Got the flu. Fever is at 101(which to me is DEATH). At one point today, I was hallucinating in the shower and I thought I was Doughboy from Boyz in the Hood.
Lean Zona +3 and Denver +3. My book never showed 3.5 or I would have locked Denver.
I'll be back before end of the week to break things down.
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Got the flu. Fever is at 101(which to me is DEATH). At one point today, I was hallucinating in the shower and I thought I was Doughboy from Boyz in the Hood.
Lean Zona +3 and Denver +3. My book never showed 3.5 or I would have locked Denver.
I'll be back before end of the week to break things down.
Fever is simply the body's defense against viral and bacterial infections. It's trying to cook the intruders to death. Usually it works. You'll be better soon. Take care and drink the chicken soup.
Fever is simply the body's defense against viral and bacterial infections. It's trying to cook the intruders to death. Usually it works. You'll be better soon. Take care and drink the chicken soup.
I have been waiting to take Zona in this game for weeks. Everything seems to have lined up. When it happened, I felt Bene Benwikere was the most underrated massive loss of the season. He was Carolina's #2 CB. He and Norman were a great 1-2 punch but the rest of the secondary is pretty weak. The safeties stink in pass coverage but with Norman/Bene, great coverage LBs, and great pass rush, the weaknesses were able to be covered up. But Bene going down shifted everyone up in the secondary. Then they lost Charles Tillman! Not a great player at this stage of his career but much better than what they have left. Now Carolina goes into this game with two bad safties, and Cortland Finnegan and Robert McClain as their #2-3 CB. That's 4/5th of their DB that IMO are pretty bad. A big time pass game with DEPTH at WR is the last thing Carolina wants to see. Zona sure brings that as their WR may be the deepest in the league. Really it's an ideal setup, and I've been waiting to get Zona here as a dog it seems forever.
But.........Something just seems a little off. Not sure what yet. Need to dig into it. I've watched Carolina more than any team this year. They are really bleeping good. Their one weakness is letting off the gas. They've done it 2-3 times this season. But they are monsters at almost every position. Hands down the most physical team in the league. Palmer, with a bad, taped up finger, with a dome team on a cold night on a wet, ugly field vs this front 7 just seems like a shaky proposition. They won in spite of him last week.
I have been waiting to take Zona in this game for weeks. Everything seems to have lined up. When it happened, I felt Bene Benwikere was the most underrated massive loss of the season. He was Carolina's #2 CB. He and Norman were a great 1-2 punch but the rest of the secondary is pretty weak. The safeties stink in pass coverage but with Norman/Bene, great coverage LBs, and great pass rush, the weaknesses were able to be covered up. But Bene going down shifted everyone up in the secondary. Then they lost Charles Tillman! Not a great player at this stage of his career but much better than what they have left. Now Carolina goes into this game with two bad safties, and Cortland Finnegan and Robert McClain as their #2-3 CB. That's 4/5th of their DB that IMO are pretty bad. A big time pass game with DEPTH at WR is the last thing Carolina wants to see. Zona sure brings that as their WR may be the deepest in the league. Really it's an ideal setup, and I've been waiting to get Zona here as a dog it seems forever.
But.........Something just seems a little off. Not sure what yet. Need to dig into it. I've watched Carolina more than any team this year. They are really bleeping good. Their one weakness is letting off the gas. They've done it 2-3 times this season. But they are monsters at almost every position. Hands down the most physical team in the league. Palmer, with a bad, taped up finger, with a dome team on a cold night on a wet, ugly field vs this front 7 just seems like a shaky proposition. They won in spite of him last week.
Carolina offense with Cam is the worst match up for the the Arizona risk taking Defense . Cardinals led the NFL in blitz frequency Cam led with 18 TDs against the blitz. Cam will make Arizona pay for there Blitzing ways. 3 worst qbs Arizona could face are Rodgers, Wilson, and Cam. Carolina only has to rush 4 can play some some zone with Norman playing man in the secondary, Carolina tackles very well, Carson won't be able to hold the ball long, I see Carolina winning this game and covering quite easily. I think they have seen the mistake of letting off the gas vs GB and now more recently Seattle, they won't vs Arizona and whoever they play in the SB.
Carolina offense with Cam is the worst match up for the the Arizona risk taking Defense . Cardinals led the NFL in blitz frequency Cam led with 18 TDs against the blitz. Cam will make Arizona pay for there Blitzing ways. 3 worst qbs Arizona could face are Rodgers, Wilson, and Cam. Carolina only has to rush 4 can play some some zone with Norman playing man in the secondary, Carolina tackles very well, Carson won't be able to hold the ball long, I see Carolina winning this game and covering quite easily. I think they have seen the mistake of letting off the gas vs GB and now more recently Seattle, they won't vs Arizona and whoever they play in the SB.
Initially after the Pitt/Den game I was ready to fade Denver HARD. They looked awful and figured TD Tommy is going to carve them up, Peyton is done, etc. A few days later, I'm actually thinking Denver is the correct side. Lots of quick reactions and it seems like every single person I've spoken to is backing the Pats*. Definitely an overreaction to how poorly Denver played, and a big part of that game were all the WR drops, which cannot happen again (I believe there were 5 in the FH).
I also think people are just forgetting how good this Denver Defense is. Literally as good, if not better than both Arizona and Carolina, AND you are getting 3 points AT HOME...it just doesn't make sense to fade that.
Really like the Peyton Manning closing his career out on a high note angle. Everything is lining up for him to ride off into the sunset with another SB win, cement himself in history, and retire the right way. At the current pace, he is going to retire with people questioning his arm, how he couldn't win the big one, etc...just doesn't feel right for him to end his career like that and he has the chance to completely silence all of that. Its the golden opportunity to put the Seattle SB embarrassment behind him, win another one with an excellent defense backin him up, and get everyone talking about his greatness again and where he ranks in history etc. (he has completely fallen out of that conversation). Not only does he have the chance to win, but he has the chance to BLOW UP that pats for 350 and 4 tds like the old Peyton could. And he has a very legitimate chance to do it, this Pats defense is pretty mediocre.
Storybook ending for Peyton and I think they get it done at home on Sunday.
Still torn on the Arz/Car game, but I may ride w Amac on the cards. Likely locking in Denver, but may wait closer to kick off as the ML may go up, doubt this gets up to 3.5 though.
*this never ends up well- Clemson vs Bama this year, Sparty vs Bama this year, Oklahoma vs Clemson, Bama over LSU 2012, Pats/Gmen SB (both times), etc
heres where I stand...
Initially after the Pitt/Den game I was ready to fade Denver HARD. They looked awful and figured TD Tommy is going to carve them up, Peyton is done, etc. A few days later, I'm actually thinking Denver is the correct side. Lots of quick reactions and it seems like every single person I've spoken to is backing the Pats*. Definitely an overreaction to how poorly Denver played, and a big part of that game were all the WR drops, which cannot happen again (I believe there were 5 in the FH).
I also think people are just forgetting how good this Denver Defense is. Literally as good, if not better than both Arizona and Carolina, AND you are getting 3 points AT HOME...it just doesn't make sense to fade that.
Really like the Peyton Manning closing his career out on a high note angle. Everything is lining up for him to ride off into the sunset with another SB win, cement himself in history, and retire the right way. At the current pace, he is going to retire with people questioning his arm, how he couldn't win the big one, etc...just doesn't feel right for him to end his career like that and he has the chance to completely silence all of that. Its the golden opportunity to put the Seattle SB embarrassment behind him, win another one with an excellent defense backin him up, and get everyone talking about his greatness again and where he ranks in history etc. (he has completely fallen out of that conversation). Not only does he have the chance to win, but he has the chance to BLOW UP that pats for 350 and 4 tds like the old Peyton could. And he has a very legitimate chance to do it, this Pats defense is pretty mediocre.
Storybook ending for Peyton and I think they get it done at home on Sunday.
Still torn on the Arz/Car game, but I may ride w Amac on the cards. Likely locking in Denver, but may wait closer to kick off as the ML may go up, doubt this gets up to 3.5 though.
*this never ends up well- Clemson vs Bama this year, Sparty vs Bama this year, Oklahoma vs Clemson, Bama over LSU 2012, Pats/Gmen SB (both times), etc
Doesnt it feel like Peytons last hurrah is alot like the Ray Lewis & Ed Reeds last SB run, at the end of their careers playing for a last SB run and the team around them is playing above and beyond....
Doesnt it feel like Peytons last hurrah is alot like the Ray Lewis & Ed Reeds last SB run, at the end of their careers playing for a last SB run and the team around them is playing above and beyond....
Doesnt it feel like Peytons last hurrah is alot like the Ray Lewis & Ed Reeds last SB run, at the end of their careers playing for a last SB run and the team around them is playing above and beyond....
No it feels more like Brett Favre's last hurrah where he is a shell of his former self and is one pass away from implosion and killing his teams chances.
Just kidding but no comparing Ray Lewis and Manning is like comparing night and day on so many levels. If you need to compare the two in your own mind to justify taking the Broncos then go for it I guess.
Quote Originally Posted by IWANNAWIN:
Doesnt it feel like Peytons last hurrah is alot like the Ray Lewis & Ed Reeds last SB run, at the end of their careers playing for a last SB run and the team around them is playing above and beyond....
No it feels more like Brett Favre's last hurrah where he is a shell of his former self and is one pass away from implosion and killing his teams chances.
Just kidding but no comparing Ray Lewis and Manning is like comparing night and day on so many levels. If you need to compare the two in your own mind to justify taking the Broncos then go for it I guess.
If Denver wins its because if their defense, and being at home, however it just seems like everyone is under selling Peyton, he can still have a good game...
If Denver wins its because if their defense, and being at home, however it just seems like everyone is under selling Peyton, he can still have a good game...
I've looked these two games up and down. We have 4 really freakin good football teams here. They've been the 4 best all season IMO. These should be tight, tough games that go down to the wire. I can make good cases for both favs, but I still slightly lean both dogs. 3.5 would make me lean them a lot more than 3. BUT....
...Instead of hoping for a 3.5, I'm just going to tease both dogs to 10. I don't really see any scenario - other than Manning/Palmer throwing multiple picks - where there is a blowout in either game. I think with the quality of teams we have that close games are almost guaranteed.
Denver has gone 16-1 against a +10 line this year. Lone loss was Manning's worst game of his career.
Arizona has gone 15-2 against a +10 line this year. And one of those was the W17 game where they called it quits early on.
I like those odds.
Not going to bother sweating for a 3.5. Hitting the Denver +10/Arizona +10 tease for a standard unit and I'm going to sit back and watch what should be two great football games.
I've looked these two games up and down. We have 4 really freakin good football teams here. They've been the 4 best all season IMO. These should be tight, tough games that go down to the wire. I can make good cases for both favs, but I still slightly lean both dogs. 3.5 would make me lean them a lot more than 3. BUT....
...Instead of hoping for a 3.5, I'm just going to tease both dogs to 10. I don't really see any scenario - other than Manning/Palmer throwing multiple picks - where there is a blowout in either game. I think with the quality of teams we have that close games are almost guaranteed.
Denver has gone 16-1 against a +10 line this year. Lone loss was Manning's worst game of his career.
Arizona has gone 15-2 against a +10 line this year. And one of those was the W17 game where they called it quits early on.
I like those odds.
Not going to bother sweating for a 3.5. Hitting the Denver +10/Arizona +10 tease for a standard unit and I'm going to sit back and watch what should be two great football games.
I know teasers are frowned upon by the pseudo wiseguys on this website but when used in the right situations they are very lucrative. Teasing good teams up is one of those situations.
Of the 11 teams that won 10+ games this season you would have gone 177-10-3 playing them on a hypothetical +10 line this season (including playoffs). Good teams rarely get blown out.
I know teasers are frowned upon by the pseudo wiseguys on this website but when used in the right situations they are very lucrative. Teasing good teams up is one of those situations.
Of the 11 teams that won 10+ games this season you would have gone 177-10-3 playing them on a hypothetical +10 line this season (including playoffs). Good teams rarely get blown out.
I know teasers are frowned upon by the pseudo wiseguys on this website but when used in the right situations they are very lucrative. Teasing good teams up is one of those situations.
Of the 11 teams that won 10+ games this season you would have gone 177-10-3 playing them on a hypothetical +10 line this season (including playoffs). Good teams rarely get blown out.
Perhaps more useful is those 11 teams went 60-9-3 against the other 10+ win teams on a hypothetical +10.
Now clearly you wouldn't have been able to tease all those teams to +10 every game. But I believe it's strong evidence that these types of teams just don't get slapped around. I think the tease is the best play this weekend.
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
I know teasers are frowned upon by the pseudo wiseguys on this website but when used in the right situations they are very lucrative. Teasing good teams up is one of those situations.
Of the 11 teams that won 10+ games this season you would have gone 177-10-3 playing them on a hypothetical +10 line this season (including playoffs). Good teams rarely get blown out.
Perhaps more useful is those 11 teams went 60-9-3 against the other 10+ win teams on a hypothetical +10.
Now clearly you wouldn't have been able to tease all those teams to +10 every game. But I believe it's strong evidence that these types of teams just don't get slapped around. I think the tease is the best play this weekend.
I know teasers are frowned upon by the pseudo wiseguys on this website but when used in the right situations they are very lucrative. Teasing good teams up is one of those situations.Of the 11 teams that won 10+ games this season you would have gone 177-10-3 playing them on a hypothetical +10 line this season (including playoffs). Good teams rarely get blown out.
Big proponent of teasers in general (on the right numbers of course where the math supports them), but something is telling me not to this week. I'm pretty sure one of these games ends in a double digit victory, but hopefully not.
Nice to see you still posting, always respect your opinion. I'm only a lurker on Covers these days.
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
I know teasers are frowned upon by the pseudo wiseguys on this website but when used in the right situations they are very lucrative. Teasing good teams up is one of those situations.Of the 11 teams that won 10+ games this season you would have gone 177-10-3 playing them on a hypothetical +10 line this season (including playoffs). Good teams rarely get blown out.
Big proponent of teasers in general (on the right numbers of course where the math supports them), but something is telling me not to this week. I'm pretty sure one of these games ends in a double digit victory, but hopefully not.
Nice to see you still posting, always respect your opinion. I'm only a lurker on Covers these days.
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