PACERS THREAD FROM A LOCAL

Pacers at Warriors

Interesting game here.  You would think this would be a clash of styles, but the Pacers have really opened up their offense recently.  You can look at a bunch of stats, and what the stats and the eye test says is that they are letting Paul George and Lance Stephenson run the offense.  Since their stretch where they really struggled, they had a 3 day break and since then in their next 3 games Lance has had more assists that George Hill in every game.  Lance and George have also led the starters in scoring in 2 out of those 3.  They are also getting scoring from their bench.  34 points from the bench against the Clippers.  38 against the Knicks.  33 against the Kings.  A lot of that has to do with Granger, but the point is the Pacers are sending waves of scoring out of the floor. 

Warriors on paper are looking good right now.  It seems a little crazy to think that they are 12th in points allowed, 10th in points scored, 4th in rebounds, and 9th in assists yet they are only 26-16.  Seems like their record should be better.  The one number that I don't get is the rebounds.  I went back and looked, and it looks like they kill the really bad teams in rebounding, and struggle against the better teams.  They've been outrebounded in the last 5 games...Pelicans, Thunder, Nuggets, Celtics, Nets.  Not exactly the elite rebounding teams of the league.  If you go back and look at the games the Pacers struggle in, a lot if it has to do with rebounding.  If Pacers can dominate the boards, they have a great chance to win.

George Hill is now playing more of his natural role which is a SG, but he's still going to matchup against Curry, and he plays great defense.  I think he can be effective in slowing down Curry.  I'm sure Iguodala will be on Paul George, but I still give George the edge in that matchup.  I'm going to be interested to see how Klay Thompson does in matching up against Lance.  I think that's going to be the key.  If Thompson can disrupt Lance, the Warriors have a great chance to win.

Wagers for tonight.  I'm not sure what to make of these numbers.  I was really surprised to see 196 as the number...I thought it would be over 200.  I was really shocked to see the Pacers getting points.  I think that O/U number is tricky.  On Friday the Warriors/Thunder scored 248 points.  The Next night Warriors/Pelicans totaled 184.  On Jan. 2 against the Heat they combined for 237.  Two days before against Orlando...175.  Lot of inconsistency, so I'm going to stay away from the 1h totals and game totals because I'm not very sure what to expect, and I thought I would stay away from the OH system against the Western Conference.

I'm definitely going to be on the Pacers game total Over 98.  Love the new Pacers offense, and I'm not sure the Warriors are ready to slow it down.  I'm also going with Pacers +100 to win straight up.  Never thought I'd see the Pacers as underdogs to the Warriors.  I put the Warriors in the same category as the Clippers.  Fun to watch at times, can occasionally beat the good teams, but overall aren't legit contenders.  This is the first game of a 5 game West Coast swing, and the Pacers are going to want to start off strong.  They are rested and ready to rock.

GL tonight everyone

Thanks for the right up Alan. Going to take IND +105 for the win...

Interesting.  Have you looked at Indiana on the road last 6?

It probably has to do with the Warriors' ridiculously difficult road heavy schedule up to this point (most road games in the league).  And you are severely underestimating their ability on defense with Bogut and Iguodala in the lineup.  Also, I would NEVER bet against the Warriors as a home dog at Oracle.

They are 2-4. But when they went on an extended road trip (5 game stretch) they were 3-2. Before that was a 3 game stretch where they went 2-1. 12-2 for their last fourteen games. The U/O on their last six road games is 4-2. Could go either way I think like Alan noted. 

Pounded Indy TT over 49 very very large. Basically almost half my bankroll. As a Warriors homer, i can tell you that if we hold ANY team to below 49 in the 1H that it is more likely an aberration. We dont play much D early. And we give up a ton of points off turnovers. Pacers O has been surging lately. Bench has played phenomenal. To be honest I think the TT over 49 is laughable. Hey if we can stop indy from scoring 50 in the 1H good for us. However, i will pay to see it for sure. And I will pay large. That would mean the warriors who play so fast paced would have to hold Indy to 21-23 1st q to hold this under. I just dont see that happening. But like I said, I'll pay to see it. GL today fellas

I see Indy scoring 28-30 1q and 20 something in the 2nd. But the total in the 1H dropped, but they moved Pacers 1H tt to over 48.5 but juiced at 115. I think the books think Indy scores 50 but warriors have a tough time scoring. But we'll see.

I see Indy scoring 28-30 1q and 20 something in the 2nd. But the total in the 1H dropped, but they moved Pacers 1H tt to over 48.5 but juiced at 115. I think the books think Indy scores 50 but warriors have a tough time scoring. But we'll see.

Pacers are running a completely different offense than they were a week ago.  Granger wasn't even playing yet on a couple of those road games.  This is a very different team and style of play than we've seen from them.  I do look back at a lot of games, but it's tough to do that with this Pacers team right now. 

I don't know as much about the Warriors as I do about the Pacers, but I do enjoy watching them play.  I'm a Steph Curry fan.  As for the defense, I just have never bought into their consistency...more of a gut feeling when I watch them.  They held New Orleans to 87, but before that they gave up 127 to OKC, 123 to Den, 97 to Boston, 102 to Brooklyn.  Before that they played great D for 2 games, but then gave up over a hundred in 4 out of 6...it's just a very inconsistent defensive performance from game to game, and I really like what I'm seeing from the Pacers right now.  Hopefully it's a good, fun game tonight.  And you're right about their road schedule.  Out of their last 11 games, only 2 have been at home.  That's rough. 

If you're a Warriors believer, I noticed last week that they are + to win their division.  Only two games behind the Clippers.  If you like their upcoming schedule after the All-Star break it might be a decent little wager. 

I agree with you Alan, The easier play is a Pacer win, all starters are rested and the team is playing loose and having fun.  I think they can turn on the "D" when they have to. GS has played 4 not very good teams out of the last 5 games.  If the Pacers simply stay focused they'll catch GS off guard and win easily. Good luck Pacer People.

This has to be one of the most informative threads on Covers.  Thanks for the insights, Alan. 

Nice 1h hit Trey.  You're buying first round 

Had a feeling we couldn't handle Indy early. GL going forward fellas

First half went good...should've put the OH system into effect. 

Going to play Pacers TT over 47.5, and GS under 51.5 for a little bit.

Feeling good about my 2 earlier plays, so these 2h plays will be smaller.

Wow, can't believe the 1HU hit...

Still can't believe Pacers were underdogs.

I went back and looked over the Warriors home results.  After the game last night the Warriors are 12-6 at home...6-11-1 ATS.  Just wanted to bring that up for future Warriors home games.  If you really like the Warriors in a certain situation, maybe look a little deeper into the numbers and results.  Just trying to help a fellow capper make more in the future.  GL moving forward sir

I watched every minute of the game, and obviously I was trying to watch the Pacers, but I also was trying to figure out what it is I don't trust about the Warriors, and I think I figured it out, at least from my perspective.

On offense, Golden State doesn't have anyone that can go over anyone.  They all have to go around guys or be wide open.  What I mean by that is they don't have anyone that can post up and turn around and elevate over the defender.  They don't have anyone that can drive and elevate over the defense.  Most of Curry's and Thompson's drives result in pull-up jumpers.  David Lee drives and tries to get low, and then go around the defender to get to the bucket.  Bogut only scores on rebound put-backs.  Pacers last night had guys at just about every position that can get close to the defender and then elevate above them for a jump shot, lay-up, etc.  Because of this the Pacers seemed to have shots a lot closer to the basket.  Golden State shoots a ton of outside shots trying to get farther away from the defense.  If you're defending the Warriors, you just have to close the space away from the shooter, and they struggle to get a good shot off.

Look at some of the elite players.  They are guys that can elevate over a defender.  Lebron can shoot over a defender being closely guarded, or drive to the basket and elevate over.  Durant can shoot over anyone.  Duncan can go over anyone that's closely guarding him.  Paul George is getting to that level.  I just don't see a guy on Golden State that can elevate up to get a good shot off if you're playing good defense.

Last two things...I can't believe they let Jarrett Jack go.  They really messed that up.  He's sorely missed.  Also, they need to get Harrison Barnes more minutes.  If they can get him in a groove, he can be a really nice piece on that team. 

I agree with the ineffectiveness of Lee and Bogut. Really, Lee was a signing from yesteryear before this Warrior team became what it was (and the consensus at the time was that they grossly overpaid for him). They tried to make amends by giving up Monta for Bogut and we all know Bogut's shortcomings, although he's shown flashes here and there, but not enough to help get GS to a WFC or Finals.

Pacers at Suns

Had to do a ton of research on this matchup.  Have heard a lot about the Suns, but haven't had a chance to watch a lot of their play.  Found a fantastic article about what the Suns do on offense.  I encourage everyone to read it and watch the clips that go with it if you want to see the Suns offense broken down.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1891805-the-secret-weapon-behind-making-phoenix-suns-offense-click

Based on what I can find, here's what the Suns like to do.  They like to force turnovers from the perimeter, and get the ball in the hands of their guards on the fast break really quick.  They push the pace, and they are shooting a lot of shots every game which is leading to a lot of points in their games.  They got a tough break by not having Bledsoe in this matchup.  He's a phenomenal athlete and can force a lot of turnovers, but he's not going to be available tonight.  They are only 7-9 without him, and he could've been a valuable asset against the Pacers.

The Suns are very similar to the Warriors in that they love to shoot a lot of 3's.  They have been hot from the line lately, and it's not uncommon for them to shoot over 40% from 3 point land in a game.  The problem for them is the Pacers just played the Warriors, and did a really good job defending the 3.  The game plan against the Warriors should be very similar against the Suns.

The Suns also love the pick and roll.  They can destroy a slow defense on pick and rolls, and they love it when a team doesn't know how to defend it.  Problem for them is the Pacers have had a lot of success against the pick and roll.  I look back to the game the Pacers played against the Rockets (a team that lives by the high pick and roll), and the Pacers dismantled them.  Harden couldn't get going, and it turned into a blowout. 

The whole point of the pick and roll for the Suns is to allow the dribbler to get around the screen and drive into the lane to shoot inside the paint, or kick it out.  George Hill does a great job getting around the screen, and if the dribbler gets around the screen he's going to be met by the Pacers bigs.  There are no easy layups.  The Pacers also have the athletes to close out quickly on the three point shooters.  I think the Suns may have trouble running their offense.  Looking back at their schedule, the best defenses they've played recently have been the Grizzlies (twice), Bulls, San Antonio, and the Knicks are a top 10 defense as well.  The Suns have lost to all those teams.

Pacers offense.  I've listened to a couple "sports experts" talking about the Pacers, and they still haven't caught on to what the Pacers are doing on offense.  They look at the stat sheet and see Lance listed as the SG, and George Hill listed at the PG.  They are listed at those positions, but they aren't playing like those positions.  I'm going to post a different post below about what the Pacers are doing on offense right now.

I'm looking at the matchups, and the only defense it looks like the Suns will be able to play against Lance and George, is to hope they miss shots, and dominate the boards.  The Suns coaching staff has to be very nervous about trying to defend those two guys with PJ Tucker and Gerald Green.  Channing Frye guarding West is a mismatch as well, but Frye can stretch the D and should be able to get some open looks on offense.  Also, don't overlook George Hill posting up Dragic.  Hill is bigger and stronger.

Plays for tonight.
I think the Pacers team is going to surprise the Suns at first.  The Suns haven't seen a team like this, and without Bledsoe I don't see all the turnovers taking place unless the Pacers come out slow and sloppy.  Pacers have fixed their early game woes, and have been coming out of the gate strong...I think it continues.  I'm taking Pacers -3 1h, and Pacers TT over 50.  I'm also going to play Pacers TT over 100 for the game.  Pacers offense is clicking right now, and the Suns like to have a lot of possessions in their games.  I like the defensive mismatches the Pacers have...I think there will be a lot of points for the Pacers tonight.

Posting below on the new Pacers offense...don't listen to the national guys.  They have no clue what they are talking about.

To understand a little bit about the new offense, understand a little bit about where George Hill came from.  He went to high school about 15 minutes away from my house and averaged 34 points in high school.  He was a scorer first in high school and college.

Side Note:
Indianapolis went through an amazing stretch of high school talent.  Guys like Greg Oden, Mike Conley Jr., Eric Gordon, George Hill, etc were are playing around the same time.  The high school talent for about 8-10 years here was unbelievable.

When George Hill got to the NBA, they were concerned about his size as a shooting guard so they tried to convert him to a point guard.  He has a great attitude, and work ethic so he's worked hard at it, but it's not what he grew up playing.  He was a mess in the playoffs last year when an elite defender was on him, and the turnovers from the Pacers was the biggest factor in losing to the Heat.

This year, Lance has emerged as a more complete player, and he's surprised everyone with his dribbling, and passing...particularly on the fast break.  During the 3 day break last week, Vogel changed the offense to let Lance bring the ball up the court.  Now Lance has the ball on the perimeter, and you are now seeing Hill coming off screens, posting up, and shooting outside shots.

So what does that do for the Pacers offense?  Lance is 6'5" 230 lbs, and is going to be bigger than most SG's guarding him.  Now the Pacers have a physical mismatch on the perimeter from their primary ball handler.  Lance is also not scared to drive to the basket.  Hill has struggled with that as the PG.  Hill can also post up smaller guards, and hit shots if he comes off screens.  He can now do that without worrying about running an offense. 

The other thing it does is it limits what the other team can do on defense.  When the Heat played the Pacers for example, Lebron, Wade or Chalmers could easily guard Hill and cause the offense to stutter.  Chalmers can't guard Lance because he's too small.  Wade is hurt, and doesn't have the speed anymore.  Lebron could, but if he moves to guarding Lance, it leaves Paul George with a big mismatch.  The Pacers have basically said that their 2 wing players (Lance and George) are going to handle the ball, and no other team has a defense for that.

CJ Watson plays a big roll in this coming off the bench.  When they sub out, Watson jumps into the PG role, and Granger moves to the true SG role.  Watson has been playing very good recently, and if you're the other team and the Pacers sub in Granger for Lance, and Watson for Hill...the roles have now switched and the defense is hard to adjust.  Watson is now smaller and quicker than Lance, but handling the ball as the PG...Granger is now bigger and stronger than Hill, but is playing as the SG.

What we've seen recently is less costly turnovers.  Throwing the ball out of bounds is one thing, but a bad pass that results in a fast break the other way is a killer.  Those have gone down.  Offensive efficiency is up, and so is the pace.  Lance can push the ball and get to the rim, so there is now a threat from the PG to drive, and if he gets to the rim he's a big body down there.  So now he's down low with Hibbert and West...3 big guys crashing the offensive boards.

I do like how they are keeping the bigs involved.  Hibbert and West aren't the focal part of the offense, but they still get their shots when the situation presents itself. 

The other thing that works in favor of this offense is the lack of elite talent at the SG position in the NBA right now.  At the beginning of the year, the top 3 were going to be Harden, Kobe, and Wade.  Kobe's out, Wade's a physical mess...and after that the defensive talent drops off drastically (and Harden is no defensive world beater).  With the way Lance is playing right now, he's going to have the advantage most nights. 

Anyway, that's a synopsis to what the Pacers are doing.  Sometime next month the national media may catch up and figure it out.

Minimum points  scored first quarter by Pacers would be around 30?