The World Cup gets underway on Thursday, with Mexico and South Africa facing off at the legendary Estadio Azteca in front of a sold-out crowd.
This might not be a vintage Mexico team, but with home advantage, my Mexico vs South Africa predictions have to back them to take all three points comfortably, with a win by Over 1.5 goals.
Read on for my World Cup picks for Thursday, June 11, with kickoff at 3:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
Mexico vs South Africa prediction and best bet
Best bet: Mexico -1.5 (+130)
Javier Aguirre’s Mexico’s 4-3-3 focuses on possession, and their experienced heads will be key here as they are among the outsiders in the World Cup odds.
Raul Jimenez can get the goals, Orbelin Pineda has shown real guile in the Greek Super League this season, and Alvaro Fidalgo’s ability to help transition the ball will be integral.
They’re now undefeated since last October, and the positive news is that their final World Cup tune-up saw them put five past Serbia.
South Africa topped their qualifying group, but they still gave up nearly a goal a game, despite playing the likes of Lesotho and Zimbabwe.
Add in their early exit at AFCON, and it’s a team that can’t often translate their quick passing game, with speedy transitions, when they face superior opposition.
Recent form is concerning, with just one win in four friendlies before this tournament.
Back Mexico to win by -1.5 up to +115.
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Mexico vs South Africa projected lineup
Mexico (4-3-3): Ochoa; Sanchez, Montes, Alvarez, Gallardo; Gutierrez, Fidalgo, Pineda; Alvarado, Jimenez, Quinones
South Africa (4-3-3): Williams; Mudau, Mbokazi, Okon, Modiba; Mbatha, Sithole, Mokoena; Appollis, Foster, Moremi
Mexico vs South Africa injuries
Mexico: No injuries to report.
South Africa: No injuries to report.
Mexico vs South Africa weather
At 1:00 PM on Thursday (local time), the weather at Estadio Azteca will be mostly cloudy and very warm, with a high of approximately 32°C (feels like 36°C) and around a 10% chance of rain.
Mexico vs South Africa odds
 Mexico |
 South Africa |
|
|---|---|---|
| -233 | Moneyline | +809 |
| +400 | Draw | +400 |
| Over 2.5 (+127) | Total | Under 2.5 (-127) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Mexico vs South Africa
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | Estadio Banorte, Mexico City, Mexico |
| Date | Thursday, June 11, 2026 |
| Time | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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