Posted:
#101
Quote Originally Posted by darren3472:
@theclaw What you playing tomorrow?
@theclaw What you playing tomorrow?
As of now not much for tommorow.
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IT'S PLAYOFF TIME.......................................2020/2021
Posted:
#105
Ravens out-played the Bills in a number of areas, Ravens gained 120 more yards, ave .7 more per play, Jackson had a much higher ave per pass then Allen but When we factor in sacks, Jackson sacked a higher % of passes then Allen wins by a paltry .2.
The big difference was Jackson had 1 INT and Allen had 0, Allen had 1 TD pass and Jackson had 0. That equates to almost a 25 pt QBPR win for the Bills.
Of course the pick 6 was the difference in this game, at least a 10 pt swing as Ravens likely get the FG , PICK 6 IS VERY DIFFICULT TO OVER-COME IN A PLAYOFF GAME looking back over history, but especially in this spot with Ravens right there to score themselves.
Even had there been no INT just an incompletion, the Ravens still may have lost this game as it very likely was coming right down to finally possesion where either team could win. They could of won as well but over-coming a pick 6 and big defecit was not going to happen.
The one concern we talked about, Jackson being able to pass effectively came to fruition, the answer is, NO, he can't. End of this story right there.....
According to PR I Bills should of won the game by just 3.28 pts not 14 pts, this was a very close game where the big difference was the 1 TO BY Jackson.
Bills WC win was by 6.16 over Colts = ave of 4.72, not very good going into AFC Championship game.
We can get a line off just playoff games and it works fairly well, should get at least 1 win next week with this and usually has a best bet which is the winner.
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Posted:
#107
How about those Packers ..............
, they rolled this supposed no. 1 defense. Thanks to the magic stat we were on the Pack .
Pack out-gained the Rams by a whopping 240 putting up 484 yards on this supposed no. 1 defense.
Rodgers won the ave per pass big-time over Goff by 3.4 yards, Rodgers put up 8.2 ave per pass with sacks included, to Goff's paltry 4.8 and Packers crushed the Rams in running game by 92 yards. No TO in this game, Rodgers only won the QBPR battle by 2.2 as he was held quite a bit below his season ave but still played well enough.
When we add it all up, according to PR I Packers should of won this game by 9.31 PTS, not quite the 14 pt margin but's that's acceptable .
According to the Magic Stat PR Pack should of won by 10.74 pts. The big difference being the 240 yards being by far the most pts in any area.
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Posted:
#110
SUNDAY GAMES.......................................
The interesting game of course being Saints VS Bucs. Bucs just don't rate-out very well, they don't look like a SB winner while the Saints do. Bus have one of the best PT Margins but their play on the field does not support that hefty PT Margin.
Home fav over 5 PT in PR I generally at least will win the game SU, with a line of only -3 the team that wins SU is very, very likely to cover such a low number, so we could make a case to play the Saints.
If we combined both PR I $ II as we've done in other years to get our no. 1 ranked team and favorite to win the SB that's be the Saints but it is close with Packers.
In the 4 games Hill played QB , Saints actually rated better in PR II, AVE OF 11.81, however, one of those games and one of best ratings Saints had in any game came VS Broncos who played without a QB because of covid. If we throw-out that Denver game, Saints rating drops to 7.87, now we basically have almost a tie for the best team with Packers.
NO. 1 Rated teams in PR II which would be the Saints are not good plays if they are low rated as the Saints are.
Saints are the better balanced team , I'd lean more to Saints winning and covering but will pass on the game.
I'm hoping Bucs win as next week will gives us better value taking Packers, but not sure they will. If Saints win we likely would pass on the game as I see one of these 2 teams winning the SB.
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Posted:
#113
Browns VS KC............... no plays on any of our PR's or other methods.
Magic stat PR has KC -13.36 over Browns , if the line were to drop to -9 then we'd have a play but no way is that happening.
The Browns did displayed alot of the surprise teams from the WC round tendencies that we saw with those weaker teams making the SB. We went through a period that saw these type weak statisical teams make the SB and everyone of them covered in the SB with some even winning SU.
Titans started the trend in 1999 season with the music city miracle and the Ravens in 2012 season ended the trend winning the SB over 9ERS when Flacco put up some historically great passer rating numbers in the playoffs.
That was 8 years ago, so we have not had such a team since.
Was that a once-in-a-lifetime period gone for good ? Well, looking back there were a few similar teams, 1980 Raiders with failure 1ST pick Jim Plunket winning the SB AS A WEAK STATISITCAL TEAM.
Then 7 years later the 87 Skins with cast-off Doug Williams won the SB. Then 7 years later it was Chargers with Stan Humphreys making the SB but getting steam-rolled by a great team in 94 9ers.
Then 5 years later saw the start of this surprise team trend With Steve Mcnair, 2003 was Panthers with Arean league QB Jake Delhome taking panthers to SB and almost winning SU but got the cover.
remember 2007, Eli the 1st overall pick was considered , not a total failure but a dissappointment for the top guy, he then guided a weak statistical team to a SB win .
EVEN THROWING THIS PERIOD ASIDE, weak teams out of wild card round still happen every now and again, every 7 years happened twice then 5 years.
And when they happened many times they were guided by a QB who was either considered a failure, a disappointment , OR whom had not done anything prior that would tell us that team could have chance to make the SB.
Sound like Mayfield ??
It has been 8 years now since the last surprise team made the SB..........................hhhmmmmmm , could this be the year ???...........
Remember how we talked about having that crystal ball, how Brady and Mahomes seem so simlar, that if we want to make a play in a KC game just look at a similar spot in Brady's career.
2007 Pats went 16-0, 2020 KC went 15-1..............2007 Pats were 1-7 ATS 2cd half the season , 2020 KC was very similar . Pats went 0-3 ATS in the postseason.....................KC will be .............what ??
2007 Pats lost to the surprise team in SB with, at the time, a big disappointment at QB . Only difference is KC will meet that surprise team in the divisional round not the SB .
I wouldn't fade the Browns today , will pass on the game but lean Browns with the +10.
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........ surprise, surprise......
Posted:
#116
Sun.... Leans 1-1
Browns got the cover and near SU win.. That play towards the end of 1st half fumble out of the end zone was a crusher for Browns SU win prospects, if a team like the Browns was going to win SU those things need to go Browns way, ....really is that simple. Was a missed leading with the helmet and helmet to helmet contact so should of been penalty on KC anyways the refs missed.
This game Browns did not display the tendencies of surprise teams but they did get the cover .
KC looked just like the 2007 Pats in their opening playoff game.
KC even with a close game did play better then the Bills in playoffs , even with Hene in the game KC played better then the Bills.
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Posted:
#117
Bucs came-up big, Brees was dreadfully bad, 38.1 QBPR to Brady's 92.9, that's a beat-down right there. When we add in Winston TD pass, Saints QBPR 46.13, still a beat-down.
Bucs should of won this game by 19.64 pts, not the 10 pts they did win by. Right now Bucs are playing the best in playoffs.
Bucs won QBPR in WC game by 25.9, with a defense of 78.4, and they won div round by 46.77 with a defense of 46.13. Granted VS Skins and the no-name QB MAYBE UNDERSTANDABLE defense did well, but they laid a beat-down on Brees and the Saints. Granted Brees is past his prime and not close to Rodgers but Packers won QBPR by only 2.2.
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Posted:
#118
Quote Originally Posted by buffer:
Claw, your costing us a lot of money fading the Bills b/c you think they are regressing.
Claw, your costing us a lot of money fading the Bills b/c you think they are regressing.
Just for the record Buffer....... went 4-1 (80%) fading the Bills thus far......Colts +7, WINNER , Bills TT under 29, WINNER, Bills game under 51.5, WINNER, Ravens +1 1st half, WINNER.......did pick-up 1 loss on Ravens +3 though, sorry about that.
You've got an uncanny knack for being on the wrong side of everything.......................but that's OK Buffer, you still provide a valuable service to the site, people just need to understand how to use your info properly.
BOL ......... in the remaining playoff games...............
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Posted:
#123
Quote Originally Posted by Europa:
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: NFL Playoffs to Date.................... WC round --- 5-1, won 6.9 units Div round --- 3-1, won 1.4 units......leans 1-1 Nice record, keep it up!
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: NFL Playoffs to Date.................... WC round --- 5-1, won 6.9 units Div round --- 3-1, won 1.4 units......leans 1-1 Nice record, keep it up!
Thanks.......alot of credit goes to the new Magic Stat........................
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Posted:
#124
PLAYOFF ONLY POWER RATING I........................................
Bucs 15.7
KC 10.74.......with Mahomes only in the game
Packers 9.31
KC 7.56........with both Mahomes and Henne in the game
Bills 4.72
MY LINES........................................
Bucs -3.39 over Packers
KC -9.02 over Bills........ with Mahomes only
KC -5.84 over Bills........with Mahomes and Henne
Playoff only, even though it's a very small sample of games does work, crazy as it may sound. Will have to look up a few things as we have a play on Packers based on regular season and a play on Bucs based on playoff only.
One thing has worked well over the years is to fade the worst team, which is the Bills.
Playoff only rarely will go 0-2 ATS, and PRI in regular season rarely goes 0-2 ATS, the only way one of those won't go 0-2 ATS is KC has to win and cover.
We have compared Mahomes to Brady and did well last week with Lean on Browns +10 using the 2007 Pats with their 1-7 ATS record coming into playoffs and going 0-3 ATS in playoffs
The difference here is the very small line, Pats were huge favorites which gave them many points to win and not cover, but here with a line of only 3 the winning team covers at an extremely high rate. There is very little room to win but not cover.
I pointed out this same exact situation when 2016 Pats were -3 VS Falcons in the SB, Pats had a terrible cover Rate in SB's but they were bigger favorites, 7 pts or more, plenty of room to win but not cover. But in that game Pats only -3, many here on the site were taking Pats ML because of their poor spread record in SB's and I pointed out that if the Pats win the game they will cover the spread. and they did.
Now KC in the same spot as 2016 Pats and the result will be the same..............................if KC wins this game they will almost certainly cover the 3 pts.
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Posted:
#125
The Bucs based on their play on the field in PRI should have beat the Saints by 19.64 pts, when a very good team in the playoffs plays that much better then the final score they will far more then not cover the next week.
Not all the teams coming out of the WC round and making the SB are weak statistical surprise teams, some have been strong teams like the 2010 Packers, 2005 Steelers, 2000 Ravens, 97 Broncos, Bucs right now are starting to develop that SB winning look based on their play on the field.
Right now I can't go against this Bucs team, nor can I go against the Packers and the incredible magic stat PR.
The Magic stat 2cd ranked team is the Bucs with Packers being a very close 3rd, there will be a top performer in the SB this season. The Bucs did not rate out strong in other areas like QBPR Margin in the regular season white the Packers did but that has reversed itself here in the Playoffs. It's the Bucs now doing very well while Packers did not.
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