Pretty sure this thread is going to have the opposite of his intended effect, especially if he starts keeping tabs of the percentage of the public on these teams. Like I wrote earlier the real myth is that books make money off the vig and do not take sides.
Pretty sure this thread is going to have the opposite of his intended effect, especially if he starts keeping tabs of the percentage of the public on these teams. Like I wrote earlier the real myth is that books make money off the vig and do not take sides.
they know football but they dont know how to BET football.
my friend had a 3 team parlay that he made on my account (he paid me cash)
Indy -1 Saints +3 Jets -3
needless to say......
so he calls me up today and sayz "so whats the play today?" (he conceded bragging rights to me after i won big on Oakland, he also vowed he would follow all my picks cuz he lost his ass off)
so I sayz "the play is the Patriots". After alot of "i don't know, blah, blah" Im like Whatever, and I don't try to convince him either way and let him pick on his own.
of course he took the Broncos +3
even worse he took Broncos +10 under 55.5 teaser for the rest of his roll. Claimed that it was a "lock" and "easy money" and a "safety bet".
He calls me about midway through the 3rd quarter to say "congrats on your pick".
I couldn't help but chuckle and think "i tried to tell ya".
the public are like my friends.
they know football but they dont know how to BET football.
my friend had a 3 team parlay that he made on my account (he paid me cash)
Indy -1 Saints +3 Jets -3
needless to say......
so he calls me up today and sayz "so whats the play today?" (he conceded bragging rights to me after i won big on Oakland, he also vowed he would follow all my picks cuz he lost his ass off)
so I sayz "the play is the Patriots". After alot of "i don't know, blah, blah" Im like Whatever, and I don't try to convince him either way and let him pick on his own.
of course he took the Broncos +3
even worse he took Broncos +10 under 55.5 teaser for the rest of his roll. Claimed that it was a "lock" and "easy money" and a "safety bet".
He calls me about midway through the 3rd quarter to say "congrats on your pick".
I couldn't help but chuckle and think "i tried to tell ya".
Pretty sure this thread is going to have the opposite of his intended effect, especially if he starts keeping tabs of the percentage of the public on these teams. Like I wrote earlier the real myth is that books make money off the vig and do not take sides.
Why would the books take risk of trying to pick sides. They are not in
the business of gambling, the bettors are. The percentages does not
have anything to do with where the money is at. just because 80% of
some website is betting on a team doesn't me huge money isn't coming in
on the other side.
Quote Originally Posted by BurningPlanet26:
Pretty sure this thread is going to have the opposite of his intended effect, especially if he starts keeping tabs of the percentage of the public on these teams. Like I wrote earlier the real myth is that books make money off the vig and do not take sides.
Why would the books take risk of trying to pick sides. They are not in
the business of gambling, the bettors are. The percentages does not
have anything to do with where the money is at. just because 80% of
some website is betting on a team doesn't me huge money isn't coming in
on the other side.
the line is created by a computer. Its adjusted (1 or 2 points max by people) to manipulate action if needed. Action is also manipulated by juice, or line movement.
how do u think the 2ND H lines come out so quick? Its all number crunching.
the line is created by a computer. Its adjusted (1 or 2 points max by people) to manipulate action if needed. Action is also manipulated by juice, or line movement.
how do u think the 2ND H lines come out so quick? Its all number crunching.
they know football but they dont know how to BET football.
my friend had a 3 team parlay that he made on my account (he paid me cash)
Indy -1 Saints +3 Jets -3
needless to say......
so he calls me up today and sayz "so whats the play today?" (he conceded bragging rights to me after i won big on Oakland, he also vowed he would follow all my picks cuz he lost his ass off)
so I sayz "the play is the Patriots". After alot of "i don't know, blah, blah" Im like Whatever, and I don't try to convince him either way and let him pick on his own.
of course he took the Broncos +3
even worse he took Broncos +10 under 55.5 teaser for the rest of his roll. Claimed that it was a "lock" and "easy money" and a "safety bet".
He calls me about midway through the 3rd quarter to say "congrats on your pick".
I couldn't help but chuckle and think "i tried to tell ya".
my stepdad does the same thing EVERY week. This week I tell him stay away from Jets and Colts...
What does he do? Calls his bookie right before the 4:15 games and takes them both.
I tell him stay away from Denver last night. He doesn't listen again.
Last week I told him stay away from the Giants laying 9 on the road on MNF. Doesn't listen again...
Quote Originally Posted by midnight_toker:
the public are like my friends.
they know football but they dont know how to BET football.
my friend had a 3 team parlay that he made on my account (he paid me cash)
Indy -1 Saints +3 Jets -3
needless to say......
so he calls me up today and sayz "so whats the play today?" (he conceded bragging rights to me after i won big on Oakland, he also vowed he would follow all my picks cuz he lost his ass off)
so I sayz "the play is the Patriots". After alot of "i don't know, blah, blah" Im like Whatever, and I don't try to convince him either way and let him pick on his own.
of course he took the Broncos +3
even worse he took Broncos +10 under 55.5 teaser for the rest of his roll. Claimed that it was a "lock" and "easy money" and a "safety bet".
He calls me about midway through the 3rd quarter to say "congrats on your pick".
I couldn't help but chuckle and think "i tried to tell ya".
my stepdad does the same thing EVERY week. This week I tell him stay away from Jets and Colts...
What does he do? Calls his bookie right before the 4:15 games and takes them both.
I tell him stay away from Denver last night. He doesn't listen again.
Last week I told him stay away from the Giants laying 9 on the road on MNF. Doesn't listen again...
You need examples?...Ok, this is retarded, but did you not see how well your "theory" panned out? It does make a difference. Public all over Denver last night, line didn't move..Who won? ya get it? I wasn't bashing, Mr. Sensitive. Ok wait...it's pathetic to start a thread, bashing people cause they look at what side the public is on and wanting to fade. In the end, you think you found a system? Wake up...people have been doing this for years...this is stupid..What are you, 9 yrs old?
Bet with your wallet not your heart
You need examples?...Ok, this is retarded, but did you not see how well your "theory" panned out? It does make a difference. Public all over Denver last night, line didn't move..Who won? ya get it? I wasn't bashing, Mr. Sensitive. Ok wait...it's pathetic to start a thread, bashing people cause they look at what side the public is on and wanting to fade. In the end, you think you found a system? Wake up...people have been doing this for years...this is stupid..What are you, 9 yrs old?
Why would the books take risk of trying to pick sides. They are not in the business of gambling, the bettors are. The percentages does not have anything to do with where the money is at. just because 80% of some website is betting on a team doesn't me huge money isn't coming in on the other side.
LIke I wrote, I used to believe the same thing. When 95% of the bets are coming in on one side it is very hard to believe that the other 5% are basically betting almost twenty times as much on the unpopular pick and if that is happening these are rich people who obviously know what they are doing, right? A rich idiot would probably go with the popular pick as well right?
Books get hurt. I remember books reeling after the Ohio State/USC game earlier this season. Now you tell me how that would be possible if they had even action money wise. It would not be possible. Vegas got hurt by the Super Bowl because so many people bet the Giants' Moneyline. If they wanted even action on that they would have actually had to decrease it in value but they did not want to do that because they would have to increase the Patriots' ML in value as well and they were sure they would win.
I remember reading about huge money coming in on USC over Oregon State. Not bets, money. And the line hardly even budged. They took a side there and won. That is what usually happens....
There are a million examples. The fact is that some of these lines that come out would have to be changed dramatically to get even action. That hardly ever happens. I think the action is even on a lot of these games, like PIT/NYG this weekend, but on other ones like BUF/MIA it could not be more clear that they are taking a side. Do you really expect the same amount of money to be on Miami against the great looking Bills at basically a pick em?
And why take the risk? Insider trading, plain and simple. They are rich beyond belief and have eyes and ears everywhere. Of course they are not going to share their information with us... Ever see Casino? Ace was so good precisely because he made a point of knowing things others did not. Vegas is basically Ace to the tenth power, and when you know so much more, why not exponentially increase the profit margin by putting out lines that beg the public to pound what you think will be a near certain loser?
Quote Originally Posted by lkreb6135:
Why would the books take risk of trying to pick sides. They are not in the business of gambling, the bettors are. The percentages does not have anything to do with where the money is at. just because 80% of some website is betting on a team doesn't me huge money isn't coming in on the other side.
LIke I wrote, I used to believe the same thing. When 95% of the bets are coming in on one side it is very hard to believe that the other 5% are basically betting almost twenty times as much on the unpopular pick and if that is happening these are rich people who obviously know what they are doing, right? A rich idiot would probably go with the popular pick as well right?
Books get hurt. I remember books reeling after the Ohio State/USC game earlier this season. Now you tell me how that would be possible if they had even action money wise. It would not be possible. Vegas got hurt by the Super Bowl because so many people bet the Giants' Moneyline. If they wanted even action on that they would have actually had to decrease it in value but they did not want to do that because they would have to increase the Patriots' ML in value as well and they were sure they would win.
I remember reading about huge money coming in on USC over Oregon State. Not bets, money. And the line hardly even budged. They took a side there and won. That is what usually happens....
There are a million examples. The fact is that some of these lines that come out would have to be changed dramatically to get even action. That hardly ever happens. I think the action is even on a lot of these games, like PIT/NYG this weekend, but on other ones like BUF/MIA it could not be more clear that they are taking a side. Do you really expect the same amount of money to be on Miami against the great looking Bills at basically a pick em?
And why take the risk? Insider trading, plain and simple. They are rich beyond belief and have eyes and ears everywhere. Of course they are not going to share their information with us... Ever see Casino? Ace was so good precisely because he made a point of knowing things others did not. Vegas is basically Ace to the tenth power, and when you know so much more, why not exponentially increase the profit margin by putting out lines that beg the public to pound what you think will be a near certain loser?
Established in 1995,
Bad start for disproving the myth 
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