Posted:
#1976
southwest 4 hundos now thats cheap
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Lines dictates the game....
Posted:
#1978
Mb,
Haha its totally cool when we all meet up dinners on me... I havent drank in years and i look like the red lobster when i do... I will be there the thursday night before the superbowl weekend and leaving the very next monday...
I will be staying in the building to the right of my avatar... 
So if we can all meet up around there at a mall or restaurant or whatever it would be cool...
Dusty , let me know when you get booked in... When i meet up with you flights on me,, i owe you a few k?
And whomever wants to join us and will be in Vegas for the superbowl just let us know... 
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Posted:
#1982
Quote Originally Posted by kaboons:
Lol this thread has blown up , good job Boston
Lol this thread has blown up , good job Boston
Holding I might have to catch u for the next Vegas trip good luck, and mbias I'm already on Dallas plus 6.5 thanks for the extra info
Kaboons
What's going on man. If you can still make it there's still time. If not I may go back a few more times after the superbowl or even in week1 of the nfl. I usually own that week. Will need to see how I do in nba first. Summer is the only time I have completely free so we shall see. Stick around for nba every now and then.
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Posted:
#1983
Quote Originally Posted by happydude:
why are people trying to make this thread there own?
just let boston post his plays or w/e it is.
why are people trying to make this thread there own?
just let boston post his plays or w/e it is.
This is not just my thread :) its everyones who supports this 'belief's thread. I appreciate when people share their picks in this thread rather than having to look around the board for each and everyones thread. :)
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Posted:
#1985
By the way Boston, thanks for your thoughts about this thread as since the beginning which now seems a long time ago, many have joined in to share their thoughts.....One more thought here, you all surly don't think that VEGAS will have those home favs BOTH WIN and cover teasers....They'd get bludgeoned!!!!....GB it is, and looking at that very interesting TOTAL now!!!!......Hold, Boston and Dust----You 3 gotta agree with that teaser angle!.....EVERYBODY AND THEIR BROTHER WILL BE TEASING THE FAVS!!!!
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Posted:
#1986
I'm not sure what to make of the games this weekend yet. Colts really impressed me that last two weeks, and Pats D can be had, Ravens showed that.
I agree though, I think one dog could pull it off. I'm worried about Rodgers mobility against a really good D, have to keep an eye on that.
Inthetank is right about the teasers though. I bet books will be flooded with Seahawks/Pats ML Parlays and teasers for sure.
I agree though, I think one dog could pull it off. I'm worried about Rodgers mobility against a really good D, have to keep an eye on that.
Inthetank is right about the teasers though. I bet books will be flooded with Seahawks/Pats ML Parlays and teasers for sure.
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Posted:
#1990
Quote Originally Posted by iDontLose69:
Line doesn't dictate the game. You capping skill dictates your decision. If you are a pro capper, you will win in this biz. Simple as that.
Line doesn't dictate the game. You capping skill dictates your decision. If you are a pro capper, you will win in this biz. Simple as that.
Its not that simple. Theres so much more than just breaking down the matchup and breaking down the numbers. So much stuff going on behind the curtain, and thats whats interesting to find out what is.
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Posted:
#1991
i saw u guys were on the over last night. i remember week one nfl over under 54.5 colts denv it went over by a point (if my memory was right) i felt my risk reward was under yesterday. i did hedge at halftime and take over. so only made a minimal return.
hawks, packers, colts pats, all are public favorites i see no angle at all going against the public. the public loves all these teams
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Posted:
#1993
Boston,
glad to see you around... You are probably a busy man ,, if you can make it out there let us know ,, we would love to meet ya out there,, over here the weather is brutal.. I agree there so much behind the scenes than just flipping a coin...
Kaboons,,
We will be there the thursday before the superbowl and during...
I have a couple buddies that are accountants out here... I knew you had them math skills in you for some reason... Overall im up roughly 40 units or so in the playoffs... The only play that i lost a decent amount was that over,, and that was my only pick i went with my heart... What i tell everyone is learn from every loss and your percentages will dramatically increase over time... I bet alot of games so im always warmed up... Sometimes i can instantly make solid picks just eyeing the board and it just pops out at me like musical notes,, i always remember one thing,, the house always takes 2-3 before they give you 1,, by that time people either would have ran out of money or are afraid to make that decision... So some of these plays are by instinct while most i use the info that i gather and filter those out with every angle i have with the time that i have...
As for nba,, i will only give these 15 minutes or so before the game.. simply because it doesnt take much to move lines in the nba... And i know i've moved quite a few lines in the past just by pressing enter... So if i give out plays late its because i want the house to have a very minimal amount of time to think before they adjust the lines,, ofcoarse meanwhile factoring in public perception... Hoops will equal 33% of my average wager in the NFL.. However i still play many games... Sometimes when there is an over lap i actually tease basketball with football... With that said tail with caution,, im hovering between 54% & 62% for hoops on sides and totals... But for high volume games im attacking the halfs as well... So far i have about 20 teams with individual spread sheets,, sigh its hogging up all of my time and im still not done,, when it comes to hoops im honestly challeged,, theres like 10 games every single day... Which is why i designed an algo to help me short cut through this grueling process... It makes me miss the nfl so much more... Which is why i play the perecentages... When durant came back against the pelicans i faded them hard... But keeping track of who's in and who's out and is there real money on the otherside is one job in itself let alone everything else... So for nba i will post around 5-10 minutes before the game... Unless if its a private message.. i already have most of the games picked out the night before game day,, after all games ended it takes about 1-2 hours for me to feed the computer every night,, then another 1 hour so to pick them out... Where as before i was used to beating closing lines,, im just getting back to nba now with a different approach,, very similar to nfl but more stretched out... I wished i had someone with accounting skills that can sit at a desk for 10 hours like me to help out.... This would dramtically help me and my system work more efficiently and effectively... I swear half of my job is data entry & 10-20 hour days... Getting burned out but theres alot of friends and books that follow me so theres alot pressure that comes along with it...
Tank ,
Im not feeling the conference yet,, no time to look,, im just trying to gather as much as i can before i try to hit the big one... When you talk about teasers you really have to know what you are doing,, also its one thing to say the house wants to rake in the teaser money but at the same time theres also the MONEYLINE money you know? I should have something for you guys before game day... Im trying to focus on nba now.... But stick around man ,, 
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Posted:
#1997
Quote Originally Posted by HoldingXYZ:
simply because it doesnt take much to move lines in the nba... And i know i've moved quite a few lines in the past just by pressing enter...
I wanna make fun of this but it's more jaw dropping than funny. How delusional do you have to be to believe what you wrote above.
Everyone read this and understand how crazy this dude is.....he thinks sportsbook operators are sitting on covers.com waiting for his picks so they can adjust lines based on his plays. Just think about that for a sec, that's what he really believes.
This is like me saying that the Patriots wont start putting together a game plan until I tweet out what defense I think Indianapolis will be running against them.
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Posted:
#2000
Quote Originally Posted by kaboons:
I see lines move 3 PTs rt before tip off. It's not a dumb statement. I took oh st not going to watch the game I'm in pretty small today, I won big with Dallas yesterday so just picking my spots
I see lines move 3 PTs rt before tip off. It's not a dumb statement. I took oh st not going to watch the game I'm in pretty small today, I won big with Dallas yesterday so just picking my spots
The difference is you don't see the line movement and think it was YOUR bet that moved it. HoldingXYZ on the other hand, does. That's what Im shaking my head about, not about the simple line movement itself.
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