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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    Runn Differential League Snapshot... 4-27-19...

    «First Previous 567 ... 192021 Next Last»
    smacksmiter
    tinfoils
    skoonr3
    WISEGUY36
    finsterbaby
    ...
    Participants:
    Search model icon
    Views: 36947
    Posts: 523
    «First Previous 567 ... 192021 Next Last»
     
    smacksmiter
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 11, 2019 - 1:26 PM ET #101

    Seattle...43 errors in 41 games...worst fielding percentage in the league...

    Boston could still win this game...might be worth a live action wager...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Seattle...43 errors in 41 games...worst fielding percentage in the league...

    Boston could still win this game...might be worth a live action wager...

     
    smacksmiter
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 11, 2019 - 1:28 PM ET #102

    Boston +228 right now...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Boston +228 right now...

     
    tinfoils
    tinfoils
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    Posted: May. 11, 2019 - 1:54 PM ET #103

    Good luck smack!
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    Good luck smack!
     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 11, 2019 - 2:13 PM ET #104

    4-4 tie game now...

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    4-4 tie game now...

     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 11, 2019 - 10:15 PM ET #105

    Houston!!! Grand Slam!!!!

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Houston!!! Grand Slam!!!!

     
    smacksmiter
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 12, 2019 - 1:00 AM ET #106

    The system went 8-3 today...

    Overall now 69-41 after 14 days.......

    Borderlines went 3-2...take those out and you would have gone 5-1...still very nice...

    My personal likes went 4-0...but unfortunately I didn't play them in the the parlay selections which went 0-2...got to start paying playing my stuff more...lol......

    This system seems to be legit...and getting better as the season progresses...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    The system went 8-3 today...

    Overall now 69-41 after 14 days.......

    Borderlines went 3-2...take those out and you would have gone 5-1...still very nice...

    My personal likes went 4-0...but unfortunately I didn't play them in the the parlay selections which went 0-2...got to start paying playing my stuff more...lol......

    This system seems to be legit...and getting better as the season progresses...

     
    smacksmiter
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 12, 2019 - 10:59 AM ET #107

    Day 15 of the RDS (Run Differential System) dawns upon us gentlemen and the system is once again poised to smash the books...

    Every day I tell myself it can't go on like this...and then it does...jeez...

    Having a hard time believing this can go on producing above 60% for the season...

    Still a long, long way to go of course but looking back at the numbers for last year, it appears the system is progressing just as it did last year...

    Here we GOOOOOOOO!!!!

    LA Angels (+3) at Baltimore (-79)
    Boston (+18) vs Seattle (-5)
    NYM (-15) vs Miami (-91)
    T.B. Devil Rays (+63) vs NYY (+30)
    Minnesota (+53) vs Detroit (-51)
    Houston (+59) vs Texas (+7)
    St. Louis (+24) vs Pittsburgh (-39)
    Philadelphia (+34) at K.C. (-15)
    Cincinnati (+31) at S.F. (-37)
    LA Dodgers (+47) vs Washington (-19)
    Chicago Cubs (+51) vs Milwaukee (+8)

    Borderline games are...

    LA Angels
    NYM
    Cincinnati
    Boston

    Personal favorites...

    Texas/Houston OVER 10
    Philadelphia/K.C. OVER 9.5
    Atlanta/Arizona OVER 9.5
    Minnesota
    St. Louis
    Chicago Cubs

    Time to rake in some ....

    Am I hyping this too much?...lol...


    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Day 15 of the RDS (Run Differential System) dawns upon us gentlemen and the system is once again poised to smash the books...

    Every day I tell myself it can't go on like this...and then it does...jeez...

    Having a hard time believing this can go on producing above 60% for the season...

    Still a long, long way to go of course but looking back at the numbers for last year, it appears the system is progressing just as it did last year...

    Here we GOOOOOOOO!!!!

    LA Angels (+3) at Baltimore (-79)
    Boston (+18) vs Seattle (-5)
    NYM (-15) vs Miami (-91)
    T.B. Devil Rays (+63) vs NYY (+30)
    Minnesota (+53) vs Detroit (-51)
    Houston (+59) vs Texas (+7)
    St. Louis (+24) vs Pittsburgh (-39)
    Philadelphia (+34) at K.C. (-15)
    Cincinnati (+31) at S.F. (-37)
    LA Dodgers (+47) vs Washington (-19)
    Chicago Cubs (+51) vs Milwaukee (+8)

    Borderline games are...

    LA Angels
    NYM
    Cincinnati
    Boston

    Personal favorites...

    Texas/Houston OVER 10
    Philadelphia/K.C. OVER 9.5
    Atlanta/Arizona OVER 9.5
    Minnesota
    St. Louis
    Chicago Cubs

    Time to rake in some ....

    Am I hyping this too much?...lol...


     
    skoonr3
    skoonr3
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    Posted: May. 12, 2019 - 11:16 AM ET #108

    Nope on a tear so far, really appreciate the borderline list any doubt I stay away, I think the record minus the borderlines should be kept,
    your likes killin it also so far so good wowsa.....




     
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    Nope on a tear so far, really appreciate the borderline list any doubt I stay away, I think the record minus the borderlines should be kept,
    your likes killin it also so far so good wowsa.....




     
     
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: May. 12, 2019 - 11:18 AM ET #109

    Good luck today , bud       
    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    Good luck today , bud       
     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 12, 2019 - 12:08 PM ET #110

    Thank you, gentlemen!...hope to keep it up today...

    Skoonr, I have thought about tracking it but as I do regularly post it's daily record and have so many other things to track...I think it is very clear to anyone following that the record minus the borderlines is MUCH better than the regular system record...it could be up near 75%...

    It's fun to have a little mystery...

    I kind of look at it as just a little bonus to those who are following closely......



    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Thank you, gentlemen!...hope to keep it up today...

    Skoonr, I have thought about tracking it but as I do regularly post it's daily record and have so many other things to track...I think it is very clear to anyone following that the record minus the borderlines is MUCH better than the regular system record...it could be up near 75%...

    It's fun to have a little mystery...

    I kind of look at it as just a little bonus to those who are following closely......



     
    finsterbaby
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    Posted: May. 12, 2019 - 12:17 PM ET #111

    $Mack, keep up the great capping!!!
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    $Mack, keep up the great capping!!!
     
    LVTruck
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    Posted: May. 12, 2019 - 1:19 PM ET #112

    clover

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    clover

     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 12, 2019 - 1:35 PM ET #113

    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    Seattle...43 errors in 41 games...worst fielding percentage in the league...

    Boston could still win this game...might be worth a live action wager...


    Oh wait....another Seattle error leading to runs?....Did I post this yesterday>?

    It must be Groundhog day...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    Seattle...43 errors in 41 games...worst fielding percentage in the league...

    Boston could still win this game...might be worth a live action wager...


    Oh wait....another Seattle error leading to runs?....Did I post this yesterday>?

    It must be Groundhog day...

     
    haymo
    haymo
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    Posted: May. 12, 2019 - 1:36 PM ET #114

    Hey smack new to your thread, are those 11 your system plays and do you play them all! Thanks 
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    Hey smack new to your thread, are those 11 your system plays and do you play them all! Thanks 
     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 12, 2019 - 1:42 PM ET #115

    Quote Originally Posted by haymo:

    Hey smack new to your thread, are those 11 your system plays and do you play them all! Thanks 

    Post #110 talks about how the "borderline plays" modify the system to a more profitable state...

    It would be worth reading the entire thread to get the progression of the system and how it came to be what it is today...but I can understand that might be a bit of a chore...

    Basically, playing the system plays and eliminating the borderline plays has produced the most profitable returns...I don't play all of the system plays blindly...I do play most of the system plays MINUS the borderline plays...

    Best of luck!

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Quote Originally Posted by haymo:

    Hey smack new to your thread, are those 11 your system plays and do you play them all! Thanks 

    Post #110 talks about how the "borderline plays" modify the system to a more profitable state...

    It would be worth reading the entire thread to get the progression of the system and how it came to be what it is today...but I can understand that might be a bit of a chore...

    Basically, playing the system plays and eliminating the borderline plays has produced the most profitable returns...I don't play all of the system plays blindly...I do play most of the system plays MINUS the borderline plays...

    Best of luck!

     
    tinfoils
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    Posted: May. 12, 2019 - 2:53 PM ET #116

    Good luck smack!
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    Good luck smack!
     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 12, 2019 - 10:39 PM ET #117

    A very rare average day for the system going 5-5...of course, it does this after I bring the hype train...predictable..

    Overall now 74-46 after 15 days...

    Borderline plays went 1-2 so if you had NOT played them, you would have gone 4-3...yet again, better than the main system record as it is almost every day...

    My personal faves went a pedestrian 3-3......

    As some might have noted, I don't track the system units won/lost...and the system obviously usually gives favorites preference...this is another reason for the borderline plays..an effort to weed out some of the favorites like the LA Angels -160 and Cincinnati -116 today...

    On to tomorrow!...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    A very rare average day for the system going 5-5...of course, it does this after I bring the hype train...predictable..

    Overall now 74-46 after 15 days...

    Borderline plays went 1-2 so if you had NOT played them, you would have gone 4-3...yet again, better than the main system record as it is almost every day...

    My personal faves went a pedestrian 3-3......

    As some might have noted, I don't track the system units won/lost...and the system obviously usually gives favorites preference...this is another reason for the borderline plays..an effort to weed out some of the favorites like the LA Angels -160 and Cincinnati -116 today...

    On to tomorrow!...

     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 13, 2019 - 9:24 AM ET #118

    System plays for day 16...

    NYY (+36) vs Baltimore (-75)
    Philly (+39) vs Milwaukee (+5)
    Houston (+69) at Detroit (-49)
    Minnesota (+51) vs LA Angels (-1)
    Arizona (+13) vs Pittsburgh (-35)

    Borderline plays are...

    NYY
    Houston

    Best of luck today gentlemen!

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    System plays for day 16...

    NYY (+36) vs Baltimore (-75)
    Philly (+39) vs Milwaukee (+5)
    Houston (+69) at Detroit (-49)
    Minnesota (+51) vs LA Angels (-1)
    Arizona (+13) vs Pittsburgh (-35)

    Borderline plays are...

    NYY
    Houston

    Best of luck today gentlemen!

     
    StumpTownStu
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    Posted: May. 13, 2019 - 10:00 AM ET #119

    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    System plays for day 16...NYY (+36) vs Baltimore (-75)Philly (+39) vs Milwaukee (+5)Houston (+69) at Detroit (-49)Minnesota (+51) vs LA Angels (-1)Arizona (+13) vs Pittsburgh (-35)Borderline plays are...NYYHoustonBest of luck today gentlemen!

    Arizona could be a borderline too. All my leans looked the same except I had the Buckos in that game. Then I capped it down to a no play. Capped the Yanks down to a know play and switched Houston down to an under lean. Philly and Minnesota are going in as RLs, Houston will play into a parlay somehow. Also have a lean on Tribe/ChiSox under. All of my unders are always F5.

    I haven't followed your plays but I think the theory behind your system is sound. It doesn't account for Ace pitchers, are pitchers in the midst of an ace like stretch, but hey, how many of those are even left? I'm curious to see if you plan on "dropping off" older data as the season progresses. Baseball is a sport of streaks and it's a long season. And a hot may could skew your numbers in, let's say, July. Or August. BOL today.

    R.I.P. #94 MARSHAWN KNEELAND - DC4L
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    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    System plays for day 16...NYY (+36) vs Baltimore (-75)Philly (+39) vs Milwaukee (+5)Houston (+69) at Detroit (-49)Minnesota (+51) vs LA Angels (-1)Arizona (+13) vs Pittsburgh (-35)Borderline plays are...NYYHoustonBest of luck today gentlemen!

    Arizona could be a borderline too. All my leans looked the same except I had the Buckos in that game. Then I capped it down to a no play. Capped the Yanks down to a know play and switched Houston down to an under lean. Philly and Minnesota are going in as RLs, Houston will play into a parlay somehow. Also have a lean on Tribe/ChiSox under. All of my unders are always F5.

    I haven't followed your plays but I think the theory behind your system is sound. It doesn't account for Ace pitchers, are pitchers in the midst of an ace like stretch, but hey, how many of those are even left? I'm curious to see if you plan on "dropping off" older data as the season progresses. Baseball is a sport of streaks and it's a long season. And a hot may could skew your numbers in, let's say, July. Or August. BOL today.

     
    StumpTownStu
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    Posted: May. 13, 2019 - 10:24 AM ET #120

    Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu:

    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    System plays for day 16...NYY (+36) vs Baltimore (-75)Philly (+39) vs Milwaukee (+5)Houston (+69) at Detroit (-49)Minnesota (+51) vs LA Angels (-1)Arizona (+13) vs Pittsburgh (-35)Borderline plays are...NYYHoustonBest of luck today gentlemen!
    Arizona could be a borderline too. All my leans looked the same except I had the Buckos in that game. Then I capped it down to a no play. Capped the Yanks down to a know play and switched Houston down to an under lean. Philly and Minnesota are going in as RLs, Houston will play into a parlay somehow. Also have a lean on Tribe/ChiSox under. All of my unders are always F5. I haven't followed your plays but I think the theory behind your system is sound. It doesn't account for Ace pitchers, are pitchers in the midst of an ace like stretch, but hey, how many of those are even left? I'm curious to see if you plan on "dropping off" older data as the season progresses. Baseball is a sport of streaks and it's a long season. And a hot may could skew your numbers in, let's say, July. Or August. BOL today.

    Discount what I said about the Buckos. The Snakes are probably the right side based on Kingham being such a gas can but every other of my paraneters goes against them so i'm laying off.

    R.I.P. #94 MARSHAWN KNEELAND - DC4L
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    Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu:

    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    System plays for day 16...NYY (+36) vs Baltimore (-75)Philly (+39) vs Milwaukee (+5)Houston (+69) at Detroit (-49)Minnesota (+51) vs LA Angels (-1)Arizona (+13) vs Pittsburgh (-35)Borderline plays are...NYYHoustonBest of luck today gentlemen!
    Arizona could be a borderline too. All my leans looked the same except I had the Buckos in that game. Then I capped it down to a no play. Capped the Yanks down to a know play and switched Houston down to an under lean. Philly and Minnesota are going in as RLs, Houston will play into a parlay somehow. Also have a lean on Tribe/ChiSox under. All of my unders are always F5. I haven't followed your plays but I think the theory behind your system is sound. It doesn't account for Ace pitchers, are pitchers in the midst of an ace like stretch, but hey, how many of those are even left? I'm curious to see if you plan on "dropping off" older data as the season progresses. Baseball is a sport of streaks and it's a long season. And a hot may could skew your numbers in, let's say, July. Or August. BOL today.

    Discount what I said about the Buckos. The Snakes are probably the right side based on Kingham being such a gas can but every other of my paraneters goes against them so i'm laying off.

     
    WISEGUY36
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: May. 13, 2019 - 10:35 AM ET #121

    Good Luck today , bud 
    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    Good Luck today , bud 
     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 13, 2019 - 12:03 PM ET #122

    Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu:

    Arizona could be a borderline too. All my leans looked the same except I had the Buckos in that game. Then I capped it down to a no play. Capped the Yanks down to a know play and switched Houston down to an under lean. Philly and Minnesota are going in as RLs, Houston will play into a parlay somehow. Also have a lean on Tribe/ChiSox under. All of my unders are always F5.

    I haven't followed your plays but I think the theory behind your system is sound. It doesn't account for Ace pitchers, are pitchers in the midst of an ace like stretch, but hey, how many of those are even left? I'm curious to see if you plan on "dropping off" older data as the season progresses. Baseball is a sport of streaks and it's a long season. And a hot may could skew your numbers in, let's say, July. Or August. BOL today.


    Basically, the borderline play list is a pitchers analysis...who is the better pitcher...if the worse run differential team has the better pitcher then I list the system selection as borderline...

    Agreed on the streak aspect...may look at this as the season progresses...

    Good luck and thanks for the input!...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu:

    Arizona could be a borderline too. All my leans looked the same except I had the Buckos in that game. Then I capped it down to a no play. Capped the Yanks down to a know play and switched Houston down to an under lean. Philly and Minnesota are going in as RLs, Houston will play into a parlay somehow. Also have a lean on Tribe/ChiSox under. All of my unders are always F5.

    I haven't followed your plays but I think the theory behind your system is sound. It doesn't account for Ace pitchers, are pitchers in the midst of an ace like stretch, but hey, how many of those are even left? I'm curious to see if you plan on "dropping off" older data as the season progresses. Baseball is a sport of streaks and it's a long season. And a hot may could skew your numbers in, let's say, July. Or August. BOL today.


    Basically, the borderline play list is a pitchers analysis...who is the better pitcher...if the worse run differential team has the better pitcher then I list the system selection as borderline...

    Agreed on the streak aspect...may look at this as the season progresses...

    Good luck and thanks for the input!...

     
    tinfoils
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    Posted: May. 13, 2019 - 2:23 PM ET #123

    Good luck smack!
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    Good luck smack!
     
    esposito10304
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    Posted: May. 13, 2019 - 4:02 PM ET #124

    What do you thing about the rating system made by baseball-reference, based on run differential + strength of schedule ? According to this, for example, Milwaukee is slightly "better" than Philly.

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    What do you thing about the rating system made by baseball-reference, based on run differential + strength of schedule ? According to this, for example, Milwaukee is slightly "better" than Philly.

     
     
    skoonr3
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    Posted: May. 13, 2019 - 5:07 PM ET #125

    Hey Smack.... it was due, and its not like it went 2-8, there was a few bpen implosions yest (STLou wowww etc...almost made me want to backtrack how this did First5 if I had the time)...obviously most plays
    will be juicy....it would be insane daily for you to put these plays out daily and track juice.....common sense / how I play em is -1/-1.5/or 2Team parlays if there's a couple doozys -200ish....you're providing a tool, its up to us how to figure out how to minimize juice risk...



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    Hey Smack.... it was due, and its not like it went 2-8, there was a few bpen implosions yest (STLou wowww etc...almost made me want to backtrack how this did First5 if I had the time)...obviously most plays
    will be juicy....it would be insane daily for you to put these plays out daily and track juice.....common sense / how I play em is -1/-1.5/or 2Team parlays if there's a couple doozys -200ish....you're providing a tool, its up to us how to figure out how to minimize juice risk...



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