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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    NFL Week 1. Here we go....

    123 ... 91011 Next Last»
    vanzack
    TrojanTodd
    U812
    surveyor101
    Jars
    ...
    Participants:
    Search model icon
    Views: 36517
    Posts: 264
    123 ... 91011 Next Last»
     
    vanzack
    vanzack
    Legend
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2001
    Posts: 60107
    Posted: Sep. 4, 2024 - 4:21 PM ET #1

    For those new, or need a reminder – this is what to expect from me this NFL season:

    What I do: ·
    · Give out NFL sides with widely available spreads / prices
    · Assign a unit value of 1-5
    · Keep a posted record
    · Games posted between Sat night and Sun morning, and day of game for Thurs / Mon games.
    · Release all at the same time
    · All are based on my own personal process developed over time which consists of a simulation model, and lots of experience.

    What I won’t do: ·
    Ask for money (I actually make more money than it would ever be worth to tout)
    · Make any affiliate money (I make money from sports gambling)
    · Give out plays that I don’t bet with my own money (I make money betting)
    · Keep vig in my units record. Assign whatever vig you want. One of my core principles is finding best lines and prices. If you choose to pay -110 for something that is widely available at -102, then that is on you. I don’t mind if you assign -110 to all of my plays – do whatever you want. I post very fair widely available lines that average -104ish prices. I have had 7 winning seasons no matter how much vig you assign.

    Why I do this:
    · I have been in the online sports gambling space for 25 years. I like it.
    · I will occasionally ask you to support your local animal shelter. I like to think that some do.

    My Record:
    · I have won documented for 7 straight seasons. Last season I won 64 units, and went about 58% (which has been about average for the 7 year run). Probably means I am due to lose. You bet, you take responsibility.

    What I ask from you:
    · Play nice at all times. Remember what you are paying for these picks
    · If you win, or if you lose and had fun – please consider donating to your local animal shelter

    peace_5

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
    Reply
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    For those new, or need a reminder – this is what to expect from me this NFL season:

    What I do: ·
    · Give out NFL sides with widely available spreads / prices
    · Assign a unit value of 1-5
    · Keep a posted record
    · Games posted between Sat night and Sun morning, and day of game for Thurs / Mon games.
    · Release all at the same time
    · All are based on my own personal process developed over time which consists of a simulation model, and lots of experience.

    What I won’t do: ·
    Ask for money (I actually make more money than it would ever be worth to tout)
    · Make any affiliate money (I make money from sports gambling)
    · Give out plays that I don’t bet with my own money (I make money betting)
    · Keep vig in my units record. Assign whatever vig you want. One of my core principles is finding best lines and prices. If you choose to pay -110 for something that is widely available at -102, then that is on you. I don’t mind if you assign -110 to all of my plays – do whatever you want. I post very fair widely available lines that average -104ish prices. I have had 7 winning seasons no matter how much vig you assign.

    Why I do this:
    · I have been in the online sports gambling space for 25 years. I like it.
    · I will occasionally ask you to support your local animal shelter. I like to think that some do.

    My Record:
    · I have won documented for 7 straight seasons. Last season I won 64 units, and went about 58% (which has been about average for the 7 year run). Probably means I am due to lose. You bet, you take responsibility.

    What I ask from you:
    · Play nice at all times. Remember what you are paying for these picks
    · If you win, or if you lose and had fun – please consider donating to your local animal shelter

    peace_5

     
    vanzack
    vanzack
    Legend
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2001
    Posts: 60107
    Posted: Sep. 4, 2024 - 4:23 PM ET #2

    Putting these up early week 1 as lines should be stable. Monday not included.

    Anticipating the questions... I am not a "good to X" line guy if lines move. I BET NUMBERS NOT TEAMS. I do not pretend that -3 is similar in any way to -3.5. Line and price are inextricably connected. If a line / price combination moves, my stake becomes bigger or smaller. If stake becomes small enough at the available line / price, it is a no bet (like the leans on Colts and Lions). I never chase a line/price combination because a team is "going to win" no matter what. Happy to discuss further.

    Units in week 1 are always going to be lower than subsequent weeks. I rely heavily on "traction" for determining staking, my word for standard deviation range in backtesting my model to determine staking. Week 1 I have no history, no backtesting, and therefore lower units risked.

    GL all

    thefootball Packers +2.5 (2.5 units)
    thefootball Cowboys +2.5 (2 units)
    thefootball Jags +3.25 (1.5 units)
    thefootball Falcons -3.25 (1.5 units)
    thefootball Giants +1.5 (1.5 units)
    thefootball Panthers +4 (1 unit)
    thefootball Cards +6.5 (1 unit)
    thefootball Colts +2.75 (lean)
    thefootball Lions -3.5 (lean)

    an_cheers

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
    Reply
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    Putting these up early week 1 as lines should be stable. Monday not included.

    Anticipating the questions... I am not a "good to X" line guy if lines move. I BET NUMBERS NOT TEAMS. I do not pretend that -3 is similar in any way to -3.5. Line and price are inextricably connected. If a line / price combination moves, my stake becomes bigger or smaller. If stake becomes small enough at the available line / price, it is a no bet (like the leans on Colts and Lions). I never chase a line/price combination because a team is "going to win" no matter what. Happy to discuss further.

    Units in week 1 are always going to be lower than subsequent weeks. I rely heavily on "traction" for determining staking, my word for standard deviation range in backtesting my model to determine staking. Week 1 I have no history, no backtesting, and therefore lower units risked.

    GL all

    thefootball Packers +2.5 (2.5 units)
    thefootball Cowboys +2.5 (2 units)
    thefootball Jags +3.25 (1.5 units)
    thefootball Falcons -3.25 (1.5 units)
    thefootball Giants +1.5 (1.5 units)
    thefootball Panthers +4 (1 unit)
    thefootball Cards +6.5 (1 unit)
    thefootball Colts +2.75 (lean)
    thefootball Lions -3.5 (lean)

    an_cheers

     
    TrojanTodd
    TrojanTodd
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2006
    Posts: 6098
    Posted: Sep. 4, 2024 - 4:23 PM ET #3

    You are a legend my friend! Good luck this season! peace_5 clover

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    You are a legend my friend! Good luck this season! peace_5 clover

     
    U812
    U812
    Rookie
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2017
    Posts: 681
    Posted: Sep. 4, 2024 - 4:24 PM ET #4

    Best of luck this year Van! Looking forwards to your plays.

     Thanks for all you do.

    peace_5

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    Best of luck this year Van! Looking forwards to your plays.

     Thanks for all you do.

    peace_5

     
    surveyor101
    surveyor101
    Prospect
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    Joined: Nov, 2016
    Posts: 440
    Posted: Sep. 4, 2024 - 4:27 PM ET #5

    peace_5 good luck this season

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    peace_5 good luck this season

     
    vanzack
    vanzack
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    Joined: Nov, 2001
    Posts: 60107
    Posted: Sep. 4, 2024 - 4:29 PM ET #6

    Quote Originally Posted by TrojanTodd:

    You are a legend my friend! Good luck this season!

    Thanks TT - good to see you

    an_cheers

     

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TrojanTodd:

    You are a legend my friend! Good luck this season!

    Thanks TT - good to see you

    an_cheers

     

     
    Jars
    Jars
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2017
    Posts: 6138
    Posted: Sep. 4, 2024 - 4:30 PM ET #7

    BOL to you this season! an_cheers

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    BOL to you this season! an_cheers

     
    BankOnIt22
    BankOnIt22
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2005
    Posts: 1742
    Posted: Sep. 4, 2024 - 4:31 PM ET #8

    The straight forward no nonsense approach always works for me. Good luck this season Van! clover peace_5 an_cheers

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    The straight forward no nonsense approach always works for me. Good luck this season Van! clover peace_5 an_cheers

     
    MadeInDade
    MadeInDade
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    Joined: Aug, 2020
    Posts: 4801
    Posted: Sep. 4, 2024 - 4:35 PM ET #9

    @vanzack

     Respect you as a capper and even more as a human for supporting animal sheltersan_clap. Good luck this season brotherpeace_5

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    @vanzack

     Respect you as a capper and even more as a human for supporting animal sheltersan_clap. Good luck this season brotherpeace_5

     
    jnethy
    jnethy
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2023
    Posts: 29
    Posted: Sep. 4, 2024 - 4:39 PM ET #10

    Good luck this season Van!! 

    clover win

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    Good luck this season Van!! 

    clover win

     
    Yanasaur
    Yanasaur
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    Posts: 2986
    Posted: Sep. 4, 2024 - 4:42 PM ET #11

    I assume the number like -3.25 means its 3 with extra juice like -120 for example, and opposite on +3.25 so 3 at +105 or +110 for example?

    Always look forward to your threads, thanks for sharing. 

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    I assume the number like -3.25 means its 3 with extra juice like -120 for example, and opposite on +3.25 so 3 at +105 or +110 for example?

    Always look forward to your threads, thanks for sharing. 

     
    Biscuiteater1
    Biscuiteater1
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    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2011
    Posts: 32923
    Posted: Sep. 4, 2024 - 4:43 PM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by MadeInDade:

    @vanzack  Respect you as a capper and even more as a human for supporting animal shelters. Good luck this season brother
     an_clap  

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    Quote Originally Posted by MadeInDade:

    @vanzack  Respect you as a capper and even more as a human for supporting animal shelters. Good luck this season brother
     an_clap  

     
    vanzack
    vanzack
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    Joined: Nov, 2001
    Posts: 60107
    Posted: Sep. 4, 2024 - 4:46 PM ET #13

    Quote Originally Posted by Yanasaur:

    I assume the number like -3.25 means its 3 with extra juice like -120 for example, and opposite on +3.25 so 3 at +105 or +110 for example? Always look forward to your threads, thanks for sharing.

    Half the wager on -3, half on -3.5.

    Juice comes to about -100

    peace_5

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yanasaur:

    I assume the number like -3.25 means its 3 with extra juice like -120 for example, and opposite on +3.25 so 3 at +105 or +110 for example? Always look forward to your threads, thanks for sharing.

    Half the wager on -3, half on -3.5.

    Juice comes to about -100

    peace_5

     
    vanzack
    vanzack
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    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2001
    Posts: 60107
    Posted: Sep. 4, 2024 - 4:47 PM ET #14

    @U812 

    @surveyor101 

    @Jars

    @BankOnIt22

    @MadeInDade

    @jnethy

    @Biscuiteater1

     

    Good to see all of you.  GL this season!

     peace_5an_cheers

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    @U812 

    @surveyor101 

    @Jars

    @BankOnIt22

    @MadeInDade

    @jnethy

    @Biscuiteater1

     

    Good to see all of you.  GL this season!

     peace_5an_cheers

     
    jpot34
    jpot34
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    Posts: 13197
    Posted: Sep. 4, 2024 - 4:51 PM ET #15

    @vanzack

     To a solid capper and soul, good luck this year Van!!!  peace_5

    6K GOLD/$150 SILVER/ Find JESUS!
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    @vanzack

     To a solid capper and soul, good luck this year Van!!!  peace_5

     
    vanzack
    vanzack
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    Posts: 60107
    Posted: Sep. 4, 2024 - 4:55 PM ET #16

    Quote Originally Posted by jpot34:

    @vanzack  To a solid capper and soul, good luck this year Van!!!

    Good to see another old timer here! 

    GL to you also.

    an_cheers

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by jpot34:

    @vanzack  To a solid capper and soul, good luck this year Van!!!

    Good to see another old timer here! 

    GL to you also.

    an_cheers

     
    lmb4321
    lmb4321
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    Posted: Sep. 4, 2024 - 5:00 PM ET #17

    @vanzack

     Get it Van....welcome back.....peace_5

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    @vanzack

     Get it Van....welcome back.....peace_5

     
    NoFlyZone
    NoFlyZone
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    Posted: Sep. 4, 2024 - 5:10 PM ET #18

    The van the myth the legend. Good luck this season an_horse

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    The van the myth the legend. Good luck this season an_horse

     
    User854910
    User854910
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    Posted: Sep. 4, 2024 - 5:12 PM ET #19

    Post Deleted
    Don't let the book set the number
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    brn2loslive2win
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    Posted: Sep. 4, 2024 - 5:13 PM ET #20

    @vanzack

     GL this season vanzack. Looking forward to your insight and plays peace_5clover

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    @vanzack

     GL this season vanzack. Looking forward to your insight and plays peace_5clover

     
    lmb4321
    lmb4321
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    Posted: Sep. 4, 2024 - 5:13 PM ET #21

    @vanzack

     Like the Cards and Panthers plays the best.....bol Van....peace

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    @vanzack

     Like the Cards and Panthers plays the best.....bol Van....peace

     
    mchriste619
    mchriste619
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    Posted: Sep. 4, 2024 - 5:17 PM ET #22

    The VanMan is back!! Thx for your valuable input as always and cheers to a profitable season dude.

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    The VanMan is back!! Thx for your valuable input as always and cheers to a profitable season dude.

     
    Crashdavis565
    Crashdavis565
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    Posted: Sep. 4, 2024 - 5:19 PM ET #23

    Thank you sir.

     

    ????

     

    I thought most of the lines looked reasonable when they came out, but the one that really stood out to me was the Colts, Most of the public on the other side, What do you see that  John Q does not?

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    Thank you sir.

     

    ????

     

    I thought most of the lines looked reasonable when they came out, but the one that really stood out to me was the Colts, Most of the public on the other side, What do you see that  John Q does not?

     
    TheVigPodcast
    TheVigPodcast
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    Joined: Sep, 2023
    Posts: 3679
    Posted: Sep. 4, 2024 - 5:27 PM ET #24

    @vanzack

     an_cheers

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    @vanzack

     an_cheers

     
     
    B Lugosi
    B Lugosi
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    Posted: Sep. 4, 2024 - 5:28 PM ET #25

    Thx for posting every year Van , appreciate your thoughts on the games but especially your love for animals !

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    Thx for posting every year Van , appreciate your thoughts on the games but especially your love for animals !

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