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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    Im going to end the fade the "public" FAIRY TALE

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    jasonwhitesknee
    aaaa1
    BurningPlanet26
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    weeks
    weeks
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    Posted: Oct. 19, 2008 - 8:29 AM ET #1

    Ok,hiya guys.
     
    Im really miffed as to way so many put the public betting perception into their capping of a game.Some even just oppose the public consensus .
    " the public are all over"
    " fade the public"
    " the squares are betting "
     
    I say it makes no difference what the  " public " are betting .I say its a fairy story and as believeable as father christmas,infact Id go as far to say its nigh on ridiculous...ok,so there is only one way to prove it.Im going to track the top 10 public plays from this week in and keep a running bankroll total,both for the public and the fade the public gang.
    You can take your consensus % from wherever you like but for this exercise(cause its easy) Im taking them from edited There will be 10 each week and for ease for me,it will be done at 8am est every sunday.Each bet will be $110 to win $100.
     
    Now here is my prediction come the end of the regular season.The fade the "public" and the "public" bets will both be in the negative.Id like peoples predictions on the +/- of each side before we begin.LETS PUT THIS FAIRY STORY TO BED once and for all,there can be no arguements as to the merits of taking the public perception into account once this exercise proves its a myth.BTW If Im proved wrong I`ll hold my hands and,hey we may have found a system
    I`ll update the bankrolls each week.
     
     
     
     
     
     
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Ok,hiya guys.
     
    Im really miffed as to way so many put the public betting perception into their capping of a game.Some even just oppose the public consensus .
    " the public are all over"
    " fade the public"
    " the squares are betting "
     
    I say it makes no difference what the  " public " are betting .I say its a fairy story and as believeable as father christmas,infact Id go as far to say its nigh on ridiculous...ok,so there is only one way to prove it.Im going to track the top 10 public plays from this week in and keep a running bankroll total,both for the public and the fade the public gang.
    You can take your consensus % from wherever you like but for this exercise(cause its easy) Im taking them from edited There will be 10 each week and for ease for me,it will be done at 8am est every sunday.Each bet will be $110 to win $100.
     
    Now here is my prediction come the end of the regular season.The fade the "public" and the "public" bets will both be in the negative.Id like peoples predictions on the +/- of each side before we begin.LETS PUT THIS FAIRY STORY TO BED once and for all,there can be no arguements as to the merits of taking the public perception into account once this exercise proves its a myth.BTW If Im proved wrong I`ll hold my hands and,hey we may have found a system
    I`ll update the bankrolls each week.
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
    weeks
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    Posted: Oct. 19, 2008 - 8:36 AM ET #2

    Fck that looks a mess,maybe pasting wasnt the best option,I`ll type them in
     
    1 Jets -3.5
    2 Colts -2
    3 Bears -3
    4 Houston -10
    5 Giants -11
    6 Cowboys -7
    7 Dolphins -3
    8 Titans -9.5
    9 Saints +3
    10 Broncos +3
     
    Till next week
    Reply
    Fck that looks a mess,maybe pasting wasnt the best option,I`ll type them in
     
    1 Jets -3.5
    2 Colts -2
    3 Bears -3
    4 Houston -10
    5 Giants -11
    6 Cowboys -7
    7 Dolphins -3
    8 Titans -9.5
    9 Saints +3
    10 Broncos +3
     
    Till next week
     
    jasonwhitesknee
    jasonwhitesknee
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    Posted: Oct. 19, 2008 - 8:53 AM ET #3

    Nigh on ridiculous you say?
    Reply
    Nigh on ridiculous you say?
     
    weeks
    weeks
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    Posted: Oct. 19, 2008 - 8:55 AM ET #4

    Thanks Mod,cheers buddy
     
    Only one way to find out JWK,gl buddy
    Reply
    Thanks Mod,cheers buddy
     
    Only one way to find out JWK,gl buddy
     
    weeks
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    Posted: Oct. 19, 2008 - 8:56 AM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by jasonwhitesknee:

    Nigh on ridiculous you say?

    BTW Id like your prediction as to the +/- at the regular season end .

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by jasonwhitesknee:

    Nigh on ridiculous you say?

    BTW Id like your prediction as to the +/- at the regular season end .

     
    jasonwhitesknee
    jasonwhitesknee
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    Posted: Oct. 19, 2008 - 8:58 AM ET #6

    Don't handicap NFL.  I just bet $20 on every underdog on the board every week. 
     
    BTW, blanket fade the public isn't smart but I do like reverse linemovement.
    Reply
    Don't handicap NFL.  I just bet $20 on every underdog on the board every week. 
     
    BTW, blanket fade the public isn't smart but I do like reverse linemovement.
     
    weeks
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    Posted: Oct. 19, 2008 - 9:05 AM ET #7

    Reverse line movement is a totally different fish,were not going there jwk.
    This is for the boys who just think cause the "public" is all over a side its a negative.
    FWIW I think there is some substance in the reverse line movement theory.
    Reply
    Reverse line movement is a totally different fish,were not going there jwk.
    This is for the boys who just think cause the "public" is all over a side its a negative.
    FWIW I think there is some substance in the reverse line movement theory.
     
    weeks
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    Posted: Oct. 19, 2008 - 10:42 AM ET #8

    JWK,I see there is reverse line movement in the Jets game,would be interesting to track it through the season.
    Maybe next year.
    Reply
    JWK,I see there is reverse line movement in the Jets game,would be interesting to track it through the season.
    Maybe next year.
     
    weeks
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    Posted: Oct. 19, 2008 - 11:36 AM ET #9

    For future reference. %
     
     
    1 Jets -3.5.......86%
    2 Colts -2..........79%
    3 Bears -3.........71%
    4 Houston -10....71%
    5 Giants -11......71%
    6 Cowboys -7....66%
    7 Dolphins -3.....66%
    8 Titans -9.5.....65%
    9 Saints +3......63%
    10 Broncos +3....63%
     
    Good luck today folks
    Reply
    For future reference. %
     
     
    1 Jets -3.5.......86%
    2 Colts -2..........79%
    3 Bears -3.........71%
    4 Houston -10....71%
    5 Giants -11......71%
    6 Cowboys -7....66%
    7 Dolphins -3.....66%
    8 Titans -9.5.....65%
    9 Saints +3......63%
    10 Broncos +3....63%
     
    Good luck today folks
     
    aaaa1
    aaaa1
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    Posted: Oct. 19, 2008 - 11:40 AM ET #10

    Do not post that site link again. Thank you.
    Reply
    Do not post that site link again. Thank you.
     
    weeks
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2008 - 3:03 AM ET #11

    Ok,I didnt know it wasnt allowed,wont post the source again.No need for the childish little sign,but attention, oh,well,anyways.
     
    Right,lets see how the "public" got on so far this week !
     
     
     
    1 Jets -3.5.......L
    2 Colts -2.........L
    3 Bears -3........W
    4 Houston -10...L
    5 Giants -11......W
    6 Cowboys -7....L
    7 Dolphins -3.....L
    8 Titans -9.5......W
    9 Saints +3.......L
    10 Broncos +3....Pending.
     
    Betting a $110 to win a $100
     
    "Public"  3-6 .......................-$360
    "Fade the public" 6-3............+$270
     
    A good start for blindly fading the public consensus and a drubbing for the "public".
    Could be a bloodbath for public bettors this week if  Denver fail to cover tonight.
    Will update tomorrow......BOL Tonight guys
     
    Reply
    Ok,I didnt know it wasnt allowed,wont post the source again.No need for the childish little sign,but attention, oh,well,anyways.
     
    Right,lets see how the "public" got on so far this week !
     
     
     
    1 Jets -3.5.......L
    2 Colts -2.........L
    3 Bears -3........W
    4 Houston -10...L
    5 Giants -11......W
    6 Cowboys -7....L
    7 Dolphins -3.....L
    8 Titans -9.5......W
    9 Saints +3.......L
    10 Broncos +3....Pending.
     
    Betting a $110 to win a $100
     
    "Public"  3-6 .......................-$360
    "Fade the public" 6-3............+$270
     
    A good start for blindly fading the public consensus and a drubbing for the "public".
    Could be a bloodbath for public bettors this week if  Denver fail to cover tonight.
    Will update tomorrow......BOL Tonight guys
     
     
    BurningPlanet26
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2008 - 3:18 AM ET #12

    Pretty cool thread here my friend. Keep up the good work. I do wonder if you just did the games the public was all over (85%+)where the line did not move if the percentage would be higher than otherwise. Sort of like the Reverse Line Theory Lite.
     
    There will be weeks where the public wins like two weeks ago but over time I think you will see they lose at a clip large enough to profit from fading them, though it might not be very much. I think fading the public works if you have other elements of the game capped in your favor as well.
    ---
    I used to think that mindset was a fairy tale too and that Vegas just wanted even action on both sides, living off the vig. Now I think that is the fairy tale. They take sides in some games and when they do they have a higher winning percentage than any capper in the land.
    Reply
    Pretty cool thread here my friend. Keep up the good work. I do wonder if you just did the games the public was all over (85%+)where the line did not move if the percentage would be higher than otherwise. Sort of like the Reverse Line Theory Lite.
     
    There will be weeks where the public wins like two weeks ago but over time I think you will see they lose at a clip large enough to profit from fading them, though it might not be very much. I think fading the public works if you have other elements of the game capped in your favor as well.
    ---
    I used to think that mindset was a fairy tale too and that Vegas just wanted even action on both sides, living off the vig. Now I think that is the fairy tale. They take sides in some games and when they do they have a higher winning percentage than any capper in the land.
     
    BetCrimes1984
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2008 - 3:20 AM ET #13

     You're starting late - Overs & Favs were quite away ahead on the season by the end of week 5, but week 6 saw a correction towards the mean and so you're startig your task the moment that (Dog/Under) correction has already started to kick in.
    Reply
     You're starting late - Overs & Favs were quite away ahead on the season by the end of week 5, but week 6 saw a correction towards the mean and so you're startig your task the moment that (Dog/Under) correction has already started to kick in.
     
    BurningPlanet26
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2008 - 3:32 AM ET #14

    He is not talking about overs and favorites he is talking about who the public is on. The public does like dogs and unders too you know, LOL.
    Reply
    He is not talking about overs and favorites he is talking about who the public is on. The public does like dogs and unders too you know, LOL.
     
    BetCrimes1984
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2008 - 3:34 AM ET #15

    no kidding, but the extent they favour the one's I highlighted over the opposite is well known.
    Reply
    no kidding, but the extent they favour the one's I highlighted over the opposite is well known.
     
    weeks
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2008 - 3:49 AM ET #16

    Thanks for the replies guys.

    BP26,I hear you,Ive added the % to the selections so that at a later date I can breakdown if the higher % of public plays does return a +/-  in the long run.I too also think that the juice(vig) will get both players come the season end,I expect both players to be showing a loss by the end of the regular season,we`ll see.

    Betcrimes,yes I realise starting in week 7 isnt ideal but its all I got till next season,thanks for dropping by.

     

     

     

    Reply

    Thanks for the replies guys.

    BP26,I hear you,Ive added the % to the selections so that at a later date I can breakdown if the higher % of public plays does return a +/-  in the long run.I too also think that the juice(vig) will get both players come the season end,I expect both players to be showing a loss by the end of the regular season,we`ll see.

    Betcrimes,yes I realise starting in week 7 isnt ideal but its all I got till next season,thanks for dropping by.

     

     

     

     
    weeks
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2008 - 3:57 AM ET #17

    Something worth noting,re betcrimes statement regarding favs etc;
    Out of the top 10 public bet games this week,only 2 were dogs,(marginal dogs at that)..I dont know if this trend will continue but worth keeping an eye on.
    Reply
    Something worth noting,re betcrimes statement regarding favs etc;
    Out of the top 10 public bet games this week,only 2 were dogs,(marginal dogs at that)..I dont know if this trend will continue but worth keeping an eye on.
     
    sysco9
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2008 - 4:41 AM ET #18

    How do we even know the numbers for the public bets are even accurate?  How does that number come about anyway?  Does it only count the number of bets made at a handful of casinos in Vegas? or a handful of online sportsbooks?

    I just don't see how the number of public bets can be calculated with so many different bookies/casinos to bet with.
    Reply
    How do we even know the numbers for the public bets are even accurate?  How does that number come about anyway?  Does it only count the number of bets made at a handful of casinos in Vegas? or a handful of online sportsbooks?

    I just don't see how the number of public bets can be calculated with so many different bookies/casinos to bet with.
     
    Mr.Win
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2008 - 5:02 AM ET #19

    Each game is different. Trends means nothing, the public means nothing. The touts here mean nothing. Take each game individually, go with your gut and lay down the money. Then you have no one to blame but yourself.

    There ARE good angles that come into play each game, and things like the weather and injuries play a role. But all of these "trends", "sucker bets" , "reverse line moves" and "public fades" are for losers. I went 16-6 this week by not falling for the tout wanna-be's....it really isn't that difficult.

     How can you cap a blocked punt??? Two Peyton pick sixes??? Kicking a FG when your team is down 21 points??? You can't.
    Reply
    Each game is different. Trends means nothing, the public means nothing. The touts here mean nothing. Take each game individually, go with your gut and lay down the money. Then you have no one to blame but yourself.

    There ARE good angles that come into play each game, and things like the weather and injuries play a role. But all of these "trends", "sucker bets" , "reverse line moves" and "public fades" are for losers. I went 16-6 this week by not falling for the tout wanna-be's....it really isn't that difficult.

     How can you cap a blocked punt??? Two Peyton pick sixes??? Kicking a FG when your team is down 21 points??? You can't.
     
    weeks
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2008 - 5:08 AM ET #20

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.Win:

    Each game is different. Trends means nothing, the public means nothing. The touts here mean nothing. Take each game individually, go with your gut and lay down the money. Then you have no one to blame but yourself.

    There ARE good angles that come into play each game, and things like the weather and injuries play a role. But all of these "trends", "sucker bets" , "reverse line moves" and "public fades" are for losers. I went 16-6 this week by not falling for the tout wanna-be's....it really isn't that difficult.

     How can you cap a blocked punt??? Two Peyton pick sixes??? Kicking a FG when your team is down 21 points??? You can't.

     

    Exactly,didnt you read the opening post

     

    Thats what this thread is supposed to be proving,keep up man

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.Win:

    Each game is different. Trends means nothing, the public means nothing. The touts here mean nothing. Take each game individually, go with your gut and lay down the money. Then you have no one to blame but yourself.

    There ARE good angles that come into play each game, and things like the weather and injuries play a role. But all of these "trends", "sucker bets" , "reverse line moves" and "public fades" are for losers. I went 16-6 this week by not falling for the tout wanna-be's....it really isn't that difficult.

     How can you cap a blocked punt??? Two Peyton pick sixes??? Kicking a FG when your team is down 21 points??? You can't.

     

    Exactly,didnt you read the opening post

     

    Thats what this thread is supposed to be proving,keep up man

     
    weeks
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2008 - 5:11 AM ET #21

    Quote Originally Posted by sysco9:

    How do we even know the numbers for the public bets are even accurate?  How does that number come about anyway?  Does it only count the number of bets made at a handful of casinos in Vegas? or a handful of online sportsbooks?

    I just don't see how the number of public bets can be calculated with so many different bookies/casinos to bet with.

    Morning sysco9,the accuracy doesnt matter.People base their fade the "public" figures on these numbers,so we`ll base our test on these numbers.

    GL

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by sysco9:

    How do we even know the numbers for the public bets are even accurate?  How does that number come about anyway?  Does it only count the number of bets made at a handful of casinos in Vegas? or a handful of online sportsbooks?

    I just don't see how the number of public bets can be calculated with so many different bookies/casinos to bet with.

    Morning sysco9,the accuracy doesnt matter.People base their fade the "public" figures on these numbers,so we`ll base our test on these numbers.

    GL

     
    Mr.Win
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2008 - 5:30 AM ET #22

    Quote Originally Posted by weeks:

     

    Exactly,didnt you read the opening post

     

    Thats what this thread is supposed to be proving,keep up man



    My comments weren't directed at you specifically, just comments made in the thread in general. Keep on keeping on man!!!
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by weeks:

     

    Exactly,didnt you read the opening post

     

    Thats what this thread is supposed to be proving,keep up man



    My comments weren't directed at you specifically, just comments made in the thread in general. Keep on keeping on man!!!
     
    tazzman54
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2008 - 5:47 AM ET #23

    THUYe public loves the favorite (expecially at home and generally the over.... Believe it or not they dont like the under according to a PHysch friend of mine ,  when it goes over (expecially on Monday night )) their done and that depresses them! 
    Reply
    THUYe public loves the favorite (expecially at home and generally the over.... Believe it or not they dont like the under according to a PHysch friend of mine ,  when it goes over (expecially on Monday night )) their done and that depresses them! 
     
    weeks
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2008 - 6:12 AM ET #24

    Oh sorry Mr Win...ok nps buddy
     
    Tazzman that would make perfect sense cause in general people dont like to bet things not to happen.They dont want to sit watching the MNF wanting a defensive battle,they want to see points scored.
    Reply
    Oh sorry Mr Win...ok nps buddy
     
    Tazzman that would make perfect sense cause in general people dont like to bet things not to happen.They dont want to sit watching the MNF wanting a defensive battle,they want to see points scored.
     
     
    Crodies73
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2008 - 6:22 AM ET #25

    the percentages do matter because if you are getting them from one site or casino then you do not have the correct numbers. One site can say 85% for Indy but when combined with bets from other casinos Indy could be 54% and you cant count that as a Public bet.
     
    The only way to really know what the public is betting on is if you get over 30K bets to compare.
    Reply
    the percentages do matter because if you are getting them from one site or casino then you do not have the correct numbers. One site can say 85% for Indy but when combined with bets from other casinos Indy could be 54% and you cant count that as a Public bet.
     
    The only way to really know what the public is betting on is if you get over 30K bets to compare.
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