POWER RATING II........................................
Power Rating II places more wieght on balance and gives extra credit for better defenses and teams don't Turn the ball over, and run game carries more wieght then PRI which is a passing efficiency PR.
1. Saints 9.14
2. Packers 6.81
3. Ravens 5.77
4. KC 5.03
5. Bills 3.5
6. Bucs 2.84
I only ran these 6 teams, the no. 1 ranked team hass been a very good team to back in their 1st playoff game , unless they are low ranked. Most strong no. 1 ranked teams are over 12, Saints a very weak no. 1 ranked team, some of that could have been in games Brees was out, I'll check that and adjust if needed later.
One thing looks obvious, there are no strong teams this season with covid, had to re-check some teams as could not believe how low rated they are.
Bills get out-rushed plus 22 TO's , ouch, , Bucs are crazy low but their big loss VS Saints was the largest blow-out of the season in the metic so Bucs get beat-down for that game while Saints get rewarded, not by by a huge amount but still it makes a difference , and but winning indicator is important in each game.
Bucs just don't rated out very high regardless of method, I don't understand how they produced such a very good pt margin with not all that great of play on the field . It doesn't make sense.
Comparing their pt margin to their PR I rating , they are -3.39, easily the worst of any team in the Playoffs. Compare that to Saints, their play on the field is 1.08 pts better then their pt margin. a 4.47 DIFF .
Compare that to Packers +2.23 , best of these 6 teams, Browns the best team in playoffs at +2.74, Steelers were -1.35, a 4.1 diff. KC -1.28, A 4.03 DIFF
Bucs pt margin may very well be deceptive, they amay not be as good as they have appeared to look this season, I doubt Bucs make the SB.
Ravens don't rank all that high either, especially for a team with such a strong rushing attack out-rushing opps by a whopping 83 yards a game. They do have a good amount of TO's at 18 and are not all that good in ave per pass attempt which still carries good a amount weight. They were not consistent each week with winning each area.
But Ravens still much better then the Bills
MY LINES...................................................
Bills -.73 over Ravens
we still have a lean on Ravens based on the line, only game we can get a line on this week.
Rodgers has had an off-the-hook incredible season, historic QBPR, let's compare the Packers rating this season with other years when Rodgers didn't make the SB.
We'll use our new magic stat PR, as we'll also get to see how it worked in other years, so we can check 2 things at once.
2016 Packers made the NFC Title game VS Falcons and were blown-out.
2020 Packers 13.67 rating
2016 Packers 2.91 rating, yep, that's it. a paltry 2.91, not a very good team.
Pack beat no. 1 seed Dallas in div round, my line using magic stat.....Dallas -7.46, not sure the line, thought I had it but will look it up.
Falcons were -12.96 over Packers in NFC Title game, actual line -6.5, WE HAD OVER A 6 PT DIFF and a play on Falcons for the easy win.
Pats -11.93 over Steelers in AFC Title game, actual line -5.5, again over a pt diff and a easy win.
in 2016 Packers team was a shadow of the 2020 Packers.
2014 Packers 13.18, now we're talking, a much stronger team.
Div round Packers -6.36 over Dallas, actual line Pack -5.5, no play there, Pack won by 5.
NFC Title game Seahawks -.56 over Packers, Seahawks defending SB Champs and -8.5 actual line, almost a 8 pt diff, definate play and easy win. Rodgers did sprain his ankle the prior week and his status was uncertain, so of course we'd need to consider that.
This Packers team far better then the 2016 team, Seahawks did win in OT on a highly improbable finish. Packers up 19-7 with not alot of time left and Seahawks score a TD with 2;09 left, recover the onsidse kick and score again with 1:25 left to take a 22-19 lead, craZY YEA, rODGERS BRING pACK BACK for A FG to tie the game .
Seahawks win the flip and march down the field and score a TD, not much Rodgers can do about that or about Seahawks getting an onside kick. Two lucky things went the Seahawks way that Rodgers had no control over, as he could not play defense to stop Seahawks from scoring 2 TD's and the end of regulation with not much time left.
Now, think about this,
I seen the media saying after Butler intercepted the ball on the 1 yard line to beat Seahawks and win SB, That Brady just became a better QB.....SAY WHAT ???
yes all of a sudden Brady was a better QB, what did he do different then what he already had done had Butler not had the INT ?? DON'T MAKE ANY LOGICAL SENSE.
Rodgers is now a worse QB because his defense gave up 2 quick TD's to end regulation, special teams coughed up an onside kick, Seahawks won coin flip and score a TD on 1st drive AND RODGERS IS WORSE.......... SAY WHAT ??
2014 WITH a high rating Packers easily should of won that game but for a highly unlikely series of improbable plays non of which Rodgers could control they lost.
Pats -5.98 over Colts in AFC Title game, actual line -7, Pats won in a rout, 45-7 I think. magic stat PR had no play
3 plays in those 2 years going 3-0 ATS
2011 Packers, 15-1 , no. 1 seed. rating 17.03, wow, strong rating. lost opening playoff game to Giants. on the surface this does not look so good for Rodgers. however, Packers were out-gained in total yards on the season, this is not good, their defense was dreadfully bad. no. 1 and no. 2 seeds with low total yards margins are automatic fades ATS and will lose SU about 50% of the time.
So here I can easily understand Rodgers and the Packers losing. If you remember , I'm sure you don't, but the media was making all kinds of excuses for the Packers porus defense, stating how they had big leads so the yards they gave up were not important.
I warned everyone about the folly of backing no. 1 seeds with low total yds margins, even got into heated discussions on other sites like NFL Advanced stats whom had 2011 Packers ranked no. 1 and I told them Packers would not win the SB. They about ripped me to shreds.
This is a look into some of the other Packer teams and we can see the best Packer team was 2014 when they led 19-7 and could of easily made the SB except for a number of improbable things that needed to happen.
This 2020 Packer team is going to roll tommorrow folks...........................................
in 2017 we had these line with magic stat PR...............
Jags -.37 over Steelers in div round, Jags +7, jags win SU
jags -13.9 over Bills in WC round, actual line was 7-8, I think u needed to get the 7 early or wasn't available I had 7.5 on that game and lost. Jags won by 7. magic stat would of had a play and lost that one or could of had a push.
Pats -.77 over Jags in AFC Title game, actual line Jags +7-+7.5, Pats won SU but jags won ATS.
2018 SB ......RAMS -.35 OVER PATS , Pats -3, a 3.35 diff would be no play.
KC -7.39 OVER PATS, KC was -3, we have a 4.39 diff, with a 4 pt diff we have a play on KC and lost. but KC sealed the game stopping Pats on 4th down but offsides on defense gave Pats new life and they took advantage winning the game.
KC -9.45 OVER COLTS in div round, actual line KC -4, a 5.45 diff AND A PLAY AND EASY WIN 31-13.
THE MAGIC STAT PR looks to be pretty good in the early going after reviewing a number of games.
We'll go with it with a 5.48 pt diff on Packers over Rams................................
2016 Dallas -7.55 over Packers, line was Dallas -5.5, so no play in that game. a no. 1 seed with no play.
the magic stat PR seems to have a play in a number of games that end in blow-outs that PR I & II passed on a number of those games.
PR I passing on Packers this year while magic stat PR has a play................. another blowout winner ???
Claw, everything you said l like! This is the year for Green Bay ! Rogers best season. He does NOT want this game to get away from him. He wants this Super Bowl. I am with you on this! I didn’t have a good betting season this year. But, want to get some back ..... Not sure if I should double up on the Green Bay
....................................Packers should get it done today......
It's very, very, very important to understand the history of players and teams and to understand what I just posted in regards to a player like Rodgers as the media will bend these things around and confuse the dickens out of the ave uneducated viewer.
This is not the same quality of Packer team that was blown-out by Falcons in the 2017 NFC Championship game or the same quality of team as the very, very defensively weak 2011....no. 1 seed....15-1 Packer team that the media made all kinds of excuses for why their weak defenses did not matter, even other supposedly educate web site made those excuses as well.
If you don't remember these things you'll fall into the trap of thinking Rodgers can't win and that belief will be highly, highly influenced by the media feeding your brain complete nonsense. many will not even realize that the media influenced how you think about Rodgers simply by making excuses for Packers weak defense in 2011 will make many people believe Rodgers failed.
If teams with big leads giving up yards is not important then why was A BIG STINK never made about any other team before 2011 Packers or after the 2011 Packers in the same way it was about the 2011 Packers, they sure made a huge stink about it in 2011/2012 . So much that even web sites started in with that narrative.
This is why it is so important to remember these things. You can see it play out right here on the site with people trying to compare Rodgers to past failures. Rodgers did not fail, the Packers were not very good and that is why a team does not advance very deep in the playoffs.
2020 Packers team is right up there with the 2010 team and 2014 team, both of whom could of been in the SB , and don't be surprised if they get similar results.
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