phixer's nfl week 5

Although the lines for the first half are yet to be released, with Atlanta -7 for the game I assume they will look Washington +4. Atlanta offense is a better pert of the Falcons team and since the line was released at -8, dropped down to -7 despite strong public support for the Falcons - we can have several different scenarios of what must have happened to drive the line in opposite direction of the majority of the bets placed:

1. Big Money was placed on the Skins offsetting the general public money.

2. The Reverse Line Movement (RLM ) was applied by the oddsmakers to drive some money in Atlanta direction.

3. The line changed in an opposite direction due to the understanding that the Falcons will lose at least one of the halves eliminating the "winning both halves" prop and somehow salvaging the chalk for the whole game.

Our first half bet answers all the criteria above.

Now, for the football buffs - we know that the Falcons aren't as strong as their record indicates since they had hardly any opposing caliber of a QB to face except Eli Manning. And we all know and saw that Eli Manning can lose when he wants and win when he wants. The game the Falcons won - the Giants were up and could easily choked the game and the Falcons - yet they did the opposite.

This season we can see few teams that the refs are favoring openly and so are the opposing QB's - STL Rams, WASH Redskins and the OAK Raiders on my radar for being those teams.

Another reason for this bet is the fact that the Falcons never had a both halves effort. It always was either losing the first half and winning the game (the Giants and the Cowboys) or losing the second half and still winning the game (The Texans and the Eagles). So, as a theoretician would go eliminating the possibilities - I'd say that the possibility where the Falcons start strong and also continue to dominate in the second half is very slim as Vegas would have to be stupid to foresee that and still lower the line from 8 to 7. So, this game alone will have few bets for me including the second half bet IN CASE this bet is not won.

This is a 10 Units Play

WASH Redskins +4  -110 First Half    1100$

This is a 5 Units Play

WASH Redskins +7  -105  525$

No one expects the Cardinals to lose again. Right? After seeing the impotency of the Lion's coaching staff who didn't even attempt to protest the referees' ignoring the batting the ball out of the inn zone penalty on Seattle and after realizing that the Lions couldn't win a game against practice dolls - after all that who in the right mind would even think betting on Detroit? Who? Anyone with the set of pair big enough to risk money on such weak and boneless team as the Lions? One look at their head coach and you feel like donating the game to them as they do not have to seem the juice to do it. And they don't. That is why they are a straight up 0-4. They could be 2-2, but they are 0-4.

Fitzgerald is not so great against the Lions traditionally. The Lions are forcing the turn overs. If the Cards can force themselves to lose at home against the Rams - they can very well do that away in Detroit. The Lions have a good defense and a very bad offense. Defense will stay the same while offense will improve.

This is a 5 Units Play

DET Lions +3  -120  (bought a half a point but in few days there will be no need to buy as it will go to 3 easily)   600$