Conference winners.

Eviscerate was a strong word. But IMO Carolina is clearly the superior team. Can't fault anyone for taking the 4.5 expecting a tight game. I may even go 75% ML on CAR as I've found SBs much more enjoyable when you win when the winner does. I've had favs who didn't cover in SBs and it stinks. This is the one game a year I'll just ML the fav and not mess with the points. I still like to enjoy the game.

DEN D great no doubt but Carolina is #2 in DVOA. Carolina has also scored 49, 31, 27, 24, and 37 points on the other Top 10 DVOA defenses this season. In those games they are averaging 22 first downs per game and 386 yards (20 more than they average vs the rest of the league). They've been great against the best the league has had to offer. That is the hallmark of a great team. Carolina is going to score points here no doubt about it. 

Can Denver keep up? I just don't see it. Manning just doesn't look good at all. I see no evidence he's going to be able to move the ball on the #2 D. I mentioned earlier how losing those CBs really hurt as a reason I liked Zona. I thought a good QB who could throw down the field would expose that weakness. It didn't happen and I don't believe Manning is the guy to do it. He's completed 56% and 53% for 5.5 YPA and 6.0 YPA in the playoffs. He's just missing throws. He's the same guy he's been all season. The only difference in the two playoff games is those misses aren't landing in the arms of the other team. We have the #1 and #2 Ds here but Carolina's offense is demonstrably better. Denver can't create big plays and can't sustain drives (#25 in 3rd down % and they've gone 9-32 in the playoffs). 

You could argue Denver has the experience edge, but I think it's negligible. You're only as good as your leaders. Ron Rivera has been here before as a player. He's been in big games. Cam Newton is the most confident guy you'll see. The man has never shown me any evidence he's going to wilt. He sure didn't in big games in college. If Rivera and Cam are confident then the team will be too. In fact, Peyton Manning's career is littered with instances of him shitting the bed. I almost wonder if he'll put too much pressure on himself to win his last game. And Gary Kubiak???

I can defininetly understand people saying Carolina won't play as well as last week. They won't. But is it out of the question to see them force an old immobile QB into TO again? I don't think Denver plays as well as last week either. That was their offense. They are what they are. Bottom 8-10 in the league. The defense played out if it's mind though. I know their good but that was a performance they won't be able to duplicate. They lose homefield, and most importantly they play a waaaay better offensive line. The Pats line was a huge weakness all year (like Denver's QB) and it caught up to them. They are also going to need a spy on Cam. 

I've watched 12 or 13 Carolina games from start to finish this season. They are just awesome. Big, physical monsters. Monsters in the front 7, a shutdown corner, and DE playing QB, a LB playing RB, and a DT playing fullback. They MASH teams. This is my favorite team since the 2013 Seahawks. They've been the best team all season and are just finally getting respect. These guys are going to go 18-1 and it will take all that for people to finally realize just how good they are.

Had Denver large last week but blew a lot of the winnings on Zona and Zona Under.

I laid the wood on -195 and -160 (1h) on SIA, and got some on -3.5 -109 pinnacle Sunday night.  Will probably buy back some on Denver spread and set up a middle opp if I can get a tasty 5.5-6 which is never out of the question in Canada.

Any feel for the total. I think both teams can move the ball (even Peyton) but I think there will be some turnovers that may ruin some longer drives.

All valid points you make.  But I want to just reiterate you have to be careful basing past performance to predict future performance.  Like right now no one can bet against Cam and they look unstoppable.  But Peyton and Denver looked pretty damn good and unstoppable heading into the SB v Seattle a few years ago.  

That season, Peyton closed the last 5 games of the season with 19 TD passes, 1755 yds and 67% completion %.   Also his 2 playoff games heading into the SB:

25-36, 230 yds 2 TDS in a 24-17 win v SD

AND

32-43, 400 yds 2 TD in a 26-16 win v NE

We all know what happened in that Seattle game.  The fact that they had that huge embarrassment makes me think there is no chance they show up flat in this SB.  But again, I also lost a TON of $$ thinking there was no chance the Pats would lose the 2nd SB to NYG.  

Line has crept up to +5...

I love Denvers D, I really do but one thing I learned watching Dolphins games this year is that when you are one dimensional like the Patriots are/were on Sunday, it is 10x easier to play defense then vs a balanced team.

Like Glyde, I like the under because both defenses are legit AF but I don't really like much in this game and will find some props and such to bet.

Fun side note regarding Denver. I am 1-8 ATS betting on them this year. Including my largest bet of the year GB over Denver on sunday night. I faded them their first 7 games of the year and the only time they didn't cover was vs the Vikings week 4...I then bet on them vs Colts which they lost, so I laid off all year until I took NE last week...Denver is my arch enemy, so I won't be going on this game big.

Also, if you are backing Denver solely expecting their defense to shut down Carolina like they did vs NE I would think twice. Carolina tore up a great defense in Seattle. Moving the ball at will, at will for a whole half. I expect they will put up enough points to win. Denver will not be able to pin their ears back and have Miller and D Ware pressure like crazy. Just my opinion which should make you like Denver because I will be on Carolina even though I'm surprised it is 5 points. I expected 3.5 MAX.

GL all 

I've seen this stat mentioned 1500 times already. It's all over this forum, other forums, and twitter. This was a great stat when only a few knew about it. As soon as something like this becomes mainstream then it becomes obsolete.

Two stats that aren't mainstream:

Teams in the playoffs after winning a playoff game SU as a home dog are 1-15 ATS and 0-16 SU in their next game since 1987.

Carolina is 22-2 SU & 16-8 ATS in their last 24 games. They've been kicking behind for a season and a half!

I'll take the 22-2 team. 

What's your twitter handle, Andy?

Andy, that 1-15 ATS/0-16 SU stat is absolutely absurd!! I'm all over the place with this game. If I can go back in time, I probably would have pulled the trigger early in the 3rd quarter when the advance line for Carolina over Denver was -2(strangely Zona was -2.5 SMH). 

I snoozed on that(which I'm fine with as unless I have a game circled and I'm waiting for a particular spot, or I see a game Monday morning where I know I like a squad and I know the line is moving against me, I don't pound as many games early like I used to). But then the line opened at -3.5, and I figured to sit back and let things settle, keep an eye on some injuries I saw through the day.....then it was 4.5 in a blink. 

Okay, now I realize I messed up and the line passed all the key numbers, and I have no choice but to sit back as a Panther backer and hope some Denver money plus maybe a big syndicate/tout release Denver as a play and bring it back down. But now I peek and I see Carolina is a heavily juiced -5.5. 

I gotta think if it hits 6.....almost feel like I have to go Denver at this point. Their defense alone.....I think there's a chance that in a decade this defense will be looked at like the 85 Bears, 90 giants, 00 Ravens, 02 Bucs, and most recently and possibly the best in a new era of offense, the 13 Seahawks. And I do know that their style is more suited to shut down a more typical modern day offense like the Pats or Cards, but in the end, I do think they shut down Carolina's run game and ultimately leave the game 100% on Cam's arm. Which is where that defense can pin their ears back, rush 4-5 guys creatively and from all different spots and get pressure, and do it so their base defense in the secondary are loaded up exactly where they have to be(doubling Olsen and Ginn and trying to bait Newton into a mistake similar to what(ahh I can't think of his name) but the Denver LB did to Brady on his pick of him. 

So giving a defense that good 6 points on a neutral field...gonna be hard to pass up even knowing just how good this panther is. When they were 4-0, 5-0, I said "impressive BUT....."  When they were 6-0, 7-0, I said "impressive comeback over the Seahawks, but........" It took me awhile, but by midseason or so, I really came to respect just how good this team was. I always thought the head coach was a guy who sooner or later would make some bad calls and botch a game or two, but hes quietly been excellent all year. They players obviously get up for him. The defense is absolutely fantastic and fly around the ball. This team is LEGIT. 

I just don't know if I can lay 6 with them though. Manning obviously is not only past his prime, but arguably borderline AWFUL. But my concerns with him are more athletic. His brain is still going strong, and I'm hoping his play and intuition at the line pre-snap will be enough to at the very least....put his players where they need to be to make plays. If his line can only protect him and he can "athletically" make plays with his arm. If he throws some bad picks early, or if he gets hit and fumbles....it might be a long long night. But IF he plays clean. And even a night where he's 23-39 202 yards 2 TD 0 turnovers. And the run game can keep the defense honest with a 25 carry, 80-90 yard performance.....that coupled with the Denver defense playing an A game should be enough to cover 6 points. 

I'm cooked right now, but tomorrow I was gonna look at the league and try to find the teams that run an offense similar to Carolinas. I know that they are fairly unique, but I'm hoping to narrow it down to a couple of teams this great Denver D played this year, and see exactly how the defense worked to stop the run. If they stopped it, how did they adapt as the game progressed? What kind of success did they have both before and after the run game had to be respected? When Denver faced mobile QB, how did they fare stopping their legs, and more importantly what strategy did they use to stop said QB(was it a disciplined D playing contain, did they use a LB to tail the QB all game so their ends could focus on getting to the QB, etc etc). 

I think we are gonna see a helluva game next Sunday! 

GL with that, I took Denver +6, Carolina is a good team but they don't scare me offensively regardless of the points they been scoring, ton of turnovers in that Arizona game. Arizona was the wrong style of defense to face Carolina. Over aggresive alot of blitzing wrong vs mobile qb, misdirection burned them, reverses etc. I was all over Carolina last week.  Denver hit Brady 23 x his previous high getting hit this year was 12x.  Denver only blitzed 10 x all game, there speed rushers on the end can beat any o line, they tackle well.  I don't see guys being stuck man to man a whole lot they will rush there 4 guys and keep Carolina in front of them. Denver team has a lot of players from the team that was killed by Seattle a couple of years ago, I was on Seattle in that game, this is fresh in there minds, they won't let it happen again.  Carolina was celebrating like they won the sb after last weeks win. Hard to duplicate that type of effort in back to back weeks.  Denver was happy but knows its got one more game to win.  I will take the team that has been there recently, experienced team looking to let Peyton Manning go out in the blaze of glory.  Denver +6 6600 Denver +220 2000...My man Andy you jumped off the wagon when you shouldn't of and your jumping back on when you shouldn't

Completion percentage: 66%, 56%, 70%, 82%, 62%, 75%, 72%, 67% , 74%. 

QB rating: 82, 87, 93, 115, 112, 104, 123, 124, 101.

Peyton Manning completed 59.8% of his passes this season. He had ONE game with a rating of over 100 (vs the Lions). He's completing 55% in the playoffs with an 82 rating. He's just not a good QB. Sure, he can make line checks and call out blitzes, but sooner or later you have to make throws. Denver won two home games this playoffs 1. Against a team beat to all hell, whose 3rd string RB cost them the game, and 2. A game where the defense played a 99.9999 game. As well as Denver's defense played last week, NE was 2 yards away from forcing OT. I think we all respect what Manning has done in his career but if you watched this guy throw the football and looked at his stats and not the name on the back of the jersey, you'd wonder why he's in the league. He's terrible.

I don't like the matchup either. Norman is the #1 CB in this NFL. He will take Thomas away. He was matched up vs Floyd last week and Floyd had one catch for 8 yards all game until the final two plays when Norman was off the field. That leaves Sanders and Daniels. Carolina was #1 in NFL vs TE so it's unlikely Daniels does much. Sanders is a great WR but behind him is Jordan Norwood and Bennie Fowler. Neither of whom broke 200 receiving all season. Is an old noodle-armed, Peyton Manning beating an 18-1 with that? Clearly CAR does have good receivers either but the difference is they have an elite QB who can throw guys open. Cam throws bullets. Ropes. And can place balls in tight coverage down the field. Manning throws wobbly ducks up for grabs hoping his guys can make the play.

I know I'm focusing a lot on the Denver offense. But I just don't think they are going to be able to score. What if they get down? Is Manning good enough to lead them back? Denver's weak o-line has also been swept under the rug the last couple weeks. Manning had the 2nd highest sack% of his career this year. Carolina has a great front 7. Manning can't do much even without pressure, what is he going to do with Short and crew coming up the gut?

My thoughts on the game could mean nothing as I'll likely put most of my $$$ on the ML. But when the line is 6 or less the spread winner wins the game about 90% of the time. 

roasted - Den blitzed 10 times last week because they got pressure with 3 men. NE's o-line was a sieve. They had a backup RT taking on Von Miller and the LT was out of position. The interior stinks. Carolina's o-line is infinitely better and they are also going to need a spy on Cam. They will need 5 guys at the LOS every play. Big difference from last week when they could drop 8. Also much harder for DEN to duplicate their effort from last week than CAR. CAR has been blowing teams out all year. Letting Peyton go out in a blaze of glory sounds great, but not all stories have happy endings. Disagree with your experience point as well. Denver is starting 4 of the 22 players they did in the SB two years ago, and they have replaced the entire coaching staff. 2013 and 2015 Broncos are not even close to the same group. 

Do you guys think the line goes up any higher or there is some strong buy back?  I want to reduce exposure on some great Lina ML prices I got last week.

very good 

Good to see you posting. Bol with your plays.

Agree 100%. 6.5 is inviting people to buy to 7 and set up huge middles. I'm expecting it to start ticking down Thurs/Fri.

Based on what? Completion % is the only thing I could think of. Cam was 3rd in the NFL behind Brady and Wilson on 3rd down passer rating at 101. Manning was horrific at 51.2.

Remember Cam also runs a ton on 3rd down. He had 56 rushing FD this year and Carolina was 7th as a team. Denver was 25th. In no way, shape or form is Carolina anywhere near 31st in anything 3rd down related.

I've seen it argued if DEN takes away Stewart in the run game and forces Cam to convert on 3rd down that it will hurt CAR. Against Top 16 DVOA run D's this year Carolina is converting exactly the same % as they are for the season. Again, they play great against great competition.

DEN against Top 16 DVOA run D's have been pathetic, cnverting 32%. In 8 games Manning has played vs Top 16 run defenses Denver has averaged 283 yards per game and 1.5 offensive TD. The 283 yards would have been dead last if rated over the full year this year and only 1 team in each of the previous 4 years had been worse. Bottom line is you limit Denver's run game and force Manning to make plays and it's just a disaster waiting to happen.

I'll give you Vasquez playing. I missed him. Those other guys you listed never played in the Super Bowl 2 years ago. Even if you count them I still think it's an entirely different team.

I'd also very careful of using PFF for line stats. Good article here: 

https://www.bostonsportsmedia.com/2014/06/can-pro-football-focus-stats-be-blindly-trusted

If Bill Belichick can't reliably grade line players because he doesn't know the assignments, do you think a bunch of guys in an office in Ireland can accurately do so?