Posted:
#51
@bigred84
You have a hard time with (light) sarcasm
Sac's Week 8 Plays
tickets ?
Posted:
#56
@undermysac
Perception, performance, injuries all take their toll. But the reputation of one quarterback has been impervious to all of that: Patrick Mahomes.
I asked Evan Abrams, a betting-research expert at The Action Network, to help me quantify this Mahomes phenomenon. Action, a sports betting media company – that, for full disclosure, I left in 2024 after six years as a founding executive – has collected millions of data points related to sports betting. Abrams told me that, since Mahomes’ breakout in 2018, there are 101 quarterbacks who have started a game in which their team was a favorite getting at least 51 percent of the bets. Those are the typical indicators that the public is on that side. Mahomes leads all players with 91 starts under those beloved circumstances. The next closest is Josh Allen with 76.
The best arbiter of success in betting is money won or lost. Since 2018, only two quarterbacks have started 65-plus games, been the favorite getting the majority of the bets and rewarded bettors. One is Lions QB Jared Goff, who is an impressive 40-26-3 against the spread (ATS). That includes 19 covers over the course of the 2023 and 2024 seasons when the Lions, with the league’s most explosive offense, averaged 30 points and won by an average of more than eight points. They were a comet the market could not catch.
Accounting for the bookmakers’ cut, a $100 bet on every Goff game since 2018 would have won bettors more than $1,000. Second on that list is Tom Brady, whose 34-32-1 record earned bettors $61. And way down at the bottom, ranked 101 out of 101, is Mahomes, whose ATS record as a favorite getting at least 51 percent of the bets is 40-49-3.
In those games, betting $100 on Mahomes, bettors would be down more than $1,200. In fact, in 25 of those games, Mahomes and the Chiefs received the majority of bets even when they were double-digit favorites. They covered only eight of them.
Given his gifts and his success, Mahomes inflation has become inevitable, but it won’t stop casuals from betting on him or other popular teams. Or the pros from fading the public. Not even Mahomes can change that.
Etc., etc.
Posted:
#69
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
@Biscuiteater1 I hope you're right. The nfc north is a tough as hell division, every win counts. Your afc north is out of no where pretty good. But a lot of uncertainty with each team. The Steelers can't be that good could they?
I think Pitt @ home can cause a problem for any team.
@Biscuiteater1 I hope you're right. The nfc north is a tough as hell division, every win counts. Your afc north is out of no where pretty good. But a lot of uncertainty with each team. The Steelers can't be that good could they?
Posted:
#70
@undermysac
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
@Raiders22 I don't know how, but the Chiefs blew that game. 3rd n 2 Mahomes takes a sack to make a fg try longer. Ofcourse they'd miss.
@Raiders22 I don't know how, but the Chiefs blew that game. 3rd n 2 Mahomes takes a sack to make a fg try longer. Ofcourse they'd miss.
Yep. Then the last bit there the goal line was not so good either. Plenty of time to run and it was working. etc.
Not the best of coaching yesterday. MIN could have easily covered or won if they had kicked the FG earlier. In a low scoring game going for it on fourth is not nearly as crucial as getting any points possible.
Jackson only playing one play for BALT was ugly also, etc.
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