IT'S PLAYOFF TIME.......................................2020/2021

Everyone likes the hot teams like Buffalo, somehow those things don't seem to work out but the alure of a hot team is too much to resist. Team with the best ATS record in wildcard round is 1-6-1 ATS last 8 years. That's be Buffalo.

Thank you........... what do you got for us in wild card round ? ......Anything interesting ?

The Magic Stat......................one of the top 2 have made the SB 14 of the past 17 years

Ravens

Bucs

Of the 3 years they did not , 2018 KC was no. 1 and it took a crazy very stupid offside penalty on KC defense after they had stop Pats on a 4th down and the game was over to keep Pats drive alive which Pats  they eventually won .

In another of the 3 years a no. 3 made the Super bowl, Saints no. 3 in 2018 losing on a non-pass interfence call. 

That basically leaves just 1 of 17 years a top 3 team did not sniff a trip to SB.

two of the top 3 have made the SB in 8 of 17 years, so in almost half the years 2 of the top 3 make the SB, that's pretty insane. Impressive stat that nobody talks about. Let's keep in that way, hopefully it will become a secret weapon.

Ravens

Bucs

Packers

Packers finished  a fraction out of 2cd , Packers lead the league in QB Passer Rating Margin by a good amount with Rodgers playing on an historically high level.

Bucs QBPR Margin just 7.9, not SB calibre, Ravens just 12.1, teams this low need to have strong run games both off and defense. Ravens out-rush opps by a whopping 83 yards.

When we add it all up.......This info suggest a Packers/Ravens SB matchup.

Really need to add in PR II, unforetunately I don't have it but may try to get a few teams by next weekend. Saints led after 10 weeks with Steelers 2cd.

As usual, great write-up and analysis.  GL to you in the playoffs Claw.  

Thank You.....................BOL to you as well .........................................

THE MAGIC STAT......................................................

When a team plays on a higher minimum level the success rate seems to go up. There is only 1 team playing on this level this season and that team is....Ravens

In the past 17 years teams on this level were 40-19-2 ATS backing them in every game unless they played another team on that level. 67%.........Ravens 

In the 17 years there were 25 times a conference had a team on this level and 18 of the 25  times that team won the conference and went to SB. 72%

10 Times at least 2 teams in the league  met the level all 10 times one of those teams made the SB

6 Times only 1 team met this level, same as this season with just the Ravens , 4 times that team made the SB. 67%

1 time no team met the level.

No. 1 ranked teams made the SB in 8 of the 17 years.

No. 2 in 9 of 17 years.

About the same for 1 or 2 ranked teams, 17 teams in 17 years as some years both teams made the SB.

Best team in that span was 2007 Pats who went 0-3 ATS in playoffs, the next 3 best teams went 1-3 ATS, WOW that's crazy 1-6 ATS for the 4 best teams with 1 SB appearance and 0 SB wins.

The next 4 best teams ranked 5th - 8th were 7-3 ATS with 3 SB wins, KC was in this group in both 2018 and 2019. But not close this season.

Who's 9th ....................................2020 Ravens 

Just below the Ravens..........................2016 Falcons, remember those guys, Matt Ryan couldn't win in the playoffs, then he exploded. And 2011 Pats made the SB but lost to a surprise wild card round team and was 1-2 ATS. Up to the SB game these 2 teams combined for a 3-1 ATS record.

That's interesting that we have 3 of the top 9 teams in the past 3 years. 

do you dig deep enough though? Yes Ravens have the rushing dominance but their offense is easy to beat with the right coaching..starting with Tenn but ending up with someone...Jackson still can't throw outside the numbers effectively..just down the middle..so put a spy on him and clog the center like the Titans did last year then get ahead and it's over...KC or GB/NO can do this if Vrable can't again..Balt built up the numbers against horrific defenses like Cleveland...the one position you must have to win 85% of the time is QB unless your defense is spectacular like the 2000 Ravens and this Ravens D is no where as good as that one

You bring up some good points, but I dont look at games like that, although there are good things said for doing such. But I'll leave that up to guys like you who can do it much better then myself.

I agree Jackson is not the best passer, they need to stay committed to the run game, he gains almost as much per run as per pass. I think they failed at this past 2 years. But he will have to pass to make the SB, I agree with that. I'll take my chances he can at least cover if and when he's a dog next couple of weeks.

Backing Ravens every game, if we get by this weekend then not possible to finish with a losing record. A win but not cover would be the worst result, not likely to happen.

BOL.............................................

If we add the magic stat to PR I we get these lines...........................................

Saints -20.68

Bucs - 8.98

Seahawks - 6.83

Bills - 5.74

Steelers -9.76

Ravens -2.72

1 play  would be Saints

Close wins we have 2 plays Rams and Ravens.

Will pass on the Rams  today with Goff maybe out.  Backing a guy with 1 career start and posting a 64.7 QBPR is not the way I want to go. 

Reading some other threads I have no clue how people think the Rams are better with this guy . Based on what ? Seems to me they are really reaching very hard to find any reason to make a play on the game. 

Be patient, find better spots where you have a much better idea of known qualities.

Let's wait-out the line on Ravens/Titans game. Has dropped to -3 but -125.

Sat games..............................................

Colts +7 (-125) over Bills --- 1.25 units

Colts/Bills UNDER 51.5 --- 1.1 units

Bills TT UNDER 29 (+100) --- 1 unit

3-0 .....won 3 units

Nice work! Anymore plays for the late game?

well played

i always look forward to the playoff rankings and super pumped to see how it does with the new parameters mixed in

keep up the great work!

Congratulations.

I just saw your question.  Sorry for the late response.

I have been a total embarrassment with my recent posts on Covers.  I believe I was wrong about 8 of the last 9 posts, whether or not I actually bet the games (actual bets have also sucked).  Virtually every factoid or query I mentioned was summarily ridiculed by the game results, so I did not mention my only actual bet - one unit on LAR.  While I did not bet it, the query also picked IND.

Good luck tomorrow.  I am idle, but I will be watching CLV with low expectations.

Yea, covid really did a number on things, hopefully things return to more normalacy next year.

Thank You, should be interesting....................

Bills were lucky to survive that game. Indy really shot themselves in the foot getting into red zone not not getting TD's. The game was there to be won, but credit to Bills defense who rose the the occasion when they needed to.

I thought one of the biggest plays was Allen pulling the player off-sides on that final drive before halftime. Had Colts stopped them there which they did then the 4th down call failure would have been held to minimual damage, but giving up a TD after not getting any pts was brutal .

That play was the bigger play to me.

Had Colts kicked a FG and Bills scored a TD with the remaining time left, Bills just went 96 yards for a TD while back-up to their goal line then why couldn't they go 75 yards to score a TD ? then the score would have been Bills 14-13 at half.

Had the player not jumped offsides and Bills kick a FG the score would have been 10-10,  better result for the Bills was not going for the FG on 4th down.

Since  playoff games have scoring the the last 2 minutes before half and even more true with better offensive teams, a Bills score on their final drive before halftime was high probability.

It all boils down to Colts not allowing a TD on that final drive which Colts defense did not do.

We can make a case that Colts did stop Bills but had Bills gotten a FG before half and Colts kicked a FG on 4th down then Colts would of led 13-10, playing the way the Colts did in 1st half was not likely to repeat in 2cd half, Bills were going to have their moments so even a 13-10 lead is not hardly much for Bills to over-come and win the game.

What would have been far tougher result was for Colts to not cover, that would have been brutal for Colts backers given how Colts played.

Ravens -3 (-125) over Titans --- 5 unit3

Close wins did get the win with the Rams who had I known Goff could/ would play may have played them.

Ravens a even bigger mismatch with close wins and no. 1 in magic stat playing on a high level with a 67% cover rate, we'll ride the Ravens here especially in this spot with revenge VS Titans and the fact they lost last 2 season in their first playoff game. Time for this Ravens team to stand up and get the job done. 

Saints -10 over Bears --- 1.1 units

we really need this line to stay 10 or less for a 6 pt diff with my lines in PR I. looks like it's creeping up to 10.5, even seen an 11, was lucky to get this this morn at local book as it appears line is going up.

If line comes back down to close at 10 then will add 1 more unit to play.

Steelers -6 over Browns --- 1.1 units

I wouldn't back the Browns here, they are dreadful in efficiency areas. QBPR margin +1.1, ave per pass margin +.24, yards per point margin (-.08), the magic stat another negative stat being out-played by opps.

this is not a good quality playoff team and they are missing players and coaches, don't see the Browns hanging with the Steelers today.

nice work claw 

@theclaw

 Ravens, Saints, Steelers