Do you like to live dangerously? Because I got a WHOPPER OF A WRITE-UP on the NUGGETS@KNICKS tonight

But what in life doesn't require risk for reward. There isn't a single line on any night that you say, "this is an automatic winner." If you knew the outcome before the game, you'd be filthy rich right now.

So why cap it? Because it involves the Knicks who are my local team. I have 'radar' teams. The lakers and kings were on my radar and it's none too long before I get back to my bread and butter in the Knicks and the Nets.

Why is this a dangerous game? Because we are trying to snap off a win with a bad team, that, and this is the key, hasn't been paying us against the spread, and, and this is also key, is on a losing streak.

When I posted the lakers to beat the celtics, the lakers had won 3 of 4 ATS even though they were on a six game losing streak. It hit and the Lakers won SU. They were already paying us tough.

When I gave out the kings over the bulls, the kings were also on a six game losing streak but had also impressive ATS. It hit and the kings won SU. They were already paying us though. 

So why is this game tricky? Because the Knicks are on a three game losing streak and are 0-3 ATS in all three. 

That means, if we take the Knicks tonight, we are essentially asking them to start an ATS streak right here or plainly, just get a win when they are struggling.

Capping the end of losing streaks both real and ATS is tough but there's one big advantage: the lines are usually pretty sweet.

Catching +1.5 here with the Knicks on their home court against a decent but not great Nuggets team allows us to concentrate on one thing: will the Knicks win? That simplifies things greatly and it allows for a very small but welcome 1.5 pt cushion as a gift.

If you are still reading, you are interested and I'll tell you why I think the Knicks will take this game.

1. Situationally, the Knicks have been in very bad spots in this 3 game losing streak.

So after Melo scored 62, they salvaged that game and the next 3 at home by going 4-3 after losing their first three.

Who was last?

The Heat at home. Why was that a bad spot?

1. Heat were in a revenge spot against the Knicks having lost the last game to them.

2. Heat got whacked by the Thunder on national TV the previous game.

3. Super Bowl was in town the next say so media spotlight was ultra-bright and that is where Lebron and the Heat shine brightest.

That was a bad game for the Knicks to continue their winning streak. They got thumped.

Who was next?

The Bucks at Milwaukee. Why was that a bad spot?

1. Knowing the Knicks, the Bucks are surprisingly game for them when they play eachother no matter how bad either is (and the Bucks are the worst). So seeing them get up for the Knicks didn't wow me.

2. The previous time out, a game I capped and posted, the Knicks needed a double OT win by 6 as 5 pt favorites to beat the Bucks, who had several chances to win at the end of each OT. They laid 8 vs. the Bucks last game. Bad line to say the least if you backed the Knicks and the Bucks won SU on a buzzer beater.

Who was next?

The Blazers. Why was that a bad spot?

1. Blazers outclass the Knicks at virtually every position outside of Melo and center so the talent is easily there to beat NY home or away.

2. Worse, the Blazers just got whacked against the Wiz the last game. The Wiz are up and coming but a team like the Blazers shouldn't get manhandled by them.

3. Worse, the Blazers were on a 4 game road losing streak and chatter started they'd have trouble on the road in the playoffs. Beat the Knicks, get a road win and silence a lot of that chatter. They did just that. 

What happened in that game? That line closed at -3 Blazers and was just big enough to prevent me from capping it.

The Knicks hung with one of the best of the west, trying their damndest to get a win after a terrible bucks loss.

They were down 11, had a furious comeback to cut it to 3 and were a missed 3 and then an open carmelo putback miss from backdooring that cover.

They lost by 4 and as expected the Blazers just barely covered what many here thought should be a higher spread.

They showed me a lot in that game. There was a refuse to lose mentality I hadn't seen in the Knicks since they beat the spurs in San Antonio. Unfortunately, it came too little to late.

No matter. Those 3 losses and non-covers have driven this line in our favor to catch the Knicks as a home dog.

Next reason to take the Knicks.

2. The schedule before the All-Star break.

Woodson is going to get fired but he can keep his job for now if heads into the All-Star break on a high note. 

Owner Jim Dolan had a private meeting with Woodson after the Blazers loss presumably to discuss his future with the team. Translation: WIN NOW OR ELSE. Tonight is the night to win. You don't think Woodson will have these guys busting their humps in practice today?

While players have publicly rebuked Woodson (Amare, Tyson, JR) he is still their coach and he has the support of the one guy that matters: Melo. That means he can still have a shot to keep his job in the short term because Melo's opinion and play matter.

4. Raymond Felton.

He's been particularly brutal these past several games and some sites are posting things like, "worst starting PG in the league?" He's also getting post-game interviews about his horrid play and he's showing obvious irritation. If we can get 12-14P and 6A out of a motivated Felton tonight against his ex team in a spot where he can silence his critics, it will be a huge bonus towards a win.

5. Knicks/Nuggets history

Believe it or not Knicks have done well against the Niggets ATS. They are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 against Denver(2 wins without Melo on the Knicks).

While they've lost three of their last 4 SU to the Nuggets (with a very close one last time out losing by 2, setting up a revenge spot for the Knicks here), they've won 3 of their last 4 AT HOME vs. the nuggets.

That one loss of the four saw Gallo score 37 (now an injured ex Knick) and Harrington drop 24 (ex Knick no longer there) to beat them by 5 in an OT thriller. Translation: Melo doesn't like losing to his ex team on his floor and shows up for these games and the players that burned them at home are not on the floor tonight.

And really, what have the Nuggets done this year that is so impressive that they should be laying points on the road after flying east? They are on a learning curve with Shaw and he's done well but they have more bumps in the road to come. They play down to their competition. The knicks are way down there. Go look at some of there losses to the dregs of the league this year and you'll see how far they play down. They even trailed at the half to the lousy bucks AT HOME in the altitude in the last game! Translation: Nothing to be intimidated by in the Nuggets.

Finally, this is not a lost season for the Knicks yet. They are 2.5 out of the 8th spot. Their goal right now is to make the playoffs. That is it. They have continually said to the press they could not only make the playoffs but win their division. 

If Woodson wants his job for now, if the Knicks want to make the playoffs, if they want to save face as a team and head into the All-Star break with some granule of hope, they have to win tonight. And we don't have to lay points in asking them too.

I could go on. Do I need to? My thumbs are tired and I think I have you convinced. 

Do you like to live dangerously? Because maybe, after all the above, this pick isn't so dangerous after all.

My pleasure.

Amen!

And even more respect to lay points on the road against an east cast team just because the three previous teams won and covered agaisnt them, with the last time having the Blazers cover by a spider's web weave.

Knicks will dip to 12 games under .500, tying their season high tonight if they lose. Tonight is a big game when OKC is next and your season worst mark stares at you. Wrong team is favored here...

Pistons are in such a mess right now, not far off from the Cavs. I would have liked a Pick'em there instead of -2 pistons. But after they got walloped by the woeful magic and they have had a few days to let that sit in and the nets are on a b2b in a letdown spot (big 3 or no big 3, a win against SA is a quality win), the nets are a tough sell for a pick tonight.

I won't be betting it though. Pistons should not be laying more than 1 here again, if not a pickem so the line annoys me.

Thank you!

On it with you. 

Sweet writeup