Posted:
#76
Glad I got it at 245 with this downward movement
WOW, total of 244 for Golden St. and Phoenix tomorrow?
Posted:
#78
Jamieace -- how can it be a no brainer when of the three times they've played so far this year, only one of the totals went over? What about Lopez's insertion into the starting line-up and the fact that they are at 12 overs and 17 unders since that date?
I think everyone automatically assumes this will be a 130-120 type of game when the two of the three prior games they played finished at 112-103 and 123-101. That is a mistake, IMO.
The funny thing is that the total shots taken were 179 (under), 172 (over), and 169 (under). Basically if either team shoots under 50%, this thing should go under comfortably.
I think everyone automatically assumes this will be a 130-120 type of game when the two of the three prior games they played finished at 112-103 and 123-101. That is a mistake, IMO.
The funny thing is that the total shots taken were 179 (under), 172 (over), and 169 (under). Basically if either team shoots under 50%, this thing should go under comfortably.
Posted:
#80
Fuck the Public.... Don't make this into Brain Surgery Fellas...Granted these 2 teams can shoot the lights out and the total could very well be 260 or so...BUT...245 is a WHOLE LOTTA PTS..... This line has been moving all around all day long... now its at its lowest point I beleive (243.5)...I missed it at 245.5 and locked in at 244.5...
THIS GAME IS UNDER....ALL... DAY... LONG!!!
BOOK IT!!! 
Posted:
#81
Kapono,...you keep saying they have met 3 times this year....
and it's 1-2 ( O/U) ....
and just where were those 2 Under games played ?
where was the Over game played ?
last year.....they met 4 times......and it was 2-2 ( O/U) as well.....both games in PHO went under,...the games @ GSW went Over....
i made the same post on last years game..and had people telling me how PHO's defense was better and the points wouldn't flow....
that was the 284 pt game...........
all game long in threads...UNDER backers were bitching , crying and moaning about the projected total never dropping below 280 for the 1st 3 Q's......and why there was no defense..........
do you expect a tight defensive struggle ?
if you want this kind of hopeless feeling...blast away on the < 243 and hope it's an ugly slow game.......GSW home game ???
sure..that POR @ GSW game where GSW got 9 in the 4th Q could happen again.....but you're gonna need something special to happen for the under to come in....
i know my logic on this game will eventually be wrong...and they will one day put up a lousy 40% shooting night and go under by 30 - 40 pts and give < backers a glorious win...............has to happen eventually....
but this game ( PHO @ GSW .....not GSW @ PHO ) has given me 3 of my favourite over wins in my NBA betting career.........
and what's interesting....none of them came down to the last 2 mins...
they all went over with 3 - 6 mins to spare.....
and those of you who think B2B means a slower game.....
when a team is B2B, defense is the 1st thing that suffers..........
and it's 1-2 ( O/U) ....
and just where were those 2 Under games played ?
where was the Over game played ?
last year.....they met 4 times......and it was 2-2 ( O/U) as well.....both games in PHO went under,...the games @ GSW went Over....
i made the same post on last years game..and had people telling me how PHO's defense was better and the points wouldn't flow....
that was the 284 pt game...........
all game long in threads...UNDER backers were bitching , crying and moaning about the projected total never dropping below 280 for the 1st 3 Q's......and why there was no defense..........
do you expect a tight defensive struggle ?
if you want this kind of hopeless feeling...blast away on the < 243 and hope it's an ugly slow game.......GSW home game ???
sure..that POR @ GSW game where GSW got 9 in the 4th Q could happen again.....but you're gonna need something special to happen for the under to come in....
i know my logic on this game will eventually be wrong...and they will one day put up a lousy 40% shooting night and go under by 30 - 40 pts and give < backers a glorious win...............has to happen eventually....
but this game ( PHO @ GSW .....not GSW @ PHO ) has given me 3 of my favourite over wins in my NBA betting career.........
and what's interesting....none of them came down to the last 2 mins...
they all went over with 3 - 6 mins to spare.....
and those of you who think B2B means a slower game.....
when a team is B2B, defense is the 1st thing that suffers..........
Posted:
#82
I believe both unders were in Phoenix and the one over was in GSW -- do you think that somehow drastically changes the analysis?
I don't expect a "tight defensive struggle", but I see a 125-113 type of game, which is an UNDER based on the line I got (245). Even one quarter of sub-par shooting from either team will make this a very difficult over to hit. They will need to burn the nets up for the vast majority of the entire game to hit this number.
Your claim about defense being the first thing to go in a B2B is not accurate, in my opinion. It seems that tired legs often lead to short jumpers and slower paced games as a whole.
Either way, I appreciate the discussion and we'll see which way the ball bounces tonight, should be a fun game to watch regardless of the outcome.
I don't expect a "tight defensive struggle", but I see a 125-113 type of game, which is an UNDER based on the line I got (245). Even one quarter of sub-par shooting from either team will make this a very difficult over to hit. They will need to burn the nets up for the vast majority of the entire game to hit this number.
Your claim about defense being the first thing to go in a B2B is not accurate, in my opinion. It seems that tired legs often lead to short jumpers and slower paced games as a whole.
Either way, I appreciate the discussion and we'll see which way the ball bounces tonight, should be a fun game to watch regardless of the outcome.
Posted:
#83
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:
I believe both unders were in Phoenix and the one over was in GSW -- do you think that somehow drastically changes the analysis?
I don't expect a "tight defensive struggle", but I see a 125-113 type of game, which is an UNDER based on the line I got (245). Even one quarter of sub-par shooting from either team will make this a very difficult over to hit. They will need to burn the nets up for the vast majority of the entire game to hit this number.
Your claim about defense being the first thing to go in a B2B is not accurate, in my opinion. It seems that tired legs often lead to short jumpers and slower paced games as a whole.
Either way, I appreciate the discussion and we'll see which way the ball bounces tonight, should be a fun game to watch regardless of the outcome.
I believe both unders were in Phoenix and the one over was in GSW -- do you think that somehow drastically changes the analysis?
I don't expect a "tight defensive struggle", but I see a 125-113 type of game, which is an UNDER based on the line I got (245). Even one quarter of sub-par shooting from either team will make this a very difficult over to hit. They will need to burn the nets up for the vast majority of the entire game to hit this number.
Your claim about defense being the first thing to go in a B2B is not accurate, in my opinion. It seems that tired legs often lead to short jumpers and slower paced games as a whole.
Either way, I appreciate the discussion and we'll see which way the ball bounces tonight, should be a fun game to watch regardless of the outcome.
you are well on your way to talking me into an UNDER 
Posted:
#84
More data to analyze:
Kaplon makes a valid point.
| Mar | Away FG | Reb | |||||
| 01/23/10 | PHO 112 - GS 103 | GS 11.5 | U 233 | 2.5 | 37/85 | 41/94 | 51-44 |
| 12/26/09 | GS 132 - PHO 127 | GS 3 | O 232 | 8.0 | 48/84 | 47/88 | 40-36 |
| 10/30/09 | PHO 123 - GS 101 | PHO -5.5 | U 233 | 16.5 | 45/84 | 36/85 | 47-38 |
| 04/15/09 | PHO 117 - GS 113 | GS 9.5 | U 239 | 5.5 | 40/94 | 43/93 | 48-51 |
| 03/15/09 | GS 130 - PHO 154 | PHO 1.5 | O 244 | 25.5 | 44/91 | 59/95 | 35-44 |
| 02/06/09 | PHO 115 - GS 105 | Push -10 | U 230 | 25.5 | 45/90 | 39/86 | 44-43 |
| 02/04/09 | GS 124 - PHO 112 | GS 4 | O 227.5 | 16.0 | 47/90 | 41/90 | 40-46 |
| 04/14/08 | PHO 122 - GS 116 | PHO -4.5 | O 230.5 | 1.5 | 43/82 | 46/104 | 52-43 |
| 03/13/08 | PHO 123 - GS 115 | PHO -7.5 | O 237 | 0.5 | 45/82 | 43/105 | 46-46 |
| 02/13/08 | GS 120 - PHO 118 | PHO 3.0 | O 234.5 | 1.0 | 52/96 | 45/87 | 34-49 |
Kaplon makes a valid point.
Posted:
#85
I'm not trying to talk anyone into any play, just presenting my thought process and ideas. I love the discussion though.
Out of those 10 previous games that abzolute was kind enough to post in this thread, the two teams only went over this total twice -- 3/15/09 and 12/16/09.
I'll take my money on the 80% historical average and not the 20% one. If tonight ends up being one of those 20% of the times, then so be it, but to me, sports betting is about making informed decisions with the best information you can have.
Out of those 10 previous games that abzolute was kind enough to post in this thread, the two teams only went over this total twice -- 3/15/09 and 12/16/09.
I'll take my money on the 80% historical average and not the 20% one. If tonight ends up being one of those 20% of the times, then so be it, but to me, sports betting is about making informed decisions with the best information you can have.
Posted:
#87
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:
I'm not trying to talk anyone into any play, just presenting my thought process and ideas. I love the discussion though.
Out of those 10 previous games that abzolute was kind enough to post in this thread, the two teams only went over this total twice -- 3/15/09 and 12/16/09.
I'll take my money on the 80% historical average and not the 20% one. If tonight ends up being one of those 20% of the times, then so be it, but to me, sports betting is about making informed decisions with the best information you can have.
I'm not trying to talk anyone into any play, just presenting my thought process and ideas. I love the discussion though.
Out of those 10 previous games that abzolute was kind enough to post in this thread, the two teams only went over this total twice -- 3/15/09 and 12/16/09.
I'll take my money on the 80% historical average and not the 20% one. If tonight ends up being one of those 20% of the times, then so be it, but to me, sports betting is about making informed decisions with the best information you can have.
no man, I definately hear you.........This won't be a large play anyway, just an action junkie play 
, probably small.....But I agree, Suns are alot different from last year.......Im leaning UNDER again
Posted:
#88
Bruuuuuce....
you've just committed the most heinous gambling crime one can commit...
you stated you were playing the OVER...and after a 4 page thread...you have swapped and gone for the UNDER......
that means the OVER is almost guaranteed now......because the gambling gods have you in their grasp...
the game sails over.....you'll be left sitting at home saying
"man,..my gut said over...i shouldn't have swapped..."
when does swapping late ever equal good news Bruuuuce ?
just because the total is set at 243.....doesn't mean those pts won't evaporate quickly ....
i've read a few messages saying "a few scoring droughts or a 40 - 50 pt Q sends this game way under"
it's like people think that there is a cap on 65 pts max per Q....
what about if there's OT ?
those 2 factors are the over backers insurance.....
what if there are 2 x 70pts + Q's ?...... = 140 pts....
those of you on the Under still feel good about having 104 - 105 pts to spare on those other 2 Q's ...
2 x 70 , means 2 x 52 pt Q' s ( or less ) in those other Q's for the under....
i'm not saying the OVER is a certainty by any stretch...
i just know when the books set a line that is very tempting..and give a lot of pts ...UNDER backers sometimes start foaming and frothing at the mouth.....
but those pts in hand can evaporate very very quickly ....
why would the books shoot up the total spread for PHO from 207.5 ( vs POR) to today's 243.5 ? ....up 36 pts ?
you think the books shoot the line up 36 pts from the day before ( when the game went UNDER by a long way with a 207 total spread) for no good reason......are the books that stupid ?
you've just committed the most heinous gambling crime one can commit...
you stated you were playing the OVER...and after a 4 page thread...you have swapped and gone for the UNDER......
that means the OVER is almost guaranteed now......because the gambling gods have you in their grasp...
the game sails over.....you'll be left sitting at home saying
"man,..my gut said over...i shouldn't have swapped..."
when does swapping late ever equal good news Bruuuuce ?
just because the total is set at 243.....doesn't mean those pts won't evaporate quickly ....
i've read a few messages saying "a few scoring droughts or a 40 - 50 pt Q sends this game way under"
it's like people think that there is a cap on 65 pts max per Q....
what about if there's OT ?
those 2 factors are the over backers insurance.....
what if there are 2 x 70pts + Q's ?...... = 140 pts....
those of you on the Under still feel good about having 104 - 105 pts to spare on those other 2 Q's ...
2 x 70 , means 2 x 52 pt Q' s ( or less ) in those other Q's for the under....
i'm not saying the OVER is a certainty by any stretch...
i just know when the books set a line that is very tempting..and give a lot of pts ...UNDER backers sometimes start foaming and frothing at the mouth.....
but those pts in hand can evaporate very very quickly ....
why would the books shoot up the total spread for PHO from 207.5 ( vs POR) to today's 243.5 ? ....up 36 pts ?
you think the books shoot the line up 36 pts from the day before ( when the game went UNDER by a long way with a 207 total spread) for no good reason......are the books that stupid ?
Posted:
#94
Golden State is a streaky as team. There are better games to play so if you gonna play this game play small units. I'm about to head out the door and watch the game. It's my home team so I'm playing really small to keep it exciting for me.
PHX will be tired from last night
Picking Over!
PHX will be tired from last night
Picking Over!
| NBA [619] TOTAL o243-105 (PHOENIX vrs GOLDEN STATE) | 53.00 USD / 50.00 USD | 39486047 | ||
| Straight | Mar 22 | NBA [620] GOLDEN STATE +5-105 | 105.00 USD / 100.00 USD | 39486048 |
| Straight | Mar 22 | NBA [3620] 1Q GOLDEN STATE +1½-110 | 55.00 USD / 50.00 USD | 39486049 |
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