PACERS THREAD FROM A LOCAL

Well, I blew this one pretty bad.  Sorry guys.  Saw the interviews after the game...Pacers admitted they were tired from last nights game, and it definitely showed.  The beginning part of the third quarter was the key to the game.  Philly was playing awful defense and looked they were ready to throw in the towel, and the Pacers could've burried them, but they missed open shot after open shot.  You could just see Philly get confident and start playing faster and more competitive.

After watching them play in person, this second unit is really vulnerable to giving up points to faster teams.  Might want to look at some of these matchups, and if there is a back to back night or a lesser quality team and the second unit may play a lot of minutes, playing the TT overs might be the smart play.  Copeland is worse in person on defense than he is on TV.  Play after play, he got blown buy, gave up easy baskets, fouled a guy...he's a disaster.  Seriously, if he keeps it up he won't see the floor again.  Little disappointed by Scola tonight.  He's got better skills than he showed tonight.

Looking more and more like the recent trend is to take Pacers opponent 1st half +the points.  No clue what is up with the slow starts, but there's no arguing the numbers.  Team will get some rest, and come back Monday against Minnesota.  If Minn is getting points in the first half, I'll be on that.  I'll also see what the TT is for the Twolves, and it may be a good spot for the over.  I think the TWolves match up good against the Pacers. 

They try to go to Hibert in the 1st qtr. I think this is bad cuz hibert plays basketball like a girl.

Fascinating and hard hitting analysis. 

Hibbert averages 4.2 blocks per game.  Highest in the league.  Next highest is Lopez at 2.8. 

His stats average a game are:  11 pts, 9 reb, 4 blocks.

Tonight he went for 27 pts, 13 reb, and 6 blocks.  Shot over 50% from the field, and 13-16 from the FT line.

If Hibbert plays like a girl...this girl that you speak of is a big, bad b*tch.  And 30 teams would like to have this big, bad b*tch starting for them.  Pacers have some holes in their team, but Hibbert isn't one of them.

Wow he had a good game against a really small team, they are small with Hays and he was out. I don't know about the 2nd half as I had 1st half 76ers +8.5 but I was so happy when they would go to him and all the times he got stripped in 1st half. 

Right now I'm on the TWolves +3.5 1h, and also 1h under 98.5.

TWolves give up a ton of points, and they have an awful road record.  They're 2-5 with their 2 wins against the Knicks and Lakers.  However, I think their roster matches up pretty good against the Pacers.  Love always gets his points and rebounds, and Rubio will be a nightmare for this roster to guard.  If they can limit the rest of the roster they should win, but 7 points is a lot.  With the TWolves poor road record, and roster matchups I don't have an opinion on the spread.  Could be a close game or a blowout...I wouldn't be surprised by either. 

Great way to rebound after my horrendous picks on the Bulls game.  Went 2-0 and the 1h spread came down to missed FT's by Paul George, but it's a profitable night.

Very odd half.  Pacers went nuts in the first quarter and it looked like George Hill and Paul George couldn't miss, but they came back to earth.  Game really got thrown off because Rubio got 2 fouls 5 minutes in and barely played the 1q.  He came back in the 2q and the TWolves looked much better.  Kevin Love is already tired.  He needed a break and Adelman wouldn't take him out for several more minutes.  I think he wears down even more in the 2h.  That's what these Pacers bigs can do to teams.  Beat up the front lines of teams with Hibbert, West, Scola and Mahinmi.

I can't find much value in the 2h lines though.  Normally I like the Pacers in the 2h, but with Rubio being fresh for the 2h I can see the TWolves keeping it close.  Maybe some value in the 2h under, but I won't be on anything.

GL if you find something to play. 

Pacers at Bobcats tonight

I don't know a ton about the Bobcats rotation, but their results haven't been very good this year.  Jefferson is getting back, but he's not 100% healthy...not good against this Pacers team.

Kemba Walker should have a nice game.  His speed is the kind of speed that can get around the perimeter defense of the Pacers...I just don't know if he has enough around him to keep the game close.

I'm going to take the 1h under 90.5.  I'm going to lay off the 1h spread this game.  Right now it's Bobcats +4, and the Pacers haven't been good in the first halves, but this is a physical mismatch game.  The Pacers have dominated 2h's this year, and maybe that's where they take control tonight.

The line is down to -7.5, and I'm going to (in a very rare move) take the Pacers -7.5. The Bobcats have won against the following teams:  Bucks, Nets, Cavs, Celtics, Raptors, Knicks.  Not exactly a group of great teams.  Last game they lost at home by 10 to the Celtics.  Pacers have superior talent, didn't play last night, and even though they haven't blown teams out on the road, I think the difference in talent, and Jefferson's health is going to be too much for the Bobcats.

The only TT value I see is Pacers 1h under 47.  I'll put a little on that.

I'll be interested to see what the situation is at halftime. Could be a good situation for a 2h play.

Any play for 2nd half?

Went 2-0 1h. I'm going to lay off 2h lines to ensure a profitable night. Still think pacers cover spread. If you're going to make a play I think the play is pacers -3, but that's just a hunch. If you followed 1h plays I recommend staying put. But I'm not on anything solid 2h. Sorry for the non-play...I know it's not exciting. GL if you're in play 2h.

Hibbert having a great game!! Love this bricks he's throwing up while being guarded by a 6 ' 6 guy. But I mean it's the bobcats they have great defensive centers right?

Great thread.  Your basketball and pacers knowledge is very strong.  

Tigers

Thank you very much for the compliment.  I can't believe Walker didn't hit your prop over.  He's got the skill set to score lots of points against the Pacers...just had a bad night.  That was a great bet that just didn't go your way.  Take that bet every night of the season and I think you hit that 65% of the time.  Pacers are very vulnerable to the fast guards in this league. 

Great night for us...went 3-0.  Should've had more guts and laid the Pacers 2h at -3...oh well, it happens.  

Pacers have a huge west coast swing coming up.  They play the Wizards at home, and then their schedule goes like this:  All Away Games...Clippers, Blazers, Jazz, Spurs, Thunder.

This schedule is a big thing to look at for bettors.  Not because of the results of the game, but to see how the Pacers hardcore defense matches up against these teams.  Should give everyone an idea of how defense matches up against offense in 2013-2014. 

I'll be very interested to see how the books set these lines.  My first inclination is to say that teams like the Clippers, Blazers, and Jazz won't adjust well...teams like the Spurs and Thunder with elite veteran talent and coaching will know what to expect and know how to exploit the Pacers.  Using Tony Parker and Russell Westbrook will be key to those teams.

Wizards have been playing well as of late.  Going to play Wizards +6 1h.  Don't see the 1h total yet, but I'll see what the number is and post later.

On it also Alan GL 

Thanks Prodigy

1h total is at 93...going to take it as well. 

ALANG

My plays as of now are 1h under 93 , and Wizards +6 1h.

I don't have a strong opinion on either game spread or total to be honest.  10.5 is a lot of points.  Pacers are more concerned with just winning as opposed to beating teams really bad.  Wizards have won 6 of 7...even though they aren't great opponents, that's a good indication they are playing good.  John Wall is the kind of player that gives the Pacers problems because we don't have a lot of speed at the perimeter.  The last 3 games the Wizards have gotten good games out of Wall, Nene, and Gortat.  I think the Wizards can keep this one close.  187 is about where I would set the line on the total...no opinion there.  GL with whatever you decide

Going to take a little bit on Wizards TT under 88.5

Nene out tonight last minute.  Big Loss for Wizards

Went 1-1 in 1h...lost the spread by one point.  That sucks.

Wizards have absolutely no presence inside.  They are shooting jump shots and threes everytime down the floor.  They've been streaky, but more cold than not.

This second half is a little tough to predict, but I'm going to put a little on Pacers -3.5.  They've done a much better job on Wall than I thought they would.  Wizards are going to keep shooting jump shots, and I don't think there's any reason to believe they are going to start making all of them.  Pacers should keep pounding it inside and continue getting good looks.  Wizards could get pretty frustrated if it continues in the third.

Another nice night going 3-1

Wizards were awful tonight.  They have a couple pieces, but the Pacers completely took Wall out of the game.  Really disappointing for him and for Wizards because he has looked good at times this year and this was a chance for him to show it against a good team, and he was terrible.  Good win for the Pacers, and surprisingly easy.

Gonna learn a lot the next few games as the Pacers head west to take on some really good team in the western conference.  I'll be interested to see what the lines are.

Alan, thoughts on Ind/Lob City game? You think CP3 sits this one out to rest his hamstring? 

I just got done looking at some things in this matchup, and here's what I came up with.

Even with Chris Paul, I think the Pacers team is way to physical inside for Deandre and Blake.  I like the perimeter of the Clippers, but I don't buy into their defense.  In the last 8 games they've played, they've lost to the 2 best teams they've played.  Got smoked by OKC, and lost to Memphis at home.  I look at that Memphis game and see that Gasol and Randolph operated at will, and tore them apart.  Again, these Pacers bigs (starters and bench) can overwhelm teams.  The perimeter defense of the Pacers has been playing really solid, and CP3 is questionable.

My play right now is the Pacers -1.5.  I like the matchups for the Pacers, and if CP3 is ruled out, we now have a fantastic number.  If he plays, he's not 100%, and that's going to help Pacers backers.

I'm really surprised about the total posted.  I fully expected the number to be high because I though the linemakers would pay attention to all the points the Clippers score, and it was going to be a perfect spot for an under play.  I was looking for an under play, but 189.5 is an over play, but without knowing fully about Chris Paul, I'm going to make a play which I think is pretty sneaky and take the Pacers over TT 94.5.  If CP3 doesn't play that's a big defensive loss, and if he does play there are other options the Pacers can exploit.  Pacers have scored over that total in 5 of their last 6.

Just because it's become tradition, I have to play the 1h under.

Plays right now...Pacers -1.5, Pacers TT over 94.5, 1h under.

I'll try and keep an eye on chris paul news and keep everyone updated.

Side note:  If the pacers play well on this west coast swing, the last game they play is the Thunder.  If the line is within a few points of a pick em, it will be a big play on the Thunder.  Really like this Thunder team, and they should matchup fantastic against a tired Pacers team.  Fingers crossed the Pacers get wins, and get exhausted because I think that's a great spot for a Thunder play.

Pacers are +1.  Maybe cp3 is a definite starter