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WOW, total of 244 for Golden St. and Phoenix tomorrow?

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Posts: 122

kaponofor3

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 35430

Posted: Mar. 22, 2010 - 1:03 PM ET #51

Is no one concerned that of the three games these teams have played this year, only one went over this total?

Previous games hit 215 (at PHO on 1/23), 259 (at GSW on 12/26), and 224 (at PHO on 10/30). Phoenix has shown an increased focus on defense with the insertion of Lopez into the starting lineup and they are coming off a back to back having to travel from home.

smokin376

Rookie

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 724

Posted: Mar. 22, 2010 - 1:05 PM ET #52

Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

Is no one concerned that of the three games these teams have played this year, only one went over this total?

Previous games hit 215 (at PHO on 1/23), 259 (at GSW on 12/26), and 224 (at PHO on 10/30). Phoenix has shown an increased focus on defense with the insertion of Lopez into the starting lineup and they are coming off a back to back having to travel from home.

DaKid

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2002

Posts: 397

Posted: Mar. 22, 2010 - 1:05 PM ET #53

Quote Originally Posted by XhuegoX:

if you like the over play 1H over.

Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 105 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (>=82 shots/game), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO) vs. a good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO) after 42+ games.
(28-7 since 1996.) (80%, +20.3 units. Rating = 3*)

Texasfan

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 1641

Posted: Mar. 22, 2010 - 1:07 PM ET #54

246.5 now.

Texasfan

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 1641

Posted: Mar. 22, 2010 - 1:09 PM ET #55

Also, remember GS only scored 9 in 4th against Portland. They could always get tired.

kaponofor3

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 35430

Posted: Mar. 22, 2010 - 1:20 PM ET #56

This is interesting, I wonder how high this line could get. Could we see 250 by game time?

dj_destroyer

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 3144

Posted: Mar. 22, 2010 - 1:43 PM ET #57

Quote Originally Posted by smokin376:

Definitely taking the under this game. They are trying to make it seem like the OVER is the play and there will be a nonstop scoring spree and it will not happen like that. Phoenix has been doing a lot better on the defensive side of the ball and they have also slowed down on scoring themselves. I know it was only last nights game, but a total of what? 180? when the hell do you ever see Phoenix hold an opponent to 87 pts? never?...how often do you see them score 93? never....They have been making unders left and right since the all star break....so after last nights game, your gonna try and tell me that there gonna score 64 more points the day after. I dont see it happening..I dont think so...I say pound the under harder than a fat vagina....

Teams playing below or above their averages are expected to return (barring any drastic change that would account for the higher or lower averages [which I don't think Lopez is])... so I have a good feeling PHX wants to get their stats back up just as much as their over backers... so play the OVER and don't pound anything.

Mikado

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 10129

Posted: Mar. 22, 2010 - 1:54 PM ET #58

If you remember the last time the Suns played the Warriors at Oracle Arena in March - then you would agree with me that the total should be at least 260 - with Suns playing this same situation again B2B, it warrants the high total.

Seymour24

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2009

Posts: 3436

Posted: Mar. 22, 2010 - 1:58 PM ET #59

Vegas knows this is going to be out of control and can't set the line high enough...

I know this isn't hockey but when they set a high total of 6.5 in hockey (basically the highest they set), it's gone over 14 out of 15.

Vegas knows this is going way over and want to sucker people to the under

Should be fun to watch and I like the fact the Suns shot horribly yesterday for the over tonite.

Bruuuuce78

Captain

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 5365

Posted: Mar. 22, 2010 - 2:08 PM ET #60

Yeah, Phoenix also plays a little defense this year

kaponofor3

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 35430

Posted: Mar. 22, 2010 - 2:12 PM ET #61

BUT Mikado, that game was played back in December when the Suns were still starting Frye. The insertion of Lopez into the starting line-up on January 18 has resulted in 12 overs and 17 unders for PHO since the change.

kaponofor3

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 35430

Posted: Mar. 22, 2010 - 2:19 PM ET #62

For anyone looking at the 1H total, Bookmaker has it at 124. The totals for the 1H in previous games were 115, 141, and 113.

fiire

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 167

Posted: Mar. 22, 2010 - 2:25 PM ET #63

Why are you morons constantly thinking Vegas is trying to trick anyone into backing anything.
They aren't morons they don't gamble, the bookies get so much action that they just have to move the money against the action that's all they have to do, they don't trick they don't gamble, just set a line they feel gets the best action on both sides.

fiire

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 167

Posted: Mar. 22, 2010 - 2:27 PM ET #64

And most importantly they don't care abolut the result, nor do they need a specific result to win.
They win on each game, regardless.

Bruuuuce78

Captain

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 5365

Posted: Mar. 22, 2010 - 2:34 PM ET #65

Quote Originally Posted by fiire:

And most importantly they don't care abolut the result, nor do they need a specific result to win.
They win on each game, regardless.

no, they don't win on each game.........that is false

dj_destroyer

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 3144

Posted: Mar. 22, 2010 - 2:47 PM ET #66

Agreed. A book will often let the action get out of hand on one side... especially if it's late public money.

Mikado

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 10129

Posted: Mar. 22, 2010 - 2:50 PM ET #67

Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

BUT Mikado, that game was played back in December when the Suns were still starting Frye. The insertion of Lopez into the starting line-up on January 18 has resulted in 12 overs and 17 unders for PHO since the change.

I'm talking last year in MARCH at ORACLE!!!

154-130?!?! You don't remember!?!

This is one of those game where EXPERIENCE will win you the and thinking like a rookie or hobby handicapper and taking the UNDER based solely on the number will get you

very badly.

Be careful is all I'm saying. The people who have been burned before in this situation know what's up now when GSW and PHX play at Oracle at the end of the regular season.

gunstar

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2008

Posts: 69

Posted: Mar. 22, 2010 - 2:55 PM ET #68

I don't care about any stats from years past. The public is obviously pounding this game over. I am with smokin 376. Phoenix played a very physical game last night with Portland. I am taking Phoenix team total under 126.5. I don't see them pushing the tempo with the Warriors. They may score 280 who knows, but I look this situation for the under. Hey Smokin, maybe we can cash that under and pound that fat vagina.

kaponofor3

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 35430

Posted: Mar. 22, 2010 - 3:01 PM ET #69

Mikado -- I don't understand how you can rely on stats/games from last year when anyone who has watched the Suns over the last month knows that their style of play has changed a little bit. Gone is the full tempo run and gun all the time type of play. Placing Lopez in the line-up was done solely for defensive reasons and since they put him in, they are at 12 overs and 17 unders. That has to be more relevant to this game then what happened last year. I mean, you are also ignoring the other two games they played this year that went way under this projected total?

kaponofor3

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 35430

Posted: Mar. 22, 2010 - 3:02 PM ET #70

Mikado -- also, a play based on EXPERIENCE of last March's game in Oracle would have led an experienced capper such as yourself to 1 win and 2 losses so far based on this number.

VegasGourmet

Rookie

Joined: Mar, 2010

Posts: 813

Posted: Mar. 22, 2010 - 3:04 PM ET #71

We have a "system" here with the NBA....Old-timers have been using this for years.....

FOLLOW THE LINESMAKERS.......

Take the OVER with the highest total send-out and take the UNDER with the lowest total send-out

Take a 2-team parlay, hit your plays for over 50% and you have a winning season.

Boring..........no thought to it whatsoever....but PROFITABLE

Davidscott40

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2009

Posts: 1583

Posted: Mar. 22, 2010 - 4:26 PM ET #72

Quote Originally Posted by VegasGourmet:

We have a "system" here with the NBA....Old-timers have been using this for years.....

FOLLOW THE LINESMAKERS.......

Take the OVER with the highest total send-out and take the UNDER with the lowest total send-out

Take a 2-team parlay, hit your plays for over 50% and you have a winning season.

Boring..........no thought to it whatsoever....but PROFITABLE

I'm curious if there is reliable data to what that parlay "REALLY" hits. I guess simply looking at TOTALS archives this year in NBA would be easy enough to see....
FASCINATING STUFF, I'll take a look and see what that parlay % has hit for this year (2 team parlay)..