exactly why the line is 3.5
think about this - this line is telling you that if the game were being played at Lambeau that it would be Pack (-9.5 / 10).
wouldn't everyone be on the Bears if that were the case?
I agree with the others in here - there is value in getting the home team at more than field goal in this game. Both games between these two this season were close, hard-fought, field-position games that swung on a key late turnover (James Jones fumble in Chicago, Cutler pick in GB).
Take the points, bet the under, enjoy a smash-mouth classic played outdoors.
exactly why the line is 3.5
think about this - this line is telling you that if the game were being played at Lambeau that it would be Pack (-9.5 / 10).
wouldn't everyone be on the Bears if that were the case?
I agree with the others in here - there is value in getting the home team at more than field goal in this game. Both games between these two this season were close, hard-fought, field-position games that swung on a key late turnover (James Jones fumble in Chicago, Cutler pick in GB).
Take the points, bet the under, enjoy a smash-mouth classic played outdoors.
with you on this...
with you on this...
I took Bears +3.5
Two division rivals who have a clear dislike for each other. Defenses are roughly evenly matched up. They have played some tight hard fought games the last two matchups. The Bears took a W in Soldier field this season and held a 3-3 game on the road in GB in a meaningless game to them well into the 4th quater. Rogers is hot right now but I think when faced with a great defense he can be contained. Packers are 3 and 5 on road (well 5 and 5 now). Not exactly road warriors. Devin Hester is a game changer on special teams. Greg Jennings is already complaining about the conditions at Soldier field. In a situation like this with the public all over GB as well I'll take the home dog and the FG plus.
The Jets game is a real tough one to cap. Personally I think that the Pats game was such a huge win for them it is going to be really tough to get that up for a game like that again. I know they say there are no let downs in the playoffs but damn was that a big win for them. Then again the Steelers had to rally from behind to beat their arch enemy as well so they are in a simliar boat.
What I dislike about the game is the Steelers run defense will force Sanchez to throw and the Nick Folk has trouble kicking FG in ideal situations so a long FG to win the game at Heinz and it is game over. Troy floating around in the secondary means Sanchez has to be on target all day. Big Ben isn't going to go down or be rattled by getting knocked down like Manning or Brady does.
What I like about the matchup. Steelers rely on the rushing game as well and the Jets excel at stuffing the run. Revis on Wallace. Cromartie on Ward. Who is left to be feared? Steelers O line is banged up. Rex knows the Steelers very well from his Ravens days.
The most encouraging fact is the Pittsburgh media was thrilled to see the Jets win thinking them to inferior team to the Pats and are already chalking this up as a W and planning their Dallas trips. Jets feed into that disrespected underdog bullshit. They play angry and with something to prove.
All in all I am staying away and will probably take a ML tease on both the Bears and the Jets for sh!ts and giggles. If the Bears win I can always hedge it.
BOL to all this week ....
I took Bears +3.5
Two division rivals who have a clear dislike for each other. Defenses are roughly evenly matched up. They have played some tight hard fought games the last two matchups. The Bears took a W in Soldier field this season and held a 3-3 game on the road in GB in a meaningless game to them well into the 4th quater. Rogers is hot right now but I think when faced with a great defense he can be contained. Packers are 3 and 5 on road (well 5 and 5 now). Not exactly road warriors. Devin Hester is a game changer on special teams. Greg Jennings is already complaining about the conditions at Soldier field. In a situation like this with the public all over GB as well I'll take the home dog and the FG plus.
The Jets game is a real tough one to cap. Personally I think that the Pats game was such a huge win for them it is going to be really tough to get that up for a game like that again. I know they say there are no let downs in the playoffs but damn was that a big win for them. Then again the Steelers had to rally from behind to beat their arch enemy as well so they are in a simliar boat.
What I dislike about the game is the Steelers run defense will force Sanchez to throw and the Nick Folk has trouble kicking FG in ideal situations so a long FG to win the game at Heinz and it is game over. Troy floating around in the secondary means Sanchez has to be on target all day. Big Ben isn't going to go down or be rattled by getting knocked down like Manning or Brady does.
What I like about the matchup. Steelers rely on the rushing game as well and the Jets excel at stuffing the run. Revis on Wallace. Cromartie on Ward. Who is left to be feared? Steelers O line is banged up. Rex knows the Steelers very well from his Ravens days.
The most encouraging fact is the Pittsburgh media was thrilled to see the Jets win thinking them to inferior team to the Pats and are already chalking this up as a W and planning their Dallas trips. Jets feed into that disrespected underdog bullshit. They play angry and with something to prove.
All in all I am staying away and will probably take a ML tease on both the Bears and the Jets for sh!ts and giggles. If the Bears win I can always hedge it.
BOL to all this week ....
I agree. Chicago's defense is as phony as a $3 bill. They give up points "period"... 26 pure points per game last 4 home games. That is not a good defense. Its downright atrocious. They gave up 24 to Seattle when b4 Seattle entered that game were only scoring 15pppg on the road. I dont care when why or how they gave up the 24 to Seattle, the fact is that they did. They gave up, 27 to the Jets, 29 to New England and 26 to Philly. The last three were among the top 5 teams in the league. The next team they play is #2 in the league and the best offensive team in the final four.
I agree. Chicago's defense is as phony as a $3 bill. They give up points "period"... 26 pure points per game last 4 home games. That is not a good defense. Its downright atrocious. They gave up 24 to Seattle when b4 Seattle entered that game were only scoring 15pppg on the road. I dont care when why or how they gave up the 24 to Seattle, the fact is that they did. They gave up, 27 to the Jets, 29 to New England and 26 to Philly. The last three were among the top 5 teams in the league. The next team they play is #2 in the league and the best offensive team in the final four.
I did just read that the field in Chicago is supposed to be atrocious. Footing is going to be a major problem from the sounds of it.
This information is critical IMO.
I did just read that the field in Chicago is supposed to be atrocious. Footing is going to be a major problem from the sounds of it.
This information is critical IMO.
I love all these comments like "Aaron Rodgers played the game of his life last week so he's not going to be as good this week".
You fuckers are ridiculous.
Rodgers has been one of the best QB's in the league for the last 3 years. That wasn't an abnormal performance from him last week. In week 16 he did the same thing to the Giants. The guy is a tremendous quarterback and he's a threat to do exactly what he did to Atlanta and The Giants every friggin time he steps on the field.
The guy has thrown for 12,000 yards his first 3 years. Open your friggin eyes. It's not some kind of fluke. If he gets time to throw, he'll rip Chicago a new asshole. That's a guarantee from Greyhound.
I love all these comments like "Aaron Rodgers played the game of his life last week so he's not going to be as good this week".
You fuckers are ridiculous.
Rodgers has been one of the best QB's in the league for the last 3 years. That wasn't an abnormal performance from him last week. In week 16 he did the same thing to the Giants. The guy is a tremendous quarterback and he's a threat to do exactly what he did to Atlanta and The Giants every friggin time he steps on the field.
The guy has thrown for 12,000 yards his first 3 years. Open your friggin eyes. It's not some kind of fluke. If he gets time to throw, he'll rip Chicago a new asshole. That's a guarantee from Greyhound.
And I trust Rodgers to not do anything stupid in a big game like this , probably 10 times as much as I ever trusted Brett Favre.
Favre was a bonehead, Aaron Rodgers is not.
And Cutler is a lot more like Favre than he is Rodgers.
And I trust Rodgers to not do anything stupid in a big game like this , probably 10 times as much as I ever trusted Brett Favre.
Favre was a bonehead, Aaron Rodgers is not.
And Cutler is a lot more like Favre than he is Rodgers.
Pitt -3. I bought a rare hook here. My philosophy on hooks is they are not worth it in the long run, and usually I kinda believe that if you ever feel the need to buy a hook, maybe you shouldn't be betting the game PERIOD, but in this specific game I lost out on the early 3 and I don't want to be a loser in the case of a FG game. And it very well can be a FG game.
The last couple years the Jets have made me a lot of money. I have a bunch of friends who are hardcore Jet fans. I've gotten very comfortable rooting on Gang Green with the crew, and I looked long and hard for every possible angle to load up one last time and root the Jets to the Super Bowl with my crew. I just can't do it though. Especially as I am probably gonna stay away from the NFC game as I am a Bear fan and gonna root my squad neutrally.
First of all, I look throughout the season at the games where Pittsburgh played teams built similarly to the Jets. Teams that were physical and relied on the their running attack to win games....
- Baltimore(last week). Won the game 31-24. Pitt held them to 126 total yards. 21 1st downs to 12. Held their run game to 16 rushes for 36 yards.
- Cleveland(week 17). Won the game 41-9. Pitt held them to 225 total yards. 24 1st downs to 17. Held their run game to 13 rushes for 24 yards.
- Carolina(week 16). Won 27-3. Pitt held them to 119 total yards. 22 1st downs to 7. Held their run game to 22 rushes for 74 yards.
- Jets(week 15). Pitt lost this game, but practically owned every statistical edge.
- Baltimore(week 13). Won 13-10. Pitt held them to 269 total yards. 15 1st downs to 11. Held their run game to 17 rushes for 36 yards.
- Oakland(week 11). Won 35-3. Held them to 182 total yards including 15 rushes for 47 yards.
- Didn't feel like dragging this on, but Pittsburgh also pounded teams(Falcons, Balt, Cleve, and TB) early in the year when Big Ben was out to similar results.
I think Pittsburgh are built to beat the above teams as they are just as big, mean, and physical as anyone out there. Sure, you could pick apart that list and say a few of those teams stink or a few of those teams are overrated, but I can't overlook that in a league where passing games and aerial attacks are the norm, Pittsburgh pounded quite a few teams that are built on physicality just like the Jets.
Looking back at the Week 15 game against the Jets.....The Jets played a great game and I give them props. They rushed 24 times for 91 yards which is a huge success in my eyes against a team like Pitt. Sanchez played a good clean game. They converted a couple of huge 3rd and 4th down plays(one a TD run by Sanchez on 4th and 1). Their special teams got them a kickoff return for a touchdown to start the game and was absolutely flawless in every aspect(including the punt that led to the late safety that sealed it). So I take my hat off to the Jets. They played a perfect game when it counted(at the time were reeling after NE and Miami losses), but I can't ignore some of the other stats. Rush yards, pass yards, first downs, top, all in favor of the Steelers.
How can the Jets beat Pittsburgh this week? Imo, you have to have some sort of running game right off the bat. On top of that, you have to take what Dick LeBeau gives you. He will let you dink and dunk all night long, but as soon as you try to force something on 3rd and long is when the Steelers will make the defensive play that turns the game around. Will Mark Sanchez have the patience and discipline needed to dink and dunk without making any mistakes? He did it a month ago in Week 15. Can he do it again in even a bigger pressure situation? I do not think so. I like the kid. He has a LOT of work to do if he wants to be known among the NFL's finest, but he always seems to step up when it counts and manage his team along in big games. I respect that even when it seems Jet fans do not(I actually heard calls for Brunell from some of those dopes during the Indy game). I just don't think he has another perfect game in him like he had in Week 15. Pittsburgh defense is healthy and surging right now(look at them the last month; the stats are staggering weak opponents or not) and I don't think Sanchez will be patient enough to manage this one.
I hear a lot of people saying "Well, Revis gonna shut down Wallace no problem and Cromarie gonna blanket Hines Ward, so Ben isn't gonna have anywhere to throw." That couldn't be anymore false. If Wallace doesn't line up on Revis' side of the field, is he really gonna tail him all over the place? Same with Ward. If Ward lines up in the slot and works the middle of the field, him and Miller both have the size and just enough speed to take advantage of the Jet's middle. Another thing I think people are underestimating is just how fucking fast a few of these Steeler wideouts are. The Jets defense has been a lot less aggressive the last couple weeks and it has had great success, but I don't think they will be so conservative Sunday for a few different reasons(Ben's size and mobility in the pocket the chief reason). When they blitz, that's gonna leave a LOT of speed out there with Wallace, Brown, and Sanders burning all over the field, and it is not as easy as Revis on this guy, Cro on another to stop it.
One last point is the play of Ryan Clark. If the Jets think they can avoid Troy and pick on this guy's side of the field, they are mistaken. He has been playing some real good ball the last month or so, and looking his way may not be the weakness you would expect.
I hate to see it in a way, but I believe the Jets run ends yet again in the AFC championship game against a worthy foe.
Pitt -3. I bought a rare hook here. My philosophy on hooks is they are not worth it in the long run, and usually I kinda believe that if you ever feel the need to buy a hook, maybe you shouldn't be betting the game PERIOD, but in this specific game I lost out on the early 3 and I don't want to be a loser in the case of a FG game. And it very well can be a FG game.
The last couple years the Jets have made me a lot of money. I have a bunch of friends who are hardcore Jet fans. I've gotten very comfortable rooting on Gang Green with the crew, and I looked long and hard for every possible angle to load up one last time and root the Jets to the Super Bowl with my crew. I just can't do it though. Especially as I am probably gonna stay away from the NFC game as I am a Bear fan and gonna root my squad neutrally.
First of all, I look throughout the season at the games where Pittsburgh played teams built similarly to the Jets. Teams that were physical and relied on the their running attack to win games....
- Baltimore(last week). Won the game 31-24. Pitt held them to 126 total yards. 21 1st downs to 12. Held their run game to 16 rushes for 36 yards.
- Cleveland(week 17). Won the game 41-9. Pitt held them to 225 total yards. 24 1st downs to 17. Held their run game to 13 rushes for 24 yards.
- Carolina(week 16). Won 27-3. Pitt held them to 119 total yards. 22 1st downs to 7. Held their run game to 22 rushes for 74 yards.
- Jets(week 15). Pitt lost this game, but practically owned every statistical edge.
- Baltimore(week 13). Won 13-10. Pitt held them to 269 total yards. 15 1st downs to 11. Held their run game to 17 rushes for 36 yards.
- Oakland(week 11). Won 35-3. Held them to 182 total yards including 15 rushes for 47 yards.
- Didn't feel like dragging this on, but Pittsburgh also pounded teams(Falcons, Balt, Cleve, and TB) early in the year when Big Ben was out to similar results.
I think Pittsburgh are built to beat the above teams as they are just as big, mean, and physical as anyone out there. Sure, you could pick apart that list and say a few of those teams stink or a few of those teams are overrated, but I can't overlook that in a league where passing games and aerial attacks are the norm, Pittsburgh pounded quite a few teams that are built on physicality just like the Jets.
Looking back at the Week 15 game against the Jets.....The Jets played a great game and I give them props. They rushed 24 times for 91 yards which is a huge success in my eyes against a team like Pitt. Sanchez played a good clean game. They converted a couple of huge 3rd and 4th down plays(one a TD run by Sanchez on 4th and 1). Their special teams got them a kickoff return for a touchdown to start the game and was absolutely flawless in every aspect(including the punt that led to the late safety that sealed it). So I take my hat off to the Jets. They played a perfect game when it counted(at the time were reeling after NE and Miami losses), but I can't ignore some of the other stats. Rush yards, pass yards, first downs, top, all in favor of the Steelers.
How can the Jets beat Pittsburgh this week? Imo, you have to have some sort of running game right off the bat. On top of that, you have to take what Dick LeBeau gives you. He will let you dink and dunk all night long, but as soon as you try to force something on 3rd and long is when the Steelers will make the defensive play that turns the game around. Will Mark Sanchez have the patience and discipline needed to dink and dunk without making any mistakes? He did it a month ago in Week 15. Can he do it again in even a bigger pressure situation? I do not think so. I like the kid. He has a LOT of work to do if he wants to be known among the NFL's finest, but he always seems to step up when it counts and manage his team along in big games. I respect that even when it seems Jet fans do not(I actually heard calls for Brunell from some of those dopes during the Indy game). I just don't think he has another perfect game in him like he had in Week 15. Pittsburgh defense is healthy and surging right now(look at them the last month; the stats are staggering weak opponents or not) and I don't think Sanchez will be patient enough to manage this one.
I hear a lot of people saying "Well, Revis gonna shut down Wallace no problem and Cromarie gonna blanket Hines Ward, so Ben isn't gonna have anywhere to throw." That couldn't be anymore false. If Wallace doesn't line up on Revis' side of the field, is he really gonna tail him all over the place? Same with Ward. If Ward lines up in the slot and works the middle of the field, him and Miller both have the size and just enough speed to take advantage of the Jet's middle. Another thing I think people are underestimating is just how fucking fast a few of these Steeler wideouts are. The Jets defense has been a lot less aggressive the last couple weeks and it has had great success, but I don't think they will be so conservative Sunday for a few different reasons(Ben's size and mobility in the pocket the chief reason). When they blitz, that's gonna leave a LOT of speed out there with Wallace, Brown, and Sanders burning all over the field, and it is not as easy as Revis on this guy, Cro on another to stop it.
One last point is the play of Ryan Clark. If the Jets think they can avoid Troy and pick on this guy's side of the field, they are mistaken. He has been playing some real good ball the last month or so, and looking his way may not be the weakness you would expect.
I hate to see it in a way, but I believe the Jets run ends yet again in the AFC championship game against a worthy foe.
I'm a little surprised the total for the Pack game is 44. I expected mid to high 30's. I know you're not big on totals Mac, but any opinions on this? Anyone else?
I think the Under is the play. Only chance Chicago has in this game is to keep it a low-scoring, smasthmouth dogfight. Being that this is such a big game, and the weather will probably be cold as shit, I think both teams will play a little more conservative and run the ball more than usual.
I'm a little surprised the total for the Pack game is 44. I expected mid to high 30's. I know you're not big on totals Mac, but any opinions on this? Anyone else?
I think the Under is the play. Only chance Chicago has in this game is to keep it a low-scoring, smasthmouth dogfight. Being that this is such a big game, and the weather will probably be cold as shit, I think both teams will play a little more conservative and run the ball more than usual.
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