I quit trying to cap games based on "public" plays, dogs vs favs, and all systems other than just looking at the actual matchups... It's plenty tough enough just doing that; but it's a lot more profitable for me. There is no "black box" in wagering... You just need to do your homework, not bet too many games, use good money management and you should be ahead at the end of the season.. if not; wagering might not be for you.. IMHO
I quit trying to cap games based on "public" plays, dogs vs favs, and all systems other than just looking at the actual matchups... It's plenty tough enough just doing that; but it's a lot more profitable for me. There is no "black box" in wagering... You just need to do your homework, not bet too many games, use good money management and you should be ahead at the end of the season.. if not; wagering might not be for you.. IMHO
It is not about fading the public. But public percentages are huge part of handicapping whether you take them into consideration when handicapping your games or not. I personally do, in some cases. Books will place some well laid traps on the board. Do your homwork and you will see they actually are not traps they just look that way to the strickly subjective handicapper.
Anyone who blindy fades the public or wagers on games soley due to reverse line moves ect. will not win in the long run. Use these tools to narrow down the games you sink your teeth deeply into if you are short on time for that day or week. However, if anyone is wagers based on fading the public or all games with smart money you do not need to prove this wrong for them, they will loose. The prblem is the sites available to 99% of handcappers are skewed numbers. You do not know what % is at what book at X line with Y vig. The numbersa are to broad and inclued parlays, teasers, ect.
Look at these numbers to estimate where the line will be moving. Will it move in your favor or against it?? Wagering on lines at the best possible time tis the best way to use public figures in my opinion.
It is not about fading the public. But public percentages are huge part of handicapping whether you take them into consideration when handicapping your games or not. I personally do, in some cases. Books will place some well laid traps on the board. Do your homwork and you will see they actually are not traps they just look that way to the strickly subjective handicapper.
Anyone who blindy fades the public or wagers on games soley due to reverse line moves ect. will not win in the long run. Use these tools to narrow down the games you sink your teeth deeply into if you are short on time for that day or week. However, if anyone is wagers based on fading the public or all games with smart money you do not need to prove this wrong for them, they will loose. The prblem is the sites available to 99% of handcappers are skewed numbers. You do not know what % is at what book at X line with Y vig. The numbersa are to broad and inclued parlays, teasers, ect.
Look at these numbers to estimate where the line will be moving. Will it move in your favor or against it?? Wagering on lines at the best possible time tis the best way to use public figures in my opinion.
Let me just state again guys,this thread is for the guys who follow the numbers published by certain sites,this is for the guys who base their plays around the public consensus numbers on them sites.I love the way the chirp up about the plays the "public " got wrong without a mention of the games "they" got right.Selective memory my ole man used to call it.
Let me just state again guys,this thread is for the guys who follow the numbers published by certain sites,this is for the guys who base their plays around the public consensus numbers on them sites.I love the way the chirp up about the plays the "public " got wrong without a mention of the games "they" got right.Selective memory my ole man used to call it.
based on line movement, you'd think that the public might be on the right side of....
Ravens - opened 7, then 8, now seeing -9 (at greek) and -8 (blowdog)
Patriots - opened 7 (i believe), now at -9 (at greek) and -8 (blowdog)
Niners - opened -5, went to -5.5... and -6 (at blowdog, greek is still -5.5)
Everything other spread has not moved, and the juice has moved very little (as I have seen it, correct me if mistaken)
Miami, Saints, Lions, Texans, all look like plays.
I would say Cardinals too, but Im already all over Carolina at home.
That being said, i cant believe over 50 percent of people are on the Bungles. Anybody who bets the Bungles this week (whether they cover or not) is a true degenerate, and my hat is off to you.
based on line movement, you'd think that the public might be on the right side of....
Ravens - opened 7, then 8, now seeing -9 (at greek) and -8 (blowdog)
Patriots - opened 7 (i believe), now at -9 (at greek) and -8 (blowdog)
Niners - opened -5, went to -5.5... and -6 (at blowdog, greek is still -5.5)
Everything other spread has not moved, and the juice has moved very little (as I have seen it, correct me if mistaken)
Miami, Saints, Lions, Texans, all look like plays.
I would say Cardinals too, but Im already all over Carolina at home.
That being said, i cant believe over 50 percent of people are on the Bungles. Anybody who bets the Bungles this week (whether they cover or not) is a true degenerate, and my hat is off to you.
It's like anything else. Pay attention to what "YOU" should be doing. Minding other people's business is NOT what anyone is brought up to do if mom and dad raised them right. This silly monitoring of the "the public," -- when nobody really has a grasp on who "the public" is or how much money "the public" represents, or on whether or not the crooked, lying sack of turds sportsbooks are reporting accurately (?!) -- does not help anybody win money in the long run. <<<<<<<<<< In my book, this kind of mindset keeps people "stuck" at a low level of football (and betting) I.Q.
It's like anything else. Pay attention to what "YOU" should be doing. Minding other people's business is NOT what anyone is brought up to do if mom and dad raised them right. This silly monitoring of the "the public," -- when nobody really has a grasp on who "the public" is or how much money "the public" represents, or on whether or not the crooked, lying sack of turds sportsbooks are reporting accurately (?!) -- does not help anybody win money in the long run. <<<<<<<<<< In my book, this kind of mindset keeps people "stuck" at a low level of football (and betting) I.Q.
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