stimulated some critical thinking and i believe its helped the readers, myself included..... Plus, I'm not criticizing you so id appreciate it if you didnt criticize me
I was'nt being critical of you man I was just saying sometimes we can be our own worst enemies when we're on losing streaks...psyching ourselves out rather than focusing on WHY we lay the bets. Sorry you took it the wrong way..good luck the rest of the season...
I was'nt being critical of you man I was just saying sometimes we can be our own worst enemies when we're on losing streaks...psyching ourselves out rather than focusing on WHY we lay the bets. Sorry you took it the wrong way..good luck the rest of the season...
You're right man, my bad, i did take it the wrong way... I see that your intentions were good... And ya know what? Youre RIGHT!!
.... Sometimes we do Overthink things, and begin to PRESS when were losing. But LUCKILY for me, in this particular case, im not in a losing streak and im not pressing! lol
Just hearing peoples responses (mostly New members), this thread is extremely helpful and provides a VERY interesting POV (point of view) to use when deciding who to wager on.
I like what you had to say though, your point about the Referees and the Rules Changing in order to Help PROTECT the Players. Theres NO Question that this is true! There isnt a doubt in my mind that the Rules changing have created MORE Points being scored and the Rules have been altered to Protect the Players... So how do you incorporate this into Handicapping??? You mentioned that it Helps the OVER, which I agree with, as Penalties help Sustain Drives ALL the Time... But you also said you believe it Helps Dogs of 5.5 or More, How So???
You also said that your "Method" is MORE pertinent than thinking as a "Square" or a "Sharp", but heres the thing.... The concept of thinking "Square" or "Sharp" is VERY well DEFINED by Vanzack on Page 1. As he said, its a 'mythical' term, in other words, it doesnt exist really, its COMPLETELY mental and made up inside of our minds. You could make the argument that "Sharp" is Fading the Public and that "Square" is Betting WITH the Public, its ALL a Point of View... But at the end of the Day "Squares" and "Sharps" are as mythical as Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny
I was'nt being critical of you man I was just saying sometimes we can be our own worst enemies when we're on losing streaks...psyching ourselves out rather than focusing on WHY we lay the bets. Sorry you took it the wrong way..good luck the rest of the season...
You're right man, my bad, i did take it the wrong way... I see that your intentions were good... And ya know what? Youre RIGHT!!
.... Sometimes we do Overthink things, and begin to PRESS when were losing. But LUCKILY for me, in this particular case, im not in a losing streak and im not pressing! lol
Just hearing peoples responses (mostly New members), this thread is extremely helpful and provides a VERY interesting POV (point of view) to use when deciding who to wager on.
I like what you had to say though, your point about the Referees and the Rules Changing in order to Help PROTECT the Players. Theres NO Question that this is true! There isnt a doubt in my mind that the Rules changing have created MORE Points being scored and the Rules have been altered to Protect the Players... So how do you incorporate this into Handicapping??? You mentioned that it Helps the OVER, which I agree with, as Penalties help Sustain Drives ALL the Time... But you also said you believe it Helps Dogs of 5.5 or More, How So???
You also said that your "Method" is MORE pertinent than thinking as a "Square" or a "Sharp", but heres the thing.... The concept of thinking "Square" or "Sharp" is VERY well DEFINED by Vanzack on Page 1. As he said, its a 'mythical' term, in other words, it doesnt exist really, its COMPLETELY mental and made up inside of our minds. You could make the argument that "Sharp" is Fading the Public and that "Square" is Betting WITH the Public, its ALL a Point of View... But at the end of the Day "Squares" and "Sharps" are as mythical as Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny
.....in all honesty Pho_Hawk, I started this thread to Help out the New Members and I'm VERY Happy that you found it useful !!!
My BIGGEST Suggestion for NEW Users is to READ this Entire Thread, take NOTES, and Apply these Methods nexttime you Handicap a Game! There is A LOT of SOLID Information in this Thread that you can learn from, dont just browse through it, READ it Thoroughly and Apply it.... DO NOT SOLELY use these Methods, but just simply Add them to your current repertoire. There is NO single Method to Handicap, there is NO single Rule, there is NO single Trend, there is NO single System, BUT there are MANY Techniques and Strategies that when COMBINED - Can be LETHAL and VERY Dangerous if Combined Correctly!!!
GOD Bless and Goodluck Pho_Hawk!!!!
.....in all honesty Pho_Hawk, I started this thread to Help out the New Members and I'm VERY Happy that you found it useful !!!
My BIGGEST Suggestion for NEW Users is to READ this Entire Thread, take NOTES, and Apply these Methods nexttime you Handicap a Game! There is A LOT of SOLID Information in this Thread that you can learn from, dont just browse through it, READ it Thoroughly and Apply it.... DO NOT SOLELY use these Methods, but just simply Add them to your current repertoire. There is NO single Method to Handicap, there is NO single Rule, there is NO single Trend, there is NO single System, BUT there are MANY Techniques and Strategies that when COMBINED - Can be LETHAL and VERY Dangerous if Combined Correctly!!!
GOD Bless and Goodluck Pho_Hawk!!!!
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