NFC DIVISIONAL ~ Packers @ Cardinals

133-109-3           ( 28-18 last 2 weeks)


   As we all are aware, this is a rematch from just a few weeks ago only this time imo the outcome will be much different.  As anyone with any experience with this type of scenario will know is that teams in revenge situations from the regular season are better than 60% ATS.  Even without me delving into the trends of how +7 > dogs ( that magical #) fare in these playoff revenge situations.,from my experience and memory alone I can tell you that they fare very very well. However, with that being said, in my book the trend alone doesn't justify the play. You need some solid evidence to back it up The real kicker to solidify my opinion on this game is when I tell myself  to just K.I.S.S( keep it simple stupid) lets keep it simple

  When I look at the evidence, my model of this 2nd match compared  with my model of the 1st match,  the historical +7 playoff revenging  dog trend  could repeat  with GB not only covering the spread, but possibly winning the game outright this time around. Very unlikely that the outcome of the 1st game will happen twice...Advantage GB. > coaching adjustments.

  The real deal comes from looking into the last matchup ( the game itself) and the 4 -5 game series model comparison of the 2 clubs prior to match #1 ie the overall offensive and defensive pure points per game and pppg win margin vs their opponents CCR etc.

   In match #2 model  Im looking at  the same scenario as I had with with my match #1 model. The difference " TURNOVERS".  My match # 1   model showing GB+5 to cover and possibly win su never took place because of them. It wasn't that Arizona was 28 points better than GB. Think about it

   As I stated my model from the 1st match not only had GB covering the spread but had them winning the game outright. However, that wasn't to be because of the OL issues GB had in that game  and the many turnovers Ari turned into points and without getting into all the detailed #,s etc. Here's one glaring stat for all to look at

  Final score 1st match 38-8 Arizona ?  Deceptive ? What really happened.

Point #1 14 points scored by Arizona's defense when GB's defense wasn't even on the field. Not  a true indication on how efficient GB's defense really was in that game.

 Point #2   28 total points scored by Arizona' overall off GB miscues. 2 by the defense 1 by Arizona's offense, not a true indication of how efficient Arizona's offense really was in that game  Take all that away...final 10-8 Arizona. I could get into more detail stats etc.....don't think I need to. Its simple, so lets keep it that way. ( K.I.S.S)

Other GB trends to consider:

GB:  13-3 ATS w / revenge vs non-div opp off div game( Ari off div gm)
          9-0 vs .666 > opp
          9-1 as dogs 2> off a su non-div dog win ( GB was +1 @ wash)
         12-2 off a su non-div dog win


GB wins this game straight up....the +7 is a bonus...Mark it down


Green Bay +7    ( -110)      BIG PLAY

Green Bay ML ( +280)

*Correction on ML    

 Green Bay ML  (+240)

Interesting take, also worth noting 3 of the AZ defenders who contributed to this performance in game 1 will not be oN the field. 

Interesting take, also worth noting 3 of the AZ defenders who contributed to this performance in game 1 will not be oN the field. 

Gluck Wizer, I already had GB ML + SEA ML parlay but it is good to see you and another solid cappers are backing GB. Let's hope for the best.

Green Bay Denver super bowl?

Nice analysis.  I also took GB.

I'm thinking holding out until later as the  vig  might be more favorable after the public hits the Cardinals,which I think we will see.I think there's a general perception that the Packers are a day late and a dollar short, but the SOS #1 speaks volumes. Rodgers with a touchdown grace is solid against any team in the league.Im looking for a flat 8 and then I'm backing up the truck.Good luck

Looks good, Wizer. 

 Correction from point #2 above

    Arizona's defense scored 14 pts off 2 of  Green Bays offensive miscues. An Interception back for a TD and a fumble back for TD (GB's defense not on the field)

    Arizona's offense scored 7pts off an interception of Rodgers and  7pts off a GB fumble. That's a total of 14 pts. Both TO's recovered by Arizona defense but not advanced. Arizona's offense comes back on the field and scores on both occasions.

 Total of 28 points scored off Green Bays miscues...not 21 as stated above.

  ya think....lol   

If it goes to 8..il hit it again.

Thanks for sharing Wizer.

Good stuff.  BOL wizest.         

Good stuff as always, Wizer!

Great write-up Wize. Stay hot! 

 

Yes

 We will never be able to anticipate turnovers. However, you can include TO ratio in your capping arsenal and remove scores off turnovers from final scores.

As is your info as well...

Nice analysis....but sometimes you got to just do the eye test....arizona is simply the better team...and better teams can force turnovers...they can rush four and get pressure and GB defense will have no answer for a 14 day lay off for Arians offense....plus the crowd will be rockin....GL

My thoughts exactly. Plus we, as people always will be a little more subjective than should be. Rodgers, GB getting +7? How, why, its still Rodgers and McCarthy, blah blah, plus they've won in Wash in a convincing fashion, blah blah.
It might could turn around GB, who were struggling the whole freaking year, but i dont think it will.
Yes, they've might gained a little confidence, and Rodgers enjoyed the game but it was the Wash D. That D, which had only one sack (!!!) and like zero pressure. Arizona D is a total different animal, as well the desert is.
Plus Gruden had absolutely no idea, what and how to do and change in the gameplan, and Arians is like ten billion times the coach Gruden is.
Arizona knows how to play against GB, and they are the way better and complete team, plain and simple.

Arizona by at least a TD, yet again.