PACERS THREAD FROM A LOCAL

Good catch...according to sportsinjuryalert.com, looks like he's looking at Saturday's game to return.  I thought he was going to be in tonight.    Like the Pacers even more.

Good to have the OH system back on track gentlemen 

Alan - what's your thoughts on the Pacers acquisition of Evan Turner? Seems the media is loving the move for them. I don't see it.

As 6ers fan no longer in the area, I don't get to watch them as much as I'd like, but have never been high on Turner. Seems to me his numbers this year are more a result of volume/opportunity on a bad team than anything else. He Still can't shoot and feel like he's tripping over his own feet when he drives to hoop.

Now they weren't getting much out of Granger anyway, so maybe it is a good risk to take. I just don't think ET was ever worthy of such a high pick and don't see him ever being a difference maker on a good team. I'm surprised of all the praise I've seen the "experts" fine the Pacers on this move.

Here is a good synopsis why the Pacers did this.  It comes from the Indianapolis Star

Turner is reportedly earning $6.6 million this season. Unlike Stephenson, who will be an unrestricted free agent capable of signing a contract with any team this season, Turner would be a restricted free agent. If the Pacers make a qualifying offer of $8.7 million, they can match any contract Turner is offered.

My best guess is that the Pacers think someone will make a ridiculously high offer to Lance at the end of the year...which will probably happen.  There are lots of bad owners, and GM's that will look at what Lance is doing this year and think they can get the same results out of him instead of realizing that Bird, Bogel, David West, etc have tutored him and helped him reach his potential, and that he needs stability to be productive.  Problem is that all the teams that have stability and smart GM's won't make a huge offer to him.  Lance may decide he likes playing on a contender, and knows he can flourish here, or someone like Sacramento, Brooklyn, Charlotte, Washington, etc will make him a crazy offer and he can't refuse the big payday.

I, personally, think one team will make the offer and he will be gone next year into NBA oblivion on a bad team.  I hope he stays, but this move makes me think the Pacers brains think he leaves. 

I've been a big Turner fan of his ability, but I think he just hasn't had the right fit.  Coming off the bench will be weird for him, but Granger clearly wasn't comfortable with it, so I don't see the dropoff from Granger to Turner.  I do like the options the Pacers now have at guard.  They can now utilize Lance, Hill, Turner and Watson at the guard positions based on the other teams matchups.  They can go size, speed, driving ability, or passing.  I like that when they have a good coach like Vogel.  Go back to the Mavericks-Heat finals and look what having options on the bench with a good coach can do.

I do like having a guy like Turner who can drive the ball to the basket a bit more than Granger coming off the bench because most bench guys struggle with defending the drive compared to the starters. 

If I had to rate this trade on a scale of 1-10 I give it a 7.  But I said it before in the post about Bynum, and I'll say it now.  If Bird, and the rest of the Pacers brains think this was a trade worth making...I'm on board.  They clearly see something they like in him, and maybe with Vogel and the other assistants, and the leaders in the locker room, he can improve on his game and be a big piece in a championship run.

Pacers at Bucks

I don't know how much I can cap this game.  Milwaukee is absolutely terrible, and they traded Ridnour and Gary Neal for Ramon Sessions and Jeff.  Apparently, they are getting Brandon Knight back tonight, and this stat will tell you everything you need to know about the Bucks.

Brandon Knight is the leading scorer for the Bucks averaging 16.7 pts a game.

That is so pathetic, I don't know why anyone would ever go to a Bucks game.  They can't score, rebound, pass or play defense...but other than that they are really good.  In 2014 they have a grand total of 3 wins.

People talk about tanking, and certainly the Bucks are looking for a great draft pick, but honestly I think they really are this bad.  Coach Larry Drew is either tanking on purpose or he's one of the worse coaches in the league.  He keeps messing with the minutes, and rotations, but looking at the roster I'm not sure what else he can do.

So where does that leave us for tonights game?  Pacers won by 24 last time they played, and I'm not sure why this game will be much different.  I guess the big caution here is the Pacers may be tinkering with different lineups to see what works with Turner, but my guess is that the Pacers want to get back on track after the loss to Minnesota.  I was surprised the number was only -12...I figured it would be 15 or so.  I think the play is the Pacers -12 or nothing...it's really hard to use reasoning and stats to come to the conclusion the Bucks will cover this.  Unless you have a gut feeling or something.  I do think there's some value in the Bucks TT under 88.5.

I won't be able to watch this game tonight, which is probably a good thing.  I'd hate to say I spent a Saturday night watching the Milwaukee Bucks play.

Yea that line had me confused as well ESP since pacers are coming off a loss.  -12 looks like a trap and scares me.

OH system cashes again tonight.  Pacers started messing with their lineups in the second half...gave most of their bench some minutes.  That's why Bucks covered and we saw all those points late.  Pacers bench can really struggle on D at times.  Tough loss if you were on the Pacers -12.  Game wasn't really that close, and late garbage points got the cover.

Lakers at Pacers

As the saying goes, "these ain't your daddy's Lakers".  This team is in an odd position right now because it looks like Kobe won't be back this year, and the obvious thing to do is tank the season and rebuild.  However, I don't think the Lakers owners are down with that thinking, but they may not have a choice.  This team is losing a lot even without openly tanking.

It's the classic case of a team without a specific identity.  They have Gasol at center...a guy with great hands, good shooting touch, and great passing.  Then they sub him out for a clunky, bang around guy.  They have a ton of guys that play the same style, but nobody really sticks out game to game that they can lean on.  Injuries have hurt them, but Nick Young being back faster than expected will help.  I'm not sure how Dantoni will be using newly acquired Marshon Brooks and Kent Bazemore, but they are definitely getting minutes and contributing. 

Side Note:  This is the third team Marshon Brooks has played for this season.  What a crazy life NBA players can lead sometimes.

It's really tough to find trends with this team.  Some games they get blown out (Houston, Utah, Philly)...some games they stay close (Brooklyn, Boston, OKC).  Some games have gone over, but not enough to make a trend.  It's just a frustrating team to watch right now because there isn't any direction right now, and they seem to be stuck in limbo.  Looking at the last 3 games, it looks like they are really struggling guarding the SG, and SF positions.  I guess that's what happens when you have guys like Wesley Johnson, Kendall Marshall and Jordan Farmar playing defense.  Also, the Lakers are struggling with rebounding.  Even when they beat the Celtics they got outrebounded by 1.  Needless to say, rebounding will be tough tonight against the Pacers.

As far as the Pacers, it looks like they will debut Turner tonight.  Last game, they were without Granger, so their bench rotation was a little weird and tonight could be Vogel messing with lineups and seeing who plays well with who.  I think that's what we saw in the Bucks game, especially with that ridiculous 4th quarter that had 67 points scored in it.  With that being said, I think the 2h of this game could get weird.  A lot of unpredictable things, different lineups, etc.

If I was forced to make a play on the spread, I'd take the Lakers and the points.  Pacers have struggled against teams that run, and even though the Pacers might be up big at some point, I can see the Lakers keeping it close with a run and gun style late in the game.

I did find one thing interesting, and I'll make a play on it.  The Lakers TT for the 1h is 49.  Since the all-star break they haven't scored more than 47 pts against Houston, Boston and Brooklyn.  Now they are on the road against the best defense in the league.  It's the only real value I can find with this game. 

I will still keep going with the OH system tonight of course. 

GL tonight everyone

Pacers were the play after all.I think they still had in mind the defeat they suffered at home last year by Nash and company.

what is the OH system?

Sorry guys...

Super busy with work today, so I don't have a good writeup.

Here's the quick version.

Milwaukee sucks...Pacers big favs at home.  Pacers messing with their lineups, so I think the Pacers are unbettable for a few games til we get a feel on the rotation.  I like Turner, I think he will fit in over the long run.

Sticking with the OH system for tonight for a little bit of action.

GL on whatever you decide.

What is your opinion on why the line is so low for tonight's game? Public is pounding the Pacers of course

Swamped with work and such today, so this will be my cliffs notes write-up.

Pacers are messing with different lineups, and it's causing their defense to suffer.  Stevens is a good coach, and Boston has been playing good at home recently.  In February, they are 3-2 at home, and the Pacers have not looked like a championship team on the road the last few months.  On paper this game looks like a blowout, and it might be, but I think people are not doing their proper research to handicap this game.  I'm guessing people that don't follow the Pacers as closely as I do just see a single digit line against an inferior opponent and think "BLOWOUT...EASY MONEY".  But I think the Pacers are unbettable right now until we see a consistent rotation with consistent results. 

My best advice to bettors, as far as Pacers bets go, is to find better value on other teams and let's see what happens over the next 3-4 games.  Sometimes the best way to make money in wagering is not to lose it.  I know it's not sexy to advise people to stay away, and I know people read this thread to get picks, but IMHO the intelligent thing to do is be patient and wait for consistency.

Side Note:
If you aren't following the MMA forum on their picks, you're missing out on money.  MR219 and company are on it.  Good guys with fantastic writeups, discussion and picks.  Go look at some of the results on last nights fights.  Unbelievable how locked in some of those guys are right now.

Been tailing MR219 on your recommendation.  Good guy and good tips but missed a parlay leg that cost me a little last night!

Can you PM me the golf site?

It was the Jumabieke Tuerxun v Mark Eddiva fight.   Tuerxun lost which put me out of a couple of parlays.  

...and that's why the Pacers are currently unbettable.  I'm getting a better idea of the rotation and style though.  I'll keep doing Pacers updates and let everyone know what I see.  But i will say this...if they perfect how Turner fits in the rotation, and they stay healthy...they can beat the Heat in 6.  And before the all-star break I would've said they couldn't beat the West Champ in a 7 game series.  I like their chances better now, but need to see a bit more before I'm sold.  I'll write more the next few days.