Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Dallas is about as scary good as the Bulls are the 7th best team .
Dallas is a poor rebounding team and won't play as good the next round as they did the previous round, much like the Bulls played far better this round than last.
That's called "regression to the mean".
The ole Las Vegas adage '" No team is as good as the look when their winning nor are the as bad as they look when their losing or playing poorly , the truth lies somewhere inbetween".
Dallas is not as good as your making them out to be just like the Bulls were far better than you made them out to be.
You make the same mistake many novice players make. It's called "overreaction", to 1 game or in this case 1 series.
Dallas can be summed up by saying they played over their heads got a bit lucky and are the beneficaries of a down year for the top teams in the west, this makes them "appear scary good" to the untrained eye.
Let's take a look as why Dallas "appears" scary good.
Dirk the Mavs leading playoff scorer has hit 60% of his 3 pt atts. up from 39.3% in the regualr season. A difference of 20.7%
Terry the 2cd leading scorer has hit 50% of his 3 pt atts, up from 36.2%. A difference of 13.8%.
Peja the 3rd leading playoff scorer has hit 46.2%, up from 41.9%. A difference of 4.3 %.
Shooting 60% from 3pt land is the same as shooting 90% from 2 pt land.
Shooting 50% is the same as 75% from 2 pt land.
And since Field Goal % is the single most important stat in NBA basketball, as the team that shoots the higher % wins about 79% of all games, well........... of coarse they look scary good.
The question is, "is that a skill that's maintainable ?".
Nope, a "regression to the mean" is coming, it's not a matter of "if" but when !
And remember, the higher teams shot above their averages the harder they fall.
And when this happens the average novice bettor is dazed and confused as to why the Mavs suddenly look scary bad, how could it be!
Does that sound like Chicago when you were shocked they were shooting 60% from 3 pt land and building a big lead in a recent game ?
Can you say "regression to the mean ?
I would expect Dallas will likely advance to the finals, but they will not play anywhere near as good as past rounds and at times will look scary bad.
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