PR I...........
KC 7.22
Bucs 5.21
KC -2.01
Defense Adjusted...............Bucs recieve 1.12 pts.
KC -.89 over Bucs.............................................lean Bucs
From 2000 to present, all leans that don't involve a weak statisitcal team from WC round are 9-5 ATS BASED ON DEF ADJUSTED.
Not knocking your methods C always appreciate the info you share....whatever works for you and any individual themselves right....
said the same thing with regards to first two rounds of the playoffs....
No worries. Just wanted to point out I wasn't cherry picking info to fit the Bucs, very importsnt to know that.
All the info I use , almost all of it points to the Bucs.
EXPECTED WIN MARGIN................................7-2 ATS since 2000 with bye teams or strong WC teams
This method we take the one stat that has the highest correlation to the eventual SB winners margin of victory throughout the postseason and use it as a guide to how many points a team will win SB by.
Each team has so many pts to work with based on the one stat.
What we need to happen is for one team to use up all their pts and the other team to have pts remaining, then we have a play.
Many years the final margin came very close to this method.
We did lose last year as KC used up all their pts and 9ers had plenty left.
no play 2018.
2017 method had Eagles with 8.44 pts left and Pats had no pts left and should lose by 3.86,
Eagles won by 5.
2016 Pats with 7.85 pts left and Falcons no pts and should lose by 5.52, Pats won by 6.
We did lose in 2014 with Seahawks over Pats.
2013 both teams had pts left so no play but Seahawks had 35 pts left and won by 35.
2009 Saints had .55 pts left and Colts no pts and should lose by 12.09 and lost by 14.
This season both teams have plenty of pts left................................
KC 34.4
Bucs 33.92
remember, this method does not tell us who will win just how mant pts either team could possibly win by.
Doubtful either team wins by 34 pts but this method is suggesting that a double digit win is very possible
2015 Broncos had plenty of pts left similar to KC and Bucs with Panthers no pts and won by double digits.
2000 Ravens had 20.44 Pts left and Giants no pt and Ravens won by 27.
2010 both teams had plenty of pts left, Packers should of won by 10.06 pts and won by 6.
Since 2010 with bye teams or strong WC teams 7 of the 9 games this method came within 5 pts of the actual margin when using either teams pts left.
Crazy but don't be surprised if this game is not all that close in the end.
My perception coming in was KC, no doubt KC, but all the info points in one direction, on the Bucs. But not strong plays except for close wins which needs to win on Bucs to not end with a losing record, with only 1 losing record since middle 2000's.
Both regular season and Playoff only PR I with leans on the Bucs.
Last season we lost on the 9ers , fading KC, 9ERS was the right play, at one point in the game they had a 96% probability to win the game. Great for KC that they can overcome such incredible odds against them. A team may be able to do that every now and again but the right play here is on Bucs and not very likely KC can overcome the key indicators repeatedly.
If they do Mahomes will be shaping up to be the next Brady and you won't want to go against him . But we'll believe in the PR's and Fade Mahomes and KC.
Bucs +3 (+100) over KC --- 1 unit
Bucs 1st half +2.5 --- .55 units
Bucs alternate line -7.5 (+350) --- .5 units
Well, close wins told the story once again.
FO making excuses for all those close wins. Same as NFL advanced stats did for 2001 Packers.
We need to take these things with us going forward. It will happen again at some point in the right situation and we can't forget the lesson learned
Wild card round teams remain without a single ATS loss in SB's since back to 1997 season, just incredible run for these teams.
Will this start another run by these teams ?
Look at the similarity to the start back then.
1997 Broncos were a strong team from WC round, as was Bucs. Broncos woluld beat defending SB champion Packers with a top young gun QB in Farve as a dog in the game.
Bucs beat defending SB champs with the top young gun QB as a dog.
Packers never did get back to the SB.....................KC ????
2 YEARS LATER STARTED THE WEAK STATISICAL teams from WC Round with the Titans helped by the music city miracle. The next year was the Ravens with historical defense, then 2 years after the Ravens was Jake Delhome and the Panthers covering VS Brady.
A team from WC round did not make the SB every year but they did quite often, possible, just maybe here we go again............................
Remember, in preseason we talked about how KC had no regression indicators going against them, zero, nota, none. In fact I pointed out they had indicators pointing to the fact they could be even better in 2020 because of fumbles recovered.
And sure enough they were going 14-1 with starters. But now they have strong regression indicators going into next year, this team is due a big regression next year. Close wins being one.
They won far to many games for their pt margin, not good signs going into next year. I wouldn't back this team to win or make the SB next year.
Look back at how many teams were crushed by a SB loss, Packers with Farve, never got back. Rams with Warner, never got back. Seahawks with Wilson never got back. And these teams who won SB going for a repeat. Rodgers with the 2010 SB and then 2011 excuse making for their terrible defense who we already talked about, another top young QB who was thought to have many good years to get back but never did. A number of other teams who were not defending champs as well.
The one thing we should of learned from this game is, Mahomes is no Brady. When Brady got down 28-3 he rallied the troops and got back into the game and won. Brady brought Pats back down 10 pts in 4th to beat defending Champ Seahawks with another great QB.
Yea, Mahomes did rally last year, but look at all those close 1 score games KC had this year, Brady never had a year like that. Look at all the times KC trailed to start games, 5 of the past 6 postseason games KC trailed by double digits had Bills just made an extra pt.
That is not Brady like at all, very possible KC does not make it back to a SB for years to come. As hard as that might be for some to imagine but other teams will begin to emerge and KC may have seen it's best years already.
I wouldn't count on backing this team next year, forget about that. Take a deep breath and take some time before you decide to back this team already for next year.
May have an NBA Futures play coming up in the next week or so. Great chance to catch some good odds on a possible suprise team. I did call the Warriors to win their 1st title with about 25 games played in the season at +750. Amoung other teams.
There's a team out there now who's on a very strong level with great odds because they have not won yet with this group of players. Let's waitout just a few more games.
Will be posting in the NBA Forum when I make the plays.
Established in 1995,
claw enjoy the game this Sunday
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