This is a really good point. 37 is such a key number and being on the right side of that is absolutely HUGE when betting on totals whether going over or under. 38 isn't as key, but is also pretty big for totals that are in the high 30's. Good grab at 39.
Two quick questions.....Did you make a decision on the Pitt or NYJ yet? Where do you see the lines moving? I noticed that the Bears are now being juiced more on the 3.5 line, but I believe it is a bookie "feint" and will jump the other way by tomorrow. Jets-Steelers are pretty even at 3.5 now. I "think" that goes heavily towards Pitt by tomorrow. What are your thoughts?
I have a small lean on Pittsburgh on the side. It was my initial gut reaction and as we approach game time I lean towards my gut. I don't like it enough to play it though at this price. Really thought hard about a PIT/Under teaser but those really aren't my types of bets and besides I like that Under bet quite a bit.
I'm not really sure where the lines go. Something tells me the GB/CHI goes down a bit if it does in fact move. Maybe a weak 3.5 or strong 3 in favor of the Packers.
GL on PIT buddy.
If the Bears make it to the Super Bowl are you going to sit out and root them on?
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Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
This is a really good point. 37 is such a key number and being on the right side of that is absolutely HUGE when betting on totals whether going over or under. 38 isn't as key, but is also pretty big for totals that are in the high 30's. Good grab at 39.
Two quick questions.....Did you make a decision on the Pitt or NYJ yet? Where do you see the lines moving? I noticed that the Bears are now being juiced more on the 3.5 line, but I believe it is a bookie "feint" and will jump the other way by tomorrow. Jets-Steelers are pretty even at 3.5 now. I "think" that goes heavily towards Pitt by tomorrow. What are your thoughts?
I have a small lean on Pittsburgh on the side. It was my initial gut reaction and as we approach game time I lean towards my gut. I don't like it enough to play it though at this price. Really thought hard about a PIT/Under teaser but those really aren't my types of bets and besides I like that Under bet quite a bit.
I'm not really sure where the lines go. Something tells me the GB/CHI goes down a bit if it does in fact move. Maybe a weak 3.5 or strong 3 in favor of the Packers.
GL on PIT buddy.
If the Bears make it to the Super Bowl are you going to sit out and root them on?
A few years back when the Bears played Indy, I loved the Colts. As a fan, I couldn't bet against my team, so I stayed away and went heavy on some props. Right before the game, I'm talking with my buddy, and after 5 minutes of him calling me a gash for not betting the Super Bowl, I let him talk me into putting $500 on the Bears ML. Needless to say, after a huge glimmer of hope after seeing Hester run that opening kick back, Indy put a whooping on Chicago just like I thought. I'm not making that same mistake twice as I just don't think Chitown can beat either the Jets or the Steelers. So 2011 will be a prop heavy Super Bowl for me minus the ML wager.
I disagree with one thing you said a few posts up about the public being all over the Pack. Almost every single person I've talked to the last week LOVES the Packers. At work, I would say 19 out of 20 guys are on the Pack hard with the lone exception being a guy who is a pure "face the public" type. I do see some Bears love scattered around here on Covers, but most of the cappers I respect on here hit the Pack when the line was 3(including you). It also seems like a lot of the Bears backers like the value in the line more than any real reasoning(not that there's anything wrong with that at all). I see a lot of " cold weather, home team should not be getting 3+, chewed up field" insight, but not much else.
Personally, I like the Bears and while I wouldn't touch this game if it was in the regular season, I would definitely hit Chicago if I wasn't a fan as there are only three more games left in the NFL season. Goddamn, it flew by so quick. It was like yesterday we were talking about the Eagle/Packer Week 1 game and I remember tailing you on the over(thank you Mike Vick).
0
Fucker!
A few years back when the Bears played Indy, I loved the Colts. As a fan, I couldn't bet against my team, so I stayed away and went heavy on some props. Right before the game, I'm talking with my buddy, and after 5 minutes of him calling me a gash for not betting the Super Bowl, I let him talk me into putting $500 on the Bears ML. Needless to say, after a huge glimmer of hope after seeing Hester run that opening kick back, Indy put a whooping on Chicago just like I thought. I'm not making that same mistake twice as I just don't think Chitown can beat either the Jets or the Steelers. So 2011 will be a prop heavy Super Bowl for me minus the ML wager.
I disagree with one thing you said a few posts up about the public being all over the Pack. Almost every single person I've talked to the last week LOVES the Packers. At work, I would say 19 out of 20 guys are on the Pack hard with the lone exception being a guy who is a pure "face the public" type. I do see some Bears love scattered around here on Covers, but most of the cappers I respect on here hit the Pack when the line was 3(including you). It also seems like a lot of the Bears backers like the value in the line more than any real reasoning(not that there's anything wrong with that at all). I see a lot of " cold weather, home team should not be getting 3+, chewed up field" insight, but not much else.
Personally, I like the Bears and while I wouldn't touch this game if it was in the regular season, I would definitely hit Chicago if I wasn't a fan as there are only three more games left in the NFL season. Goddamn, it flew by so quick. It was like yesterday we were talking about the Eagle/Packer Week 1 game and I remember tailing you on the over(thank you Mike Vick).
A few years back when the Bears played Indy, I loved the Colts. As a fan, I couldn't bet against my team, so I stayed away and went heavy on some props. Right before the game, I'm talking with my buddy, and after 5 minutes of him calling me a gash for not betting the Super Bowl, I let him talk me into putting $500 on the Bears ML. Needless to say, after a huge glimmer of hope after seeing Hester run that opening kick back, Indy put a whooping on Chicago just like I thought. I'm not making that same mistake twice as I just don't think Chitown can beat either the Jets or the Steelers. So 2011 will be a prop heavy Super Bowl for me minus the ML wager.
I disagree with one thing you said a few posts up about the public being all over the Pack. Almost every single person I've talked to the last week LOVES the Packers. At work, I would say 19 out of 20 guys are on the Pack hard with the lone exception being a guy who is a pure "face the public" type. I do see some Bears love scattered around here on Covers, but most of the cappers I respect on here hit the Pack when the line was 3(including you). It also seems like a lot of the Bears backers like the value in the line more than any real reasoning(not that there's anything wrong with that at all). I see a lot of " cold weather, home team should not be getting 3+, chewed up field" insight, but not much else.
Personally, I like the Bears and while I wouldn't touch this game if it was in the regular season, I would definitely hit Chicago if I wasn't a fan as there are only three more games left in the NFL season. Goddamn, it flew by so quick. It was like yesterday we were talking about the Eagle/Packer Week 1 game and I remember tailing you on the over(thank you Mike Vick).
I agree about the Bears if they do manage to win this game.
True about the mainstream public on the Pack, I was just looking at it more from a forum perspective but again I'm not sure why as I really couldn't care less. Although I have to say my best bud is on the Bears this week and let's just say betting on a home dog against a hot "public" team is not his normal type of wager. He'll be drunk an hour before kickoff so I'm hoping I can rope him into a straight pk on the game.
Pittsburgh up to a solid 4 at all the legit books.
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Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
Fucker!
A few years back when the Bears played Indy, I loved the Colts. As a fan, I couldn't bet against my team, so I stayed away and went heavy on some props. Right before the game, I'm talking with my buddy, and after 5 minutes of him calling me a gash for not betting the Super Bowl, I let him talk me into putting $500 on the Bears ML. Needless to say, after a huge glimmer of hope after seeing Hester run that opening kick back, Indy put a whooping on Chicago just like I thought. I'm not making that same mistake twice as I just don't think Chitown can beat either the Jets or the Steelers. So 2011 will be a prop heavy Super Bowl for me minus the ML wager.
I disagree with one thing you said a few posts up about the public being all over the Pack. Almost every single person I've talked to the last week LOVES the Packers. At work, I would say 19 out of 20 guys are on the Pack hard with the lone exception being a guy who is a pure "face the public" type. I do see some Bears love scattered around here on Covers, but most of the cappers I respect on here hit the Pack when the line was 3(including you). It also seems like a lot of the Bears backers like the value in the line more than any real reasoning(not that there's anything wrong with that at all). I see a lot of " cold weather, home team should not be getting 3+, chewed up field" insight, but not much else.
Personally, I like the Bears and while I wouldn't touch this game if it was in the regular season, I would definitely hit Chicago if I wasn't a fan as there are only three more games left in the NFL season. Goddamn, it flew by so quick. It was like yesterday we were talking about the Eagle/Packer Week 1 game and I remember tailing you on the over(thank you Mike Vick).
I agree about the Bears if they do manage to win this game.
True about the mainstream public on the Pack, I was just looking at it more from a forum perspective but again I'm not sure why as I really couldn't care less. Although I have to say my best bud is on the Bears this week and let's just say betting on a home dog against a hot "public" team is not his normal type of wager. He'll be drunk an hour before kickoff so I'm hoping I can rope him into a straight pk on the game.
Pittsburgh up to a solid 4 at all the legit books.
Brutal! The NBA hasn't exactly been nice to me lately! Worst part is I'll be in Vegas next weekend. No football and I'm not that big on table games
I gave up on table games. Sure you have nice runs when the lucky flies your way, but it usually is an even steven slow drain of my money. I just play slots and video poker like an old lady now. Max bet, click like a zombie, and hope for a jackpot.
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Quote Originally Posted by JohnAlz:
Brutal! The NBA hasn't exactly been nice to me lately! Worst part is I'll be in Vegas next weekend. No football and I'm not that big on table games
I gave up on table games. Sure you have nice runs when the lucky flies your way, but it usually is an even steven slow drain of my money. I just play slots and video poker like an old lady now. Max bet, click like a zombie, and hope for a jackpot.
How awful is the two week wait going to be until the Super Bowl?
Brutal.
GL this week, Andy. Also JohnAlz, Remy, and the rest of the regulars. Also been seeing lots of new faces contributing, can't remember most names off top of my head, but nepatriot and jersey973 come to mind. It all comes together in a thread that is key to helping my handicapping along during the week. Great stuff week in and week out.
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Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Let's kick these games off already.
How awful is the two week wait going to be until the Super Bowl?
Brutal.
GL this week, Andy. Also JohnAlz, Remy, and the rest of the regulars. Also been seeing lots of new faces contributing, can't remember most names off top of my head, but nepatriot and jersey973 come to mind. It all comes together in a thread that is key to helping my handicapping along during the week. Great stuff week in and week out.
Solid writeups, I just disagree with a couple of points.
1at highlighted part: I honestly don't think the public are all over the Packers. I know I said I didn't expect many Bear backers earlier in this thread but I have read about every post on this forum this week and there are almost as many if not the same amount of Bears backers as there are Packers backers. That hook on the 3.5 is drawing a lot of Bears money. Also: Does it really matter who the public is on? I heard the same arguments for the Cheifs over the Ravens and Seahawks over the Bears.
2nd highlighted part: I'm not sure if that stat is correct. The Falcons closed -5.5 in Seattle in Week 15 and cruised to a 34-18 win. I know as I had Seattle in that game riding similar "3rd straight road game" stats that were heavily against the Falcons (one was 2-16 ATS against Atlanta) but they all went up in smoke.
Good writeups though. GL this week and come back for the Super Bowl.
Oh! you're right my friend, damn! ok so now in weeks 14 or later, teams playing 3rd straight road game at pick or small faves of less than 6 pts, are 1-9 SU and 1-9 ATS, still scaring, isn't it?
Well, I hope the best of luck this sunday fellas, have a good one!
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Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Solid writeups, I just disagree with a couple of points.
1at highlighted part: I honestly don't think the public are all over the Packers. I know I said I didn't expect many Bear backers earlier in this thread but I have read about every post on this forum this week and there are almost as many if not the same amount of Bears backers as there are Packers backers. That hook on the 3.5 is drawing a lot of Bears money. Also: Does it really matter who the public is on? I heard the same arguments for the Cheifs over the Ravens and Seahawks over the Bears.
2nd highlighted part: I'm not sure if that stat is correct. The Falcons closed -5.5 in Seattle in Week 15 and cruised to a 34-18 win. I know as I had Seattle in that game riding similar "3rd straight road game" stats that were heavily against the Falcons (one was 2-16 ATS against Atlanta) but they all went up in smoke.
Good writeups though. GL this week and come back for the Super Bowl.
Oh! you're right my friend, damn! ok so now in weeks 14 or later, teams playing 3rd straight road game at pick or small faves of less than 6 pts, are 1-9 SU and 1-9 ATS, still scaring, isn't it?
Well, I hope the best of luck this sunday fellas, have a good one!
Oh! you're right my friend, damn! ok so now in weeks 14 or later, teams playing 3rd straight road game at pick or small faves of less than 6 pts, are 1-9 SU and 1-9 ATS, still scaring, isn't it?
Well, I hope the best of luck this sunday fellas, have a good one!
Not as scary as 0-10.
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Quote Originally Posted by TheBetz:
Oh! you're right my friend, damn! ok so now in weeks 14 or later, teams playing 3rd straight road game at pick or small faves of less than 6 pts, are 1-9 SU and 1-9 ATS, still scaring, isn't it?
Well, I hope the best of luck this sunday fellas, have a good one!
GL this week, Andy. Also JohnAlz, Remy, and the rest of the regulars. Also been seeing lots of new faces contributing, can't remember most names off top of my head, but nepatriot and jersey973 come to mind. It all comes together in a thread that is key to helping my handicapping along during the week. Great stuff week in and week out.
Couldn't have said it any better myself.
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Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
Brutal.
GL this week, Andy. Also JohnAlz, Remy, and the rest of the regulars. Also been seeing lots of new faces contributing, can't remember most names off top of my head, but nepatriot and jersey973 come to mind. It all comes together in a thread that is key to helping my handicapping along during the week. Great stuff week in and week out.
You're right!!!!Not exactly the best game to bet on, but the total might be better than the side. They usually run the score up in those games since the defense is lax and offense is just looking for big plays. GL to everyone today!!! I stuck with my original bets:
GB -3
Under 44
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Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
You'll have the Pro Bowl.
You're right!!!!Not exactly the best game to bet on, but the total might be better than the side. They usually run the score up in those games since the defense is lax and offense is just looking for big plays. GL to everyone today!!! I stuck with my original bets:
I gave up on table games. Sure you have nice runs when the lucky flies your way, but it usually is an even steven slow drain of my money. I just play slots and video poker like an old lady now. Max bet, click like a zombie, and hope for a jackpot.
I'd rather play blackjack or throw some loot on black at the wheel than play slots. Those are just as big, if not a bigger rip off than table games. It just takes longer to lose your money. GL today my friend
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Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
I gave up on table games. Sure you have nice runs when the lucky flies your way, but it usually is an even steven slow drain of my money. I just play slots and video poker like an old lady now. Max bet, click like a zombie, and hope for a jackpot.
I'd rather play blackjack or throw some loot on black at the wheel than play slots. Those are just as big, if not a bigger rip off than table games. It just takes longer to lose your money. GL today my friend
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