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I have $2,000.00 max to lose this season.. I start it Now

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Legend
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Posted: #126
Quote Originally Posted by claycourtlesson:

Van-
 
All respect to you, OK?
 
But unless you are a pro (yes, I am well aware that you do this for a living, so props to you), there is no damn way you can cap 16 or so games for one day.  No way.

With all respect right back at you - there is no way that you or anybody can tell me whether you are a pro or a beginner that an arbitrary time period like "a day" can be used to limit your games.

Sorry - there is no way you can convince me of that.

You might be able to convince me that a basic handicapper can only come up with one EV play per day for X reason - but that is different than saying that you should blanket "limit your plays to one a day" for now reason whatsoever.

Bottom line is that you should identify +EV situations and bet ALL OF THEM - whether they are on the same day, hour, week, or month - those time periods are IMMATERIAL to the discussion of EV.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #127
Quote Originally Posted by BarryDingle31:

MovinUnits: I don't like losing, it doesn't do good things for my personality, whether it's losing at a video game for pride against my friends or losing money at choosing which team is better than the other... I really enjoy this and thats why I set aside money, as an Investment like they say, and I want this to grow, but I need a better strategy..

Rule # 3...scared money never wins. If you are confident that a 25 dollar bet will win, why not make it a 1000 dollar bet- reason, fear. i say you dont bet a dime unless you believe in it. I relize this is sports where anything can happen. you seem to be focused more on losing than winning. not good. if your playing not to lose then your limiting yourself in a way. it shouldnt be about outlasting the other guy for 12 rounds- it should be about ending it in the first. you can do it.

 
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Posted: #128
2.  Once you know your goal it is simple math.
 
No. Once you know your math, your goal is simple.
 
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Posted: #129
Van-
 
When you first started gambling, how did you do it?
 
Since I am a "gambler," I would "wager" that when you first started gambling to make money (not have fun), you simplified things----for instance: not taking on too many bets at once for focus reasons.
 
Seems like a beginner would want to keep things contained right off the bat?
 
You got the floor.
 
Legend
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Posted: #130
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Look - I will try to keep this short and sweet because there has already been so much written here - so here are some bullet points and if you want me to expand any of these just ask:
 
1.  First and foremost - how can anyone suggest "2% max bet" or any other number without finding out from the original poster what his goal is?  This is the step that is constantly missed and overlooked - and the single most important step in the MM process.  If OP wants to double his money in 5 plays - then 2% wont possibly get him there - and makes no sense.  If his goal is to make his bankroll last as long as possible, then 2% maybe makes sense.
 
2.  Once you know your goal it is simple math.
 
3.  All of this anecdotal advice about only playing 1 or 2 plays per day is NONSENSE.  A "day" is an arbitrary time period set up by YOU - not by math and probabiliity.  If you bet 15 games one day and none for 14 days, it is the same as betting 1 a day for 15 days.  All of the other nonsense about public sharp stuff - all handicapping stuff is nonsense.  As pocketmoney correctly states above - bet every game you have a perceived +EV.
 
4.  MM is more important than handicapping.
 
5.  MM along with juice reducing strategies, middling strategies, and line movement strategies make handicapping about 10th on the list of things that make someone successful at sportsbetting.

Hey Van...thanks for re-enforcing what pocketmoney was trying to explain...I agree with the two of you completely.

 
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Posted: #131
Movinunits:  Of course, every bet I make, I theoretically believe they are good bets and are going to win.. but practically I know its impossible to get every bet right, or even most bets right, but at least I'll know I managed my money the best possible way I could, I can't help how good my capping is.. This is an uncertain game, anything can happen, if I lose $1,000.00 on a game then its gonna be a struggle getting it back..and trust me i've turned a small bet into a big one before and thats not the right strategy, I can x that one out..
 
Vanzack: I agree, 2% is not enough for any bankroll, and I agree with "day" being arbitray, it's just a measuring tool for time,.  I do have a question.. lets say my goal is to get to $10,000.00 for the end of the season, so +$8,000.00..  What would be my variables for the equation.. how should I handle an actual Week (1 to 17 + playoffs) of NFL?
 
Bshards: You're getting in my head, I guess because Doubling or Tripling as the toping wouldn't attract people that want to help me.
 
 
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Posted: #132
Quote Originally Posted by BarryDingle31:

Movinunits:  Of course, every bet I make, I theoretically believe they are good bets and are going to win.. but practically I know its impossible to get every bet right, or even most bets right, but at least I'll know I managed my money the best possible way I could, I can't help how good my capping is.. This is an uncertain game, anything can happen, if I lose $1,000.00 on a game then its gonna be a struggle getting it back..and trust me i've turned a small bet into a big one before and thats not the right strategy, I can x that one out..
 
Vanzack: I agree, 2% is not enough for any bankroll, and I agree with "day" being arbitray, it's just a measuring tool for time,.  I do have a question.. lets say my goal is to get to $10,000.00 for the end of the season, so +$8,000.00..  What would be my variables for the equation.. how should I handle an actual Week (1 to 17 + playoffs) of NFL?
 
Bshards: You're getting in my head, I guess because Doubling or Tripling as the toping wouldn't attract people that want to help me.
 

Now we are getting somewhere:

1.  Goal +8000

2.  Bankroll 2000

3.  Picks per week

4.  Weeks per season (20)

5.  Expected handicapping percentage

 

Answer #3 and #5 above and I will lay out the math for you.

And BTW - for all of you 2% guys in this thread - your head is going to spin when you see what percentage this guy has to bet to hit his goal.

But his goal is aggressive - and the only way he can do it is by laying out what I will lay out for him.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #133
There are lots of ways to make $8,000  You might want to open up to other sports during the season.  Like college basketball for example.  There will be teams that will go 30-2 this season, take the ML for the easy wins and skip the close games.  There are games on 7 days a week.
 
Also never bet hockey!!!!!
 
Legend
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Posted: #134
Quote Originally Posted by STEVEPERRY:

There are lots of ways to make $8,000  You might want to open up to other sports during the season.  Like college basketball for example.  There will be teams that will go 30-2 this season, take the ML for the easy wins and skip the close games.  There are games on 7 days a week.
 
Also never bet hockey!!!!!

Great advice!!

Now, tell us which teams will go 30-2, and which games will be "easy wins" and which games will be close.  That way we can do as you say, bet the easy games and skip the close ones, and win 30 bets and only lose 2.

I really appreciate this.  Let us know.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posted: #135
Quote Originally Posted by STEVEPERRY:

There are lots of ways to make $8,000  You might want to open up to other sports during the season.  Like college basketball for example.  There will be teams that will go 30-2 this season, take the ML for the easy wins and skip the close games.  There are games on 7 days a week.
 
Also never bet hockey!!!!!

Great advice!!

Now, tell us which teams will go 30-2, and which games will be "easy wins" and which games will be close.  That way we can do as you say, bet the easy games and skip the close ones, and win 30 bets and only lose 2.

I really appreciate this.  Let us know.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #136
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Look - I will try to keep this short and sweet because there has already been so much written here - so here are some bullet points and if you want me to expand any of these just ask:
 
1.  First and foremost - how can anyone suggest "2% max bet" or any other number without finding out from the original poster what his goal is?  This is the step that is constantly missed and overlooked - and the single most important step in the MM process.  If OP wants to double his money in 5 plays - then 2% wont possibly get him there - and makes no sense.  If his goal is to make his bankroll last as long as possible, then 2% maybe makes sense.
 
2.  Once you know your goal it is simple math.
 
3.  All of this anecdotal advice about only playing 1 or 2 plays per day is NONSENSE.  A "day" is an arbitrary time period set up by YOU - not by math and probabiliity.  If you bet 15 games one day and none for 14 days, it is the same as betting 1 a day for 15 days.  All of the other nonsense about public sharp stuff - all handicapping stuff is nonsense.  As pocketmoney correctly states above - bet every game you have a perceived +EV.
 
4.  MM is more important than handicapping.
 
5.  MM along with juice reducing strategies, middling strategies, and line movement strategies make handicapping about 10th on the list of things that make someone successful at sportsbetting.

No doubt comments from a well respected capper.  However, to suggest handicapping is about 10th on this list of things that make someone successful at sportsbetting is horseshit.  Absolutely, money management...shopping for the best juice etc. is absolutely critical....extremely important.  But if capping the games is 10th on the list...all money management does is ensure you play for a longer period as you slowly drain your funds down the drain.  If you can't cap worth a damn...5 cent lines won't save your ass in the long run.

Also...who is the chap in the avatar...just curious?

 
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Posted: #137
bet 500 a game and then get to 5 k.............then bet 1k a game to get to 8k........then go down to 200 a game until you get to the end number of 10k.......
 
does that work?
 
 
getting to 10k from 2k van, i understand what you are saying, but you havent mentioned the fact that he has to be DONE when he loses his 2k.............i do not get the feeling from this guy that he is done if the 2k is lost.....
 
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Posted: #138
Allbutbroke..............just in case you are new to the covers scene..............the person you are criticizing is a proven professional gambler that bets more on one game than many on this site make in one year.......gl
 
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Posted: #139
Luckythirteen: It will be hard if I lose the original $2,000.00.. as I said before, it's a long season with a lot of paychecks inbetween, you never know when you might want to re-invest (but I'm gonna focus on the present first).. and hopefully the reason I lost the $$ is fixable (poor $ money management is fixable).  It also depends when I would lose it if I would re-buy.. But anyways, you're missing the whole point of this post, I do need help.  I need some sort of discipline or money management strategy.. It's absolutely crucial, theres a lot of money and time at stake here.. Thats why I appreciate everyones opinions, criticisms, and advice, because I need people to look at my situation from the outside (sometimes its too hard to see when you're in it).. and I probably will make mistakes this season, but hopefully people will be there to let me know why they were mistakes..

Vanzack:  Ok, I can tell I like your style already.
 
Answer to # 3 (how many picks a week):  Lets say  2 @ 1 p.m  1 @ 4:00 p.m  and then sunday and monday night...   
so lets say  between 5 to 7 picks per week

Answer to #5: (expected capping %):  well this is the big one.. I'm not sure but I would like to say If I'm disciplined to bet just the games I like.  keep in mind NO JUICE when I lose (i know i'm lucky here)... how about 55% to 60% (obviously I can't say losing % b/c I know the answer)  

 
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Posted: #140
OK - so with the following parameters:
 

1.  Goal +8000

2.  Bankroll 2000

3.  Picks per week: 6

4.  Weeks per season (20)

5.  Expected handicapping percentage: 57%

6.  Juice percentage:  0

So with those parameters, you would need to bet $500 per game in order to hit your goal.  It breaks down to a projected record of 68-52 for your 120 games over the season, and at 0% juice you will win 16 more games than you lose, which means you need to bet 500 per game in order to reach your goal of 8K.

Now - I will tell you - it is more likely that you will lose your 2k than win your 5k.  According to my math, using your given parameters of winning percentage, you will lose 2k before you win 8k in 7.6 times out of 10 tries - and that is even at 57%.  This is due to variance, a whole other topic.

But - if you want to win 8k and are willing to risk the 2k to do it - and you dont care if you are out on week #1 - you only care about the goal - you should bet 500 per game.

Now - before anyone comes in here and tries to tell me I am crazy for advocating 25% of bankroll size bets - save it.  THIS IS MATH. Im not judging, Im just delivering the facts.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posted: #141
Alright, using the following parameters:
 
1.  Bankroll 2000
2.  Goal 8000
3.  Selections 120
4.  Juice 0%
5.  Expecting winning percentage 57%
 
Using those parameters, you would need to bet $500 per game in order to reach your goal.  That breaks down to a record of 68 and 52 over the 120 games, and at 0% juice that equals 16 more wins than losses, and 500 per each of those wins.
 
This is the only way to reach your stated goal with your parameters.
 
Now - you have to understand that you are much more likely to lose your 2k than win your 8k.  According to my math, you will lose your 2K 7.6 times out of 10, even with your parameters and winning percentage due to variance.
 
Before all of you start to tell me Im an idiot for advocating 25% bankroll bets - save it.  Im not.  Im just delivering the facts that based on his stated goal this is the only way to do it.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posted: #142
Wow.  Sorry for the double post - kind of.
 
I had to retype it becaue it seemed like i hit submit and it didnt go through, so I tried it again from memory.
 
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #143
Vanzack has been around and his college picks are usually very good.  BigDaddy knows Hawaii football. 
Very good info on money management and betting styles/progressions and gambling philosophies in general.
Self-control and self-discipline is key to every beginner I think.  The main battle is not b/w you and the house but you and yourself. know when to hold em, know when to fold em and know when to run.
if you are out just for entertainment, then do what you want.  if you are serious, take the good advice and stick to your win and loss limits.  GL this season
 
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Posted: #144
Hey Vanzack, I was wondering if you could give some insight into juice reducing strategies, middling strategies, and line movement strategies that you mentioned in your above post.
 
Also, if you have time, some of the ways a new bettor could cap football games. I'm very interessted in learning, and was hoping for a good place to start.
 
Thanks
 
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Posted: #145
Start Money: $2,000.00
Present Money: $2,200.00
NET:  +$200.00
(6 Separate Bets)

Ok, I'm already , how can you not when you're up, no matter how much.  This post could possibly be the best help I could asked for.. especially thanks to Bigdaddy and Vanzack for the insight and experience you've helped me gain already, and everyone else..hopefully I can continue to stay focused and disciplined.  I also hope youall will let me know If you think I'm doing something stupid, I truly appreciate the help, cause I know I need it!!

Anyway, I was feeling pretty good about my pick tonight for preseasson football, Until I realized...
 *the home team is 10-0 the last 10 game sin SF vs CHI (home team won 8 of them by more than 10, including 3 pre-season games)  also only 3 of those games have went under

The favorite is also 9-1 in the 10 game series

but then I got happy when I saw
Chicago: 8-20 ATS last two weeks of preseason


It's hard for me to go against a matchup where home team is 10-0 and favorite is 9-1...

Week 3 Picks: (trying to stay consistent in preseason, hopefully get some extra for regular season)

1.) SF +3.5 for $50.00 
2.) Over 36 for $50.00
 
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Posted: #146
Well, boys and girls........
 
7 more days 'til football season..................
 
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Posted: #147
Been one long, long, long arduous off-season.
 
'Bout killed me, too.
 
Am already dreading the 2009 off-season when the Pro Bowl is over in Feb '09...............
 
Legend
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Posted: #148
I was waiting for you to say what you just said.
 
It is classic, and is what every novice gambler does.
 
"My goal is to make 8k over 120 games but I will bet 50 bucks a game"
 
Ready for this?  IF YOU GO 120-0 - YES 120-0 - YOU WILL WIN 6000!!!
 
How can your goal be 8k and you bet 50 per game?
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #149
Vanzack:  I guess because if I had to make the true choice of betting preseason or not betting preseaons I would say NOT.. However I am, so my goal for preseason is to try to get at least +$500 until theregular season starts..  I guess you can look at this as preseason for my betting, I don't bring out my 1st team money unless I really like something or if its regular season.. afterall you did say 20 weeks in NFL, which means you werent including preseason I assume, i'm glad you're watching me though, please continue to do so, Critisism is good if taken correctly
 
 
 
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Posted: #150
with almost a identical bankroll this year. I'm only betting 30-40 a game and my goal is to finish with a $1,500 profit.

BOL Tonight with your picks. I actually have both of the same so GL.
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