PACERS THREAD FROM A LOCAL

Alan I went large on the 1H under 100. Was actually surprised it wasnt 97.5 or 98. The only reason the 1H went over last game was cuz of a stupid foul with 3 secs left from the 3 pt line. Even then it only went to 101.The 1H doesnt sniff 100 imo. GL

I'm with ya Trey...last game I got lucky and got 101.5 as first half line. Do you know what the second half line was? Point total was 98...didn't know if that was good enough for the 2h under...

Thanks for the write-up Alan.  I'm hitting under the 197.5 for the game, think they keep Dallas in the 80's and would be tough to see it going over if that happens.  BOL on the system play.

Thanks for the great write-up and insight....You make excellent, and believable points....I will be on this one too....Good luck!

I like how you said when you saw the line at 9 that made you want to take the underdog.  That's what Vegas wants you to think.  Blowout is on tap for tonight.  GL

Good play...line is already dropping. 

Thank you sir...Hopefully this one works out for us

Thanks man.  This line is really sneaky by the books.  Line was at 9.5...dropped a half point, so I know people thought the same thing I did initially.  Hopefully, the numbers and research pay off.

Great thread  

9 does seem like a big number, then again they beat Denver by 39!

Not sure what the last game 2nd H line was but i believe it was 98 and went over by 1 point. Not sure tho. GL on the next time around. The OH system is a cash cow!

Pacers held the Mavs to 81 pts...30% FG%...26% 3pt%...and the Mavs shot 76% from the free throw line.  Rebounds were a wash.  And not only do the Pacers not cover, but they get blown out at home.

Really frustrating since I felt like I had the proper research, but instead of going with the under, or the Mavs TT under, I went with the spread.  Seems like that has happened a lot lately.  I do the right research, but pick the spread when I should've picked the total, or the other way around.

Sneaky tidbit I didn't realize.  Tonight at the game, Hibbert and Paul George were honored in front of the home crowd.  There is a really long track record of guys being honored in front of their home crowd...and then struggling in the game.  It happens in college a lot more, but in the NFL, and NBA it happens a lot as well.  Tonight both those guys were absolutely terrible.

I listened to the local post game show for a bit, and one of the guys said something very interesting.  He waited in the locker room for a long time after the game to talk to Paul George, and George took a long time in the ice bath, and shower and was the only one left in the locker room when the reporter talked to him.  Paul told him that his life is really different now because his off days are now being spent doing commercials, PR work, and advertising.  That didn't used to be the case.  He's asked current and former superstars how they deal with all the time commitments, and apparently is struggling with all the new things that come with being a superstar.  His offense is really bad right now, and maybe the all-star break will help...slumps happen to everyone, and he's definitely in one now.

Trey, you are right.  The OH system is a cash cow, and at this point this will be my only play on the Pacers for a while.  No need to force things.  The OH system has been going strong all season...hopefully it keeps going well after the all-star break.

Sorry if anyone tailed the Pacers -9 tonight.  Can't remember the last time I had a writeup so spot on that lost. 

Looking forward to your thoughts on ATL@indy Alan. I'm looking to pound the 1H under again. I just hope Indy doesnt score 58 inthe 1H. I know you'll have a great writeup. I know Pacers historically have struggled at ATL but what about at home? I'm hoping for 96 1H but would take 95. Will def double down the 2nd H if it doesnt hit. Also Alan if you can, can you update the OH system for the Pacers if you have any free time? Thanks and GL!

I'll do the writeup a little later Trey, but yes I'll be playing the OH system.

I'm kind of weird on keeping exact records.  I've found that when I'm keeping exact winning records, I struggle.  I end up paying more attention to the record rather than just doing solid updates, and writeups.  So I tend not to keep exact win losses.  Pacers have played 52 games...My best guess is that the Oh system has worked in around 45 games.  It's really been incredible.

As far as my picks, (with the OH system included) I was keeping track for a while and was hitting around 65%, but with the last couple weeks, I'm down around 60%.

Hope everyone followed the MMA guys in the MMA forum Saturday night.  They crushed it. 

Also, if anyone is interested, NASCAR starts this Sunday.  IMHO NASCAR is the best forum on covers.  Lots of us in there turn a profit every year.  Myself, Stats, Clepto, Maxx, GogglesPisano...all good guys to follow.

Formula 1 starts in a month...there's no way I can duplicate my success last year, but Formula 1 is by far my best sport I cap.  I'll have an F1 thread in the NASCAR forum.  If you've never seen an F1 race, you're missing out.  The start of an F1 race is unlike anything in sports IMO. 

Ok...enough pumping other sports.  I'll get going on the writeup for the Pacers Hawks.

Hawks at Pacers

The Hawks fell apart before the break.  Lost 5 straight, and their offense really struggled which was odd because their offense had been a very consistent, efficient group.  Looking back at the last 5 games, it looks like their shooting % just went down, and they continue to struggle with rebounding.  You can't let a team like the Raptors out rebound you.  That's just bad effort.

Pacers sputtered as well losing 2 out of 3.  And those losses were inexcusable.  I know that their opponents are professional basketball players, and everyone's competing, etc...but losing to Orlando, and then at home by 8 to the Mavericks and only scoring 73 points goes in the "inexcusable" category.  Pacers just lost their shooting touch, and Paul George in particular has been struggling.

After seeing a really good local article, I think George is now relieved the All-Star weekend is over.  I think he was really concentrating on performing well in the game and dunk contest, and this was his first year being a well-known name in the weekend.  I think he felt a lot of pressure, and there's a sense of relief it's over. 

The Pacers have a great schedule over the next month to rack up a lot of wins even though they have 4 back to back situations in that span.  Lot of juicy matchups against bad teams.

The game tonight is difficult to cap.  Both teams struggled right before the break, so we're left guessing if both teams come out on fire, or if both struggle, or if one keeps struggling and one comes out hot.  Looking back at the Pacers-Hawks games, they've been low scoring.  Most recent one barely got over 170...the one before barely got over 180. 

The Hawks used a really good balanced attack when they were putting up a lot of points, and I'm honestly not sure what happened when they hit their wall...and sometimes that's just how it works in sports.  They play good for 8 games in a row...then all of sudden get out of rhythm and can't hit shots and start turning the ball over.  I think that's what happened to the Hawks before the break.

I think the Hawks are a little overrated.  Since the beginning of the year, they basically have 2 good wins.  Their record is a little inflated from playing in the terrible East, and it wouldn't surprise me to see them get beat pretty handily tonight.  I'm not going to make a play on the spread, but I lean Pacers -10 even though the Hawks tend to play the Pacers tough.  The Pacers at home off of rest are a pretty brutal team to face.

OH system definitely in effect tonight...I'd jump on it quick as I think the line goes down over the course of the day.

GL today gents...good to be back off the break!

Apologize in advance if this is repetitive but what's the OH system or where could I read about it in this thread? Thanks and nice work Alan.

It's ok...it seems we go over this system every 7-10 days.


The OH system stands for "One Half".  It's a system that says that the Pacers D is good enough to make at least one half go under in a game.  So we take the 1h under for 1 unit...if it wins, we're done.  If it misses, we double up on the 2h under at halftime.  It's been shockingly successful this year.  It's a long term betting strategy, and since I figured out this system earlier this year, it's been our little cash cow. 

WHAT IS THE RECORD FOR THEOH SYSTEM SO FAR

 

alangrrbs - Thank you for bringing this nice trend to light.  I charted the Pacers games for the whole first half of the season and felt I should share my findings with you.

Good stuff, and thanks for tracking that!  I think we've noticed that most of the losses on the OH system are against the high scoring Western Conference teams...Of those 9 losses I think 4 of those were on that West Coast trip earlier in the year for the Pacers.  Thanks again! 

Tough night for the OH system...near miss in 2H with total at 98.5.  Seems you had the side nailed even though it would have been a push...a few late 3's saved any Hawks backers.

Yeah, one of those 3's killed the 2h under as well.  Frustrating because looking at the box score it wasn't a fast paced game...Pacers just shot great from the field, and the Hawks hit 12 3 pointers. 

Pacers at TWolves

TWolves not playing good before the break.  Losing 2 out of 8, and their wins were against the lowly Lakers and Denver.  I've never been a big TWolves fan.  They seem to be a team made for Fantasy Basketball, not real basketball.  I'm looking over their schedule and it seems like they can put up points against fast-paced teams, but if a team plays hard defense, they can really struggle.  I'm looking back at the games they recently played against good defensive teams.  Memphis, NO, Chicago, Toronto.  They scored 90, 91, 86, and 89.  Compare that to teams that play bad defense...Denver, Portland, LA, GS...117, 110, 109, 121, etc.  IMHO they are a team that puts up big meaningless numbers in meaningless games.  They are top 10 in offense, and can rebound, but defense is not good.

Now, there are tons of rumors talking about trades involving Love, trying to get a back-up point guard, etc.  I do think their starting lineup is solid, but this is one of the worse benches in the league, and that's a problem against the Pacers. 

The linemakers obviously think this game is going to be close as the number right now is -2.5, but I think that's a little low.  I know the Pacers are coming off a back to back, but only Lance played more than 30 minutes last night.  David West is a good matchup down low for Love, but Love shoudl be able to get open outside shots...they will need him to hit those if they are to keep it close.

On paper the Pacers have the big advantage on the bench.  Budinger, and Cunningham are ok, and Barea can be good at times, but when the Pacers bring Scola and Granger in, the Pacers will have the edge in talent and size.

I do, however, think the big matchup will be Kevin Martin guarding Lance.  Lance has way more size, and he's as fast as Martin.  I think the Pacers might really utilize that matchup early, and don't forget that Hibbert has a 4 inch height advantage over Turiaf, who has been playing good recently, but in the end...he's still Ronny Turiaf.

I have a hard time siding with underachieving teams, and tonight is no different.  I won't bet it, but I like the team with the deeper bench, better coaching, and late game execution to win.  Lean Pacers -2.5.

Still going to stick with the OH system after a stumble last night.

GL toinght gentlemen!

Wow...total being bet down incredibly fast.