IT'S PLAYOFF TIME.......................................2020/2021

ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL ??? It's Playoff Time.............................

Been a very crazy year to say the least, not sure how things will go as who knows which teams may have been hurt by covid and which teams benefitted by covid or by how much. But I'm still a believer that the best teams do make themselves know and at least one of the top teams will be in the SB.

POWER RATINGS I................................................. and the best team is............................

1. Packers 11.03

2. Saints 10.18

3. Ravens 7.7

4. KC 7.22

5. Seahawks 6.88

6. Bills 6.69

7. Titans 5.81

8. Steelers 5.75

9. Rams 5.6

10. Colts 5.28

11. Bucs 5.21

12. Browns 2.68

13. Skins (-1.44)

14. Bears (-2.83)

Couple of things stand out, one being quite a big drop-off after the top 2 teams and the Ravens being the best team in the AFC.

Bucs don't rank very high which is a bit of a surprise, Passer rating margin is not very good at 7.9 , you don't see teams win SB's as low as they are unless the team has a very strong run game, offense and defense, which Bucs only ave 95 yards per game and outrush teams by 14.38 yards.

BILLS MOVE UP SOME AFTER ANOTHER BIG PERFORMANCE IN WEEK 17 BUT STILL RANK JUST 6TH.

Browns are not very good, be surprised if they can win 1 game, but now with covid looks impossible.

MY LINES..........................................................normally we give 3 pts for home field, this season might be different, I still think team's should get something but how much is quess work at best so for now I'll inclusde the 3 pts for playing at homebecause for one, we will need this to compare to past results in some methods.  If anyone thinks they deserve less then make the adjustment as you feel it's needed.

Saints -16.01 over Bears

Bucs -3.65 over Skins

Seahawks -4.28 over Rams

Bills -4.41 over Colts

Steelers -6.07 over Browns

Titans -1.11 over Ravens

We have a play with a 6 pt difference to the closing line.............which at this time would be on the Saints, but let's wait out the line.

We also have a play on the best team of all the seeds 3 or lower which is normally the wild card round teams......................Ravens.

Let's be patient guys, to many issues could arise be this weekend so let's wait things out. The worst thing you want is losing for some players foolishness that cost the team players being out.

Will have close win mismatches tommorrow..................

and a new PR that  I   developed after I discovered a magic stat   from which 1 of the top 2 made the SB 14 of the past 17 years. Basically I took the magic stat plus Passer Rating margin since the ave SB is around 27 and total yards margin since most SB outgain opps by at least 38 yards or more, the more yards the stronger the SB winners seems to play in the playoffs and asigned each a value BASED on past SB winners and added up the total of each indicator to get the PR. Magic stat carries the most wieght with Passer rating only a small amount  behind and total yards margin carries the least , maybe 15 %.

CLOSE WIN MISMATCHES..................................................

And the team with the most 1 score close wins is..........................................KC and Seahawks with 8, KC has only 1 close loss while Seahawks have 3 close losses. Makes KC +7,  most in the league. Steelers, Browns and Titan all have 7.

We have a play with a 3 game difference................................................

Saints over Bears by 2

Skins over Bucs by 2

 Colts over Bills by 1

Steelers/Browns even

Rams over Seahawks by 5

Ravens over Titans by 7

We have 2 plays, one on  Rams and one on Ravens. 

Both Rams and Ravens have the most close losses at 4, while KC and Bills have the fewest close losses with 1. To many close wins and few close loses  means a team got a bit lucky in those games as these things tend to even out over time. Had the Bills lost 2 of their close wins they'd be 11-5 and had the Ravens won 2 of their close loses they'd be the one sitting at 13-3. It really is splitting hairs as to how close a team can be from not being  as good as they seem or much better then they seem.

Kc at 4 huh lol.  The bills are miles better than the Seahawks 

Thanks Claw, respect your work 

Question though, KC had only 1 loss and the Bills only 3 losses.  Does this matter when using your parameters?  Throwing out the week 17 bye week loss, the single loss on the resume happens to be a close loss.  How is this, and the Bills number factor into being a negative? 

love it when were on the same page Claw. keep up the good work 

The Ravens can't hold the Chiefs jock strap Claw...we've seen that movie already! Hell, the Bills may win the Superbowl and you have at 6 LOL good luck with your plays. 

I don't consider record at all, just key stats. The issue with both KC and the Bills is they get outgained in rushing yards, not by alot but they get negative pts for that. Where Seahawks get positive pts. Getting pts in every indicator is key to a very good rating.

But teams like KC with a great QB can over-come this and certainly play better then the PR suggest. Not sure if I'd put Allen in that class yet, but it might be possible he could, as of now I'd pass on the Bills.

Also if you look at KC, they have 8 close one score wins, that is normally not what you find with SB winners, plus they have a losing record VS the spread, I don't think any team won SB with that. KC although they might have only 1 loss are not playing at a very high level  with so many close wins.

I still think It'll be KC or Ravens out of AFC, but KC will get beat in SB if they get there, depending of course on who comes out of NFC.

Yes that does seem to be the "perception", and it might prove to be true.  I won't be surprised if it was true or was not true, but we'll find out soon.

I really doubt Bills will win the SB, KC might beat the Ravens, I'll give you that one, any more today a great QB is all you need to win, but don't be surprised if the Ravens roll into KC and and walk out the winner.

Whether Jackson can pass the ball well enough is questionable, I'll definately agree with that.  But hey, even Dilfer passed the ball well enough to win a SB when he was on a very good team.

Good Luck in the playoffs and thanks for sharing 

Here's my new Power Rating including the magic stat which carries the most weight followed by a close 2cd QB Passer Rating Margin and total yards margin with 15% weight. Now this PR explains things maybe alittle better, but we;ll see which one has a better result in playoffs.

I researched this a little bit but likely will need to fine-tune it over the next 2 or 3 years, maybe even before next weekend if I look into it some more.

1. Packers 13.67

2. Saints 11.39

3. KC 10.74

4. Bills 9.93

5. Ravens 9.91

6. Bucs 8.41

7. Steelers 8.32

8. Seahawks 6.99

9. Colts 5.41

10. Rams 4.69

11. Titans 2.48

12. Browns .38

13.Skins (-.4)

14. Bears (-1.68)

Packers still come out on top as they move up to no. 3 in magic stat, a shade below 2cd place. With Saints still 2cd, KC now moves up close to 2cd, I still think Packers would beat the Chiefs or Bills  if they meet in SB. Rodgers has had an historically great year with Passer Rating and they are doing other things well enough to be very dangerous in the playoffs. This is not the 2011 15-1 Packers .

Bills move up here as well as do the Bucs, it looks based on "perception" a better Rating for sure.

MY LINES..........................................

Saints -16.07 over Bears 

Seahawks -5.3 over Rams

Bucs -5.81 over Skins

Bills - 7.52 over Colts

Steelers - 10.74 over Browns

Ravens -4.43 over Titans

This PR is a little closer to the actual lines, Saints still stand out big over Bears. as do the Steelers somewhat  and the PR still has Skins the better value over the Bucs.

Another way to use this magic stat is to add it in to PR I as it is a very, very good stat and needs to be added in at some point. The issue is how much value should it carry ? To know this takes time to do the research and I don't have that time now but we can try and make a somewhat  educated Quess at it.

Thank You.....................

GL Claw

Thanks for sharing your knowledge indeed definitely something to think about

@theclaw

 thanks 

EVERYONE loves the bills, me included. I'm rooting for them. I see them winning it all. They have something special going on. Colts spread.

Rams roll. Wolford pull a 2018 Foles? Defense wins championship 

Pitt rolls

Saints roll

TB tough read but probably free. Books somehow made the skins a public darling

Baltimore covers, Tennessee hasn't faced a good team in over a month, GB is mediocre.

Favorites go 4-2

Once again, thank you for all your time and effort.  Good luck in the playoffs.

@theclaw

 Time will tell, good luck 

Thanks for the read CLAW!

Sagarin has HFA at 0.37 ppg this season.

Interesting, thanks