To start, I will admit I am a Texans homer.
However, there are few things to consider if you are going to take Dallas in this tilt:
First, I disagree that Cowboys have more motivation in this one. As mentioned before, for those not from Texas, Dallas and Houston HATE each other(cities and the teams). I assure you the Texans will come to play, even if they are 2-0. On top of that, the crowd will be a factor in this game. I would imagine it will be a Battle Red Sunday for the Texans. I would predict that the atmosphere in Reliant will be absolutely crazy. I know the Cowboys need to win, but the Texans will be equally motivated.
Second, I belive both teams are different from years past. As someone who has watched about 95% of their games in franchise history, this team definitely has a swagger that has been missing before. Its not just that they are 2-0, its the way they won. First, by dismantling the Super Bowl Colts to the point their defense gave up in the fourth quarter. Second, by continuing to fight, even while trailing by 17 late in the third quarter. Previous Texans teams have not been able to do either. As for the Cowboys, does anybody else think they look down right terrible? They have talent on both sides of the ball, but what gives? Their offensive line is terrible, they cant protect, and get no movement in the run game. Their defense is the only thing keeping them from total embarassment.
As far as matchups go, the key will be the Texans D vs Dallas O. The Texans are young in the secondary. Therefore, Houston needs to get pass rush going to be effective(which they did in the preseason matchup without blitzing much). In order to win, Dallas cannot turn the ball over. For the other side, there is not another team in the NFL with an offense that is humming like the Texans O right now. Over 260 yards rushing in week one, then 500 yards passing the next week, what other team has that kind of versatility? But Dallas D is strong, Ware is a top 5 NFL player regardless of position.
If you take the public out the equation, just looking at the two teams, Houston should be a double digit favorite. Knowing that the Texans will come out strong and watching the Cowboys first two games, WHY would anyone take the cowboys going into a hostile environment against a hot team? There is a decent chance this could be relatively close game, but there is the same chance the 'Boys could lose by several touchdowns.
In order to consider taking the Boys, I would need a touchdown and hope for a backdoor cover. As it is, I see the line moving, droping to the 1-1.5 range come gametime. As long as it is under three, I will be betting heavy on the Texans. Huge opportunity here.
BOL
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