When to be Square and When to be Sharp???

They are very highly correlated.

And the longer the time frame, the more correlated they are.

A short term winner might not be beating the line, but a longterm winner most certainly is.

PS - a line is a combination of spread and price.  Reducing EITHER of those is a way to beat a line.  It is not just the spread, but the price too - the COMBINATION of the two is important.  SO betting at reduced juice is a great start to beating closing lines.

GREAT Stuff vanzack... thats the kind of response i was hoping to get... As for the 10-5%, i originally typed out 5% n then backtracked but youre 100% right on ur odds....

That tidbit about pinnacle only tracking people who beat the line is extremely interesting... definitely makes you think that the term "sharp" might have some levity... Let me ask you though, what exactly does pinnacle digest this information for? its not like they can control where the "sharps" action goes (and by "sharps", im referring to the ppl who they think consistently 'beat the line')... does pinnacle move the line if a shitload of money comes in from the 'sharps' on one play??? im just curious what kind of advantage the books can gather by tracking ppl who consistently 'beat the line'....

thx again guys, i love the feedback 

It is all in how they react to the wagering of the profiled players.

They would react very differently to the same amount bet by 2 guys who have different profiles.  In other words, if 2 guys both bet 10K on the same game, the line would be much more sensitive to move to the guy who is profiled to beat the line.

Along those same lines, a guy who consistently beats the line who bets 1k might move a line more than a guy who bets 20k but doesnt beat the line.

 

I agree what you stated above for 'value' bettors that are looking for the best line possible. This is one excellent method for good cappers. This means increase your chance of winning and maximize your profit. Beating the line, however, mean nothing for bad/average cappers - they might lose less but they still lose.

There are cappers that use 'reading the line' as part of their capping. I do that from time to time for *hot* game because I respect what Vegas is thinking. I don't believe in fix game but I believe in 'trap' game. Take the CHI/NE game for example. I was tempted to take CHI but the line looks confusing so I lay off.

We can talk on and on about 'sharp' and 'square'. At the end of the day, the only sharp in my book is the one winning consistently month to month (not day to day). Betting is an art (or a tough job) that requires lots and lots of experience, hard work, courage and perseverance.

Once again, the highest known correlation to winning is consistently beating the line.

You are a Sharp when you win, a square when you lose.  Vegas lines are meant to lean you a certain way, if you can figure which way, you will be brilliant and win consistently.  Take NY vs MN on MNF for sample.  line was -4 after shift to neutral field with the Brett uncertain to start.  All the ESPN analysts were talking about the poor Giants and the brutal travel conditions they were facing on the road.  To me I banked on the fact Bret was not going to play due to injury and the Giants would come to play because Philly had won on Sunday night.  Sure enough Eli played like crap but Yikes were even crappier with back-up qb.  Strong running game and defense ruled the day.  Sometimes I lose like when Balt. failed against Pitt because Polomalu made a great play or times I have lost giving 3 and winning by 2.  Philly versus Colts and Indy versus TN and MI versus Illinois 67-65.  but through your losses you can learn make better judgments next time when I won with WS over MI or Philly over NYG, etc.  This is gambling so only good money-management and discipline will get you through.  Everyone loses but profit from your errors and make better choices and be satisfied with your wins no matter how small.  Who would have figured that SF would win the WS?  not me but at least I won a futures bet the year before on the Yankees to win it all!!  We will go through ups and downs in all seasons, in all sports.  I try everything like NBA, MMA, college and Pro football, college bb, but I stay in my budget.  I read and study and listen and watch and learn as best as I can and make my choice.  Sometimes I win, sometimes I lose.  Sometimes you will have tears, only God knows whether they will tears of joy or tears of sorrow!!!!!

[Quote: Originally Posted by vanzack]

Have you noticed yourself fading the red jerseys when you should be hammering the red jerseys and hammering the blue jerseys when you should have faded the blue jerseys?

You can insert any descriptor in place of the word public in your statement above and it would make as much sense.

Do you notice that you have been successful betting against brunette referees but terrible when a blonde is doing the game?  Why not? 

Im not being an ass, just trying to make you see that unless something is related to causation you should ignore it as noise. 

 

I usually say if a bet makes you nervous before the game even starts it usually is a good bet. However i was really nevous betting carolina vs atalta and was sick afterwords.

It should be almost a given that if you are beating the line, you are taking some money from the books, and thefore you are a 'sharp'er gambler.

But I wasnt necessarily conceding that. I should be, its a logical argument and one I agree with you on. But my post was more of a ploy for me to paint the sharp as a myth - Cover's very own version of the unicorn.

Intelligent conversation with a nice back-and-forth. Its damn refreshing at Covers.

Nothing in gambling is this black and white. Inherently, your above statement would lead me to believe that the people who are always referred to as sharps would never lose - or else you couldnt call them sharps.

Disclaimer - I didnt read you whole post. Without paragraphs it was tough. So sorry if this doesnt apply.

10 cent lines

in your book sharps are ones who consistently win....I agree.  They are having success because they are consistently beating and moving the # before public action comes into play.

I'm not really assuming anything when I say a sharp is someone who is taking team X -3 and the public is playing the same side  -3.5 on a regular basis throughout the year.  In the long run the sharp is beating the line and winning more consistently where the square is betting into bad lines like you say, and while not necessarily losing, he will not win as consistently as the sharp.

I agree this is nonsense to the casual gambler but don't discount what sharp/wise guy action is and how it affects the lines each and every week.  We see lines open and quickly move 2 points....this isn't public $$ moving these opening lines and while they are not always right w/ their leans the sharps often get  better value on their action.

It's pretty safe to say 99.9% of the people here are not sharps but is it not everyone's goal to think more like them and achieve the same consistent success by trying to beat the # each and every week?  Nothing pisses me off more then not acting on a strong initial lean on a side to watch that line go the way I think it will go in the next 24 hrs.  Sharps don't miss these opportunities.  While not always right, they win consistently over the long haul which should be everyone's goal.

I saw the Giants open at -2.5 -110 and completely missed the opportunity to jump on it for stupid reasons.  While -2.5 is still available at one of my books it's -130 and that's a bad play.   So what I'll do is wait for 5% juice fridays and hopefully see -3  -105 to gain some value back on this play.  This is what I mean...sharps got their action at -2.5 -110. In the long run it makes the difference on winning and winning more!  

keep it simple - 

Vanzacks theory isnt really wrong, its just flawed. "Beating the line" according to him is betting before a line moves. The thing is, it doesnt always move because of "sharp" money or move in their favor. Fact is, most games in the NFL dont move more than 1 point (unless major injury or weather). Take the NE/Chi game....line opened at 42ish and was pushed down to 37 by gametime....game went over.

If you've been doing this long enough, you dont need to know what percentage of people are on a certain side because you can look at the line and tell where the majority of the money is going to go. Most games get 60/40 action where of course the favorite gets more love. However, there are certain games (in all sports) that look too good to be true. Those are your "gift" lines. Your job is to determine wether you are wrong about the game and the linesmakers have shown you the light by making you dig deeper, or you are smarter than most and are going with your original thought.

There arent many professional gamblers. Some on here claim to do it and thats a fine stroy. However, there are no easy answers and all games stand on their own. All games have angles and trends for both teams.

The "public" usually takes the favorite. So, by betting more dogs (and on the ML), you should not only win a bit more bets than you used to, but the +$ will help your bankroll....

Bottomline. Focus on each game without reading too much about it or knowing what the line is or who the "public" is on. If you can pick the straight up winner, the line wont matter most of the time.

 

GL bro

those percentages are  absolute bs.do  you  honestly  believe  sportsbooks would release  info  that  would  possibly help  the bettor.there are no  gift  lines  in  the  nfl.the  lines  are  very  tight.show  me  a guy  who   hits  60% consistently  and  ill  blow  you.

Well.... there lots of good points on this thread....  The one thing I've found in all my years is money management is the key to a successful season... I've picked big winning %'s for a year... but if I don't hit my favorites than I'm behind the 8ball.  More $$ on less games... Sharp

Good stuff fellas.

Vanzack great stuff.  Just one counter-as for what u said about Pinnacle not caring if you win $1 mil and don't blink an eye, you can forget about that theory.  They care about how much $ the person's getting.  If someone's making $1 mil, u can pretty much bank on that person being told to take a hike from Pinnacle, or getting a betting limit lower than their stated max.

Im curious.....who is betting on SEA for the line to stay on 6 when I think the majority of bettors is on ATL?

things that make you go...hmmmm

I think the secret here is to find out when the sharp money is out weighing the square money..ie bears last week...sharp money was so heavy on bears the books were happy at a pats cover and so were the squares...so in a perfect world talking to someone who worked at a book would be ideal...

well i think its also important to distinguish between the amount of bets being on one side, as opposed to the amount of money being bet on one side... obviously if 10,000 people bet on one game, 8,000 on one side and 2,000 on the other, if the 8,000 only bet $10 per bet, while the other side has 10 guys bet $10,000 and the rest bet 1,000... the "percentages" might show 80% on the "Public" Play, while the majority of the cash is on the "other" team.... But the "consensus" picks tend to be skewed because of mis-calculations/lacks of DETAILED information, just like this....

 

if someone on here can provide some help, i'd LOVE to get my hands on a website that can be used to accurately narrow down the MOST accurate or the "BEST" possible "consensus percentages" that show where or how many bettors are on one side... so for example, covers.com has the "Consensus" Picks that i frequently view, but those picks are "only" from covers.com members and only represent a small minority of gamblers... what id be looking to acquire is an accurate database highlighting the "Real" Consensus Percentages that identify where the ENTIRE betting public is placing their Money.... I understand if this sort of detail and/or criteria may not be attainable, but if it is, Please help a brotha out!!!! Thanks to ALL.....

 

Best of Luck Ladies n Gents!!!!

DO YOU WORK FOR VEGAS?

SERIOUSLY, IM NOT TRYING TO HATE ON YOU BUT IVE BEEN FOLLOWING YOU, LUCKILY I DIDNT PUT ANY MONEY DOWN BUT IT SEEMS LIKE YOU TRY TO GET PEOPLE TO SIDE WITH YOU AND NOT YOUR PICKS .....

GOOD LUCK TO YOU THIS WEEK.....

I HOPE YOU DONT GET A W2 FROM CEASERS

 

 

Your a complete jerkoff..... way to ruin a great thread that could help us all immensely...... thanks for wasting our time.......

hahahahahaha... timmons is a very good friend of mine (in real life, not this queer forum world that most of you consider 'reality'), and i think hed agree, i am VERY far from a "vegas employee"!!! lol, its actually funny to even respond to!!!

This is exactly right... I would argue this is just as important than the ability to pick the side on a game.

"Chasing" is the bettor's "Devil".

Do yourself a sanity check, and see if the $ amount of your bets increases, or if you find yourself making "impulse bets" following a loss.


Start the day off knowing which games you are going to bet... and how much.   No exceptions...   Much easier said than done.