There are winners in life and there are losers in life. This team is a loser in life. DET@DAL

Well, I posted the Jets@Dolphins last week, color coded the thing, had bullet points galore.

What were those points?

That Rex would open up the playbook. Did he? Well that fake punt sealed the game for the Jets (I even called this comparing him to Jeff Fisher in the Rams/Seahawks game). I'd call that opening up the playbook...

I said Geno would play well, just like he did last year in Miami, because it was after all, his hometown. Did he? He only had best game of his pro career. Don't believe me? Have Earthwake, the Fins guru, tell you otherwise (he won't). 

I said the team had not given up and would play for Rex in his final game. Did they? Of course they did.

Well it was all there in the thread and I pretty much called the thing from start to finish even adding an NBA analogy about the Jets ruining their draft pick position, which they of course did.

Have Sydiggs tell me again I have absolutely NO PROOF of any of this (It's clear the guy doesn't even know what capping a game means).

So why do I toot my horn here? Because of this illusion that this poster ALWAYS picks the Jets and when he does, he loses on them.

Listen to trolls and you will pay people.

I picked the Jets 6 times (out of sixteen games) for a whopping 38% of the time. I guess 38% translates to ALWAYS for trolls. My record in those six picks? 3-3 with of course, one of those three games being the Denver game which was simply the most horrendous bad beat of the entire NFL season.

But let these guys come in here and tell you Floyd Mayweather and his 800K was the 'right side' and that I'm a complainer. 

Listen to these fools and you'll end up like one of them.

Anyhow, onto the Dallas game.

So who is the loser in life in the NFL?

Is it the Cowboys?

I'm here to tell you to start forgetting about botched snaps in Seattle to end playoff games for Dallas. That Romo and that curse is LONG gone.

The Lions of course, are the losers in the life.

Back them, and you will pay...

With all due respect to Suuma (great capper), the past may not predict the future, but the past is damn sure hard to ignore when it comes to Matt Stafford.

Since he arrived in the Motor City, Stafford's Lions are 3-31 against teams that finish with a winning record. They are 0-17 against those teams on the road.

That alone should scare the shi* out of anyone who thinks the Lions should win straight up here (and there are quite a few of you on this board) as Stafford-lead Lions teams simply do not do so against any sort of quality. And out of these first round teams, Dallas is the cream of the crop this weekend.

Will that predict the future? No. But it certainly sends shivers up and down your spine.

And who is Matt Stafford?

Well, he's paid as a to 3 QB and we could name about 8 or 9 guys better than him putting him barely in the top third tier of NFL QB's.

His progression these past three years? Not that much. He's pretty much the same guy. I'll give it to him that he came down on his INT's this year but he fumbled more.

He is what he is. He's a QB who you'd want to have behind center on a Sunday in a playoff game but in my opinion, especially with these Lions who are perennial losers, he's not going to win you that game.

Now onto the Lions D. Great. Yes it is. And yes Dallas will be facing the top Run D in the league.

But to sit here and say they can't run the ball on the Lions?

That's interesting because with the NFC North on the line, the Lions allowed a season worst 152 yards on the ground to the Packers last week.

Dallas O-Line is superior to Green Bay's as well and will be able to open up more holes for Murray, who is clearly a better and more potent runner than Lacy.

So Dallas is going to run. And Detroit better have A LOT of success stopping them. Detroit will have some success, but enough to win? In Dallas? Where Stafford-lead Lions teams simply don't win games on the road...EVER...That's a tough sell folks.

And who is behind center for Dallas to throw the ball if they don't?

Is Dallas offense outside of the run chopped liver here? Please. Why must Murray run for 125? This Dallas team can beat you in other ways. Romo only had the best passer rating and QBR in the league this year. He's at his absolute peak right now and knows what's at stake. Stafford...is what he is. One peaking. One with the same old same old.

And I've said this with the Giants many times: Dallas is a team that has a history of WINNING. The are among the greatest NFL Champions.

Granted, they haven't won a hell of a lot of late in the playoffs (1-7 in their last 8 playoff games) but a red hot spotlight is on them when the big games roll around (or when losing streaks occur), because of their HISTORY, of which the Lions have NONE.

They are LOSERS for a reason. You can't count of the gravity of this game to mean the same to the Lions as it does to the Cowboys (this point gets lost on almost every poster here outside of BeginnerBoy). That matters when you are back in the playoffs, at home, at 12-4 after a superb season. To be one and done after all that? No way.

To think, after a season in which the Cowboys were projected to win 8 games, to now be tied for the best record in the league, and have the Lions knock them off their perch? No. 

They are home and I LOVE the fact they don't have a bye here. Keep a hot team hot and have them play the very next week.

Look at the cream puffs the Lions faced to finish the year to bolster that 11-5 record: A dead Bears team (TWICE, compared to once for Dallas), the worst team in the league in the Bucs, and a commendable Vikings team that jumped out to a 14-0 lead and had Bridgewater throw for 315 on them. Detroit looked immensely flat at home in a game they desperately needed, getting their first first down in the second quarter for god's sake.

So when they face quality (and that 'quality' in Minnesota had a losing record on the year), even their wins are questionable.

Look at the other wins. 1 point wins over the Saints and Falcons, teams from the worst division in all of football. And I know you guys remember how whacko that Saints game ending was. The Saints made every mistake to lose and then a bad pass interference call from the refs handed the one point win to Detroit. And that was a terrible Saints team in hindsight. Lions lose that game and they likely wouldn't even be here on Sunday.

Then to start the season, they caught the Giants on their ABSOLUTE worst day in their first game using a West Coast offense. Another win that looks impressive on paper but really wasn't all that much to write home about in hindsight.

So for all the talk about Dallas schedule and its apparent weakness, remember this team could have the best record in the league at 13-3 if Brandon Weeden didn't have to go for them in Week 9. They beat up on the weak teams they needed to.

Other points...

Lions:

Third straight game on the road. That's a tough spot to enter the playoffs in.

A very weak showing to end the year vs. the Pack. The Pack controlled that game virtually the whole way and beat them in almost every meaningful statistical category.

Didn't cover against the lousy Bears and Jimmy Clausen prior to that.

Prior to that? Didn't cover as big favorites against the Vikings.

0-3 ATS in it's last three.

Dallas:

Blew the doors off the Colts which many here love over a very live Cincy team.

Won in Seattle, a place where no other team can.

4 straight wins of double digits.  4-0 SU and ATS in it's last 4.

One team on a major upswing in real and betting-terms and one team, betting-wise on a down swing.

Now to the spread.

Do I like it at 7?

No.

You are paying a premium for Dallas. You always will. They are among the most public of teams and in good years, that premium gets worse.

But I don't see Dallas losing this game in any way, shape or form.

So if they win outright, what can we say about the spread?

It's big, but you Detroit backers better get inside the number.

And getting inside that number in the playoffs isn't easy especially in the Wild Card Round.

I'll give you this stat and take it for what you will.

Since 1978, Wild Card round winners cover 89% of the time, that is the team that wins, covers almost 9 of 10 times.

That means, only 10% of the games in all the Wild Card Rounds since 1978, resulted in a favorite winning but not covering the spread.

So if you don't have money on this Detriot ML, that trend doesn't bode well for you.

Now that trend DOES NOT predict the future, it is simply a trend about playoff spreads. That's it.

Enough. It's a number with a premium that is distasteful but we will attempt to avoid a backdoor.

GREAT teaser side btw: Cowboys to -1. Then you can take another game of your liking.

The pick is in.

The Winners in Life (Cows) - 7 over the Losers in Life (Lions)

"But to sit here and say they can't run the ball on the Lions?

That's interesting because with the NFC North on the line, the Lions allowed a season worst 152 yards on the ground to the Packers last week."

LOL

Eddie lacy and murray are very similar RBs?

you joking?

two total different running backs with two different styles.

Matt Forte is the closest you can find to murray, with out being murray.

how did Dallas do stopping him?

in two total games vs him, they gave up a grand total of 61 rushing yards. (week 13 and 16 if i recall right)

61 RUSHING YARDS.

Yes, yes. I only have TWO PAGES of write-up besides your selective critique and sentence picking.

Do you know what trends are? I said THEY DON'T predict the future and NO they don't help Dallas.

But some are COMPELLING to note and I did so...That is all. It doesn't help them WIN or COVER a game but it is a statement about the lines for those games.

Outside of that trend, I am not crazy about 7 here but I am willing to lay it and my write-up speaks to that.

Matt Forte a similar running back to Demarco Murray? 

Forte doesn't have anywhere near the elusiveness and speed as Murray and is more of a power back

Eddie lacy and murray are very similar RBs?

Where did I say this ALT? I actually implied they were quite dissimilar. Read again. You only have the evidence IN PRINT.

The guy just keeps digging himself a hole with every post.

Quote Originally Posted by fab14:

Bingo

Yup, BINGO. Because a thread title and a pick is all that was posted there.

The literacy rate on this site is just amazing and then you have other people who are barely literate egging them on.

Again, many posters here continue to embarrass themselves in full view of virtually everyone with half a brain.

Go bomb LC's threads with your shi* if you have a problem with trends. I'll post one in a blue moon that is compelling and you idiots go BONKERS.

Quote Originally Posted by chippalata:

More confident in my Lions play now 

Great. I hope that coin you flipped or those big butterflies in your stomach about the Lions winning brings all that money home to ya now and over the long term!