IT'S PLAYOFF TIME.......................................2020/2021

TEAMS RANKED NO. 1 IN BOTH PR I & PR II................................................

2010 Steelers , lost in SB

2012 ...9ERS, lost in SB

2013 Seahawks, won SB

2014 Seahawks, lost in SB

2017 Eagles , won SB

2019 Ravens, lost opening playoff game.

5 of the 6 no. 1 ranked teams in both PR's made the SB , WITH 2 WINNING BUT 3 LOSING. once again the only team being the Ravens

Here's the importance of using playoff only PR I as well as regular season.....................

2010 Packers -12.9 over Steelers

2012 Ravens -8.8 over 9ERS

2014 Pats -3.47 over Seahawks 

all 3 teams that lost in SB should of lost according to Playoff only PR I.

OF THE 2 TEAMS THAT WON..........................

2013 Seahwks -3.03 over Broncos

2017 Eagles -16.63 over Pats, and they did this with Foles at QB.

both teams no. 1 ranked in both PR I & PR II AND ALSO played better in playoffs won SU as dogs.

WE won't have this situation this year but tells us the importance of being higher rated and playing well in playoffs. 

Thanks for the response.

Amazing work Claw, I hope it pays off for you 

always a good read, always interesting data....provides a perspective unlike any other around here 

your welcome......

thank you..............

Based on close wins having a play on Bills and PR I 6 pt favs or less on my lines being only 5-7 ATS I'll buy-out of my KC play.

Bills +3 (+105) over KC --- 1 unit

since I got both plays at a good price won't lose any juice.

Not sure if I'll add another unit or 2 on Bills or not as any lean in PR I that is less then 6 pts from closing line still hits at 70%, which at this time is on KC.

Need to look into playoff only for a possible play on Packers and maybe Bills.

Few trends FOR CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES  I heard online.....................................

teams off a game being outgained by 100 yards like Bills were ........1-5 ATS 

teams gave up 6 pts or fewer  like the Bills did ....5-3...5-2-1 ATS 

defending champs from week 12 and on when 4 pts fav or less 8-19-1 ATS 

TEAMS BETTER IN RED ZONE LIKE Packers are over Bucs 34-17 ATS

TEAMS OFF 2 GAMES of 55% completions or less and on the road like Bucs ...5-10 ATS

NOW here's the whopper................................

teams off a championship game loss last year like Packers and playing a team off double digit win, Bucs 30-20 winners over Saints .....22-3 ATS

APPLIED to Packers last week as well with Rams off double digit win.

This particular stat surprised me beause I don't think of GB as having a great pass DEF:  GB is #1 allowing the fewest passing yards at home this season.

Jaire Alexander is the #1 rated CB in the nfl.

Adrian Amos has been a top 5 safety all year.

Kevin King is ok at CB, looks below average in some games.

Darnell Savage 75.3 rating by pff. Great chemistry with Amos.

They haven't had much stability at the Nickel position. Kind of a revolving door this year. Jaire Alexander doesn't travel, which was talked about/suggested in early December. But Pettine doesn't want him in the slot.

With AB being ruled out, this relieves some pressure on the Pack. They should see more Scotty Miller and 2 TE sets. Just from the eye test, looks like Brady has been targeting Brate more often in recent games.

Claw every week you’ve been saying the Bills are going to regress and now you hop on their bandwagon well I’m here to tell you not with my money. Your pick of Bills +3 is comical b/c your betting into a bad line that is deflated for the Chiefs backers. Bills have benefited from soft lines for the last several weeks and now the chiefs have that benefit after having been inflated favorites for the last several weeks. Chiefs -3 for me. Your Bills will finally regress tomorrow.

Stanford Steve is one of the analysts who frequently appears on the Daily Wager sports betting show on the ESPN channels.  He likes this prop bet:  Brate over 2.5 receptions.

Good luck.

WOW, THAT'S SUPRISING..........

INTERESTING, LOOKS LIKE PACKERS GOT SOME VERY GOOD DEF BACKS.................................

You have such an Uncanny Knack for being on the Wrong side of everything Buffer, I've never seen anything like it.

I'm not on the Bills, I bought out of my KC pick at a great price that I guaranteed a winning .05 units, that was my only goal. 

In other words I don't have any play on the Bills game.

I looked into PRI playoff only for conference finals...................went back 5 years but couldn't find 2014 or 2013 but did have 2012. Could of found those 2 years if I wanted to go through other things but choose not to.

In those 6 years............my lines was...............6-5-1 ATS.............WITH A 6 PT diff to closing line 5-1-1 ATS.......which means under a 6 pt diff is 1-4 ATS ......

WENT 2-0 ATS 1 TIME

1-0-1 ATS  1 time 

1-1 ATS 3 TIMES 

0-2 ATS 1 TIME

IT DOES NOT GO 0-2 ATS very often, although we don't have alot of season but still appears it does not. These indicators seem to go 2-0 ATS and 1-1 ATS about the same number of years, with maybe the 1-1 being slightly ahead, but rarely going 0-2.

If that's the case then KC has to cover or  one PR is going 0-2, either regular season or playoff only.

Playoff only only went 0-2 in 2019, last year but both games were very close to actaul line and 9ers -7.68 over Packers with line opening -7, then to -7.5 then closing at -8. So only 0-2 based on that closing line but easy enough to win that game before line went to -8.

2020....................

Bucs -3.39 over Packers

KC -5.84 over Bills ....with both QB's 

KC -9.02 ....with only Mahomes in the game

we don't know how Mahomes would of finished the game, he could of played better, or worse or about the same. He may be somewhat limited as well so even if we use both QB's KC a lean .

On the surface that record with a 6 pt diff looks pretty strong, however when we look deeper we find that 3 of the winning teams were also fav big in regular season, 2 by over 6 pts to closing line and 1 by 5.48 to closing line, opposite of the Bucs here who are , my line is almost to 6 pt diff on GB in regular season.

And the other 2 winners my lines in regular season was very small diff less then 2 pts in both .

There is one game almost exactly like this game...2016 Pats VS Steelers.

Steelers -.14 over Pats in playoff only, line opend Pitt +6  which was a 6 pt diff but went to +5.5 which then was not, just under.

Regular season line was...Pats -10.46...almost a 5 pt diff....and the regular season PR I was correct.

Based on what I see here, seems the playoff only is very good if regular season line is close to actual line, but if regular season line is not close then regular season wins out.

Another thing........................

the best team in playoff only won 3 of the 6 SB's including the last 2.....Bucs 

the worst team was 2-4 advancing to SB and 2-3-1 ATS....Bills

Rams were a worst team to make SB and we all know how that game ended.

2015 Broncos the onLy worst team to win SB..... WITH AN HISTORICALLY GREAT DEF

Points to KC advancing and if KC wins almost certainly they cover the line as we already went over.

But we still needed to respect close wins matchup on Bills.

We already went over some Packer years with Rodgers, 2011, 2014 when Pack led 19-7 and lost after a series of unlikely events., and 2016 when M. Ryan was historical.

Let's look at some other years and once again we'll use the Magic Stat PR................

2019....LAST YEAR.

9ERS 12.64..................9ers - 10.77......actual line closed at -8, opened -7

Packers 4.87

Packers were not very good, 9ers clearly the better team, can't really expect Rodgers to win that game.

Packers -3.82 over Seahawks in div round, Pack -4.5, they won by 5 pts.

2012 Packers, remeber it well, as many here on Pack VS 9ers because Rodgers was better then Cap. 9ers my no. 1 ranked team and I called for a big double digit win , 9ers won by 14.

9ers 11.49.....9ers -3.81.....line 9ers -3

Pack 10.68

now there's a game maybe Rodgers coulds of won but not like they were clearly the better team that could be expected to win. 9ers were the better team and much better based on PR II plus being at home, can't put alot of fault on Rodgers as 9ers were very strong team.

Seahawks actual the best team that year at 13.6

Seahawks -4.86 over Skins ...line Sea -3,  I had Skins based on PR II  MANY THOUGH THAT WAS CRZY , Skins covered 1st half, but RGIII tore his ligament with a lead in the game.

Seahawks -1.78 over Falcons in div .....line Sea +2.5...........in this game we did have a 4 pt diff to closing line , Sea lost by 2 pts but cover the +2.5

Calm down Claw take a Xanax I know your excited today 

I want recaps on all the conference championship games in the 70’s

Mgic Stat PR.................................

Packers 13.67

KC 10.74

Bills 9.93

Bucs 8.41

Packers -8.26 over Bucs

KC -3.81 over Bills

Packers -3 (115) over Bucs --- 2.3 units

going to be a great sports day for sure, looks like we have some pretty exciting games with lots of twists and turns. 

Hopefully the Magic Stat PR WILL DELIVER ONE MORE TIME.  

I want the power ratings for my Oilers of the 70’s

we have a play with a 4 pt diff.......................... unless the line goes to Pack -4 we have a play on Pack.

Hey, now that would be interesting but not likely they were better then the Steelers, I can tell you that without looking it up because I am aware of each teams stats back then. Oilers were a good team that played a little better then they were, Steelers were a great team.....................................

I miss the love ya blue days and Monday night football! Yes Steelers were great and they always got the calls. Do you have numbers for my Oilers when they blew the big game at Buffalo?

@theclaw

 So KC has a slight edge in the MPR stat but significant disadvantage in the close wins stat right?