IT'S PLAYOFF TIME.......................................2020/2021

Based on PR I here is how the 3 games played-out on sat.

Bills should of won by 6.16 pts, they won by 3

Rams should of won by 12.16, they won by 10

Bucs should of won by 11.76, they won by 8

All 3 games played out about the way they should have according to PR I.

Although the Colts did out-gain the Bills by 75 yards , it was the Bills who were far more efficient with their yards. Bills ave 8.1 per pass while Colts ave 6.7.

Bills were 28 pts better QBPR , the way teams make-up for losing the total yards battle is by either TO's or being more efficient, which the Bills were more efficient.

There's alot to be said for total yards especially in the playoffs but there is also alot to be said for efficiency as well, one team won 1 battle the other team won the other battle which produced a close game. 

Had the Colts won both total yards and efficiency then the result would have been much different most likely.

Well, PR I was correct with leans in 2 of 3 games, even the Skins without Smith.

PRI did lose on Seahawks with a lean.

We'll see the results today, normally coming off a bad weekend in playoffs PR I bounces back big the next week.

Next week we'd have.................................. Assuming the favories all win today.

Packers -8.43 over Rams

Saints -7.97 over Bucs

KC -2.52 over Ravens

Bills -3.94 over Steelers 

we should get 2 of the 3 with a good shot for all 3......................

Thank You DK.....................

Ravens .......................................

3 total plays today................................................

good analysis

Loving the Ravens today for a variety of reasons

@LogCottage

 They allready have this year

Jackson and the Ravens really showed some heart coming back down 10 pts, they were not going to be denied.

Thanks to the magic stat we had a big play on the Ravens.

Let's see if they get it done next week.

Did you post a pick  for late game? Pitt - the points?

Yes he did Pitts-6

Saints get it done, crazy that last drive and one handed grab with no time left for Bears TD.

Bears likely could have gone for 2 if there was any amount of time left.

Nice to get off to a good start.................

Sun......2-1, Won 3.9 units

Playoffs to Date .......5-1, Won 6.9 units

Wow, Browns came-out possesed while Steelers appeared flat as a pancake. Possible Browns could be a surprise team from wildcard round, we haven't had one since 2012 Ravens,  they did display some of the play in key areas. But 1 game is not enough, after next week we'll know more for sure. Beating KC will be a tall order for Browns.

According to PR I......................

RAVENS SHOULD OF WON BY 5.06 POINTS

Saints by only 4.02 pts

Browns by 19.58 pts

Ravens about what they actually won by  but the Saints and especially Browns stand-out as deceptive final scores.

MY LINES.........................................................PR I......

Packers -8.43 over Rams

Saints -7.97 over Bucs

KC -7.54 over Browns

Bills -1.99 over Ravens

PRI with all leans in wildcard round went 3-3 ATS, with a 6 pt diff to closing line went 1-0 ATS on the Saints

No games with a 6 pt diff this week unless the line moves some on the Saints would need to drop to -1.5, or move quite a bit in the other games, not likely.

But we do have 1 play using PR I in divisional round play, , but let's wait it out as with covid may not be wise to get down early. Of course always possible covid could benefit us as well, so maybe a small play now and add more later. The thing is, if you bet now your making 2 bets, one that the players won't be foolish enough to go out and about and catch the virus, and the other on the team.

Not sure that's a bet I want to make.

Wait..... actually we had no plays with a 6 pt diff to closing line, but we did have 1 play with a 6 pt at some point during the week with the line, as long as we get down with the 6 pt diff.  Been tracking that past few years and seems to work, the reson I did make a small play on Saints.

PRI did go 3-1 ATS with a 2 pt diff to the closing line. Some of my  lines were very close to actual line, so I like to see the record with  at least a small diff. PR I won with Saints, Skins and Colts all with a 2 pt diff and lost with of all teams the Titans , of course we were on Ravens for other reason, but a 2 pt diff not enough to maske a play.

The Magic Stat PR went 3-3 ATS.....BUT 2-2 ATS with a 2 pt diff.

The Magic Stat added to PR I went ......3-3 ATS but only 1-2 ATS with a 2 pt diff. If we were to add total yards margin to this ....then went 4-2 ATS OVER ALL GAMES and 1-1 ATS  with a 2 pt diff 

I wouldn't expect the same results next week, what happens many times is PR did the best might do the worst next week with a 2 pt diff  and vice-versa.

MY LINES WITH MAGIC STAT PR....................................

Packers  -11.98

Saints -5.98

KC -13.36

Bills -3.02

PR I with Magic Stat added in.........................................

Packers -11.79

Saints -7.42

KC - 11.72

Bills -.02

This PR did the worst last week with a 2 pt diff at 1-2 ATS, very well could do the best this week with a 2 pt diff on Pack, Saints and Ravens at this point. For a 2 pt diff will want it to be the closing line.  

I used the NEW Magic stat PR and broke-down past SB's, here's the results , although not alot of games as of yet....................................

2019 9ers 12.57 VS KC 12.51, almost dead-even, KC was -1, so only a 1.06 diff.

2017 Eagles 10.78 VS Pats 8.31, Eagles -2.47, Pats were -4, a 6.47 diff

2016 Pats 13.52 VS Falcons 12.87, Pats -.65, Pats were -3, a 2.35 diff

2014 Seahawks 10.74 VS Pats 8.92, Seahawks -1.82, Pats -1 with some PK's, at best a 2.82 diff

2013 Seahawks 17.03 VS Broncos 14.69, Seahawks -2.34, Broncos -2.5, a 4.84 diff

wow, big diff between Seahawks in 2013 and the 2014 team, 2013 one of best , 2013 Broncos were better then the other SB Winners.

2010 Packers 14.11  VS Steelers 11.31, Pack -2.8, Packers were -3 , -2.5, almost right on the line

2009 Saints 17.03 VS Colts 9.43, Saints -7.6, Colts -4 or -5, a huge diff of 11.6 to 12.6

89 9ers 19.26 VS Broncos 7.23, 9ers -12.03, 9ers were -12, almost right on the line

85 Bears 17.61 VS Pats 6.61, Bears -11, Bears were -9,-10,-11, line within 2 pts

there was a 4 pt diff in lines with 2017 Eagles, 2013 Seahawks, 2009 Saints, all dogs winning SU.

A FAV OF 2 PTS OR MORE....6-0 SU

The better team won every game except 2014 Seahawks who would of, could of, should of won. KC and 9ers to close to call with only .06 seperating them 

Look how close 2016 Pats and Falcons were, and the Falcons rated out slightly better then either 2019 KC or 9ers, and better then most of the other SB teams around the same years,  that team was much better then many gave them credit for at the time and maybe even today. 

Based on 4 pt diff we'd had 2 plays in WC games, Saints and Steelers going 1-1 ATS.

We have 1 game with a 4 pt diff in Divisional round.......Packers over Rams

The PR did the best in all games in WC round was PR I with magic stat added and total yards added...................4-2 ATS....BUT JUST 1-1 ats WITH A 2 PT DIFF

Packers -10.59

Saints -7.68

KC -13.53

Bills -.34

KC benefits the most as they are 2cd best in total yards margin and Browns were 4th worst only ahead of Bears, Titans and Seahawks, those 3 teams were all out-gained in total yards on the year and went 0-3 ATS, shows you the importance of total yards.

Even the Skins were better then Browns, although slightly better. Browns the only team weak in total yards margin to win SU of the 5 teams. We''ll see if they can survive another week, if they do then we'd have to look close at Browns being a surprise team from WC round.

Efficiency wins in sports , however to do well in playoffs and to win SB teams need efficiency plus volume like total yards margin, this is one thing I noticed  alot of web sites haven't discovered yet

Rams lead the league in total yards margin but lack efficiency. Packers super efficient plus very good at total yards margin, great combination. 

PR I.....................Any home fav by less then 5 pts is an automatic fade, as the dog in these spots win ATS about 65% of the time. This implies a very even matchup,  the dog wins SU about 50%.

Last season we had Vikes over Saints in this spot and they not only covered but won SU.

Play on ................................the Ravens

Another method on the Ravens.

Close Wins..............................2-0 ATS last week, although we passed on the Rams with uncertainy with starting QB.

we have a play with a 3 pt diff..................

Rams by 2 over Packers

Bucs by 2 over Saints

Browns by 2 over KC

Ravens by 6 over Bills.....................Bills 5-1 in close 1 score wins which could have gone either way, blow-out wins a better indicator 

play on.........................Ravens

once again another method with a play on the Ravens

go get em this week. 

i feel like we will see a different divisional round with dogs having good c hance to cover in covid season. faves gone 6-2 ats last 2 years

Possible only 1 or 2 home teams cover.

Possible only 1 or 2 home teams cover.

Possible only 1 or 2 home teams cover.

Possible only 1 or 2 home teams cover.