correct. but KC has the advantage in the fact both regular season and playoff only PR's rarely go 0-2 ATS, so KC has to win and cover and they did. neither PR once again went 0-2 ATS
PLAYOFF ONLY WENT 2-0 ATS, REGULAR SEASON WENT 1-1 ATS. Can't beat that. works like a charm almost every year.
According to PR I ........KC outplayed the Bills and should of won by 16.33 pts, almost right on their final margin.
Packers outplayed the Bucs and should of won by 5.86 pts.
NFL teams will not lose very many games when they win the QBPR by 27.8 and win the TO battle and win the total yards battle. Bucs did win the ave per pass battle by a good amount of 1.5 yds, thanks to the sacks on Rodgers with Brady getting sacked just once.
Last week we talked about how the Bucs play on the field was way better then the final score and that is a positive for the next game. This week it's the opposite , Bucs play on the field much worse then final score and that is a negative the next game.
I thought the big dagger was the TD by Bucs right before half. That was ust a great read by Brady to find the best matchup, no way should a team give up a TD in that spot.
I didn't think Brady would play all that well as he has had moments of bad play this season. And he didn't play well but somehow he survived those 3 INT's . Once a QB throws his 2cd INT the probabilities he will win goes way, way down. After a 3rd INT , wow , they don't win very often.
Rogers just did not step up to the plate, Bucs defense deserves alot of credit for this game.
The FG at the end of 4th was maybe the worst call I have ever seen, even worse the Seahawks pick play on the 1 yard line with the Beast in the backfield.
At that point in the game , there's no way around Packers need to incur risks, which part of your team do you want to take on those risk ? The weaker part your defense or the strength , your passing game with your best Player who just had an historically great year ?
If you don't get it, your defense still needs to hold 3 and out either way, the big difference is field position getting the ball back will be much better if they do hold.
The disadvantage is you need to score A 2 pt conversion but kicking the FG you don't need to make a 2 pt. But you bring up the possibility of not getting the ball back.
So those 2 things are what the debate is about, can we score a 2 pt conversion or can we stop Bucs 3 and out. coach decides he has a better chance to stop Bucs 3 and out over his best player and strength of his team scoring a 2 pt conversion.
When I saw then bringing out the FG kicker I said that's it, game is over, Packers won't get the Ball back. And even if they are lucky enough to doubtful they'll have the time to drive the length of the field they'd need to tie the game.
The info crushed the PR you follow that had Bills no. 1. Bills were the worst of the 3 teams, hardly no. 1. And my number 1 in playoff only is still alive. I also pointed out my no. 1 in regular season was a weaker no. 1 which has a history of not winning the SB.
did PR's you follow point that out about Bills ?
Regular Season PR 1...............................
KC 7.22
Bucs 5.21
KC - 2.01 over Bucs
Magic Stat PR...................
KC 10.74
Bucs 8.41
KC -2.33 over Bucs
Playoff Only PR 1...............
KC 13.54
Bucs 12.77
KC -.77 over Bucs
Do Bucs get pts for HF ? Well, good question. Since we have no history of giving pts for HF for SB teams, I'd think likely not. The other thing is nobody knows who the crowd will be for anyway.
I think it's 22,000 tickets being sold with 7500 going free to vaccinated heathcare workers and the remaing being sold to anyone wants them.
In a normal year only around 8800 tickets are given to each team for players families and friends and the teams fans. So there really is no HF from a fans perspective. The only home field is not traveling and being fimilar with the faucilities and field.
So just off the top of my head I'd say no to any HF advantage.
Much like we pointed out with a small line of 3 or less if KC won the game they'd cover the spread. Just like the 2018 Pats VS Rams SB when Pats line was 3.
Here's what's very interesting about those 2, KC with their smallest line since midseason when they went 1-8 ATS, WON BY THEIR LARGEST MARGIN since midseason.
Pats -3 was their smallest line as a fav, they might have been -1 VS Seahawks or PK, but they to won by their largest margin with a smaller -3 line.
THE 2007 Pats who went 2-6 ATS 2cd half, never had a -3 line in playoffs, double digit lines and the same in SB and went 0-3 ATS.
Both teams won and covered when the line got smaller down to 3 with a very, very high probability of the winning team covering the line. But they both struggled to cover with larger lines.
Playoff only PR I was incredible going 2-0 ATS and winning yet again with a 6 pt diff to closing line on the Bucs who were the fav in the game according to the PR and they won SU as well.
6 pt diff in line now goes to 6-1-1 ATS in the 7 seasons.
The weakest team the Bills lost and now goes to 2-5 SU and 2-4-1 ATS for the weakest team in conference finals in those 7 years.
The Bills somehow were able to win at a better rate then their play on the field said they would, but that can't last forever and it didn't.
Bucs did not rate out very strong in regular season but didn't have all that great a record like the Bills at 11-5, but in playoffs they turned it up to another level something the Bills never did.
Bills made great strides , especially Allen, but they will have some regression indicators pointing to a fall-back next year. Not very likely they will win at a similar rate next year unless they elevate their game even more which is not very likely, if anything their play falls-back some.
Remember we talked in the preseason how KC had no regression indicators against them coming off a SB win and we said they could be even better this year over last year.
I don't think the Bills will be in this same spot next year like KC did.
Now that we talked about with a line of 3 or less the winning team covers the line a very high probabilty of the time.
It's very interesting that all 3 PR's have KC favored to win but with a lean to the Bucs on the line. If KC wins with a line of 3 or less mostly likely they will cover the -3. But if the line goes up then the probability goes down obviously.
With regular season PR I line of -2 or better the fav wins SU a high rate of time. And we have KC -2.01 .
But now we use the defense-adjusted PR I...........................................This PR actually works the best in SB's
Bucs recieve 1.12 additional pts for the better defense .......
KC -.89 over Bucs
when the line drops below 2 the favorite wins SU slightly less then 50% of the games. This is the spot where we do see upsets indicating a very close game but not at a high rate.
we still need a 6 pt diff to have a play which we won't get.
how about the playoffs...................................
defense-adjusted gives Bucs recieve .68 pts, never tried this in playoff only PR but it still verifies that the Bucs are better in the key indicators on defense.
So in other words KC wasn't sleep walking through the 2cd half of season and not playing as well as they could on defense, well their defense got better but so did the Bucs , so it's not like KC's poor play the 2cd half caused the Bucs to have the better defense in regular season .
The biggest pt getter for Bucs defense was rushing yards, Bucs won by 41.57 yds per game in regular season and almost 35 yds in playoffs. Which seems to indicate if the Bucs are going to win this game they need to run the ball successfully and keep Mahomes on the bench and they'd be doing that into KC's weakness on defense.
I doubt Brady will play better then Mahomes in this game, how's that old saying go.....................................
older past their prime players may bring alot of hope but rarely deliver a championship.
Mahomes is an all-time great player in the prime of his career, at his peak physical abilities while Brady is not. Brady can still play well and will have moments in this game but very doubtful he can do that over the entire game as consistently as Mahomes will.
The Bucs will need to run and run and run some more similar to what the Pats did to Rams And to P. Manning in 2005 playoffs with Cory Dillion when they set records for long drives.
Of course we don't know what Arians will do but the info leads me to believe the UNDER will be the right play.
@theclaw
Like the under as well here Claw......the biggest Wild card in this game is Arians.... what is more likely though,
Arians goes Belichickian and runs the ball 30 times in this game OR does not stay disciplined enough to stick with a ground and pound game plan?
Buccs are horrible running on 1st down then throw the ball on 2nd and 3rd downs at the highest % clip in the league... If they continue with this plan then Brady is going to get into 3rd and long situations, which won't be good for them.
Yea, who knows what Arians might do.
Interesting about Bucs on 1st down. Last year 9ers rushed fore 141 yds on 22 carries a very strong 6.4 yds per rush. And they were up 10 pts going into the 4th quarter. KC didn't score untill 6:13 left in the game and somehow were able to win by 11.
it worked pretty well running the ball but then they couldn't get 1st down's any more and gave Mahomes the ball.
in their playoff games Bucs rushed for 142, 127, and only 76 VS Packers BUT STILL WON because Rodgers couldn't take advantage of the 3 INT, Mahomes will kill you if that happens.
CLOSE WINS MISMATCHES............................SUPER BOWL
2-2 ATS in playoffs, we have a play with a 3 game diff
KC 8-1= 7
Bucs 3-3= 0
Bucs by 7
wow, a 7 pt mismatch is a huge mismatch and with the method at 50% and having only 1 losing season since 2005 the method suggests the Bucs are the right play.
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS GUTS & STOMPS...............................0-1 ATS in Championship games
Bucs win 3 of 4 categories, they win 2 categories by 1 game and another by 3.
Close wins VS teams with losing records is the kiss of death..........................Bucs 3 --- KC 4...................BUCS by 1
Blowout wins VS teams with losing records has PRODUCED the most wins.............................Bucs 5 --- KC 4..............BUCS BY 1
We compare the diff........................Bucs 5 blowout wins - 3 close wins = +2
......................................................KC 4 - 4 = 0
Bucs blowout wins VS teams with winning records 1.............KC 1
Close wins VS teams with winning records Bucs 0..........KC 3
Bucs blowout wins VS teams with winning records 1 - 0 close wins = +1
..........................................................KC 1-3 = (-2)
The info suggests the BUCS are the right play and when we add in the fact that this method rarely finishes with a losing record and needs a win to accomplish that.
Lol. Claw. This is the same type of info you were putting out during the NBA playoffs. And as I recall, it didn’t work out. Not at all. But maybe I’m mistaken and you can post your NBA playoffs results here.
Here is my question to you: as a math and stats guy, how in the hell do you account for the role Covid played in how these teams performed this year against opponents that were also impacted by Covid? Seriously. How do you account not just for things like players being out one week, but in the next, due to Covid protocols, and home field advantage, which was non existent, but also, and most importantly, how Covid has affected players and coaches, on a personal/psychological level, which then translates into performance? And you can’t just say the Covid variable affected everyone equally so it doesn’t really matter. That is simply not true. Each team, each coach, each player handled it differently and was affected differently. And all the math in the world will not be able to account for this variable, just as it couldn’t with the NBA last year. 
@begginerboy
I wish I could remember the source and the timing I had heard this piece of info on the Buccs... It want to say it was just before their bye week or maybe a game or two after it. The stat was about "consistency" ratings and the level of variance a team would play week to week. KC was the top rated team for consistency and the Buccs & Titans had the lowest "consistency" ratings in the league.
The odds of Tampa having a "less than" their average performance are greater than KC's odds of having "less than" their average but Tampa's odds of having a "great than" their average performance are also much higher than KC's. Outright Tampa win vs. KC win by 2 scores 
That is very interesting. If you go down and read the comments, many brought up good points disagreeing with that info.
The thing I would point out is KC is the only SB winner to fall behind by double digits in every postseason game and come back and win.
So are they not trying to start games as well ?? They fell behind 24-0 VS Texans, did they not try there ?? If not for a missed extra point they'd been behind by double digits VS Bills as well, making 4 of their past 5 postseason games falling behind by double digits.
So are they not trying to start games as well as not trying to finishing games ??
When you add that in, it looks more like the Chiefs have strong and weak moments in many games, sometimes the weak moments come at the start and sometimes they come at the end.
But then you have this.................ESPN QBR takes into consideration when a QB throws a INT, if they do with a big lead that INT carries less weight, what the QB does with a close score is more important, so Brady threw 3 INT's but with a big lead so the QBR for that game was not a big difference between Brady and Rodgers.
So why would that theory apply to KC but not Bucs and Brady ? Brady at that point in the game can afford to take risks and for all we know he could of been taking risks he otherwise would not have taken.
Maybe there could be something to it, I wouldn't necassarilty rule it out but maybe there isn't, definately something to think about.
By my #'s, KC 1st half is a decent play, and TB could be a great 2H play depending what # is posted at halftime.
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