but 20 out of 23 fitting that criteria is still pretty darn good
Good stuff...if you don't mind where did you find those stats? I looked, but couldn't find anything concrete so I was going by memory and box scores. I do like that trend, and I think I'll give it a shot. We're basically saying there's going to be at least one half where either the Pacers or their opponent are going to play good defense, or one team will have a sputtering offense. As you pointed out, 20 out of 23 games is a nice profit.
And looking at the games that both halves went over, the Pacers were on the road at high scoring western conference offenses. That makes sense. The Bulls game could just be the exception.
Great job finding that. It's one of the things I've really come to like about this thread. Sharing good information so we all come out ahead. Thanks DION
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Quote Originally Posted by diondimucci:
pacers at bulls also had both halves going over.
but 20 out of 23 fitting that criteria is still pretty darn good
Good stuff...if you don't mind where did you find those stats? I looked, but couldn't find anything concrete so I was going by memory and box scores. I do like that trend, and I think I'll give it a shot. We're basically saying there's going to be at least one half where either the Pacers or their opponent are going to play good defense, or one team will have a sputtering offense. As you pointed out, 20 out of 23 games is a nice profit.
And looking at the games that both halves went over, the Pacers were on the road at high scoring western conference offenses. That makes sense. The Bulls game could just be the exception.
Great job finding that. It's one of the things I've really come to like about this thread. Sharing good information so we all come out ahead. Thanks DION
most of this is by memory, but scoresandodds dot com will have a history of first halves for the previous 2 or 3 days or so. and also, in most cases, the 1st half is one half of the full game total plus a point.
thanks alan, lets get another massive roll going. already played under 192.5. expecting a grind it out game, which is how these teams usually play each other. the first game, was poised to stay way under, then there was a crazy end game sequence where both teams scored heaps to somehow send the game over by a couple points
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most of this is by memory, but scoresandodds dot com will have a history of first halves for the previous 2 or 3 days or so. and also, in most cases, the 1st half is one half of the full game total plus a point.
thanks alan, lets get another massive roll going. already played under 192.5. expecting a grind it out game, which is how these teams usually play each other. the first game, was poised to stay way under, then there was a crazy end game sequence where both teams scored heaps to somehow send the game over by a couple points
I went a looked at all the Pistons games, and it's really tough to find any trends or anything consistent...and I really hate wagering with/on teams that are inconsistent. Recently they won 4 in a row, then turned around and lost 4 out of 5. Last night they played good enough to push Portland to OT, but Josh Smith went 14-17 from the field. That's not going to happen 2 nights in a row especially against a good defense tonight. They are a good rebounding team so they should be able to bang inside with Hibbert and West. They've given up a lot of points recently, and they've scored a lot of points recently, but their opponents haven't been great quality.
They are coming off of an OT game last night, and here's what I've found about the Pistons in the 2nd of back to back games. They've beat a Milwaukee twice, and other than that they are pretty terrible. Got killed by Miami, lost in OT to New Orleans, lost to Atlanta, killed by Golden State. Not good, but it looks like they have been able to keep it within 6-8 pts in the 1h, so I don't see any value in the 1h spread. I actually think the value comes in the 2h. I'd like to see this game within 5-7 pts, and then take the Pacers 2h. I'm looking at the 2h of the Miami, and ATL games because I think that's the best comparison to the Pacers on the Pistons schedule. Both those teams blew the Pistons away in the 2h, and I expect the Pacers to do the same.
Going to start the "one half a game under" play tonight, so I'll take the 1h under 96.5. If it loses, I'll take the 2h under for 2 units. I believe in long term betting so I'm going to stick with this trend for a while and see how it goes. Normally I play 1-2 units per play, but I'll play it conservative in terms of how much of my bankroll I wager on each bet with this trend.
No plays right now for full game, but if I was 100% sure as to what Vogel was going to do with his rotation, I'd like to take the Pacers -10.5 Pacers off rest, Pistons off an OT game last night. The Pacers bench, normally a strength, was a disaster against Charlotte. Of course I think they fix that, but that game didn't put a lot of faith in me that they can blow a team away so I'll stay away from that number for now. Going to keep a close eye on the game, and I'll post (hopefully) a solid 2h play if the situation is right.
Side Note: I'm looking to see what the player props for this game will be. I like a couple of individual matchups against the Pistons, so hopefully they put up a good number.
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I went a looked at all the Pistons games, and it's really tough to find any trends or anything consistent...and I really hate wagering with/on teams that are inconsistent. Recently they won 4 in a row, then turned around and lost 4 out of 5. Last night they played good enough to push Portland to OT, but Josh Smith went 14-17 from the field. That's not going to happen 2 nights in a row especially against a good defense tonight. They are a good rebounding team so they should be able to bang inside with Hibbert and West. They've given up a lot of points recently, and they've scored a lot of points recently, but their opponents haven't been great quality.
They are coming off of an OT game last night, and here's what I've found about the Pistons in the 2nd of back to back games. They've beat a Milwaukee twice, and other than that they are pretty terrible. Got killed by Miami, lost in OT to New Orleans, lost to Atlanta, killed by Golden State. Not good, but it looks like they have been able to keep it within 6-8 pts in the 1h, so I don't see any value in the 1h spread. I actually think the value comes in the 2h. I'd like to see this game within 5-7 pts, and then take the Pacers 2h. I'm looking at the 2h of the Miami, and ATL games because I think that's the best comparison to the Pacers on the Pistons schedule. Both those teams blew the Pistons away in the 2h, and I expect the Pacers to do the same.
Going to start the "one half a game under" play tonight, so I'll take the 1h under 96.5. If it loses, I'll take the 2h under for 2 units. I believe in long term betting so I'm going to stick with this trend for a while and see how it goes. Normally I play 1-2 units per play, but I'll play it conservative in terms of how much of my bankroll I wager on each bet with this trend.
No plays right now for full game, but if I was 100% sure as to what Vogel was going to do with his rotation, I'd like to take the Pacers -10.5 Pacers off rest, Pistons off an OT game last night. The Pacers bench, normally a strength, was a disaster against Charlotte. Of course I think they fix that, but that game didn't put a lot of faith in me that they can blow a team away so I'll stay away from that number for now. Going to keep a close eye on the game, and I'll post (hopefully) a solid 2h play if the situation is right.
Side Note: I'm looking to see what the player props for this game will be. I like a couple of individual matchups against the Pistons, so hopefully they put up a good number.
Forgot to mention. Looks like Granger will make his debut against Houston this Friday. Absolutely no clue what the rotation will be, but I'm trying to find that out. He's healthy...he's just trying to get confidence, and a rhythm going before he plays. I think if the team needed him last week, he could've played, but at this point they can take their time.
Paul George was interviewed and said that his cuts, and movement are really good. Much better than last year. Obviously, George is going to be positive and not say that he looks awful, but all reports say Granger looks ready to go at 100%.
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Forgot to mention. Looks like Granger will make his debut against Houston this Friday. Absolutely no clue what the rotation will be, but I'm trying to find that out. He's healthy...he's just trying to get confidence, and a rhythm going before he plays. I think if the team needed him last week, he could've played, but at this point they can take their time.
Paul George was interviewed and said that his cuts, and movement are really good. Much better than last year. Obviously, George is going to be positive and not say that he looks awful, but all reports say Granger looks ready to go at 100%.
Forgot to mention. Looks like Granger will make his debut against Houston this Friday. Absolutely no clue what the rotation will be, but I'm trying to find that out. He's healthy...he's just trying to get confidence, and a rhythm going before he plays. I think if the team needed him last week, he could've played, but at this point they can take their time.
Paul George was interviewed and said that his cuts, and movement are really good. Much better than last year. Obviously, George is going to be positive and not say that he looks awful, but all reports say Granger looks ready to go at 100%.
but deep down we know PG24 is thinking, this is my team now
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Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:
Forgot to mention. Looks like Granger will make his debut against Houston this Friday. Absolutely no clue what the rotation will be, but I'm trying to find that out. He's healthy...he's just trying to get confidence, and a rhythm going before he plays. I think if the team needed him last week, he could've played, but at this point they can take their time.
Paul George was interviewed and said that his cuts, and movement are really good. Much better than last year. Obviously, George is going to be positive and not say that he looks awful, but all reports say Granger looks ready to go at 100%.
but deep down we know PG24 is thinking, this is my team now
GL today bro. I'm looking to fade your Pacers tonight. Think 10.5 is a tad bit much but it def wouldnt surprise me to see Indy dominate tonight off Det b2b OT loss.
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GL today bro. I'm looking to fade your Pacers tonight. Think 10.5 is a tad bit much but it def wouldnt surprise me to see Indy dominate tonight off Det b2b OT loss.
GL today bro. I'm looking to fade your Pacers tonight. Think 10.5 is a tad bit much but it def wouldnt surprise me to see Indy dominate tonight off Det b2b OT loss.
I do like the way the Pistons matchup against the Pacers. Their front line is no joke. It's just going to take a big time effort considering the amount of minutes these guys have been playing recently.
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Quote Originally Posted by TreyInventor:
GL today bro. I'm looking to fade your Pacers tonight. Think 10.5 is a tad bit much but it def wouldnt surprise me to see Indy dominate tonight off Det b2b OT loss.
I do like the way the Pistons matchup against the Pacers. Their front line is no joke. It's just going to take a big time effort considering the amount of minutes these guys have been playing recently.
Taking a player prop. Hibbert over 24.5 pts+reb+blocks.
Thought this line would be way higher, and I like the bigs of Detroit, but with not a lot of rest I see Hibbert getting to this total. Especially with the blocks. Hibbert is around 4-5 blocks per game...last time he had 7 against this team.
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Taking a player prop. Hibbert over 24.5 pts+reb+blocks.
Thought this line would be way higher, and I like the bigs of Detroit, but with not a lot of rest I see Hibbert getting to this total. Especially with the blocks. Hibbert is around 4-5 blocks per game...last time he had 7 against this team.
Well, the Pacers got smoked tonight...didn't deserve to win...didn't win, but in a long season there's going to be losses like this that defy description. A complete no-show from lots of players...Hibbert tops that list, and Paul George a close second going 4-14 from the field. Pacers got Josh Smith to shoot the ball 29 times, and got him to miss 16 times...yet they still let up 30 pts to him. Monroe, Drummond, and Harrellson combined for 31 rebounds..Pacers team had 40 all night. I'm not going to bang on them too bad because I understand guys have off nights, but with the talent on this team, there should only be 3-4 ridiculous losses this year that you just wipe out of memory because they are so crazy you can't take anything away from it. This is one of them. My guess is there are going to be 2-3 more this year where we are just shaking our heads wondering what went wrong.
The next game they have is Wednesday at Miami. This is the ultimate game of staying away from the line. It's going to be a complete toss-up. Matchup says Pacers should dominate inside...Miami should want revenge. Nothing would surprise me here. I watched the highlights of Miami dunking all over Utah, and it was really fun to watch. But here's my opinion of Miami and it hasn't changed since the "Big 2" and Bosh went to South Beach.
Lebron and Wade (when healthy) are going to score points. You can't stop them completely, but you can stop the supporting cast. So quickly, lets examine how good the Jazz did tonight at stopping the supporting cast. Lebron and Wade combined for 57...the supporting cast scored 60. The guys on the Heat, besides Lebron and Wade, are there to play inspired defense and hit open shots that Lebron and Wade create for them. And everyone feeds off of the momentum of fast breaks, and the home crowd cheering for them. Most teams get overwhelmed by it, but some teams can handle it...Pacers, Spurs, Thunder, Bulls etc. I think this is more of a game to watch as basketball fan rather than putting money on it. However, I do believe Miami should be the play. The big unknown will be Lebron's ankle he hurt tonight.
I do believe we may have found a good season long strategy. The "under one half" strategy cashed, and that makes it 21 out of 24 games this year. I will probably ride this one for a while, and it got me thinking that there may be other teams that a similar strategy may apply to, whether it be one half under, or one half over. Therefore, I'm going to research teams and see what I come up with. I'll be honest I'm not looking forward to going through every teams 1h, and 2h box scores, but I look at it like an hourly job. If the research takes me 4 hours, and I turn a profit, it's like being paid a nice hourly rate. I'll keep everyone updated on what I find, and see if there are any teams that may be worth this type of play.
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Well, the Pacers got smoked tonight...didn't deserve to win...didn't win, but in a long season there's going to be losses like this that defy description. A complete no-show from lots of players...Hibbert tops that list, and Paul George a close second going 4-14 from the field. Pacers got Josh Smith to shoot the ball 29 times, and got him to miss 16 times...yet they still let up 30 pts to him. Monroe, Drummond, and Harrellson combined for 31 rebounds..Pacers team had 40 all night. I'm not going to bang on them too bad because I understand guys have off nights, but with the talent on this team, there should only be 3-4 ridiculous losses this year that you just wipe out of memory because they are so crazy you can't take anything away from it. This is one of them. My guess is there are going to be 2-3 more this year where we are just shaking our heads wondering what went wrong.
The next game they have is Wednesday at Miami. This is the ultimate game of staying away from the line. It's going to be a complete toss-up. Matchup says Pacers should dominate inside...Miami should want revenge. Nothing would surprise me here. I watched the highlights of Miami dunking all over Utah, and it was really fun to watch. But here's my opinion of Miami and it hasn't changed since the "Big 2" and Bosh went to South Beach.
Lebron and Wade (when healthy) are going to score points. You can't stop them completely, but you can stop the supporting cast. So quickly, lets examine how good the Jazz did tonight at stopping the supporting cast. Lebron and Wade combined for 57...the supporting cast scored 60. The guys on the Heat, besides Lebron and Wade, are there to play inspired defense and hit open shots that Lebron and Wade create for them. And everyone feeds off of the momentum of fast breaks, and the home crowd cheering for them. Most teams get overwhelmed by it, but some teams can handle it...Pacers, Spurs, Thunder, Bulls etc. I think this is more of a game to watch as basketball fan rather than putting money on it. However, I do believe Miami should be the play. The big unknown will be Lebron's ankle he hurt tonight.
I do believe we may have found a good season long strategy. The "under one half" strategy cashed, and that makes it 21 out of 24 games this year. I will probably ride this one for a while, and it got me thinking that there may be other teams that a similar strategy may apply to, whether it be one half under, or one half over. Therefore, I'm going to research teams and see what I come up with. I'll be honest I'm not looking forward to going through every teams 1h, and 2h box scores, but I look at it like an hourly job. If the research takes me 4 hours, and I turn a profit, it's like being paid a nice hourly rate. I'll keep everyone updated on what I find, and see if there are any teams that may be worth this type of play.
I'll absolutely keep posting. It's fun for me, and we seem to have a really good thread here with lots of helpful information, and good guys with good discussion.
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Quote Originally Posted by Denwil24:
great stuff man, hope you keep posting.
I'll absolutely keep posting. It's fun for me, and we seem to have a really good thread here with lots of helpful information, and good guys with good discussion.
OK...started my research. From now on we will call it the OH strategy. It stands for One Half. The thinking is if you decide a team is an over or an under team, you take that bet the first half for 1 unit...if it hits you're done and you gain a unit. If it loses, you bet it again 2h for 2 units. I have to give a guy (I don't know who it was) who discovered this for the college bowl games. It was profitable. I discovered it for the Pacers, and this strategy has worked in 21 of 24 games if you took the under. I decided to look at all the teams and see if there was any trends. It takes a while so I went through Atlantic division (and Phoenix since someone mentioned them). I looked at the box scores and compared the lines...problem is depending on what book you use the 1h or 2h could be different, but here's what I found:
Philadelphia-21 out of 26 games had an over half. That would give a profit of 6 units.
New York Knicks-22 out of 24 games had an under half. Profit of 16 units.
Brooklyn Nets-21 out of 24 games had an under half. Profit of 9 units.
Boston Celtics-20 out of 26 games had an over half. 20 out of 26 games had an under half. Both profited +2 units.
Toronto Raptors-16 out of 22 games had an under half. Loss of -2 units. 18 out of 22 games had an over half. Profit of +6 units.
Phoenix Suns-16 out of 23 games had an under half. Loss of -5 units. 19 out of 23 games had an over half. Profit of +7 units.
Let's say we got lucky and played this strategy from the beginning of the year, and played Phoenix over OH, Toronto over OH, Boston over OH, Brooklyn under OH, NY Knicks Under OH, Philadelphia over OH. That's a profit of 46 units...just in the Atlantic division. WOW
I'm going to keep doing the teams, and see what else I can find. I'll be honest my brain is fried after going through all these box scores and lines, but if we find some teams to lean on with this trend it could be really nice.
The bummer is you have to be available to play the 2h line if the 1h loses so if you're out an about you have to pay attention. And if you're going to do this with several teams, you've really got to be on it. I think it may be worth it though. I'll post more tomorrow when I look at more teams. If anyone else wants to volunteer to do a division, that'd be great .
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OK...started my research. From now on we will call it the OH strategy. It stands for One Half. The thinking is if you decide a team is an over or an under team, you take that bet the first half for 1 unit...if it hits you're done and you gain a unit. If it loses, you bet it again 2h for 2 units. I have to give a guy (I don't know who it was) who discovered this for the college bowl games. It was profitable. I discovered it for the Pacers, and this strategy has worked in 21 of 24 games if you took the under. I decided to look at all the teams and see if there was any trends. It takes a while so I went through Atlantic division (and Phoenix since someone mentioned them). I looked at the box scores and compared the lines...problem is depending on what book you use the 1h or 2h could be different, but here's what I found:
Philadelphia-21 out of 26 games had an over half. That would give a profit of 6 units.
New York Knicks-22 out of 24 games had an under half. Profit of 16 units.
Brooklyn Nets-21 out of 24 games had an under half. Profit of 9 units.
Boston Celtics-20 out of 26 games had an over half. 20 out of 26 games had an under half. Both profited +2 units.
Toronto Raptors-16 out of 22 games had an under half. Loss of -2 units. 18 out of 22 games had an over half. Profit of +6 units.
Phoenix Suns-16 out of 23 games had an under half. Loss of -5 units. 19 out of 23 games had an over half. Profit of +7 units.
Let's say we got lucky and played this strategy from the beginning of the year, and played Phoenix over OH, Toronto over OH, Boston over OH, Brooklyn under OH, NY Knicks Under OH, Philadelphia over OH. That's a profit of 46 units...just in the Atlantic division. WOW
I'm going to keep doing the teams, and see what else I can find. I'll be honest my brain is fried after going through all these box scores and lines, but if we find some teams to lean on with this trend it could be really nice.
The bummer is you have to be available to play the 2h line if the 1h loses so if you're out an about you have to pay attention. And if you're going to do this with several teams, you've really got to be on it. I think it may be worth it though. I'll post more tomorrow when I look at more teams. If anyone else wants to volunteer to do a division, that'd be great .
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