1.) SF +3.5 for $50.00 = Win 2.) Over 36 for $50.00 = Win Ok I'm increasing a bit Because this is Week 3 preseason, I'm feeling good bout this picks, and I'm feeling I made them in a clear mind with good judgement, now it's up to the players.. This is honest truth of my plays, I just put them in a minute ago.. 3.) Atlanta -3 for $100.00 4.) OVER in ATL for $100.00 5.) New England -2.5 for $150.00 6.) OVER in NWE for $50.00
1.) SF +3.5 for $50.00 = Win 2.) Over 36 for $50.00 = Win Ok I'm increasing a bit Because this is Week 3 preseason, I'm feeling good bout this picks, and I'm feeling I made them in a clear mind with good judgement, now it's up to the players.. This is honest truth of my plays, I just put them in a minute ago.. 3.) Atlanta -3 for $100.00 4.) OVER in ATL for $100.00 5.) New England -2.5 for $150.00 6.) OVER in NWE for $50.00
Theprez: What show? and is there anyway I can still listen or watch it?
Vanzack: You are definitely a very knowledgeable person in my opinion, not just in gambling, but it sounds like you're a well rounded person in general.. , and it seems you were paying attention to the show..I'm glad you listened/watched the show because I would want someone with your experience to critique the show anyway . Sounds like they probably were just trying to reach a broad range of people. and not focus in on individual peoples goals... Anyway, I increased my bets a bit here, but I feel like maybe its a bad idea to take a side and an over/under in the same game,... what do you think? (i do feel good about them though) Maybe its better to take an over/under in a separate game and just a team in another?
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Theprez: What show? and is there anyway I can still listen or watch it?
Vanzack: You are definitely a very knowledgeable person in my opinion, not just in gambling, but it sounds like you're a well rounded person in general.. , and it seems you were paying attention to the show..I'm glad you listened/watched the show because I would want someone with your experience to critique the show anyway . Sounds like they probably were just trying to reach a broad range of people. and not focus in on individual peoples goals... Anyway, I increased my bets a bit here, but I feel like maybe its a bad idea to take a side and an over/under in the same game,... what do you think? (i do feel good about them though) Maybe its better to take an over/under in a separate game and just a team in another?
Ok...I have to ask this. What did your research tell you to take in the Super Bowl? Most people figured the Patriots had the superier talent and they would at least win. A Patriots ML lost had to hurt if you took it.
I did like the patriots, but I never bet the big games. No NBA finals or final four cause anything can happen. The mens olympic gold medal game is an exception, since there is a clear talent/skill advantage. I did lose $100 to a friend, I had NE -12.5 But I made it up on props that the first score would be from a player with an odd number jersey, Maroney, NE's running back I believe it was.... Also once your playing with the books money you tend to bet a loosely.....
Wager Type:
Future
Wager Status:
Win
Risk/To Win Amount:
274.00 / 100.00 (CAD)
Date Accepted:
3-February-2008
Time Accepted:
2:38:07 PM (Pacific)
Amount Paid:
374.00
Description
Superbowl XLII Props
Various Comparison Props
Player to score the first touchdown will have
Odd Number Jersey -274
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Quote Originally Posted by WillRadar:
Ok...I have to ask this. What did your research tell you to take in the Super Bowl? Most people figured the Patriots had the superier talent and they would at least win. A Patriots ML lost had to hurt if you took it.
I did like the patriots, but I never bet the big games. No NBA finals or final four cause anything can happen. The mens olympic gold medal game is an exception, since there is a clear talent/skill advantage. I did lose $100 to a friend, I had NE -12.5 But I made it up on props that the first score would be from a player with an odd number jersey, Maroney, NE's running back I believe it was.... Also once your playing with the books money you tend to bet a loosely.....
Oh yeah, Pinnacle is a much better book than 5 Dimes, but as an American citizen governed by the lies and hypocrisy of my elected government, I am "not allowed" to use Pinnacle.
And I haven't taken the time to go through the hurdles which would allow me to "beat the system."
5 Dimes is a good book for chump change bettors-----like I am. Any bet over 500 rocks------you got to call them and get it approved.
Sheet, probably no one who bets at Pinnacle ever even bets less than 500 rocks a game.
Maybe one day...........798,000 years from now.....the USA will pull its head out of its ass for a millisecond and realize that legal, regulated gambling would be a nice way to add revenue to its system of hypocrisy.
Betting on the stock market is legal, crappola like lotto/slots is legal, but for some reason unbeknownst to me, getting down on the gdmf-ing nightly game is sheer heresy.
the good ol' USA and her policies
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Oh yeah, Pinnacle is a much better book than 5 Dimes, but as an American citizen governed by the lies and hypocrisy of my elected government, I am "not allowed" to use Pinnacle.
And I haven't taken the time to go through the hurdles which would allow me to "beat the system."
5 Dimes is a good book for chump change bettors-----like I am. Any bet over 500 rocks------you got to call them and get it approved.
Sheet, probably no one who bets at Pinnacle ever even bets less than 500 rocks a game.
Maybe one day...........798,000 years from now.....the USA will pull its head out of its ass for a millisecond and realize that legal, regulated gambling would be a nice way to add revenue to its system of hypocrisy.
Betting on the stock market is legal, crappola like lotto/slots is legal, but for some reason unbeknownst to me, getting down on the gdmf-ing nightly game is sheer heresy.
Week 3 Picks: Thurs 1.) SF +3.5 for $50.00 = Win 2.) Over 36 for $50.00 = Win Fri: 3.) Atlanta -3 for $100.00 = Win 4.) OVER in ATL for $100.00 = Lose 5.) New England -2.5 for $150.00 = Lose 6.) OVER in NWE for $50.00 = Win 7.) GB +3 for $50.00 = Win 8.) Under 38 for $50.00 = Lose
Saturday: 9.) Cle @ Det: Under 41 for $100.00
*10.) NYG +3 over NYJ for $200.00
11.) Bal over St. Louis for $100.00
**Why is NYJ home? I think NYG is gonna have to show New York who the boss is..
Week 3 Picks: Thurs 1.) SF +3.5 for $50.00 = Win 2.) Over 36 for $50.00 = Win Fri: 3.) Atlanta -3 for $100.00 = Win 4.) OVER in ATL for $100.00 = Lose 5.) New England -2.5 for $150.00 = Lose 6.) OVER in NWE for $50.00 = Win 7.) GB +3 for $50.00 = Win 8.) Under 38 for $50.00 = Lose
Saturday: 9.) Cle @ Det: Under 41 for $100.00
*10.) NYG +3 over NYJ for $200.00
11.) Bal over St. Louis for $100.00
**Why is NYJ home? I think NYG is gonna have to show New York who the boss is..
Week 3 Picks: Thurs 1.) SF +3.5 for $50.00 = Win 2.) Over 36 for $50.00 = Win Fri: 3.) Atlanta -3 for $100.00 = Win 4.) OVER in ATL for $100.00 = Lose 5.) New England -2.5 for $150.00 = Lose 6.) OVER in NWE for $50.00 = Win 7.) GB +3 for $50.00 = Win 8.) Under 38 for $50.00 = Lose Saturday: 9.) Cle @ Det: Under 41 for $100.00 = Win *10.) NYG +3 over NYJ for $200.00 = PUSH 11.) STLover BAL for $100.00 = Win 12.) OVER 34.5 (STLvBAL) for $50.00 = LOSE SUNDAY: 13.)Bills +6 over IND for $100.00 14.)UNDER 38.5 for $50.00 ** I don't think INDY will come to play without P. Manning.. However I do kind of feel that this is a trap game, but I can't see how Colts will cover. If they do it will be by either fluke TD's (pick 6, fumbles, or kickoff returns) I do see Indy bringing their defense, I just hope they don't set up the offense too well..
Week 3 Picks: Thurs 1.) SF +3.5 for $50.00 = Win 2.) Over 36 for $50.00 = Win Fri: 3.) Atlanta -3 for $100.00 = Win 4.) OVER in ATL for $100.00 = Lose 5.) New England -2.5 for $150.00 = Lose 6.) OVER in NWE for $50.00 = Win 7.) GB +3 for $50.00 = Win 8.) Under 38 for $50.00 = Lose Saturday: 9.) Cle @ Det: Under 41 for $100.00 = Win *10.) NYG +3 over NYJ for $200.00 = PUSH 11.) STLover BAL for $100.00 = Win 12.) OVER 34.5 (STLvBAL) for $50.00 = LOSE SUNDAY: 13.)Bills +6 over IND for $100.00 14.)UNDER 38.5 for $50.00 ** I don't think INDY will come to play without P. Manning.. However I do kind of feel that this is a trap game, but I can't see how Colts will cover. If they do it will be by either fluke TD's (pick 6, fumbles, or kickoff returns) I do see Indy bringing their defense, I just hope they don't set up the offense too well..
hey Barry...maybe you should start a new thread for your picks....just a suggestion.......when these threads get so long, it takes forever to load it seems.......
anyways.......looking forward to winning some games this year and getting to our goals!!!!
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hey Barry...maybe you should start a new thread for your picks....just a suggestion.......when these threads get so long, it takes forever to load it seems.......
anyways.......looking forward to winning some games this year and getting to our goals!!!!
Trap Game??? It's pre-season.... If I were to bet it would only be week 3 and all players would be healthy and it would be a great team vs a crap team, otherwise your better off playing baccarat....
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Trap Game??? It's pre-season.... If I were to bet it would only be week 3 and all players would be healthy and it would be a great team vs a crap team, otherwise your better off playing baccarat....
your goal is to win 8k, what happens if you win before the season is over like midway? do you stop or do readjust your goals etc. just speaking hypothetically of course since we all know once you lose your 2k you are thru no matter what point you are at. to me even if you fall short of your stated goal but end up in the plus that would be great or even if come out of the season without losin all of your 2k that is ok since you played the whole season with what you started with and didn't lose it all.
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your goal is to win 8k, what happens if you win before the season is over like midway? do you stop or do readjust your goals etc. just speaking hypothetically of course since we all know once you lose your 2k you are thru no matter what point you are at. to me even if you fall short of your stated goal but end up in the plus that would be great or even if come out of the season without losin all of your 2k that is ok since you played the whole season with what you started with and didn't lose it all.
3. All of this anecdotal advice about only playing 1 or 2 plays per day is NONSENSE. A "day" is an arbitrary time period set up by YOU - not by math and probabiliity. If you bet 15 games one day and none for 14 days, it is the same as betting 1 a day for 15 days. All of the other nonsense about public sharp stuff - all handicapping stuff is nonsense. As pocketmoney correctly states above - bet every game you have a perceived +EV.
Vanzack, you can't be serious with that NONSENSICAL point you made about a day being hypothetical. Your perceived +EV is going to be at its highest when you wager HEAVIEST on the game on that DAY with the highest +EV.
If you do fall into the trap of betting too many games in 1 day, how do you make the impossible determination of how much to risk on each selection? And surely you don't like each game equally to where you would encourage flat betting. This is where your argument falls apart.
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
3. All of this anecdotal advice about only playing 1 or 2 plays per day is NONSENSE. A "day" is an arbitrary time period set up by YOU - not by math and probabiliity. If you bet 15 games one day and none for 14 days, it is the same as betting 1 a day for 15 days. All of the other nonsense about public sharp stuff - all handicapping stuff is nonsense. As pocketmoney correctly states above - bet every game you have a perceived +EV.
Vanzack, you can't be serious with that NONSENSICAL point you made about a day being hypothetical. Your perceived +EV is going to be at its highest when you wager HEAVIEST on the game on that DAY with the highest +EV.
If you do fall into the trap of betting too many games in 1 day, how do you make the impossible determination of how much to risk on each selection? And surely you don't like each game equally to where you would encourage flat betting. This is where your argument falls apart.
Hey guys - a few of you asked what radio show - Teddy and I do a radio show everyday called Covers Radio and we talk about what is going on in the forums. You can find it under the more button on the menu at the top of covers. As for vanzack and his comments - anytime someone takes the time to write that much - I am impressed - you are a genius and I welcome on you on our show anytime you like to espouse your vanzackinisms - just email service@coversexperts.com and tell them the prez wants you on the show - who wouldnt.
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Hey guys - a few of you asked what radio show - Teddy and I do a radio show everyday called Covers Radio and we talk about what is going on in the forums. You can find it under the more button on the menu at the top of covers. As for vanzack and his comments - anytime someone takes the time to write that much - I am impressed - you are a genius and I welcome on you on our show anytime you like to espouse your vanzackinisms - just email service@coversexperts.com and tell them the prez wants you on the show - who wouldnt.
Hey guys - a few of you asked what radio show - Teddy and I do a radio show everyday called Covers Radio and we talk about what is going on in the forums. You can find it under the more button on the menu at the top of covers. As for vanzack and his comments - anytime someone takes the time to write that much - I am impressed - you are a genius and I welcome on you on our show anytime you like to espouse your vanzackinisms - just email service@coversexperts.com and tell them the prez wants you on the show - who wouldnt.
Finally, a little respect!! And a new word devoted to me - "vanzackinisms", this day couldnt get any better. Thank you for recognizing the genius that is vanzack.
Unfortunately, unless you have one of those voice muffler things and face blurring device - I can never come out of my cave in central afghanistan to address anything gambling related. There are people who would like to silence my genius by any means necessary, and I cant expose myself to that threat - or even public humiliation which I am sure would follow a radio appearance where my severe stuttering and lisp would render my genius useless.
Keep up the good work though, and keep inspiring those squares to keep losing money. Somebody has to - it makes those of us who win jobs a lot easier.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by theprez:
Hey guys - a few of you asked what radio show - Teddy and I do a radio show everyday called Covers Radio and we talk about what is going on in the forums. You can find it under the more button on the menu at the top of covers. As for vanzack and his comments - anytime someone takes the time to write that much - I am impressed - you are a genius and I welcome on you on our show anytime you like to espouse your vanzackinisms - just email service@coversexperts.com and tell them the prez wants you on the show - who wouldnt.
Finally, a little respect!! And a new word devoted to me - "vanzackinisms", this day couldnt get any better. Thank you for recognizing the genius that is vanzack.
Unfortunately, unless you have one of those voice muffler things and face blurring device - I can never come out of my cave in central afghanistan to address anything gambling related. There are people who would like to silence my genius by any means necessary, and I cant expose myself to that threat - or even public humiliation which I am sure would follow a radio appearance where my severe stuttering and lisp would render my genius useless.
Keep up the good work though, and keep inspiring those squares to keep losing money. Somebody has to - it makes those of us who win jobs a lot easier.
Vanzack, you can't be serious with that NONSENSICAL point you made about a day being hypothetical. Your perceived +EV is going to be at its highest when you wager HEAVIEST on the game on that DAY with the highest +EV.
If you do fall into the trap of betting too many games in 1 day, how do you make the impossible determination of how much to risk on each selection? And surely you don't like each game equally to where you would encourage flat betting. This is where your argument falls apart.
Since you are asking....
A day is a time period. Why not the best game that hour? Or every 2 days. Or every week? Why do you suggest a person pick out the best game THAT DAY?
What if my 3rd best game today would be my best game tomorrow and every day after that? What if my worst +EV pick today would be my best +EV play a week from Tuesday?
The "day" has nothing to do with anything. If you bet your best bet each day, at the end of the week you have not bet your best 7 plays of that week. And at the end of the year you have not played your best 365 plays that year. A day is arbitrary.
Now - on to your second question. I do suggest flat betting to people unless they can statistically prove that they have better results with their better assigned EV plays. So if someone tells me "I hit my plays that I score a 58 or better at 60%, and my plays that I score a 54 to 57 at 57%...." - then I say by all means use a graduating scale to range your bets.
Problem is, most cant do this. They think they can, but results dont prove them right. So I do suggest flat betting with a cutoff. Even the great vanzack flat bets anything that I score over 55% for football because I have not seen that my higher percentages win at a higher rate than my 55.1% plays. Im a realist. But I also know that there are some that range their bets for solid reasons.
But most dont. Most assume that they LOVE a game today and bet 10 units on it, and the LIKE a game tomorrow and bet 1 unit on it - without ever studying the difference between their LIKE and LOVE.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by wizardofroz:
Vanzack, you can't be serious with that NONSENSICAL point you made about a day being hypothetical. Your perceived +EV is going to be at its highest when you wager HEAVIEST on the game on that DAY with the highest +EV.
If you do fall into the trap of betting too many games in 1 day, how do you make the impossible determination of how much to risk on each selection? And surely you don't like each game equally to where you would encourage flat betting. This is where your argument falls apart.
Since you are asking....
A day is a time period. Why not the best game that hour? Or every 2 days. Or every week? Why do you suggest a person pick out the best game THAT DAY?
What if my 3rd best game today would be my best game tomorrow and every day after that? What if my worst +EV pick today would be my best +EV play a week from Tuesday?
The "day" has nothing to do with anything. If you bet your best bet each day, at the end of the week you have not bet your best 7 plays of that week. And at the end of the year you have not played your best 365 plays that year. A day is arbitrary.
Now - on to your second question. I do suggest flat betting to people unless they can statistically prove that they have better results with their better assigned EV plays. So if someone tells me "I hit my plays that I score a 58 or better at 60%, and my plays that I score a 54 to 57 at 57%...." - then I say by all means use a graduating scale to range your bets.
Problem is, most cant do this. They think they can, but results dont prove them right. So I do suggest flat betting with a cutoff. Even the great vanzack flat bets anything that I score over 55% for football because I have not seen that my higher percentages win at a higher rate than my 55.1% plays. Im a realist. But I also know that there are some that range their bets for solid reasons.
But most dont. Most assume that they LOVE a game today and bet 10 units on it, and the LIKE a game tomorrow and bet 1 unit on it - without ever studying the difference between their LIKE and LOVE.
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the good ol' USA and her policies
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