Posted:
#51
@vanzack
Great to see ya here Van the man! Thanks very much for sharing as always bud
0
NFL Week 1. Here we go....
Posted:
#54
I'll echo what others have said that in my close to 20 years on this site, I've learned to trust very few handicappers. Your consistency, discipline, and emphasis on finding the best lines at the best vig have become foundational for me.
Thank you for posting again this year. Here's to many big payouts and support for charities that support animals.
I like the week 1 card. Many contrarian plays, as usual, which usually translate to long-term profitability in the NFL.
3
Posted:
#55
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Putting these up early week 1 as lines should be stable. Monday not included. Anticipating the questions... I am not a "good to X" line guy if lines move. I BET NUMBERS NOT TEAMS. I do not pretend that -3 is similar in any way to -3.5. Line and price are inextricably connected. If a line / price combination moves, my stake becomes bigger or smaller. If stake becomes small enough at the available line / price, it is a no bet (like the leans on Colts and Lions). I never chase a line/price combination because a team is "going to win" no matter what. Happy to discuss further. Units in week 1 are always going to be lower than subsequent weeks. I rely heavily on "traction" for determining staking, my word for standard deviation range in backtesting my model to determine staking. Week 1 I have no history, no backtesting, and therefore lower units risked. GL all Packers +2.5 (2.5 units) Cowboys +2.5 (2 units) Jags +3.25 (1.5 units) Falcons -3.25 (1.5 units) Giants +1.5 (1.5 units) Panthers +4 (1 unit) Cards +6.5 (1 unit) Colts +2.75 (lean) Lions -3.5 (lean)
my luck you won’t win a game hahahah nice to see u post
Putting these up early week 1 as lines should be stable. Monday not included. Anticipating the questions... I am not a "good to X" line guy if lines move. I BET NUMBERS NOT TEAMS. I do not pretend that -3 is similar in any way to -3.5. Line and price are inextricably connected. If a line / price combination moves, my stake becomes bigger or smaller. If stake becomes small enough at the available line / price, it is a no bet (like the leans on Colts and Lions). I never chase a line/price combination because a team is "going to win" no matter what. Happy to discuss further. Units in week 1 are always going to be lower than subsequent weeks. I rely heavily on "traction" for determining staking, my word for standard deviation range in backtesting my model to determine staking. Week 1 I have no history, no backtesting, and therefore lower units risked. GL all Packers +2.5 (2.5 units) Cowboys +2.5 (2 units) Jags +3.25 (1.5 units) Falcons -3.25 (1.5 units) Giants +1.5 (1.5 units) Panthers +4 (1 unit) Cards +6.5 (1 unit) Colts +2.75 (lean) Lions -3.5 (lean)
0
Posted:
#57
week 1 and we're already against eachother. ive bet 2 games so far, with you on packers but i bet the browns. ill be the first to admit, i ddidnt like what i saw from watson last year, dude looked average at best when he was on the field, hoping he gets off to a decent start. the defense is what made me pull the trigger though, i see them getting to dak often, 3+ sacks and a handful of pressures and not letting dak sit back in. the pocket with all day to hit open receivers, when daks under pressure and has to make quick decisions he can be careless with the ball and the browns can get a couple turnovers and if they run the ball well and keep dak and the O off the field they come away with the W.... aside from that, my bookie had the browns ml at -125, thats a price i just couldnt pass up, hes based out of dallas so maybe thats why.... gl this season bro. keep it rollin.
0
Posted:
#65
Welcome back Brother
Loving your top 5 and liking your leans
The 2 - Im questioning is Panthers and Colts and mainly Carolina, Im not a Carr fan but don’t see panthers keeping pace with NO.
WHat Im I missing? I see N.O. as a stronger play, similar to your Boys or Packers play. What Im I missing? Any insight is appriecated. 
0
season and your love for animals woof woof much respect mah man
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