Wow that's some great finds. Could really be something to lean on.
Couple questions: are u using the site MoreGeezer referred to for the information? Or a different one?
And do u think it would be worth it (for some teams who consistently hit a certain side) to continue the chase with 4 units the following game instead of starting over after a 1 and then 2 unit loss if the OH trend doesn't hit for a full game? Or is this too risky?
And what was the trend for college bowl games? Choosing the under for each half (until it hits then stopping) for each game?
I may have time to help out if I get some free time later in the week
Thanks for all the hard work. Makin money ain't always easy
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Wow that's some great finds. Could really be something to lean on.
Couple questions: are u using the site MoreGeezer referred to for the information? Or a different one?
And do u think it would be worth it (for some teams who consistently hit a certain side) to continue the chase with 4 units the following game instead of starting over after a 1 and then 2 unit loss if the OH trend doesn't hit for a full game? Or is this too risky?
And what was the trend for college bowl games? Choosing the under for each half (until it hits then stopping) for each game?
I may have time to help out if I get some free time later in the week
Thanks for all the hard work. Makin money ain't always easy
Great analysis. Problem is how do you know the Knicks were going to be an under play. If you chose to play them on the over then you would probably be down a lot.
Also books would probably adapt at some stage and the opposite play will probably start hotting more often
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Great analysis. Problem is how do you know the Knicks were going to be an under play. If you chose to play them on the over then you would probably be down a lot.
Also books would probably adapt at some stage and the opposite play will probably start hotting more often
Great analysis. Problem is how do you know the Knicks were going to be an under play. If you chose to play them on the over then you would probably be down a lot.
Also books would probably adapt at some stage and the opposite play will probably start hotting more often
I used oddsshark and just compared the totals to the box scores. I went and looked at if you would've chased one more half after the 2 unit hit.
Philly woul've gone from +6 to +15 Knicks would've gone from +16 to +22 Brooklyn would've gone from +9 to +12 Boston would've gone from +2 to +6 Toronto would've gone from +6 to +10 Phoenix would've gone from +7 to +4
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Quote Originally Posted by Tigers2013:
Great analysis. Problem is how do you know the Knicks were going to be an under play. If you chose to play them on the over then you would probably be down a lot.
Also books would probably adapt at some stage and the opposite play will probably start hotting more often
I used oddsshark and just compared the totals to the box scores. I went and looked at if you would've chased one more half after the 2 unit hit.
Philly woul've gone from +6 to +15 Knicks would've gone from +16 to +22 Brooklyn would've gone from +9 to +12 Boston would've gone from +2 to +6 Toronto would've gone from +6 to +10 Phoenix would've gone from +7 to +4
Great analysis. Problem is how do you know the Knicks were going to be an under play. If you chose to play them on the over then you would probably be down a lot.
Also books would probably adapt at some stage and the opposite play will probably start hotting more often
I agree you would've lost money if you would've picked the over, but my leans towards every team would've been correct. Before I started analyzing I would've picked Philly as an over team, Knicks an under, Brooklyn under, Toronto over, Phoenix over.
I don't know how the books would adjust to this. They are more concerned with the Total for the whole game rather than the halves, and I don't think they would adjust at all if only a few people were playing it.
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Quote Originally Posted by Tigers2013:
Great analysis. Problem is how do you know the Knicks were going to be an under play. If you chose to play them on the over then you would probably be down a lot.
Also books would probably adapt at some stage and the opposite play will probably start hotting more often
I agree you would've lost money if you would've picked the over, but my leans towards every team would've been correct. Before I started analyzing I would've picked Philly as an over team, Knicks an under, Brooklyn under, Toronto over, Phoenix over.
I don't know how the books would adjust to this. They are more concerned with the Total for the whole game rather than the halves, and I don't think they would adjust at all if only a few people were playing it.
As for the college football system, I can't remember what the total profit was. It wasn't a massive amount of money, but it was like +10 units or something like that.
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As for the college football system, I can't remember what the total profit was. It wasn't a massive amount of money, but it was like +10 units or something like that.
i dont know... winning a game means you get +1 unit. losing a game means you lose -3 units. with the juice, it means you have to be hitting way over 75% to make money...from your findings, only philly and NYk seems to fit this method.
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i dont know... winning a game means you get +1 unit. losing a game means you lose -3 units. with the juice, it means you have to be hitting way over 75% to make money...from your findings, only philly and NYk seems to fit this method.
i dont know... winning a game means you get +1 unit. losing a game means you lose -3 units. with the juice, it means you have to be hitting way over 75% to make money...from your findings, only philly and NYk seems to fit this method.
Correct. I'm not finding much value in the Pacific Division
Looking like focusing on these defensive minded or clunky eastern conference teams unders might be the only teams with value.
Pacers and Knicks are good under candidates, and Philly is the only over candidate so far.
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Quote Originally Posted by itjunkie:
i dont know... winning a game means you get +1 unit. losing a game means you lose -3 units. with the juice, it means you have to be hitting way over 75% to make money...from your findings, only philly and NYk seems to fit this method.
Correct. I'm not finding much value in the Pacific Division
Looks like they finally posted lines for the Pacers game. Heat -4 and 190 total. There's really not a ton of analysis for this game since we don't know much about Lebron's ankle. Obviously, I think he will play, but we can't say for sure how hurt he is or what the game plan is. I'm going to implement the OH system and start by taking the 1h under, but other than that I'll be staying away. I guess if you wanted to take a risk and grab the Pacers at +4 now and hope there's bad news about Lebron before game time, you might get good value if he's ruled out or if he's playing limited minutes. If you pick a side for this game GL
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Looks like they finally posted lines for the Pacers game. Heat -4 and 190 total. There's really not a ton of analysis for this game since we don't know much about Lebron's ankle. Obviously, I think he will play, but we can't say for sure how hurt he is or what the game plan is. I'm going to implement the OH system and start by taking the 1h under, but other than that I'll be staying away. I guess if you wanted to take a risk and grab the Pacers at +4 now and hope there's bad news about Lebron before game time, you might get good value if he's ruled out or if he's playing limited minutes. If you pick a side for this game GL
Bucks +1 unders Cavs negative either side Pistons +12 overs Pacers +15 unders Bulls (interesting-this one could have legs for a while) 12 games since Derrick Rose went out 11-1 +8 unders
So far the candidates are Pacers under, Bulls under, Pistons over, Knicks under, possibly Philadelphia over.
I'll probably finish the rest of the teams. Not a lot on my work schedule today, so I've got time to kill. Who knows if it will work the rest of the year, but it's interesting.
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Central Division
Bucks +1 unders Cavs negative either side Pistons +12 overs Pacers +15 unders Bulls (interesting-this one could have legs for a while) 12 games since Derrick Rose went out 11-1 +8 unders
So far the candidates are Pacers under, Bulls under, Pistons over, Knicks under, possibly Philadelphia over.
I'll probably finish the rest of the teams. Not a lot on my work schedule today, so I've got time to kill. Who knows if it will work the rest of the year, but it's interesting.
if u get some extra time alan, could u be so kind as to tell me where i might be able to find the play by play transcripts of a thrilling college football game a few years ago between georgia tech and cumberland.
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if u get some extra time alan, could u be so kind as to tell me where i might be able to find the play by play transcripts of a thrilling college football game a few years ago between georgia tech and cumberland.
Great job alan! I mentioned Phoenix since I'm usually betting on team totals in Suns games during the season... Like to watch them and their point guard is personal friend of mine.
Phoenix went over 1st half team total line 14 of last 15 times, kind of surprising no1 noticed that...
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Great job alan! I mentioned Phoenix since I'm usually betting on team totals in Suns games during the season... Like to watch them and their point guard is personal friend of mine.
Phoenix went over 1st half team total line 14 of last 15 times, kind of surprising no1 noticed that...
Great job alan! I mentioned Phoenix since I'm usually betting on team totals in Suns games during the season... Like to watch them and their point guard is personal friend of mine.
Phoenix went over 1st half team total line 14 of last 15 times, kind of surprising no1 noticed that...
LOL...I did all the stats for Phoenix's and didn't even notice that trend. Looking at it I'm only seeing 4-5 under halves in their last 8 or so games. You should do a thread for Phoenix since you know the team so well. This thread has been a lot of fun and profitable, and Widener started one for Philly that's been helpful as well.
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Quote Originally Posted by QuidProQuo:
Great job alan! I mentioned Phoenix since I'm usually betting on team totals in Suns games during the season... Like to watch them and their point guard is personal friend of mine.
Phoenix went over 1st half team total line 14 of last 15 times, kind of surprising no1 noticed that...
LOL...I did all the stats for Phoenix's and didn't even notice that trend. Looking at it I'm only seeing 4-5 under halves in their last 8 or so games. You should do a thread for Phoenix since you know the team so well. This thread has been a lot of fun and profitable, and Widener started one for Philly that's been helpful as well.
if u get some extra time alan, could u be so kind as to tell me where i might be able to find the play by play transcripts of a thrilling college football game a few years ago between georgia tech and cumberland.
LOL...I don't have the actual transcript, but I do believe over bettors were happy.
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Quote Originally Posted by diondimucci:
if u get some extra time alan, could u be so kind as to tell me where i might be able to find the play by play transcripts of a thrilling college football game a few years ago between georgia tech and cumberland.
LOL...I don't have the actual transcript, but I do believe over bettors were happy.
Quick tidbit about tonights game. Just saw an interview with Spoelstra. He said they were going to look to be more patient on offense tonight. Instead of driving to the basket and shooting, they were going to make sure they were driving, and if they didn't have a good shot they were going to bring it back out and reset. I gotta believe this helps under bettors tonight. If they are going to run the shot clock down more, the Pacers already do that so this could be hinting towards having fewer possessions for both teams.
That being said, I don't agree with Spoelstra on this. The Heat are better running the pace faster. They get momentum on turnovers, and fast breaks. I don't think the Heat want to get into a half court game with any elite team. I actually wonder if the Heat are concerned about getting tired against the Pacers. Lebron looked exhausted last game trying to run the offense and chase Paul George around. There's so much on his and Wade's shoulders (and knee...lol)...combine that with Lebron on a bad ankle, I think Spo may be worried about endurance tonight if the pace is fast. Just a thought.
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Quick tidbit about tonights game. Just saw an interview with Spoelstra. He said they were going to look to be more patient on offense tonight. Instead of driving to the basket and shooting, they were going to make sure they were driving, and if they didn't have a good shot they were going to bring it back out and reset. I gotta believe this helps under bettors tonight. If they are going to run the shot clock down more, the Pacers already do that so this could be hinting towards having fewer possessions for both teams.
That being said, I don't agree with Spoelstra on this. The Heat are better running the pace faster. They get momentum on turnovers, and fast breaks. I don't think the Heat want to get into a half court game with any elite team. I actually wonder if the Heat are concerned about getting tired against the Pacers. Lebron looked exhausted last game trying to run the offense and chase Paul George around. There's so much on his and Wade's shoulders (and knee...lol)...combine that with Lebron on a bad ankle, I think Spo may be worried about endurance tonight if the pace is fast. Just a thought.
I don't know if the Pacers really are this much better than the Heat (I know Lebron is in foul trouble), but in 1 game and 1 half with these 2 teams I just see a Pacers team that is better, and more talented top to bottom.
Nice hit on the 1h under, so I'm going to take the money and run. Not going to play the 2h because I don't know if Lebron is going to come out on fire, or if the Heat have a run in them or not, or maybe the Pacers bury them tonight. The total has already gone up from 97 to 98...If I had to make a play I'd take the under...maybe Heat TT under 52.5. If they make a run in the 3rd quarter the game could get interesting, but I don't know where the scoring is going to come from. No play from me 2h...GL if you decide on something.
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I don't know if the Pacers really are this much better than the Heat (I know Lebron is in foul trouble), but in 1 game and 1 half with these 2 teams I just see a Pacers team that is better, and more talented top to bottom.
Nice hit on the 1h under, so I'm going to take the money and run. Not going to play the 2h because I don't know if Lebron is going to come out on fire, or if the Heat have a run in them or not, or maybe the Pacers bury them tonight. The total has already gone up from 97 to 98...If I had to make a play I'd take the under...maybe Heat TT under 52.5. If they make a run in the 3rd quarter the game could get interesting, but I don't know where the scoring is going to come from. No play from me 2h...GL if you decide on something.
No opinion. Nothing would surprise me. If Miami gets down they sit Lebron and get blown out...if Miami makes a run it could be close. Better plays in other games
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No opinion. Nothing would surprise me. If Miami gets down they sit Lebron and get blown out...if Miami makes a run it could be close. Better plays in other games
. Makin money ain't always easy
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