AVE OF REGULAR SEASON AND PLAYOFFS PR I........................................
Bucs 10.46
Packers 10.17
KC 8.98 .......with Mahomes
KC -7.39........with both QB'S
Bills -5.71
NFC looks to be the better teams and likely SB winner.
MY LINES...................................
Packers - 2.71 over Bucs
KC -6.27 .....with Mahomes
KC -4.68 ....with both QB's
KC -3 (+100) over Bills --- 1 unit
this may be our only play this week, will look into a few things if I have time. Let's stay patient, wait for the better oppurtunities to come along. The SB just might present a great oppurtunity, no point in trying to force a play just because it's the Championship games and/or the season is coming to an end.
NBA Playoffs will be here soon enough.
Maybe Mahomes injury or the fact they won a close game they might of lost, they look very beatable.
I'd definately take the NFC +3.5 IF IT WERE AVAILABLE NOW, in a normal year but with covid might be best to pass.
I’m not sure why you say the NFC is better. If Buffalo goes to the SB, yes. But KC beat some of the best teams in the NFL this year: Buccaneers, Saints, Buffalo, Ravens. They were dominating, winning by dd in all those games, even if a couple ended close. 
If I were you I’d also consider how difficult it is for a team to get back to the SB and repeat. The fact that they have gotten this far, when they were getting every teams best shot, while GB, Tampa and Buffalo were not getting everyone’s best shot, should somehow be factored into your data/system. But I don’t see you accounting for that important variable. Everyone gets up to play the champs, nobody cares as much about the Tampas and Buffalos of the world.
TC, you are sort of facing off against Jeff Sagarin. He has BUF at #1 and KC at #2 in his overall ratings with TB at #3 and GB at #5. His recent ratings have KC all the way down at #5. I have no ability to make power ratings, so I salute both of you.
So let's see what the Super Bowll line looks like after Sunday's games.
Good luck.
These power rankings are great and all but there is a limit to them as useful tools. Ask claw how his rankings worked out in the NBA playoffs last year. When did Buffalo catch and beat the Steelers, Niners, and Seahawks? We’re those teams playing their best football or did those teams have all kinds of issues, or were in a bad situational spot, that kept them from playing their best. When did KC beat the Ravens, Saints, Tampa, Buffalo? How well were those teams playing at the time. There are so many variables involved that it’s hard for me to judge a team purely on numbers.
Excellent points, and Sagarin does't make picks vs. the betting line - obvious edge to TheClaw.
I say there better because they play better in key stats that have high correlation to winning games and high predictive value looking forward. You can look at all those others things but I'll take these key stats any day of the week.
My PR's went through a period of 17 of 19 no. 1 teams making the championship game, actually was 18 of 19 which is quite insane, had I not picked against a no. 1 team because I listen to to many people talking about SOS and picked against my no. 1 team.
You can't just cherry pick any season to fit your ideas.
You can use all that other info if you want but I'll take the key stats every day.
This season is different because of covid, I will agree there, how teams were affected is not really known.
Here's the 2007 Pats lines in playoffs.................................
-13.5
-14
-12
wow, huge fav with lots of room to win but not cover.
Here's their lines in 2cd half of season going 2-6 ATS..........
-24
-22
-20
-19
-13
-5
Those are their 6 losses, the -5 line Pats won by 4
Here's KC's lines 2cd half of year going 1-7 ATS........ throwing out final game when KC rested starters and were +7.
-13
-11
-10
-7.5
-7.5
-3.5
WOW, double digits 3 times, over a TD twice and only 1 small line which is over the very key munber of 3 and they won by 3 and failed to cover by .5.
Once again lost of room to win but not cover except for 1 game which was over 3, very similar to 2007 Pats who also had 1 game with a smaller line over 3.
The one game they did cover in 2cd half after going 6-2 ATS in 1st half was KC -2.5, so the only line that was 3 or less the winning team covered the line.
When the line is 3 or less the SU winning team covers that line at a very, very high rate, don't think because KC is 1-8 ATS last 9 games that automatically means "IF" they win they won't cover.
If KC wins the game highly, highly likely they will cover the line.
CLOSE WINS MISMATCHES..................................................2-1 ATS, thus far
Bucs by 2 over Pack
Bills by 3 over KC
we have a play with a 3 game diff.................... 1 play on the Bills
this method rarely finishes with a losing ATS record with a 3 game diff , finshed 50% a few times.
SB MATCHUPS.......
Pack by 5 over KC
Pack by 2 over Bills
Bucs by 7 over KC
Bucs by 4 over Bills
3 of the possible matchups would be a play....... no play on any matchup would be on the AFC team.
Bucs would be a play regardless of the matchup.
If the Bills win method goes to 3-1 ATS and would finish with yet another winning ATS record.
If KC wins method goes to 2-2 ATS but will be fading KC in the SB with a great chance for another winning ATS record. But could also finish with a rare losing ATS record.
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS GUTS & STOPMS......................................
this method uses 4 categories and the team wins the most categories is the team to back.
Most years there will be best play as 1 team will win 3 of the 4 or all 4 categories and win some by big amounts, rarely will both matchups be this way but almost always 1 will.
And that 1 team wins at a pretty good rate. The closer matchups win sometimes and lose sometimes , not sure we'd gain much by backing the close matchups.
Packers win 1 category by 1 game, Bucs win 1 category by 1 game as well, with 2 categories tied. Each team won by only 1 game....... EVEN
KC wins 1 category by 2 games, Bills win 2 categories, one of those categories by 2 games which would have both teams even, then they win 1 category by only 1 game....................very slight edge to Bills by 1 game............to close to call
What's interesting here is, this is the closest I've ever seen both matchups by far, basically 1 game seperates both matchups, that's crazy close.
Possible we get both dogs winning SU ? Does not happen very often and just happened recently in 2018 although it took KC Defensive player jumping offside on a critical 4th down play and A Non-call on PI ON Rams.
Happened in 2012 season with 9ers beating Falcons and Ravens beating Pats. But the Falcons a weak no. 1 seed and Ravens a surprise team from WC ROUND WHO HAPPENED TO BE PLAYING AT A HIGH LEVEL IN PLAYOFFS.
Bucs playing at a high level in playoffs.
Happened in the 1992 season with Boys beating 9ers and Bills winning as a WC round team. Boys definately the best team that Year, Packers would be this year.
I THINK ONLY 3 TIMES SINCE 1990. So does not happen very often.
Close enough that we don't have a play, that is what I meant to say.
CLOSE WINS............................ 2-1 ATS in 2020 playoffs
Bills by 3
Bucs by 2
we have a play with a 3 pt diff.
since 2005 with a 3 pt diff................................... 48-26-1 ATS (64.66%)
12 WINNING YEARS
1 losing year............2015
2 50% years .......2014 & 2017
2019 --- 4-2-1 ATS
2018 --- 2-1 ats
2017 --- 3-3 ATS
2016 --- 3-1 ats
2015 ---2-3 ATS
14-10-1 (58%) ATS past 5 years
POWER RATING II.......................................... with a 6 pt diff to actual closing line we have a play
Packers 11.03
Bucs 5.21
Pack -8.82 over Bucs......huge lean to Packers, line needs to drop to 2.5 to have on play on Pack
KC 7.22
Bills 6.69
KC -3.53 over Bills.........slight lean to KC
Since 2000 PR I in conference finals.................................................................My Lines favorite.....
28-12 SU (70%).....25-14-1 ATS (63.75%).................10-3 ATS (76.9%)with a 6 pt diff
6 pt home fav or less on My Lines................
8-4 SU (66.67%)----(5-7 ATS)
TEAMS OVER 6 pt home favorites on My Lines..................................
20-8 SU (71.4%) --- 20-7-1 ATS (73.2%)................if we throw-out the 10-3 ATS record with a 6 pt diff 10-4-1 ATS (70%)
about what you can expect, smaller favorites do not do as well as the bigger favorites AND TEAMS WITH A 6 PT DIFF TO CLOSING LINE DO BETTER THEN TEAMS UNDER A 6 PT DIFF, ALTHOUGH ALL TEAMS DO VERY WELL IN THIS SPOT.
FINISHED ...........
2-0 ATS ....8 times
1-1 ATS.....10 times
0-1-1 ATS ....1 time
0-2 ATS.......1 time
POWER RATINGS II......................................
Pack -6.97 over Bucs
KC -4.53 over Bills
since 2009......................fav on My Lines
14-8 SU (63.6%)........13-8-1 ATS (61.4%)..........2-3 ATS (40%) with a 6 pt diff to closing line ...........WITH A 2-5.99 diff to closing line 6-1 ATS (85.7%)....INTERESTING
Finished.............
2-0 ATS 4 times
1-1 ATS 5 times
0-1-1 ATS 1 times
0-2 ATS 2 times
PR I no. 1 ranked teams since 2009............................................
2009 Saints 14.04.... won SB...2-1 ats
2010 Steelers 12.75.....lost SB, 2-1 ATS
2011 Packers 13,83.....lost 1st game....0-1 ATS.....Packers defense ranked at the bottom and they were out-gianed in total yds not the formula for SB winners
2012 9ers 14.07.....lost SB.....TO SURPRISE wc ROUND TEAM. 1-1-1 ATS depends line you got in NFC TITLE GAME
2013 Seattle 14.34.....won SB......2-1 ATS
2014 Packers 11.21 .....lost in NFC title game to Seahawks.....1-1 ATS
2015 Seattle 12.86.......lost div round......0-2 ATS, back to back SB team = overvalued on line
2016 Pats 11.8.....won SB .....3-0 ATS
2017 Eagles 10.5 ....won SB.....3-0 ATS......LOST starting QB
2018 BEARS 10.5......LOST 1ST GAME..........0-1 ATS
2019 Ravens 15.7 , lost 1st game .....0-1 ATS
2020 Packers 11.03......1-0 ATS
TEAMS RANKED LOWER THEN 11.5 ................didn't do that well
Bears 10.5
Packers 11.21
both failed to make the SB , although 2014 easily could of with Packers up 19-7 on Seahawks who needed alot of breaks to win, but Seahawks were no. 1 ranked in PR II and no. 1 over-all.
2017 Eagles 10.81 did make SB but they were ranked no. 1 in PR II 12.97 AND NO. 1 OVERALL.
ONCE WE UNDERSTAND WHY Bears and Packers did not make the SB we have left 2011 Packers, 2015 Seahawks and 2019 Ravens
2011 Packers had terrible defense ranked last or next to last in total yards and were out-gained in total yds, these teams do not do well in playoffs.
2015 Seahawks lost to Panthers who were no. 1 ranked in PR II and no. 1 ranked overall, but were very lucky to get out of 1st round.
so 2 no. 1 ranked teams in PR I lost to no. 1 ranked teams in PRII who happened to be better in both PR'S combined.
another team had a terrible low ranked defense and out-gained in total yds
once we by-pass these 3 teams, 6 of the reamaining 8 teams made the SB.............................OF THE 2 TEAMS DID NOT MAKE THE SB the Bears were the lowest ranked no. 1 team at 10.5.
the other team 2019 Ravens, the one case we could make is Ravens were by far the hottest team coming into the playoffs and those teams rarely do well in their 1st playoff game, they lose SU about 50% , Bills could of lost SU this year but hung-on to survive, once they survive the 1st round they do better. but Ravens are the only no. 1 Ranked team that other then being the hottest is tough to explain why they did not make the SB.
Well, we have Jackson who can not pass effectively in big moments.
Packers though are ranked somewhat low for a no. 1 team at 11.03, yea no doubt that is a little worrisome . Teams should be up around 12 or better.
Same with PR II........TEAMS UNDER 12.....
Saints 9.14 in 2020, lost div round.... won SU & ATS only because no. 2 seed in WC
Texans 9.7 in 2018...lost 1st game
Boys 10.83 in 2016.....lost 1st game
6 OF REMAING 9 TEAMS MADE THE SB.......2009 VIKINGs lost to no. 1 Saints in PR I and no. 1 team overall. now 6 of 8 teams made SB
OF THE 2 TEAMS did not make the SB.... 2011 Texans lost their starting QB and back-up QB and went with a 3rd stringer, they lost in div round but won in WC and went 2-0 ATS
NOW WE HAVE 6 OF 7 TEAMS MADE THE SB...............YEP the only remaining team is 2019 Ravens.
Moral of the story......if the Packers were higher rated I would make a play on them , but with Bucs playing the better in playoffs thus far and Packers not being as strong as other top teams and they did not rate that high in 1st game in playoffs may pass on this game.
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