Now my thoughts on the games. First off, my book is playing the tinker game as they do in their attempt to sucker high juice from as many people as they can. I knew it was coming and at the least, I can say BetOnline is FAIR with their lines. I've yet to like a team -3 and ever been pinned in a -3 -125 line ever. They will tinker all week, but at some point(and these games seem no different), that -125 will come down. Or it will go to -3.5 +110.
Knowing that, I put in a pair of half unit plays.
- Denver +3 +100. Arizona +3 +100. In the case those lines pop to +3.5, I will put the other half unit on those. But in the case that 3 line sticks, and the juice goes to -110(which they are right now), I at least have 1/2 a unit at a better price. So no matter what, I'm rolling with Denver and Zona. For now 1/2 unit on both with no juice. Hopefully get the hook.
Okay Denver. First off, this line is off. I understand why it's off. Something like 55 million television sets watched Denver look awful on Sunday. 45 million TV sets saw Brady put on a clinic in looking impressive. I get why the line is what it is, even though IMO, Denver -1 or Denver -2.5 is what it really should be. So all the value lays on Denver +3 or if your book gave you 3.5.
I'm seeing a lot of talking heads talking about Denver's defense is impressive and all, but "boy, they had a tendency to really blow some coverages this weekend and give up 4-5 HUGE plays. And if Pitt could exploit the defense, you know NE will." I disagree with that 100%.
1, one of the big plays. I believe Ben was in the pocket. Fearless. Holding the ball. Sliding left and right with pressure everywhere. At one point, his 326 pound lineman was bull rushed and LAUNCHED into Big Ben. Any other QB in this league is sacked and squashed. Ben somehow absorbed that shot, and on top of the time he already had, rolled out of it buying more time, and found a guy wide open in the flat and it was a 40-50 yard catch and run. Another play was after run run running right, the defense over-persued, and Bryant hit them with a PERFECT reverse for another 45 yards. Bryant who runs a 4.27.
New England and Tom Brady does not run an offense to pull off either of these plays. Tom is underrated how he can hang in the pocket and gingerly step in or around pressure, but he's not in an offense like Pitt where Ben can really hang in there for 5-6 seconds and find a blown coverage opportunity like he did a few times last week. Brady gets the ball and its OUT. They also don't run the ball enough to set up a reverse like Pitt did with Bryant did, and if they did....sure Edelman is crafty with his legs. But he's not running at 4.27 and breaking 50 yard runs. So I don't agree with the media perception that Denver is ripe to blow plays like that every week. If NE is gonna move the ball, it's gonna be quick precise passes, and getting Gronk in favorable spots for the occasional 20-30 yard seam or slant to him.
Also, I keep seeing that because Brady gets it out so quickly, it's impossible to sack him like KC learned. KC doesn't have close to the pass rush Denver can generate, and for a guy who can't be sacked, I believe I read that you have to go back to 2002 to find a year Brady was sacked more than 2015. So if Denver's pass D which is incredible can cover Brady's first couple quick reads, he's ripe to get eaten up by the Denver pass rush. He's not Russell or Cam or even Ben. He will go down 3-4 times over the course of the game. Pats have been one dimensional A LOT this season as well. We all know that like in the playoff game two years ago against Indy....that if the matchups are there like with Indy, they can and will run up a storm.....they aren't running on Denver IMO.
On the other side, it won't be pretty. Denver gonna struggle to run. Unless the pass game comes out looking like 2013 and opens up a run game, I don't see them running, and manning has generally been awful, but it's still manning. His curse in the past IMO is come big game....he's too smart for his own good at the line and he became the king of the audible 2 yard pass. Just run the offense, don't throw 3 picks, and I think that's enough for Denver to pull this game off at home catching points.
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