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NFC DIVISIONAL ~ Packers @ Cardinals

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Posts: 38

Wizerguy

Legend

Joined: Jan, 2005

Posts: 38280

Posted: Jan. 15, 2016 - 12:49 PM ET #26

Quote Originally Posted by BostonStrangler:

Is your pppg data a way to handicap potential turnovers or to measure true effectiveness of an offense/defense? Or both?

My pppg ( pure points per gm) or tppg ( true points per gm) data is strictly to measure offensive and defensive true points efficiency, true point differential, and true point win margin as a whole in a series of games and per game.

There's no way to handicap potential "future" turnovers ie." ( intangeable). However, the TO ratio stat will give you an idea of a teams tendency to turn the ball over or how well they take it away

- The storms will come, the storms will pass -

Monkeybongos

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 147

Posted: Jan. 15, 2016 - 1:59 PM ET #27

wizer, you make a good, logical case for GB.

But logic, as misleading as it can be during the regular season
(it is the No Freakin Logic league, after all), carries even less weight during the playoffs.

Think AZ might start slow offensively--it's been 3 weeks since they've been productive in a game--but I'd be surprised if GB has many sustained drives or big plays. At least that result in TDs.

GB 1st Half I'd feel comfortable with, maybe a 10-7 or 13-10 GB lead.

Doubt they'll keep that up the whole game. AZ is the better team w home field. Expect they'll pick it up in the 2nd Half. Momentum in the playoffs can swing on one play and snowball out of control, especially for home teams.

Feeling a 27-16 AZ win.

Wizerguy

Legend

Joined: Jan, 2005

Posts: 38280

Posted: Jan. 15, 2016 - 3:21 PM ET #28

Quote Originally Posted by Monkeybongos:

wizer, you make a good, logical case for GB.

But logic, as misleading as it can be during the regular season
(it is the No Freakin Logic league, after all), carries even less weight during the playoffs.

Think AZ might start slow offensively--it's been 3 weeks since they've been productive in a game--but I'd be surprised if GB has many sustained drives or big plays. At least that result in TDs.

GB 1st Half I'd feel comfortable with, maybe a 10-7 or 13-10 GB lead.

Doubt they'll keep that up the whole game. AZ is the better team w home field. Expect they'll pick it up in the 2nd Half. Momentum in the playoffs can swing on one play and snowball out of control, especially for home teams.

Feeling a 27-16 AZ win.

Your belief that logic "as misleading as it can be" during the reg season, carries less weight in the playoffs, is actually the opposite of what I believe.

Logic "as misleading as it can be " during the regular season,
carries even more weight in the playoffs than certain people will ever believe.

- The storms will come, the storms will pass -

BostonStrangler

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 1959

Posted: Jan. 15, 2016 - 5:03 PM ET #29

Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:

My pppg ( pure points per gm) or tppg ( true points per gm) data is strictly to measure offensive and defensive true points efficiency, true point differential, and true point win margin as a whole in a series of games and per game.

There's no way to handicap potential "future" turnovers ie." ( intangeable). However, the TO ratio stat will give you an idea of a teams tendency to turn the ball over or how well they take it away

Thats why they call you Wizer

Wizerguy

Legend

Joined: Jan, 2005

Posts: 38280

Posted: Jan. 15, 2016 - 7:27 PM ET #30

Quote Originally Posted by Proxyi:

My thoughts exactly. Plus we, as people always will be a little more subjective than should be. Rodgers, GB getting +7? How, why, its still Rodgers and McCarthy, blah blah, plus they've won in Wash in a convincing fashion, blah blah.
It might could turn around GB, who were struggling the whole freaking year, but i dont think it will.
Yes, they've might gained a little confidence, and Rodgers enjoyed the game but it was the Wash D. That D, which had only one sack (!!!) and like zero pressure. Arizona D is a total different animal, as well the desert is.
Plus Gruden had absolutely no idea, what and how to do and change in the gameplan, and Arians is like ten billion times the coach Gruden is.
Arizona knows how to play against GB, and they are the way better and complete team, plain and simple.

Arizona by at least a TD, yet again.

Bol