Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
Pitt -3. I bought a rare hook here. My philosophy on hooks is they are not worth it in the long run, and usually I kinda believe that if you ever feel the need to buy a hook, maybe you shouldn't be betting the game PERIOD, but in this specific game I lost out on the early 3 and I don't want to be a loser in the case of a FG game. And it very well can be a FG game.
The last couple years the Jets have made me a lot of money. I have a bunch of friends who are hardcore Jet fans. I've gotten very comfortable rooting on Gang Green with the crew, and I looked long and hard for every possible angle to load up one last time and root the Jets to the Super Bowl with my crew. I just can't do it though. Especially as I am probably gonna stay away from the NFC game as I am a Bear fan and gonna root my squad neutrally.
First of all, I look throughout the season at the games where Pittsburgh played teams built similarly to the Jets. Teams that were physical and relied on the their running attack to win games....
- Baltimore(last week). Won the game 31-24. Pitt held them to 126 total yards. 21 1st downs to 12. Held their run game to 16 rushes for 36 yards.
- Cleveland(week 17). Won the game 41-9. Pitt held them to 225 total yards. 24 1st downs to 17. Held their run game to 13 rushes for 24 yards.
- Carolina(week 16). Won 27-3. Pitt held them to 119 total yards. 22 1st downs to 7. Held their run game to 22 rushes for 74 yards.
- Jets(week 15). Pitt lost this game, but practically owned every statistical edge.
- Baltimore(week 13). Won 13-10. Pitt held them to 269 total yards. 15 1st downs to 11. Held their run game to 17 rushes for 36 yards.
- Oakland(week 11). Won 35-3. Held them to 182 total yards including 15 rushes for 47 yards.
- Didn't feel like dragging this on, but Pittsburgh also pounded teams(Falcons, Balt, Cleve, and TB) early in the year when Big Ben was out to similar results.
I think Pittsburgh are built to beat the above teams as they are just as big, mean, and physical as anyone out there. Sure, you could pick apart that list and say a few of those teams stink or a few of those teams are overrated, but I can't overlook that in a league where passing games and aerial attacks are the norm, Pittsburgh pounded quite a few teams that are built on physicality just like the Jets.
Looking back at the Week 15 game against the Jets.....The Jets played a great game and I give them props. They rushed 24 times for 91 yards which is a huge success in my eyes against a team like Pitt. Sanchez played a good clean game. They converted a couple of huge 3rd and 4th down plays(one a TD run by Sanchez on 4th and 1). Their special teams got them a kickoff return for a touchdown to start the game and was absolutely flawless in every aspect(including the punt that led to the late safety that sealed it). So I take my hat off to the Jets. They played a perfect game when it counted(at the time were reeling after NE and Miami losses), but I can't ignore some of the other stats. Rush yards, pass yards, first downs, top, all in favor of the Steelers.
How can the Jets beat Pittsburgh this week? Imo, you have to have some sort of running game right off the bat. On top of that, you have to take what Dick LeBeau gives you. He will let you dink and dunk all night long, but as soon as you try to force something on 3rd and long is when the Steelers will make the defensive play that turns the game around. Will Mark Sanchez have the patience and discipline needed to dink and dunk without making any mistakes? He did it a month ago in Week 15. Can he do it again in even a bigger pressure situation? I do not think so. I like the kid. He has a LOT of work to do if he wants to be known among the NFL's finest, but he always seems to step up when it counts and manage his team along in big games. I respect that even when it seems Jet fans do not(I actually heard calls for Brunell from some of those dopes during the Indy game). I just don't think he has another perfect game in him like he had in Week 15. Pittsburgh defense is healthy and surging right now(look at them the last month; the stats are staggering weak opponents or not) and I don't think Sanchez will be patient enough to manage this one.
I hear a lot of people saying "Well, Revis gonna shut down Wallace no problem and Cromarie gonna blanket Hines Ward, so Ben isn't gonna have anywhere to throw." That couldn't be anymore false. If Wallace doesn't line up on Revis' side of the field, is he really gonna tail him all over the place? Same with Ward. If Ward lines up in the slot and works the middle of the field, him and Miller both have the size and just enough speed to take advantage of the Jet's middle. Another thing I think people are underestimating is just how fucking fast a few of these Steeler wideouts are. The Jets defense has been a lot less aggressive the last couple weeks and it has had great success, but I don't think they will be so conservative Sunday for a few different reasons(Ben's size and mobility in the pocket the chief reason). When they blitz, that's gonna leave a LOT of speed out there with Wallace, Brown, and Sanders burning all over the field, and it is not as easy as Revis on this guy, Cro on another to stop it.
One last point is the play of Ryan Clark. If the Jets think they can avoid Troy and pick on this guy's side of the field, they are mistaken. He has been playing some real good ball the last month or so, and looking his way may not be the weakness you would expect.
I hate to see it in a way, but I believe the Jets run ends yet again in the AFC championship game against a worthy foe.
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