Originally Posted by LVTruck All right, gentlemen, let’s break this one down. First pitch is at 6:40 Pacific. I can’t find Bob anywhere, but apparently JGXX wants to suck my dick tonight, so let’s go ahead and break this game down for him. 
maybe time to pace your drinking 
The Red Sox have the more complete lineup tonight, especially through the top and middle of the order. They do not need to manufacture everything one base at a time. They have enough patience to make Barnett work, enough power to punish mistakes, and enough depth to keep pressure on him once the lineup turns over.
Oakland gets Kurtz back, and that matters, but the lineup still falls off significantly once you get beyond the main bats. Against a veteran like Sonny Gray, that lack of depth becomes a real problem
Here’s how I structured the action tonight: I’m big on Boston in the First Five and medium on the run line.
The First Five is the major position because that’s where I believe the handicap and the edge are strongest. The run line is there because, if I’m right about how this game unfolds, Boston should have a chance to separate.
Do I know what the fuck is going to happen? Of course not. But I did the work, I love the position, and I’m putting my money where I believe the edge is strongest.
Last thought Mason Barnett fk him
Under the hood, the numbers are exactly why I wanted Boston early. Barnett is carrying a 4.64 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP, while allowing a .334 expected wOBA. Opponents are producing an 89.1 mph average exit velocity, a 42% hard-hit rate, and an 8.7% barrel rate against him.
That does not mean the kid cannot pitch. His sweeper is legitimate. But the overall profile says traffic, hard contact, and opportunities for a disciplined Boston lineup… I think he gets fucking hit tonight
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