Posted:
#301
I think Heat will have REAL problems with the Pacers all year, they just can't matchup with Hibbert and West. Very good team you got here, keep up the winning. 
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PACERS THREAD FROM A LOCAL
Posted:
#305
Quote Originally Posted by diondimucci:
if indy wants to really prove how tough they are, i want to see them hold charlotte under 60 points.
gl hope the mechanic doesnt charge u an arm and a leg
if indy wants to really prove how tough they are, i want to see them hold charlotte under 60 points.
gl hope the mechanic doesnt charge u an arm and a leg
It was one of the most odd car trouble experiences ever. It was just a serpentine belt (an easy fix), but my car broke down in the worse part of town. I spend an hour fending off crackheads, alchy's, and homeless people. I watched a guy hit another guy over the head with a beer bottle...i had to run for cover when a different guy opened fire at a house about 200 yds away from me...I had to jump in the car to get away from a random pit bull who ran at me...and I helped a strung out dude zip up his jacket with my wrench because his zipper was broke. It was like an urban version of Survivor. But enough about my surreal day...onto the game!!!
This game on paper looks like a blowout, and certainly there's a massive difference in talent and coaching. However, let's keep things in perspective and look at the numbers and situation. Pacers just played their toughest stretch of the season...long west coast trip with back to backs...come home for one day and play Miami. They went 4-2 in that stretch which is fantastic. This could be a classic spot for a letdown game, but I don't think this team has many predictable letdown spots. They are focused, and the veterans are on point this year. I don't think there's much value on the Bobcats +12...I think it's Pacers -12 or nothing.
It may not surprise a lot of people to find out that the Pacers are the best team in Points Allowed per game in the Eastern Conference, but the Bobcats are actually 2nd allowing 92.4 pts a game. The Pacers are great on D at home, so I'm going to take the 1h under. I'm also going to take a little bit of a surprise here and take the Pacers TT under 98. In the last 10 games the Bobcats have allowed only 1 team (GS Warriors) to score over 98. Obviously I expect a Pacers win, and if they are up big they aren't a team to run up the score. Plus the subs come in and they aren't the pure scorers like the starters.
The total for the game is at 183.5 right now, but that number scares me. If the Pacers starters go out, and they run the second unit out for a long period of time (Scola, Watson, and Copeland in particular), these guys are not good defenders by any stretch. I've watched them get torched a lot, and that's specifically why Copeland doesn't play much. If this second unit comes in, the Bobcats could get a lot of junk points. It's another reason why I'm staying away from the Bobcats TT.
I'll be out and about tonight, but I'll be able to keep an eye on the game...hopefully I can find a good 2h play. GL tonight gents
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Posted:
#308
Quote Originally Posted by Cmcmahan:
My book currently has pacers +195 to win the east with heat -120
My book currently has pacers +195 to win the east with heat -120
Alan u think this is the year the pacers can get past the heat in the playoffs? I know regular season heat can be 2 different teams
Sorry man...didn't see this until just now. Here are my feelings and experiences on these types of future bets, especially in the NBA.
In a short answer, no I wouldn't take that. Currently I don't have any Pacers futures. Here's why.
I don't think there is much value in these future bets because these bets are just one injury away from being worthless. Chicago Bulls being a perfect example. Lot of people liked them to win the East this year...now those tickets are basically junk. Especially in the NBA where one injury can completely change a team. In baseball, football, etc one injury doesn't kill your team, but it can.
It's too far out to make a bet on the winner of the East at +195 because there's too much that can happen between now and then. That being said, if everyone is healthy for the Pacers, I do think they win the East. The Heat just don't have the horses inside, and quite honestly I think they are way too dependent on Lebron this year. Even when Wade plays, he's not as fast as he used to be. Can't and doesn't get all the calls he's gotten in years past.
So here's what I've done in years past and had success with. When looking at futures, instead of looking at who you think will win...look at it if everyone is healthy...and then figure out who WON'T win...and take that. For example, books sometimes will post something like Pacers to win East +300...Field -360. What I do is look for the right situation where there's no way a team can win that situation, and then I lay the heavy juice and collect my money at the end of the year.
Example this year. I'm a big NASCAR and F1 bettor. 5Dimes posted a line about 6 weeks before the NASCAR Playoffs (The Chase) on a driver Aric Almiola to make chase +400...to not make chase -420.
He's not a good driver, he's not in a good car, but he had a couple of lucky finishes, but there was no way he was going to make the Chase. So I made the biggest bet of my life laying -420, and even though it was a ton of juice, it won and it wasn't even close.
I do this in all sports...look for a team (or driver/individual) who we all know isn't going to win their division, win their conference, make the playoffs, etc...see if one of them wins a couple of lucky games, plays better than they really are, etc...watch for a line and then take them to not make it.
I've lost too many futures betting on teams/guys to make playoffs, win divisions, etc only to have an injury, a losing streak or something else pop up to kill that bet. I think it's easier to predict who WON'T win it all rather than who WILL win it all.
There will be 8 teams in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Only 1 will move on. Instead of laying +195 on one team and hoping they stay healthy, I'd keep that money in your bankroll and look for better value.
Come playoff time, I'll have no problem laying -850 on the Hawks to not win the East. Lay $850 on that, wait 6 weeks and it's the easiest $100 you'll ever make.
I have no clue if other bettors do this, but it's just been my personal experience. The juice can be pretty scary to lay, but I've gotten used to it. Out of all the bets I've made in this style, I have yet to lose one. I'm sure it will happen, but by then I will still be way ahead. It's not for everyone, but it's something I do on occasion. I would say over the course of 12 months, I do 6-9 of these bets a year like that. Hope this helps sir!
0
Posted:
#310
I'm with you on the 1H under. I agree that the Bobcat's D is being overlooked by most gamblers, plus we have seen the Pacers come out slow against insuperior opponents. And like you said this could be a potential let down spot. I'm also taking 1H Bobcats +7. If you think the score stays under can you see the Pacers getting a 7 point lead?
Great thread man. The best on Covers in my opinion. Keep it up!
BOL
0
Posted:
#311
Quote Originally Posted by mkwilliams94:
I'm with you on the 1H under. I agree that the Bobcat's D is being overlooked by most gamblers, plus we have seen the Pacers come out slow against insuperior opponents. And like you said this could be a potential let down spot. I'm also taking 1H Bobcats +7. If you think the score stays under can you see the Pacers getting a 7 point lead?
I'm with you on the 1H under. I agree that the Bobcat's D is being overlooked by most gamblers, plus we have seen the Pacers come out slow against insuperior opponents. And like you said this could be a potential let down spot. I'm also taking 1H Bobcats +7. If you think the score stays under can you see the Pacers getting a 7 point lead?
Great thread man. The best on Covers in my opinion. Keep it up!
BOL
Thanks for the kind words...much appreciated!
Before the west coast trip, the Pacers struggled in the 1h...then they got better...but struggled against Miami. I agree it's tough to get that type of lead if there's not a lot of points being scored, but this Pacers D against this Bobcats offense is a complete mismatch. What makes the Pacers slow starts so odd is that there is absolutely no reason or explanation for it. That being said, I don't see how anyone can take the Pacers -7 for the 1h based on history...so I think you're right. The play is Bobcats +7 or nothing.
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Posted:
#314
Quote Originally Posted by TreyInventor:
Wow what a day for you bro. Cant tell if you are being sarcastic or not tho about the shootings and all of that. Thats crazy lol good luck tonight. Im tailing the first half under
Wow what a day for you bro. Cant tell if you are being sarcastic or not tho about the shootings and all of that. Thats crazy lol good luck tonight. Im tailing the first half under
Not one word of that story is made up. Bullets, junkies...even the part about fixing the guys jacket with my wrench. One of the most bizarre days I've ever been a part of. Glad it's over, but at least it made for some funny memories, and a funny story at the bars.
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Posted:
#315
Love this thread...Check it out every time the Pacers play.
I've picked up a few units tailing your advice, thanks.
Tonight you've said you are on the Bobcats 1h +7 or nothing
and pacers -12 for the game or nothing. Are you playing both??
I use a local and he doesn't play halves.
Thanks again,
BWD
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Posted:
#319
Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:
Sorry man...didn't see this until just now. Here are my feelings and experiences on these types of future bets, especially in the NBA.
In a short answer, no I wouldn't take that. Currently I don't have any Pacers futures. Here's why.
I don't think there is much value in these future bets because these bets are just one injury away from being worthless. Chicago Bulls being a perfect example. Lot of people liked them to win the East this year...now those tickets are basically junk. Especially in the NBA where one injury can completely change a team. In baseball, football, etc one injury doesn't kill your team, but it can.
It's too far out to make a bet on the winner of the East at +195 because there's too much that can happen between now and then. That being said, if everyone is healthy for the Pacers, I do think they win the East. The Heat just don't have the horses inside, and quite honestly I think they are way too dependent on Lebron this year. Even when Wade plays, he's not as fast as he used to be. Can't and doesn't get all the calls he's gotten in years past.
So here's what I've done in years past and had success with. When looking at futures, instead of looking at who you think will win...look at it if everyone is healthy...and then figure out who WON'T win...and take that. For example, books sometimes will post something like Pacers to win East +300...Field -360. What I do is look for the right situation where there's no way a team can win that situation, and then I lay the heavy juice and collect my money at the end of the year.
Example this year. I'm a big NASCAR and F1 bettor. 5Dimes posted a line about 6 weeks before the NASCAR Playoffs (The Chase) on a driver Aric Almiola to make chase +400...to not make chase -420.
He's not a good driver, he's not in a good car, but he had a couple of lucky finishes, but there was no way he was going to make the Chase. So I made the biggest bet of my life laying -420, and even though it was a ton of juice, it won and it wasn't even close.
I do this in all sports...look for a team (or driver/individual) who we all know isn't going to win their division, win their conference, make the playoffs, etc...see if one of them wins a couple of lucky games, plays better than they really are, etc...watch for a line and then take them to not make it.
I've lost too many futures betting on teams/guys to make playoffs, win divisions, etc only to have an injury, a losing streak or something else pop up to kill that bet. I think it's easier to predict who WON'T win it all rather than who WILL win it all.
There will be 8 teams in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Only 1 will move on. Instead of laying +195 on one team and hoping they stay healthy, I'd keep that money in your bankroll and look for better value.
Come playoff time, I'll have no problem laying -850 on the Hawks to not win the East. Lay $850 on that, wait 6 weeks and it's the easiest $100 you'll ever make.
I have no clue if other bettors do this, but it's just been my personal experience. The juice can be pretty scary to lay, but I've gotten used to it. Out of all the bets I've made in this style, I have yet to lose one. I'm sure it will happen, but by then I will still be way ahead. It's not for everyone, but it's something I do on occasion. I would say over the course of 12 months, I do 6-9 of these bets a year like that. Hope this helps sir!
Sorry man...didn't see this until just now. Here are my feelings and experiences on these types of future bets, especially in the NBA.
In a short answer, no I wouldn't take that. Currently I don't have any Pacers futures. Here's why.
I don't think there is much value in these future bets because these bets are just one injury away from being worthless. Chicago Bulls being a perfect example. Lot of people liked them to win the East this year...now those tickets are basically junk. Especially in the NBA where one injury can completely change a team. In baseball, football, etc one injury doesn't kill your team, but it can.
It's too far out to make a bet on the winner of the East at +195 because there's too much that can happen between now and then. That being said, if everyone is healthy for the Pacers, I do think they win the East. The Heat just don't have the horses inside, and quite honestly I think they are way too dependent on Lebron this year. Even when Wade plays, he's not as fast as he used to be. Can't and doesn't get all the calls he's gotten in years past.
So here's what I've done in years past and had success with. When looking at futures, instead of looking at who you think will win...look at it if everyone is healthy...and then figure out who WON'T win...and take that. For example, books sometimes will post something like Pacers to win East +300...Field -360. What I do is look for the right situation where there's no way a team can win that situation, and then I lay the heavy juice and collect my money at the end of the year.
Example this year. I'm a big NASCAR and F1 bettor. 5Dimes posted a line about 6 weeks before the NASCAR Playoffs (The Chase) on a driver Aric Almiola to make chase +400...to not make chase -420.
He's not a good driver, he's not in a good car, but he had a couple of lucky finishes, but there was no way he was going to make the Chase. So I made the biggest bet of my life laying -420, and even though it was a ton of juice, it won and it wasn't even close.
I do this in all sports...look for a team (or driver/individual) who we all know isn't going to win their division, win their conference, make the playoffs, etc...see if one of them wins a couple of lucky games, plays better than they really are, etc...watch for a line and then take them to not make it.
I've lost too many futures betting on teams/guys to make playoffs, win divisions, etc only to have an injury, a losing streak or something else pop up to kill that bet. I think it's easier to predict who WON'T win it all rather than who WILL win it all.
There will be 8 teams in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Only 1 will move on. Instead of laying +195 on one team and hoping they stay healthy, I'd keep that money in your bankroll and look for better value.
Come playoff time, I'll have no problem laying -850 on the Hawks to not win the East. Lay $850 on that, wait 6 weeks and it's the easiest $100 you'll ever make.
I have no clue if other bettors do this, but it's just been my personal experience. The juice can be pretty scary to lay, but I've gotten used to it. Out of all the bets I've made in this style, I have yet to lose one. I'm sure it will happen, but by then I will still be way ahead. It's not for everyone, but it's something I do on occasion. I would say over the course of 12 months, I do 6-9 of these bets a year like that. Hope this helps sir!
Wow I've never actually thought of futures like this before. But it makes a lot of sense. Thanks a ton for opening my eyes to this method. Do u usually place these bets when playoffs are about to start for a sport or throughout the year? And keep me updated if u don't mind on any futures u will be playing
0
Posted:
#321
alan i have a question along those lines.
last year, week 17 of the nfl season, your indianapolis colts knocked the houston texans out of the number 1 seed in the early game that deciding sunday.
therefore, in the later games, denver and new england were taking on kansas city and miami in must win games to clinch the top 2 seeds, which are, of course highly prized. the spread on the denver game was -17, but the money line on the game was -1700.
my question is, do u suppose there are people who would put down enormous sums like 1.7 million to win 100k on denver moneyline in that example. in that game, there was absolutely no way kansas city was going to win. the final score was 38-3, and i think kansas city was lucky to score 3. their offense was really that bad last year. as u were alluding to in your future wagering methods, they couldnt set a line high enough. there would have been a better chance of georgia baptist community college beating florida state in college football game. the difference to ur futures bets are that , im sure its easier to get down substantial sums on nfl games than there are futures. and this one was as sure as they come.
having said that, i would probably never make a wager like this
last year, week 17 of the nfl season, your indianapolis colts knocked the houston texans out of the number 1 seed in the early game that deciding sunday.
therefore, in the later games, denver and new england were taking on kansas city and miami in must win games to clinch the top 2 seeds, which are, of course highly prized. the spread on the denver game was -17, but the money line on the game was -1700.
my question is, do u suppose there are people who would put down enormous sums like 1.7 million to win 100k on denver moneyline in that example. in that game, there was absolutely no way kansas city was going to win. the final score was 38-3, and i think kansas city was lucky to score 3. their offense was really that bad last year. as u were alluding to in your future wagering methods, they couldnt set a line high enough. there would have been a better chance of georgia baptist community college beating florida state in college football game. the difference to ur futures bets are that , im sure its easier to get down substantial sums on nfl games than there are futures. and this one was as sure as they come.
having said that, i would probably never make a wager like this
0
Posted:
#322
Quote Originally Posted by diondimucci:
alan i have a question along those lines.
last year, week 17 of the nfl season, your indianapolis colts knocked the houston texans out of the number 1 seed in the early game that deciding sunday.
therefore, in the later games, denver and new england were taking on kansas city and miami in must win games to clinch the top 2 seeds, which are, of course highly prized. the spread on the denver game was -17, but the money line on the game was -1700.
my question is, do u suppose there are people who would put down enormous sums like 1.7 million to win 100k on denver moneyline in that example. in that game, there was absolutely no way kansas city was going to win. the final score was 38-3, and i think kansas city was lucky to score 3. their offense was really that bad last year. as u were alluding to in your future wagering methods, they couldnt set a line high enough. there would have been a better chance of georgia baptist community college beating florida state in college football game. the difference to ur futures bets are that , im sure its easier to get down substantial sums on nfl games than there are futures. and this one was as sure as they come.
having said that, i would probably never make a wager like this
alan i have a question along those lines.
last year, week 17 of the nfl season, your indianapolis colts knocked the houston texans out of the number 1 seed in the early game that deciding sunday.
therefore, in the later games, denver and new england were taking on kansas city and miami in must win games to clinch the top 2 seeds, which are, of course highly prized. the spread on the denver game was -17, but the money line on the game was -1700.
my question is, do u suppose there are people who would put down enormous sums like 1.7 million to win 100k on denver moneyline in that example. in that game, there was absolutely no way kansas city was going to win. the final score was 38-3, and i think kansas city was lucky to score 3. their offense was really that bad last year. as u were alluding to in your future wagering methods, they couldnt set a line high enough. there would have been a better chance of georgia baptist community college beating florida state in college football game. the difference to ur futures bets are that , im sure its easier to get down substantial sums on nfl games than there are futures. and this one was as sure as they come.
having said that, i would probably never make a wager like this
I'm 100% sure that people do this, but that's a massive amount of money...not sure if there are many places to lay that big of a bet, but that's the idea. However, it's tough to do in a 1 game scenario, and I don't do it for 1 games. I only do it on futures and 7 game series. Perfect example was the Thursday night game. No way Denver was going to lose...however, San Diego has a great game plan, Peyton was off and it's not impossible to upset a team in 1 game. Every year I play the futures in the NBA playoffs. People look at the odds for the 1-8 matchup and think the odds are ridiculous, so they look at the 4-5 matchup and try and make a tough bet. My theory is lay the juice and take the sure thing. Right now the Heat would play a Derrick Rose-less Bulls, and the Pacers would play the Wizards in the first round. I'll be happy to put a big chunk on the Pacers to win that series. In a 7 game series there's pretty much no major upsets. The better team prevails. Why not just take the sure thing?
0
Posted:
#323
Thought I'd do a little do write up on last nights disaster. I totally swung and missed. Probably should've stayed away based on the day I had.
Pacers said that they are letting Rasual Butler take over Orlando Johnson's spot in the rotation. And last night he played a bunch. Granger is practicing, but is still rusty...I'm guessing he's going to be out another week before he starts playing real minutes.
I can't believe that first half last night. Awful defense from 2 good defenses. I guess it happens from time to time, but that came out of nowhere.
I discovered an interesting trend going over their games. I can't find the history of what the individual half totals were, but it looks like in every Pacers game this year at least 1 half has gone under. I know someone discovered this trend for College Bowl games last year. Take the under in the first half for 1 unit. If it hits, great. If it misses bet 2 units the second half. I think last year in the College Bowl games it came out 10 units ahead or something like that. Looks like if we would've done this at the beginning of the year this trend would be way in the plus money. I may experiment with this trend moving forward. Next game is Monday at Detroit.
Pacers said that they are letting Rasual Butler take over Orlando Johnson's spot in the rotation. And last night he played a bunch. Granger is practicing, but is still rusty...I'm guessing he's going to be out another week before he starts playing real minutes.
I can't believe that first half last night. Awful defense from 2 good defenses. I guess it happens from time to time, but that came out of nowhere.
I discovered an interesting trend going over their games. I can't find the history of what the individual half totals were, but it looks like in every Pacers game this year at least 1 half has gone under. I know someone discovered this trend for College Bowl games last year. Take the under in the first half for 1 unit. If it hits, great. If it misses bet 2 units the second half. I think last year in the College Bowl games it came out 10 units ahead or something like that. Looks like if we would've done this at the beginning of the year this trend would be way in the plus money. I may experiment with this trend moving forward. Next game is Monday at Detroit.
0
Posted:
#324
Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:
Thought I'd do a little do write up on last nights disaster. I totally swung and missed. Probably should've stayed away based on the day I had.
Pacers said that they are letting Rasual Butler take over Orlando Johnson's spot in the rotation. And last night he played a bunch. Granger is practicing, but is still rusty...I'm guessing he's going to be out another week before he starts playing real minutes.
I can't believe that first half last night. Awful defense from 2 good defenses. I guess it happens from time to time, but that came out of nowhere.
I discovered an interesting trend going over their games. I can't find the history of what the individual half totals were, but it looks like in every Pacers game this year at least 1 half has gone under. I know someone discovered this trend for College Bowl games last year. Take the under in the first half for 1 unit. If it hits, great. If it misses bet 2 units the second half. I think last year in the College Bowl games it came out 10 units ahead or something like that. Looks like if we would've done this at the beginning of the year this trend would be way in the plus money. I may experiment with this trend moving forward. Next game is Monday at Detroit.
Thought I'd do a little do write up on last nights disaster. I totally swung and missed. Probably should've stayed away based on the day I had.
Pacers said that they are letting Rasual Butler take over Orlando Johnson's spot in the rotation. And last night he played a bunch. Granger is practicing, but is still rusty...I'm guessing he's going to be out another week before he starts playing real minutes.
I can't believe that first half last night. Awful defense from 2 good defenses. I guess it happens from time to time, but that came out of nowhere.
I discovered an interesting trend going over their games. I can't find the history of what the individual half totals were, but it looks like in every Pacers game this year at least 1 half has gone under. I know someone discovered this trend for College Bowl games last year. Take the under in the first half for 1 unit. If it hits, great. If it misses bet 2 units the second half. I think last year in the College Bowl games it came out 10 units ahead or something like that. Looks like if we would've done this at the beginning of the year this trend would be way in the plus money. I may experiment with this trend moving forward. Next game is Monday at Detroit.
not true, alan, theres at least 2 games ive found that had both halves go over. the game at the spurs and the game at the clippers. for the pacers home games, this might apply
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