NFL Conference Championships

Sorry bud, I missed your post - I think the field conditions if they do indeed turn out to be true as rumored, actually favor the Bears.

My thought is that Cutler is not good at handling pressue from the outside, especially in comparison to Rodgers. The poor field conditions may actually buy him more time due to the poor footing for the DE's, etc.. This will ultimately give him more time to look downfield and he will be less likely to make a quintessential, patented Cutler brain fart.

 

I have read this in a few different places this week.  I understand that in the return game, the clear edge goes to the Jets.  However, Nick Folk is a huge negative for the Jets.  If I were Coach Ryan, I would have a very difficult time calling his number for a kick outside of 35 yards.  Especially at the ketchup bottle, where kickers go to die.  I know Suisham isn't Vinatieri, but Folk sucks.

Folk = Suisham

Weatherford >>>> Kapinos

Jets Return Game >>>> Steelers Return Game

I didnt mention the kickers because they cancel each other out. But the rest? Jets by quite a big margin.

fair enough.  i guess i disagree with folk being = to suisham but its probably six in one hand and a half dozen in the other.  looking forward to reading your thoughts on the game sizzle.  thanks for your response. 

Folk had a case of the yips for a few weeks. But he is 9/10 since that.

I just think, as you suggested, a case of 6 of one, half dozen of another.

GL buddy.

I am curious whether anybody feels there is some value to be found in taking futures plays on both GB and the Jets.  I know the love is all over GB and Pitt, but there is a chance one of them will lose.  Right now on bet365 the Bears are at +500 and the Jets are at +425.  Is anybody willing to say that neither of these teams has a shot at winning it all?

So my question is, is it worth putting down some pocket change on both these plays?

NY Jets/Pittsburgh UNDER 39 (-115)

I simply think this will be a hard fought, low scoring game where points are at a premium and field position will be a valued commodity. We have two of the best defenses in the league, both healthy and playing at a very high level at the present time going up against two good but not elite offenses. We also have two of, if not the best two defensive minds in the NFL in Rex Ryan and Dick LeBeau.

The Steelers and Jets finished the year ranked 2nd and 3rd in the league in total defense. I went back and took a look at how games played out in previous postseasons when two defenses that finished in the Top 5 in the regular season squared off in the playoffs. Surprisingly there were only 11 such instances in the past 20 years. Only 3 of those 11 games had scores of over 39 total points and one of them was the Ravens/Giants Super Bowl with 41 points scored but 21 of them came in the 3rd quarter on an interception return for a TD and two kickoff returns for TD's. Both teams combined for only 396 total yards in that game and a woeful 5-30 on 3rd down. In the past 10 years there have been 7 games in this situation and 5 have gone Under 39 total points with one of the two going over being that Ravens/Giants affair. Some of these games have been close though with 37 being a common number (37 is like the 7 of totals as it comes in the second most of any number, 38 is up there as well) and there were actually more Overs than Unders but the point totals were mostly in the low 30's.

I feel like I'm catching a couple of points on the line here as well as the last game between these two closed at 36 needing a safety and KO return TD to push it over. No Polamalu as well. Probably the main reason I'm getting a couple extra points is that both of these teams played high scoring games last week. However the Ravens/Steelers game had a very misleading score as there was a defensive TD and several turnovers near the opposing endzones leading to points. 55 points scored in that one when both teams combined for 389 total yards. The Jets/Pats was a little misleading as well as there was 17 points scored in the final two minutes and if Greene had made the smart play and laid down at the goal line the game ends 21-14. I think this will play out more like the Jets/Colts game from a couple weeks ago and the Ravens/Steelers field position battles from earlier in the year.

That's not to say those turnovers, special teams/defensive scores, and late garbage time points won't happen here as they are always a big time worry for an Under bettor but the odds aren't that great of it happening in any one particular game.

Again, both defenses are playing at an elite level right now. They finished up there in just about every single defensive category; 2nd and 3rd in total D, 1st and 6th in points allowed, 1st and 3rd in rush yards per carry, 1st and 6th in pass yards per attempt, 3rd and 10th in 3rd down %, 1st and 3rd in yards per play, 1st and 6th in points per play, the list goes on and on. FWIW - Pittsburgh was the higher ranked team in every one of those categories I just listed.

I don't see both teams running much and you'd think this would favor an over with more passing but both of these pass defenses are playing so well right now it's hard to envision much passing success. We've also got two bad kickers in the cold weather kicking balls that will feel like rocks in a terrible stadium for kickers.

Another interesting thing from those clashes of Top 5 defenses in the playoffs in the past: One team usually gets completely shut down. The past 10 times this situation has occurred the winning team has won by at least 7 points every time and the loser has averaged 9.3 points per game.

I don't like betting teasers and I don't like doing the side and total in the same game but at this point I am very tempted to bet a Steelers/Under teaser.

Green Bay -3

I think I already talked about why I like this one. Green Bay is on fire right now on both sides of the ball. Aaron Rodgers is on another planet and the defense is playing outstanding. The Pack may not be able to run but why would they when they have a major league QB and the best receiving corps in the league?  I think they run to set up the pass if anything or get a few pops later in the game after the pass has set up the run.

I know a lot of people think these defenses are close but I don't believe that to be the case. As I mentioned in post #27 the Bears defense has been chewed up and spit out against any decent offense they have seen this year while Green Bay has held those same types of offenses to about 70 yards and 10 points per game less than they had averaged for the year. The Packers finished 2nd in the NFL allowing just 15 ppg this year but over their last 11 games they have allowed 12.8 ppg which is a shockingly low number in this day and age of the NFL. Over that same span the Bears have given up 19.6 ppg.

Make no mistake about it, the Green Bay Packers have an elite defense and I think that elite defense forces Cutler into mistakes. I'm not totally sold on this "revamped" o-line of the Bears. They gave up 5 sacks to the Pack just a couple of weeks ago. The Packers not only generated the 2nd most sacks in the NFL this year because they have a good defensive line but it's also been because of excellent coverage in the secondary leading to a lot of coverage sacks. Green Bay was excellent against the pass this year finishing 4th in completion %, 5th in yards, 3rd in yards per attempt, 2nd in INT, and 1st in opp QB rating. This is something I think Cutler will struggle with, and he's already done so against this Dom Capers defense in the past (see post #24).

Even if Cutler gets a pinch of extra time because of the field conditions I still think the coverage will be good, but the problem with Cutler is he will hold the ball too long or force something which is where the big miscues happen (sacks, picks). Last week against a shitty Seahawks defense he was sacked 3 times and also had a sack-fumble that the Bears were fortunate to recover. And who can forget that horrible throw at the goal line that hit a Seattle defender right in the gut? There wasn't even any heat on him on that play, it was just a terrible decision like he makes a few times every game. The man is completeng 60% of his throws this year which is not good, I don't think he has the accuracy to play well when it counts against this defense. If he is hesitant or makes those horrible decisions we have seen him make in the past I think he gets burned because the Packers rush will capitalize on him holding the ball too long and the secondary will catch wayward throws as there are some major ballhawks back there. The Packers were 2nd in the league in interceptions this year and have a whooping 58 picks over the last two years including the playoffs.

There's no question the Bears have a major special teams advantage but Mike McCarthy is one of the better coaches at preparing his team and coming up with a winning gameplan. I expect him to have a solid plan of not kicking to Hester if he can help it and even sacrificing a few yards kicking it out of bounds, something that isn't such an absurd thought when you consider the way the Packers defense is playing. The man isn't stupid in preparing, his knows this Bears special teams unit is deadly and after giving up a kick return TD last week he knows he must keep the ball out of the returner's hands. As much as I like McCarthy as a game preparer I still don't fully trust him as a game manager as he has gone conservative too much for my liking but last week may have been a shift in philosophy as the Packers came out in the 2nd half with a lead and played like they were trailing.

Bottom line is the Packers are too hot with a better O and better D that IMO will make up for any special teams disadvantage. The Bears are going to need a huge special teams or defensive play and Cutler to play mistake free to win this game and I don't see it. Prove me wrong, Jay. I have no problem paying to see you try and I will probably pay more if the line drops back down.


GL this weekend gentlemen.

BEARS AND JETS WIN THIS WEEKEND AND THEN JETS WIN THE SUPER BOWL. LOCK IT IN BABY!!!

Only if you like

I am a Jets fan and I wholeheartily agree with the statement that Folk sucks

I have the Jets/Bears as well.  If this were to happen I would do a backflip like Braylon Edwards in my living room.

GL John/Andy/Glyde and the rest of the cast of our usualy contributors. 

Same to ya Remy!

<------   First off, obv. I'm a Steeler fan.

Secondly, I'm also a pissed off Ravens backer because of this stat.  Since Heinz Field opened in '02, Pittsburgh was 0-16-1 ATS (3-14 SU) as a short fave of 1.5 to 3.5.  That game was one play away from a 4th down stop and gimme PIT FG.  Well, now they're 1-16-1 ATS, 4-14 SU.  I know 18 games is technically a small sample, but still...

Last week I took BAL +3.5 and PIT -170, which only ended up costing me the ML juice.  I think NYJ +3.5 and PIT -190 are the right plays this week.  Or, tease NYJ +9.5 & PIT +3 (if your book allows it).  

Oh, here's another good stat.  Playoff teams coming off 40+ point games are 2-18 ATS, which is making me pause on the Packers. 

Both unders look like the best value, for the reasons many of you have already posted. 

BOL gentlemen.   

Or, tease NYJ +9.5 & PIT +3 (if your book allows it).  

s/b NYJ +9.5 & PIT +2.5. 

Ok guys, Im gonna post my picks one more time, this is how it looks for me.

1. Chicago Bears. Ok I have to admit that I'm one of the guys that have been riding the "Aaron Rodgers Cash Train" since week 16 against the Giants, and then in money line against Bears, Eagles, and Falcons, but this week Im gonna have to get off of this vagon even when I said that Im gonna bet on GB until the superbowl (this doesn't mean that I think Packers are not going to be in Dallas). Yes, the mighty Green Bay Packers travel for third consecutive week to face the Chicago Bears in Soldier Field, with all the public in their backs and with the pressure (for first time in this playoffs) of being road favorites, well, in weeks 14 or later, teams playing 3rd straight road game at pick or small faves of less than 6 pts, are 0-10 SU and 0-10 ATS. Ok fellas, believe me, if there is a place in NFL where people hate Packers and would do everything to see GB out of the contest, that place is Chicago. I KNOW, I know Cutler cannot even be compared with Rodgers, but you remember last week thats what people told me about Sanchez and Brady and my bankroll is bigger than ever. I still remember Rodgers words after the game in Atlanta he said that "he had his best performance ever" well, I think he had it, and he dont gonna repeat it because this time there is a heaviest team in front of them, they run, they put much more pressure in QB than Atlanta, and the most important thing is that they know GB. Lets check this, GB defeat Chicago to conquer the playoffs right?, well Chicago won 5 of last 6 revenge games against Green Bay, and also in this matchup the revenging team at home is 4-0-1 ATS. Chicago proved in week 17 that they can compete against Green Bay even when the game is meaningless for them, +3.5 is just to much for the No.2 seed at home dudes. Ohhh! what is this, teams coming off wins of 21-plus points in the playoffs are 4-9 against the spread in their next game since 2002!! this is getting better and better. With all that being said, I think this game is gonna be decided by one score I mean maybe one, two or three points, my money is gonna be in that juicy +3.5 Chicago, but I still believe the Packers gonna be in the SuperBowl against the...

2. Pittsburgh Steelers. Believe fellas, if there is a team that wants to play and win a SuperBowl in Dallas, that's Pittsburgh (believe me Im a Dallas Cowboys fan)  so they are gonna use all the Steeler Concept to win and demostrate than they are a legitimate candidate to be World Champions. If there is something that I learn in all these years handicaping is "Never bet against the Steelers at home in playoffs, never" because they always find the most unespected and wicked way to win games, they put more drama in their games than Hollywood and at the end of the day they are laughing about what happen. In addition I have seen the zebras and the league help the Steelers way too many
times in key games like this one, especially at home. When the Steelers get this far, it is almost a garantee that we weill see at least one phantom call in Pittsburgh's favor. And talking about the game, ohhh man, did you really buy that 28-21 victory over the ravens, Come On!! No one remembers the 14 points that the zebras gave to baltimore with two weirds calls (you remember that fumble where the ball was like 10 sec in the ground), Pittsburgh outrushed and outpassed Baltimore, they won 21-0 the second half, the Steelers defense was amazing the real score of this matchup should be 28-7, but if that had happened all the public would be in the Steelers and Vegas need some people in the Jets too (you know, this is how it works). I was with Sanchez and Ryan last week but Im not buying the Jets in this one, Sanchez defeat Manning and Brady and had no interceptions, he is in the championship game for the second year in a row, actually if he defeats Big Ben he gonna have the opportunity to win a superbowl in his second year as a rookie QB (just like Big Ben) but this is Heinz Field man, and we gonna have the colder Heinz Field in the last years, is rainy, is cold, is muddy, this is not New Meadowlands, this is not the South of California, this is not Mexico. Steelers have thirst of revenge, the Jets went to Pitts and beat them in primetime, the only difference is that this sunday, Steelers will have Polamalu and Miller playing.

Last three years Conference Champs Games had have the same methodology, there is always one public team paying the bills and the other one doesnt, so Im taking my chance with this two picks, and wishing the SuperBowl could be Packers Steeleres, cheers and the best luck for this week fellas. 

 

Betz

Great stuff, Andy.

I'm just sitting back and rooting my Bears neutrally tomorrow, but hard to argue with your insight and reasoning for the Pack.

 

 

 

 Good way of thinking MJ

This is a really good point.  37 is such a key number and being on the right side of that is absolutely HUGE when betting on totals whether going over or under.  38 isn't as key, but is also pretty big for totals that are in the high 30's.  Good grab at 39.

Two quick questions.....Did you make a decision on the Pitt or NYJ yet?  Where do you see the lines moving?  I noticed that the Bears are now being juiced more on the 3.5 line, but I believe it is a bookie "feint" and will jump the other way by tomorrow.  Jets-Steelers are pretty even at 3.5 now.  I "think" that goes heavily towards Pitt by tomorrow.  What are your thoughts?

 

Solid writeups, I just disagree with a couple of points.

1at highlighted part: I honestly don't think the public are all over the Packers. I know I said I didn't expect many Bear backers earlier in this thread but I have read about every post on this forum this week and there are almost as many if not the same amount of Bears backers as there are Packers backers. That hook on the 3.5 is drawing a lot of Bears money. Also: Does it really matter who the public is on? I heard the same arguments for the Cheifs over the Ravens and Seahawks over the Bears.

2nd highlighted part: I'm not sure if that stat is correct. The Falcons closed -5.5 in Seattle in Week 15 and cruised to a 34-18 win. I know as I had Seattle in that game riding similar "3rd straight road game" stats that were heavily against the Falcons (one was 2-16 ATS against Atlanta) but they all went up in smoke.


Good writeups though. GL this week and come back for the Super Bowl.