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MLB - Tuesday 5/11

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by dcd1220:

what do you see in the buccos tonight?  Its my home team and its so hard to put money on them


Morton is not nearly as bad as people think. This is just his 3rd home start and he really looked good in his last against the Cubs. He had total command and was hitting his spots.

Last year, he allowed 3 runs or less in his 17 starts and if you remove his one disastersous start last year against the Cubs where he allowed 10 runs in the first, his ERA was 3.66, which is more than respectable.

The Bucs swept the Reds at home earlier this season and there's no reason why Cueto is such a solid favorite. Cueto has been struggling on the road and he is less efficient in night games. he wont' go deep into games right now due to his high pitch counts and the Bucs pen has been decently effective this season and I don't see the Reds having much of an advantage.
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by 2211nfl:

G/H--Good job yesterday--You will prevail in the long term.

But one comment--and with all due respect.

Park the total plays for the time being----They all make perfect sense but---Your snake bitten with totals for now.

At the least consider it.



No totals today but let's do an experiment. here's what I considered. Over Tor/Bos, Over NYY/Det, over Oak/Tex, over LAD/Ariz.
 
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Posted: #28
GL  Hunter
 
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Posted: #29
 
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Posted: #30
bol game
 
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Posted: #31
Game. What you think about CWS tonight?
 
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Posted: #32

Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:



No totals today but let's do an experiment. here's what I considered. Over Tor/Bos, Over NYY/Det, over Oak/Tex, over LAD/Ariz.

Good idea--I like the word experiment for now.

 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:



Padres beat Zito twice last year at SF and have beaten him 4 of the last 6 while SF has only faced Le Blanc twice and scored 2 runs in 14 innings with a .133 average. SF is also 3-7 last 10 vs Padres.

Zito previous 2 years 9-17 at home.

LeBlanc has been equally as impressive as Zito this season. 23 1/3 IP, a 1.16 ERA and a 20:6 k:BB ratio. He has allowed 2,2,0 and 0 runs in his 4 starts. He easily keeps the Pods in this game. The Giants have no bullpen advantage and this price is not justified on Zito IMO.


I just dug into some info as well, you're right.  Thanks for this valuable information.  Good Luck today.
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by TheNean:

Game. What you think about CWS tonight?


The Sox have all kinds of problems right now and Garcia isn't the answer IMO. Their bullpen is a mess and Jenks needs to be dumped and Thornton needs to be the closer.

Slowey is starting to get things together. The line is high but still not enough for me to justify the Sox right now.
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by K4ngur13:



I just dug into some info as well, you're right.  Thanks for this valuable information.  Good Luck today.


Don't let me change your opinion. I'm freezing cold right now. More the reason you should stick to the Giants.
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by luder:

Do you think that it would be a better play to take AZ -1 rather than -1.5? It seems like I've been burned a few times by teams winning by 1, most recently your nemesis St Louis -1.5 bet several days ago.

Good luck today! 


bad idea....a dog stayed within one run the other day, doesnt mean it will happen again.

dogs lose by one run about 17% of the time. i say you take a chance on the other 83%.


 
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Posted: #37
Hey Gamehunter,

I am very surprised that you are not playing Phil RL today with roy against aaron cook and colorodo bad record and the phil. 

I thought you would be playing this play heavy for 2 units. Why not?
Money Management and discipline is the key to success in sports investing
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:



Morton is not nearly as bad as people think. This is just his 3rd home start and he really looked good in his last against the Cubs. He had total command and was hitting his spots.

Last year, he allowed 3 runs or less in his 17 starts and if you remove his one disastersous start last year against the Cubs where he allowed 10 runs in the first, his ERA was 3.66, which is more than respectable.

The Bucs swept the Reds at home earlier this season and there's no reason why Cueto is such a solid favorite. Cueto has been struggling on the road and he is less efficient in night games. he wont' go deep into games right now due to his high pitch counts and the Bucs pen has been decently effective this season and I don't see the Reds having much of an advantage.
Disagree . Mortons served up 7 HR's in 25 IP,(thats every 3.5 IP for you math majors) and the reason he doesn't give up more than 3 runs a start is cause he usually doesn't make it out of the 5th.  Like the over.  GL
 
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Posted: #39

Quote Originally Posted by VegasMaxx:

 the reason he doesn't give up more than 3 runs a start is cause he usually doesn't make it out of the 5th. 

This is true, but I have the bigger issue with saying their bullpens are close, because they're not.

 
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Posted: #40
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by TheChiefActuary:

This is true, but I have the bigger issue with saying their bullpens are close, because they're not.



You should do your research before you post.

Pirates bullpen recently:

Meek (last 12 appearances)
18 ip, 12 hits, 1 earned run 19:3 K:BB ratio and 0.50 era

Carrasco (last 7 appearances)
9 ip, 3 hits, 0 runs and 8:3 K:BB ratio, 0.00 era

Hanrahan (last 8 appearances)
8 1/3 ip, 4 hits, 1 earned run, 8:0 K:BB ratio, 1.13 era

Dotel (last 4 appearances)
5 ip, 2 hits, 1 earned run, 3 saves, 7:4 K:BB ratio. 1.80 era

Taschner (last 5 appearances)
4 2/3 ip, 3 hits, 1 earned run, 1.93 era

Lopez (last 9 appearances)
11 ip, 7 hits, 2 earned runs, 1.64 era

Total:
56 ip, 31 hits, 6 earned runs, 0.96 era

The Reds bullpen is good but the Pirates bullpen has been just as good of late.

 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by VegasMaxx:

Disagree . Mortons served up 7 HR's in 25 IP,(thats every 3.5 IP for you math majors) and the reason he doesn't give up more than 3 runs a start is cause he usually doesn't make it out of the 5th.  Like the over.  GL


I disagree with you sir. Morton has given up all 7 HR's this year on the road. PNC Park is the worst park for right handed hitters to hit HR's in the major leagues over the L3 years. Last season, Morton allowed only 3 HR's at PNC in 49 1/3 innings where he had a 3.10 era and allowed just a .253 average. To me his HR's allowed stats argue more in favor of him having a good outing at home than the bad one you are portraying. 6 of his L9 home starts were quality outings.
 
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Posted: #43
You're finding the groove again, Game. I like these, especially Fl. and Diego.

GL,
RebelTell2
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by RebelTell2:

You're finding the groove again, Game. I like these, especially Fl. and Diego.

GL,
RebelTell2


Let's hope so....it was just one winning day but thanks.
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:



I disagree with you sir. Morton has given up all 7 HR's this year on the road. PNC Park is the worst park for right handed hitters to hit HR's in the major leagues over the L3 years. Last season, Morton allowed only 3 HR's at PNC in 49 1/3 innings where he had a 3.10 era and allowed just a .253 average. To me his HR's allowed stats argue more in favor of him having a good outing at home than the bad one you are portraying. 6 of his L9 home starts were quality outings.


There is pointlessly reading stats and then there is finding out where the stats come from.

Educational Hunter. Educational it was.


 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:



I disagree with you sir. Morton has given up all 7 HR's this year on the road. PNC Park is the worst park for right handed hitters to hit HR's in the major leagues over the L3 years. Last season, Morton allowed only 3 HR's at PNC in 49 1/3 innings where he had a 3.10 era and allowed just a .253 average. To me his HR's allowed stats argue more in favor of him having a good outing at home than the bad one you are portraying. 6 of his L9 home starts were quality outings.
Cmon man...he's given up his HR's on the road because thats where he's pitched all but 7 innings this year.  I wasn't saying he's gonna get shelled I was just arguing your point thats he's better than people think and why cueto is road fav.  The reason I like the over is because he's had two decent startstime for him to regress.  Cinci 28 runs last 4 games. 
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by VegasMaxx:

Cmon man...he's given up his HR's on the road because thats where he's pitched all but 7 innings this year.  I wasn't saying he's gonna get shelled I was just arguing your point thats he's better than people think and why cueto is road fav.  The reason I like the over is because he's had two decent startstime for him to regress.  Cinci 28 runs last 4 games. 


But he's only given up 3 HR's at PNC in his career in 56 1/3 innings. That's a home run every 18.77 innings.
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:



But he's only given up 3 HR's at PNC in his career in 56 1/3 innings. That's a home run every 18.77 innings.
I didn't mean to say the only reason he's shitty is because he gives up the long ball.  Look at his last 7 starts...2QS...1-5...10.3 era, 1.85 whip(2 home starts his whip 2.0)  He aint exactly under valued.
 
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Posted: #49
BOL TONIGHT GH    LUV JAYS AGINST DICE-K
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by VegasMaxx:

I didn't mean to say the only reason he's shitty is because he gives up the long ball.  Look at his last 7 starts...2QS...1-5...10.3 era, 1.85 whip(2 home starts his whip 2.0)  He aint exactly under valued.


He definitely struggled in his first few starts this season. However, what about the fact that at PNC his ERA in his career is 3.84 over 56 1/3 innings. That's more than respectable.
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